iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

[tootalljones]

The same old cycle being played in the PM sector, but now we see that it has less ammo
1. the miners soar for 2 or 3 or 4 months, so too the metals. Nothing dramatic, like a man walking up a very long hill.
2. the financial regime puts out a PR from the FED or an agency saying that things are just chummy, and that everything is fine. There is almost no inflation. Do not believe your eyes and ears, just trust us.
3. Short read the anticipated PR from the Regime, and jump in and short the miners like crazy.
4. Miners go down as Retail reads the same PR and abandon ship.
5. Next step is that the shorts then move their bets and short the metals, Paper metals, gld and slv...and so too, retail then abandons these two vehicles....
and so gld and slv also go down.
So while when the miners and metals go up, they trudge up a hill, but for various reasons, especially retail's use of margin, when the attack comes, it is more like a fireman coming down a fireman's pole. It is sudden and it is steep.

BUT BUT BUT, THEN THEN THEN
we see that this pattern of trading seems to have less firepower.
In a bear market is returns the players back to zero, but in a PM bull, the pullbacks are not steep, nor are they long, and the recoveries take far less time, and we never go back to zero, instead, there is a stairstep pattern over any longer period of time which is up, not down. .
and this is the way this should play out of the next 3 years at least.
One of the "gimme's" of this trading cycle is that investors and retail in particular will get very long just before the attack comes, using margin........and margin is what accounts for the effectiveness of the attack, but over time, people wise up, and don't go so crazy with the margin, and consequently don't get so wiped out as the bull gains strength. .
so they get stronger, and the attacks weaken and do not last very long, and the bull wipes out the plotters as it gets stronger, and as the commercial shorts and The Regime, loses its effectiveness and more importantly, its credibility.