The environment has changed. Chevron deference doctrine is being unwound before you eyes. Watch it from the gutter if you want … or trade it for the money it will create from reigning in these agencies that have been living outside their means. Your choice.
written by seafood.com source. I don't think they speak for alaska. Alaskans will benefit from the mine just as they benefit from oil... :)
incredible, from up 10% to 0%. Will be watching closely.
Down she goes bay bay :(
I owned/own nak shares. Sold most of my holdings when trump's son told his dad to not support plan... Still hold about 20% of original holdings... Won't be adding anytime soon... Definitely not until biden is out
But there is something far more negative... Local Indian tribes forbid the use of their lands... Which are needed for roads to the site...
I dont think Alaska can use eminent domain on tribal lands... And the tribes were offered large remuneration and turned it down...
So its tribes and salmon that makes approval unlikely...
BTW, these waterways involved in epa denial are not puddles... Major waterways...rivers and bays... This is NOT what went against epa ruling elsewhere
Based on your pin, at least we all know that the governor of Alaska is fighting for the mine. Best... :)
I think they are doing all they can to prevent disrupting the salmon. I am waiting on the supreme court and army corps of engineers. Have some faith. You folks in Alaska have won. They are doing all they can to protect the salmon.
ROFLMAO, the Pebble has NOT been a easy win for 30 years too f'n funny to think now something will change.
The ONLY way this mine can satisfy the environment regulations is to BORE underground. Northern said years ago that method would be their last option so why continue the horse and pony show wasting hundreds of millions of investment dollars trying to do a surface route.
Disrupting a legitimate source of revenue for locals ie the Salmon fishery has kept this mine shuttered. There are greater forces at work here beyond the Army Corp.
Take profits before becoming a bagholder like MANY who frequent this board
Thanks Ken. I am a mechanical engineer/Software engineer. Based on my very limited expertise, everything looks to be on the up and up. No surprises. Very profitable and the environmentally friendly. Appears to be a win win for everyone.
With total gold production estimated at 7.4 million oz over 20 years, gold is projected to be a significant component of gross revenues and net smelter return (NSR) with 24% of gross revenues attributable to gold (64% attributable to copper, 10% to molybdenum, 2% to silver and 1% to rhenium). In addition, the Pebble deposit resource estimate contains more than 70 million oz gold in the measured and indicated categories and 36 million ounces in the inferred category. As such, a potential gold stream partner is a material consideration in the economic evaluation of the project. This assumption is based on historical precious metal stream transactions and market data. Based on current market conditions and the assumptions noted in this report, estimated proceeds during construction of $1.2 B from potential gold streaming partners have been included in the Base Case.
The Proposed Project would extract a small portion of the Pebble mineral resource and the 2023 PEA tests the sensitivity of extracting a greater portion of that mineral resource. An expanded open pit design was developed, and three potential expansion scenarios were defined using this expanded open pit, with the expansions defined by the year in which the expanded process would commence operation – Years 5, 10 or 21. The Year 21 case was modelled on a response to the USACE during the CWA process, in which they requested an analysis of an expanded project. The response to that request envisioned the process plant expanded from 180,000 tons per day for the Proposed Project to 250,000 tons per day. The process plant would expand to 270,000 tons per day in the Years 5 and 10 potential expansion scenarios. The 2023 PEA also tests the sensitivity of adding a secondary gold recovery plant in Year 5 to the Base Case and the potential expansion scenarios. The gold plant capacity for the Year 5 scenario would match the expansion, while for the Base Case and the other two potential expansion scenarios, the secondary gold recovery plant would be expanded with the expanded process plant. These scenarios all show enhanced financial results with the IRR ranging from 18.1% to 24.2% and the NPV from $5.5 B to $10 B.
The Project was assessed under a scenario in which the effective capital cost is reduced by engaging partners to provide primary infrastructure (access road, marine facility, natural gas pipeline, and mine site power plant) with the Pebble Project utilizing these facilities under lease. Given the latter scenario is the more likely route to development, it is defined as the Base Case. Using long-term metal price assumptions and a 20-year LOM, the Base Case has an 18.6% pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR), a 4.3-year pre-tax payback on $4.1 B initial capital, and a $3.4 B pre-tax net present value (NPV) at a 7% discount rate. For post tax, the values are 16.2% IRR, a 4.6-year payback on $4.1 B initial capital, and $2.2 B NPV at a 7% discount rate. As a sensitivity, a Full Capital Case, in which there are no infrastructure partners, was also tested and shown in Section 22.8.2.
The study area is much larger than the deposit area. This entire study area has been mapped to determine the occurrence of wetlands and to characterize baseline conditions. Overall, water bodies, wetlands and transitional wetlands represent 9,826 acres, or 33.4%, of the study area. Of the 375 water features evaluated in the overall study area, 308 (82.1%) were classified as lakes or perennial ponds, the vast majority of which were open water. The remaining 67 water features (17.9%) were classified as seasonal ponds or the drawdown areas of perennial ponds, which were evenly encountered as open water or partially vegetated/barren ground.
The Pebble deposit is located on State land that has been specifically designated for mineral exploration and development. The project area has been the subject of two comprehensive land-use planning exercises conducted by the Alaska Department of Natural Resources (ADNR); the first in the 1980s and the second completed in 2005 and subsequently revised in 2013. ADNR identified five land parcels (including Pebble) within the Bristol Bay planning area as having “significant mineral potential,” and where the planning intent is to accommodate mineral exploration and development. These parcels total 2.7% of the total planning area (ADNR, 2013).
The proposed mine site is located at an elevation of 1,000 ft above sea level. Terrain in the mine site area features rolling hills and low mountains, separated by wide shallow valleys blanketed with glacial deposits and numerous streams and small, shallow lakes.
The Pebble site receives an average of 54 in. of precipitation per year. A portion of the resulting runoff would be consumed in the process, primarily locked up in the tailing’s deposits, but the remainder, 30 ft3/s on average, must be released back to the environment. To accomplish this, the proposed project incorporates a sophisticated water management plan with water collection, treatment, and discharge. That plan requires attention to the annual and seasonal variability of the incoming flows and achieving very specific water quality standards for the released water.
QP Comment: The QP evaluated the block model by independently estimating the resources contained in the copper and gold domains on the assumption that if these outcomes were similar, it would be reasonable to assume that the molybdenum and silver estimates would be comparable. The copper and gold estimates generated by the QP were not conducted in a manner identical to the Gaunt estimate because of differences in estimation software. The estimate completed by Gaunt was carried out using Vulcan software and the mineral domains were defined using surfaces and Boolean logic to establish the limits of each domain. The QP used SGS Genesis software which uses wireframe volumes and cannot accommodate the definition of estimation volumes using surfaces. Therefore, to facilitate the comparison, Northern Dynasty provided the QP with wireframe volumes of the estimation domains as constrained by the surfaces used by Gaunt. The QP then extracted the relevant composite populations from those wireframes and carried out the estimates using the same variographic and search ellipse parameters as used by Gaunt. Despite the differences in software and estimation domains, the outcomes for total copper tonnes and grades were similar to within several percent and for gold within ten percent or less for most cutoff grades which is considered a reasonable outcome given the differences in software and methodology.
The first stage metallurgical testwork was performed by different laboratories. The testwork conducted by Vancouver-based Process Research Associates Ltd (PRA) was preliminary in nature and was followed by testwork completed by G&T Metallurgical Services Ltd. (G&T) in Kamloops, BC. Based on their test results, a comprehensive metallurgy test program was carried out at the SGS Lakefield laboratories located in Lakefield, ON (SGS Lakefield). The basic flowsheet from PRA was optimized by testing primary grind size, regrind size, flotation and gold leaching. In addition, comminution data were obtained from samples covering the bulk of the lithology and alteration combinations in the mineral resource. A few miscellaneous tests were also performed including settling and filtration and concentrates properties. The SGS Lakefield test results demonstrated that marketable concentrate over 26% copper could be obtained along with separate molybdenum concentrate. The test results also showed doré can be obtained using leaching. All these laboratory facilities are well recognized in the mining industry.
On completion of the data verification for Pebble, it is the opinion of the QP that the geological data collection, analytical methods, and QA/QC procedures used by Northern Dynasty are consistent with CIM Mineral Exploration Best Practice Guidelines.
QP Graeme Roper conducted independent verification sampling and results indicate no significant bias in the data. Northern Dynasty monitors the QA/QC samples within the sampling process and results of the CRM review showed no hard failures. Cross reference of original certificates against the database showed active monitoring and re-assaying was completed with a high standard of scrutiny. QP Graeme Roper, has reviewed the sample preparation, security and analytical procedures conducted on the Pebble Project and concludes the procedures used align with industry best practices and are deemed suitable for the purposes outlined in this technical report. It is of QP Graeme Roper’s opinion that the data and observations from the various drill programs completed on the Pebble project have been suitably verified for the purpose of estimating mineral resources and preparing an NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate.
Ken, give us your take as I read through it. Bullish or Bearish? And why?
My understanding is that the Army Corps took this into account and found that no risk to salmon is occurring. From some reports, I read that the mine is 200 miles from the salmon. Is this right Scott? Since it is your neck of the woods, please inform us of what is going on.
You are correct sir, Salmon is King in this neck of the woods despite what the newbs think will happen.
he was misinformed. This is an invasion of Alaska. The supreme court supports state rights. Someone pinned a statement that says the governor of Alaska supports the mine, as if it would hurt the chances of the stock! Hilarious. When the Army corps comes out in defense of the mines plans which they have done in the past, then it will be obvious the EPA has overstepped their bounds and we all know the governor supports the mine to help the people of Alaska -- who will benefit greatly from not only the profits; but also from the additional work. I love USA and the checks and balances it provides. Bring it! Easy win.
Remember when Trump himself said no? https://www.npr.org/2020/11/25/939002676/trump-administration-rejects-pebble-mine-project-in-alaska
I mean, if it didn’t happen then at that moment there ain’t no way it’s happening now bradda :)
should have news soon. I am holding.
Down diggy down diggy down down
Northern Dynasty sees Pebble light
Northern Dynasty Minerals is starting to see light at the end of the tunnel of the permitting process for its Pebble copper project in Alaska, US, following a couple of landmark decisions.
Market Analysts See Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. [NAK] Gaining To $2.50. Time To Buy?
I think everyone is positioned for the upcoming Army Corp report. Should be a beautiful report. Timing would be great for tomorrow.
It does not matter. The president does not have the right to block. It is up to the state of Alaska. EPA overstepped its bounds.
Trump HIMSELF said no for goodness sakes brother :)
A lot has changed this past year with approval on the local level which will benefit all parties.
I would put in a bid at $.36.
So, you think I should buy more... I am pretty heavy with my 45% gain; but I will certainly take your advice into consideration. Thanks for the recommendation, Scott!
Ive missed nothing, trading this loser for 5 years now, LONG before you ever heard of this environmental death pit
Foolish. Lots of money going into this “bogus” mine. Thanks for the congrats btw