mainly watching tdgi unfold
Spot liquidity moves with access to US order books.
Spot liquidity moves with access to US order books.
I agree with you about it being a great blog. It really clears the air and gets all the legal and financial cards out on the table. I finally have a full understanding of what has been holding Hannover House back for the last two years including how they got into the mess with Twelve, how much it cost them and that they are most of the way through the mess with all the associated legal and financial matters settled (but not fully paid for yet). To me this was major and honest disclosure going into a lot more detail than most CEOs would do. Now that the legal clouds have cleared they will have more time to focus on growing the business including launching the VOD site. Until all the legal matters were settled it was not prudent to disclose everything. They have learned a very valuable, and costly, lesson and have stopped trying to hit a grand slam, like they did with Twelve, in favor of highly profitable direct to retail DVDs without all the risk.
It looks like the couple of larger trades earlier today were by someone who just had to sell regardless of the price--too bad, they must have really needed the cash. It looks like a $3K sell-at-market order will take the pps down by over 20% but a following $150 buy order brings it back up to where it was. Someone was lucky to pick those shares up so cheap.
Since you are such a skeptic, why don't you attend the shareholder meeting announced today and ask him your questions about the audit delays and his "surrogates" selling all those shares? I had to laugh this morning when the pps tanked momentarily after the annual meeting announcement. Just another transparent attempt to manipulate the stock like after most positive PRs. Do you actually think that a reputable audit firm would continue to have their name associated with some scam company? Do you actually think that a scam company would expose themselves in person at an annual meeting? I don't think so.
What a nice day for us longs! It looks to me like someone with a few $$$ on the sidelines decided to get in. Maybe they see through the continual bashing and manipulation which happens each time HHSE makes a positive PR (except for today?) and the pps goes down. Every time I post something positive about HHSE here I get a couple of very nasty and profane private responses with a lot of misspellings thrown in--real classy. Anyway, I'm very confident that HHSE will get the audit out soon and, once and for all, demonstrate who is honest and who is lying. With having to deal with hundreds of items INDIVIDUALLY from the film library plus the tax returns for the last two years and the myriad small accounting issues that a firm like HHSE generates, it has taken a lot longer than I would have liked, but reputable accounting firms go through everything in fine detail to protect their own reputation so it takes as long as it takes.
I wish I had had money available to buy more over the last few weeks but there is still time for new investors to get in before HHSE takes off to its true value.
Yes, Eric was overoptimistic about how long it would take to get the tax returns from 2010 and 2011 revised. Yes, Eric was overoptimistic about how long it would take to break the film/book assets down on a title-by-title basis (hundreds of them). It all has to hang together to be meaningful and fit in with the financial audits. There's a big difference between lying and having plans change and unforeseen obstacles come up. Do you think a reputable audit firm like Hogan-Taylor would continue to work with a company that was putting out nothing but lies? Maybe they have more real inside information than you do. After all, they have had access to all the books for a long time now. And yet they keep working on the audit...
In the meantime, how would Eric be benefiting from lying? Has he dumped shares on the market by the millions? NO--the transfer agent is not gagged so you can check for yourself. Has he been taking a large salary from the company? NO--I'm sure H-T would have bailed by now if there was that level of dishonesty going on in the company. Has he continued to add value to the company by steadily acquiring new titles and getting them into retail giants like Wal-Mart? YES--you can actually see HHSE products on their shelves and see the occasional theatrical limited release listed in theater showtimes.
I am 100% confident that we are close to getting the long delayed audits. When that happens, will so many on this board stop finding problems to complain about and try to scare others out of this stock? NO--there is some other negative agenda working here. What else can I think when really good news always causes the stock to go down?
I agree--HHSE is doing amazingly well as a company but I guess there are some here that want to keep its share price down. What, other than manipulation, do you call it when $100 orders can take the pps down 10%--maybe someone is just trying to scare us longs into selling? They will never get any of my shares at this level. I think most longs are patient enough to wait until fully audited financials are released. When that happens anyone not owning this stock will have to pay a lot more than one cent for it!
Just speculating--the mention of Rocky Mountain Pictures could mean there is more to the agreement between HHSE and them than just this one film. This movie did well in the few theaters it was released to, but never achieved wide release--just like Toys in the Attic. The real profits will be made in the DVD market where HHSE enjoys great access to mass merchandisers like Wal-Mart.
Yes--lowering the ask is a common occurrence after a very positive PR for Hannover House. To me is just confirms that there are some out there who want to keep the pps down and keep accumulating cheap shares until HHSE gets their accounting act together (taxes and audit) and publishes them on EDGAR. After that there will be no stopping HHSE from achieving its true value.
There is virtually no "short interest" on HHSE as you can see from the link below from the OTC. Short interest is the actual number of shares currently short and is reported twice per month. Short sales, on the other hand, mainly consist of short trades made by the market makers during the daily course of business. I don't think brokerages can do short sales on pink sheet stocks anyway. Anyone would be crazy to short HHSE right now even if it was possible--too much risk of it taking off... IMHO
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/hhse/short-sales
Now that's interesting. Two guys who own a ton of stock in their own company put a huge chunk of their OWN cash into it via the loans. That's like the opposite of diluting or selling their own shares. Nobody is in a better position to know how things are going than Eric and Fred and I think they are tired of raising money to finance ventures based on today's share values. It's nice having top execs with enough personal wealth to do this so they don't have to continually suck money OUT of the company to live. It's even better than insider buying on a massive scale. Those loans would buy over a month's worth of recent average volume at today's pps. That's putting your money where your mouth is!
I understand, but those T trades would have had a huge impact on the closing price if they had been posted just a couple of minutes earlier--before the close.
I can't figure this out either. On last Friday, for example, the last few trades late in the day dropped the price drastically but then after the close a major trade brought it back up to even for the day. According to multiple web pages I have read there is no after hours trading for pinksheet stocks. This seems to have started happening soon after HHSE hired a market maker. I wonder if that doesn't have something to do with it since they have the ability to do things normal investors don't? Today's after hours trade was the biggest of the day at 528,000 shares and dropped the pps down by about 13% from the official close up of 5.84%.
HHSE is in the 1%. I read recently that a large percentage of Pinksheet/penny stocks are outright scams or pump-and-dumps and my own experience verifies this. In fact less than 1% of Pinksheet stocks ever get uplisted to a higher exchange. Based on recent news that has been a long time coming, it appears that HHSE is about to join that 1% of Pinksheet stocks that actually do file audited results and actually qualify for uplisting. It may take days to weeks for the formal EDGAR filings to be done and the uplist to occur but when it does it will have been worth the wait. It was very gratifying to read the FY-2011 reviewed results and see that they were not materially different (actually slightly better) from what we have been told all along by the company. I can't tell you how happy I will be the day HHSE says goodby to pink land and those calling HHSE a scam are forced to eat crow.
I've been in HHSE (TDGI) for over two years now and I know manipulation when I see it. Nothing else explains the many daily low volume trades (<$100) that move the pps down with some longs fighting back with small trades that move it back up. Someone really wants to keep this stock down--probably to keep accumulating shares at low prices since there is no significant short interest. The constant fighting back and forth by those who want the stock to go down and the loyal longs trying to protect their investment is enough to keep more conservative investors from buying in. All of this is happening in the light of pretty much continual good news for the short term and long term growth of the company. IMO, the stock won't be fairly valued until audits validate what the company has been saying all along and we have a real market maker in place. An uplisting to get off the pinksheets would be a big help also. In the meantime, we seem to have to live with the ongoing drama.
This is not really "news" since it has been visible for what--a couple of weeks now? My guess is that some large investors want to accumulate more cheap shares so they are shorting it down today to pick up shares from cautious investors with stop losses in place--basically get it out of the weak hands. Long term this patent will make a ton of profit for ELTP. I'm not selling any shares this cheap!
The short sales statistics are a little confusing. There are two types of reports--the semimonthly SHORT INTEREST report and the daily SHORT SALES report. SHORT SALES include all the shares that the MMs sell short (naked but legal for them) during the routine daily trading. That value tends to be a fairly significant percentage of the daily volume--check out the link below. It doesn't seem to relate well to the actual investor SHORT INTEREST. With short sales so large yesterday, even though it may have been the MM, it did bring the pps down late in the day. It may have also been some large investor trying to get the pps down in order to spook some others to sell out at a lower price. Today's open looks like someone is messing with us. Down premarket and at the open only to come right back with a couple of minutes.
http://otcshortreport.com/eltp
The SHORT INTEREST from the OTC exchange shows the true number of shorted shares and has been relatively stable for several months around the 250K to 300K range (see the link below). It only comes out twice per month so large swings in the short interest could get covered before the report is generated.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ELTP/short-sales
If I am misunderstanding something here would someone please help me out.
Thanks for the headline about massive short selling--it caused me to look it up for HHSE at the link below. Per the April 30th report on the OTC web site, short interest dropped to ZERO! Nobody in their right mind would short HHSE these days with all the positive things happening for the company.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HHSE/short-sales
There are quite a few of us "longs" that see nothing but improvements in the way Parkinson runs the company compared to two years ago after following it virtually every day. I think volume is low because it is difficult for a new larger investor to get into HHSE in a big way--buying a lot of shares all at once, say a million for example, drives the price up so quickly because those longs in the know aren't willing to sell at these levels. So, us longs just wait patiently for the audit and a possible uplisting to let more investors discover this gem and feel comfortable buying in. In the meantime we buy more when the opportunity arises.
I agree 100% with you but I think I understand something. Parkinson acted like a true pinksheet CEO a couple of years ago--over enthusiastically announcing things before they were cast in concrete, unrealistic growth plans, etc. I know he was never a pump-and-dump guy (virtually no dilution going on) but his enthusiasm and drive to be successful just got the better of him frequently. That is happening less and less these days (not entirely gone though) even though the deals are bigger and better for the long term. He is a deal-maker and that's exactly what HHSE needs at this point in their history. I'm looking at the profit margin growth and bigger deals and thinking he's come a long way.
I couldn't agree more. There's a fairly large group of us longs who found HHSE two years ago when it was really struggling to find its way--overconfident about doing large theatrical releases, overconfident about how fast it could grow, etc. Today we have a much more seasoned management team (the same people just wiser about their business plan) who have learned from their mistakes and have the company on a very profitable and fast growing trajectory. Fortunately for future investors just about to discover HHSE, there is still a lot of money to be made just getting the pps to what it deserves to be now not even counting where it will be when the projects just starting start generating revenue.
I'm not sure that most of the IHUB community is ready for a company like HHSE. HHSE is not your typical Pinksheet stock that makes huge moves based on emotion, hype and little else. Sure, we have a battle going on between the fans and the bashers and with still a relatively small market cap and number of holders the daily pps can easily be manipulated. But there are a good number of HHSE holders that have figured out that HHSE in not a typical pink but instead is a real company with real products that is doing well and will, hopefully sooner than later, get off the pinks and trade for what it is worth compared to other companies in similar businesses. What pink does anyone know of that not only has short term business going well but is planning (and has deals to show for it) significant growth for 2013 and on? I've noticed a shift in the last few months from deals that only have short term benefits to those with ongoing benefits into future years--like the Mother Goose movie for example. That's the kind of thinking and execution that will get HHSE to the next level eventually. I'm willing to wait for that day.
The Q1 numbers are exciting to me because it shows that HHSE has found a way to make almost $400K profit on much lower gross sales thanks to sticking to a business plan that doesn't require the huge up front expenses (both $$$ and manpower) that every theatrical release involves. By focusing on direct to video this year I believe we will see continually improving profits. Having said that, the occasional theatrical release (Toys in the Attic for example) on movies that have the potential to become relatively big hits gives HHSE an opportunity to get into the big leagues.
The wisdom of the direct to video business plan is demonstrated in the success of All's Faire in Love (55% of Q1 profit) compared to its poor results in theaters last year.
I'm still trying to figure out exactly what the short sale data means on a daily basis. If you look at the first link below you can get short SALE data for each day. However, if you look at the twice monthly "short INTEREST" report (second link) you see a much lower number. It was explained to me that the "short sale" report on a daily basis includes mainly the market maker shorting as part of their routine daily process. However if you want to know the true short sale interest you have to wait for the next semimonthly report. Having said that, I'm still trying to find a way to get the true short interest on a daily basis. I have noticed that the daily short sales usually track total volume at some relatively large percentage so it is something built into how the MMs work.
http://otcshortreport.com/eltp
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ELTP/short-sales
Looking at the HHSE short report is confusing! Yesterday, for example, almost half of the shares traded were shorts (see link below). This is happening while the company is announcing good news at least a couple of times a week and is already undervalued by any reasonable measure. I cannot understand why any normal investor would be shorting so much at this point unless they are trying to keep the pps down--a form of manipulation? Anyway, I am happy to see so much shorting since they will all have to be covered at some point and that will drive higher volume and great upside potential with so many "long and strongs" holding on to their shares.
http://otcshortreport.com/hhse
I agree with your comment on small wash sale trades by the manipulators trying to keep the pps down but it really doesn't seem to work very well, IMO. I have bought more on the dips several times recently because it just looks like a bargain. I do think, however, that the constant bashing posts are keeping some new investors out of the stock. When HHSE gets a market maker will that clear out these small manipulative trades? The audit and an uplist would probably help even more.
I have noticed that most days, today included, the majority of HHSE trades seem to be too small to make sense. Today so far, most of the trades involve 1000 to 11,000 shares ($30 to $300 per transaction). With anything like normal trade commissions, the commission is a relatively large percentage of the trade. Is there any other explanation for this other than someone trying to manipulate the pps?
I agree with you if you are only looking at day trading--short term liquidity is critical. I've been long on HHSE for a couple of years now while they have been building their business and brand. I am content to wait until the audit is done and they uplist to a higher exchange. I believe when that happens liquidity will not be a problem.
There may not be much visible on the bid but just try buying half a million shares and see how fast it goes up. Not many sellers ready to sell at these levels--just the flippers. At the end of the day HHSE will do very well for the longs in my opinion.
I haven't posted here in quite awhile--too much drama for me. I've been in TDGI for more than two years now through the ups and downs and watched the management team gradually get their act together and start making profit consistently. Its small market cap has made it easy to manipulate along the way but those days are nearly over. The relatively early filing of the Q4-11 results tells me that the audit is nearly done soon to be followed by the uplisting and a new market maker. Good news comes frequently these days and the pps should soon reflect the true value of this great little company. If you are on the sidelines still, don't wait much longer!
Welcome to the club--a great time to be getting in at these discount prices. With a good Q3 under their belt and a good Q4 coming these share prices will not last far into 2012. Q1-12 will bring major changes for TDGI. They will have two years of audited results (both after the reverse acquisition) and likely apply for uplisting with a new ticker symbol. It will be great to get off the pinksheets with all the negatives associated with it. I imagine some are selling here to take losses to offset their gains on other equities but will buy back in early in 2012 before the year-end results start rolling in. For those with dry powder now it is a great opportunity.
Turtle was released the same day (June 24) as Cars 2 and Transformers released five days later on the 29th. They both had extensive runs taking up multiple screens in each theater they played in. Then the Harry Potter movie came out on July 15th. How can you say Eric delayed the intro of Turtles to avoid competing with blockbuster summer films?
Are you kidding? Turtle was released against a lot of summer blockbuster movies and ended up playing in only 100 screens. Still it will be very profitable after the DVDs are sold during the Christmas season. With Regal pumping AFIL with previews and in-theater posters it will have tons more publicity and a higher average per screen than Turtle (unless you think Regal is incompetent). It also doesn't have to go up against a ton of blockbusters every week and appeals to a much wider audience than a nature documentary.
I asked EP this same question a few weeks ago and his answer was:
"It's the next big project to complete... and Eduardo and Fred are knee-deep into it with Hogan and Taylor. Thanks ERIC"
I guess the time-consuming deals with companies like Patriot keep getting in the way--pulling Fred off the audit. I want the audit out too but I don't want to stop the deals.
Great news out today from GSK regarding the malaria tests in Africa. This vaccine will save hundreds of thousands of kids every year. AGEN has about 15 more clinical studies going on and if half of them have good results AGEN will continue to soar over the long run.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Positive-Results-Shown-With-pz-1454352756.html?x=0&.v=1
I hadn't thought much about the possibility of a buyout until recently. TDGI's past had been too erratic but things are different now. Last year we heard about "off balance sheet" financing for projects--that's gone now. Instead, if I remember correctly, Eric was able to get a $500K bank loan for the release and publicity for All's Faire. How many pink sheet companies can go to a normal bank and get loans? In this economic climate banks are very careful who they loan money to--they make darn sure they aren't throwing money down a rat hole. If TDGI can get bank loans they must have the numbers to make it happen. That's exactly what a buyout suitor would be looking at too. I would just like for TDGI to get to fair value before a buyout happens to put the frosting on the cake.
Not your old TDGI! I've been in TDGI for over 20 months now and watched as the company has matured especially this year. The old TDGI was way too fast to announce possible developments many of which ended up not working out and made them look bad. It took forever to get the asset valuation completed and formally released (over 5 cents per share not including anything from the recent deals). They struggled to get their movies on enough screens to make them successful in theatrical release but made up for it on DVD sales (Twelve is a good example and Turtle will be the same in Q4).
This year something gradually changed--no more hasty ill-advised PRs. They started waiting until things were 100% nailed down. Then the big deals started to roll in--Fox deal on DVD distribution and the huge deal with Regal Entertainment on All's Faire in Love that will get the number of screens needed to make that movie a success. They got current on financials and got the warning removed from the OTC exchange. I am confident that they are working on the formal financial audit (at last--until recently it was not a high priority compared to making big deals and getting the company foundation laid for growth into 2012 and beyond) and it will come out just as the great Q3 numbers are released (we already know that they have a lot of income from the Q2 Twelve DVD sales from Fox that came in too late to make TDGI's Q2 report).
Yes--it is frustrating to see the pps at the present levels, just half of their book value in fact and not even taking into account the big deals that have happened this year. It feels to me that, although it is still a penny stock, it is being managed and evaluated as a higher exchange stock but without the volume SO FAR to make it hard for a few manipulators to keep the price down. In my opinion, that is about to change and I am amazed that new investors can still get on board at prices that I paid last year.
I asked Eric about the audit on September 29th. His reply was:
"It's the next big project to complete... and Eduardo and Fred are knee-deep into it with Hogan and Taylor. Thanks ERIC"
I just think it never gets to the absolute top of their priority--too busy making deals I guess.
For some reason all reverse splits are always taken as negative. One reason may be that it demonstrates that the company does not believe it will achieve the pps necessary to get relisted on the exchange anytime soon without the reverse split. Anyway, I do think the company has a bright future and the share price will recover over time based on so many opportunities for the company to achieve good financial results as the clinical trials come to successful conclusions. This is a good buying opportunity for those with dry powder.
I believe the countdown to the TDGI pps blastoff is getting real near zero. The company is going to finish the year very profitably and the recent news is amazing--the deal with Regal to be specific. On any normal pink sheet stock a deal like this would drive the price through the roof. I guess we still have a few flippers or short term investors who are satisfied with the recent gains and are cashing out. Fine--hopefully they will run out of shares soon and the longer term investors will have those shares tucked away for the long ride up. For heaven's sake--TDGI's library has a book value per share almost twice the current share price! We need more longer term investors to discover TDGI before it will reach its true value. I think that will happen soon.
This is a great day to be ALREADY heavily invested in TDGI rather than getting in next week after Regal announces the agreement. It has been a long time coming but things are really falling into place now. We are nearing the end of Q3 and we already know the numbers will be good since they will include revenue from Fox from Twelve sales in Q2 as a baseline. All's Faire starting in October at potentially hundreds of Regal locations should provide great revenue for Q4. That will be on top of the Turtle DVD revenues which Eric has already said will be their biggest DVD release ever. TDGI has a large base of committed investors who by now must own most of the float. I think this atypical penny stock is ready to blast off based on fundamentals rather than hype. Let's enjoy the ride up!
Simple Math--the holder of the Series D preferred shares at 8% annual dividend of $720K obviously thought he would get a better return on their $9MM investment than 8% by converting to common stock. they knew it would cause a dilution and did it anyway. I see this as very positive for the company. Getting 8% on a $9MM investment is good these days. I'm sure they watch ELTP very closely and possibly have a lot of inside information that they based the conversion on. They're probably expecting to make a LOT more than 8% on this deal. Also, it cleans up the books for the future and it will help them be more profitable in the days ahead. I bought more on the dip this morning--too good to pass up!