Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Because of the drop in futures right after the close, fair value on futures is +quite a bit, meaning futures really aren't up much from the 4pm close, if at all. Futures are likely up because Asia's up, but that could change when Europe opens in a few hours.
The extremely low put/call ratio means that very few puts of any kind are being bought relative to calls.
A high put/call ratio, with "Large Quantity Buying of IN-THE-MONEY PUTs" would be bullish action, but that's not what we have.
There's huge buying of calls relative to puts, which is bearish, showing too much bullish sentiment.
How did you find that "quantities of Puts" are being bought, when the extremely low put/call ratio indicates far fewer puts than calls are being bought?
The prices weren't "conveniently placed" there. That was actually an 8 cent premium to the closing price the day before the placement closed (so investors were actually under water the day before the March 6 closing), and 56% above the low in October. Most U.S. private placements are priced at a significant discount to the market price, as investors are required to hold for at least a year, and this one was done without any commissions. The warrant price was set at the closing price on the day of closing. The news of the placement closing was released on March 13 (http://www.metalin.com/3-13-07.pdf ) -- this news today was a shareholder update that only recapped that information.
IMO, the ethics of management are beyond reproach. They are straight shooters that are exceptionally conservative and honest. In early March, many investors were thinking the stock would go much lower because of the downtrend, zinc price weakness, and global market weakness (the Dow had sold off 8 out of 9 days, losing 736 points to March 5), so the placement investors had a lot of faith buying so close to the market price and locking up their shares for at least a year.
Yes, MMG on Amex has a world class zinc project in feasibility, and is very undervalued based on just that, but they also have a large amount of silver on their property, which had 45 former-producing mines that only direct shipped ore that didn't need milling. They're working to define the silver and should move up significantly as they prove that out and move the low-cost zinc project (over 5 billion proven pounds) through feasibility. They sold off this month as they had millions of shares come free trading from a private placement a year ago, creating a great long-term buying opportunity.
Also, Roxmark Mines (RMKL on the CNQ, RMKMF on pink sheets: http://www.roxmark.com/ ) is at sale prices because a 92-year old large shareholder just sold 8.5 million shares for estate planning purposes. They should get listing on TSXV any day now, and they have 6 former-producing gold mines as well as a moly deposit in test production. They have a fully permitted mill that is probably worth more than the entire market cap.
Once listed, I think Roxmark will go much higher as they move their moly into full production and reopen some of their gold mines. It's a unique opportunity to get lots of gold and moly near production very cheap.
I like these situations where there are great projects which will clearly make it to production and worth a lot more long term, but are on sale short term for non-fundamental reasons. Here's a good recent article discussing this type of situation:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hoy/feb082007.html
If my thinking is correct those funds and investors that have the ability to recognize companies that are “real” with projects that are worthy of attaching the word “production” have the opportunity see returns beyond their wildest dreams. Unfortunately this probably will not happen for the vast majority of investors. Why? Because the vast majority of investors and funds are “BOYS!”
“THE BOYS”
The “Boys” are investors who think in terms of percentages. These investors have very little respect or understanding for the value being developed in the assets they own. Many are traders who allow a formula to dictate their entry and exit points giving no credence whatsoever to the accomplishments of management. Many are private placement buyers who understand the necessity of Venture Exchange Companies to raise capital. They know that after their holding periods are up they can sell their shares at a percentage profit and keep their warrants with absolutely no risk and no capital tied up. In the end, many of the “Boys” that play this game have never had a trade in the open market except for a sell. The sale of these shares gives them percentage profits, which normally turn out to be pretty good percentage returns, but in no way reflects the true value of the investments they may own. I call these people “Boys” because they do not differentiate companies that are very well managed with a future from those that are nothing more than trading vehicles. A classic example of this is trading a silver dollar for pennies. No one in their right mind would make an exchange like this if they knew the difference.
“THE MEN”
The “Men” on the other hand, are in search of the “Silver Dollars.” The “Men” recognize the potential of companies that are very well managed with corporate teams that have been successful in developing resources that are worthy of being put into production. The men recognize that share price weakness in these companies is an opportunity to build positions and redistribute shares from the hands of the “Boys” into strong hands that want “Silver Dollars” instead of pennies. The Venture Exchange has no shortage of companies that fall into this category. The “Men” recognize that as a company develops their projects, shareholder value multiplies making their original investments pocket change in relation to what should be reflected in the current market share price of their investments.
Many times the current market share price has nothing in common with the value that has been built as a result of successful programs. It is at times like this where you have a true separation between the “Men and the “Boys.”
At times when the share price does not perform in a manner that one would naturally assume it should as a result of positive behind the scene developments the “Boys” will constantly gripe and complain about the poor price of their shares. The “Men” on the other hand will sit back and quietly take advantage of the mistakes made by the “Boys” as they dump their shares and move on in search of “what they think” are more plentiful hunting grounds.
The estate sale on Roxmark shares is over. Now that that's out of the way, the TSXV listing should come any day. It will be nice to be rid of the CNQ thin trading...
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/February2007/22/c3555.html
Notice of completion of sale of common shares of Roxmark Mines Limited ("Roxmark") - RMKL - CNQ
TORONTO, Feb. 22 /CNW/ - Dr. S.E. Malouf together with his private
companies S.E.Malouf Consulting Geologists Limited and Zinc Metal Corporation
(an "investor group") announce they have completed the sale, through the open
market, of 8,644,073 common shares of Roxmark Mines Limited ("Roxmark"). The
sale has reduced the investor group's holdings from 20,082,943 (15.2%) to
11,438,870 (8.6%) of the issued and outstanding common shares of Roxmark.
For further information: Michael Malouf, (416) 241-3857
NJMC is a great one for long-term investors. Gold production, silver production coming, copper in the future. As they continue to ramp up their production and the Silver Valley gets more attention, NJMC should reward investors handsomely.
The zinc market is very different fundamentally from the copper market: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15999314
Zinc inventories crept up for about a month and a half by only about 15,000 tonnes and have been rolling over since. That's actually pretty amazing when you consider they had a short-term surge of 60,000 tonnes from delayed shipments from the world's biggest zinc mine, Teck Cominco's Red Dog mine http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
The fact that zinc inventories only had that temporary blip up from that sizable surge indicates the underlying supply deficit is still there, despite what analysts and the media are saying. I think that will become evident in coming months as zinc inventories head even lower, and zinc could get a nickel-like explosion higher.
Nickel's gone from about $6.75/lb. a year ago to over $19/lb. now as LME inventories have dropped from about 35,000 tonnes to 4,398 tonnes. Zinc is a much bigger market than nickel, so by comparison, zinc's LME inventories are already very low -- over the last 5 years, nickel LME inventories have averaged around 20,000 tonnes while zinc LME inventories have averaged around 400,000 tonnes. It will be interesting to see what level of LME inventories causes the price of zinc to take off -- the all-time low around 84,000 tonnes (currently at 96,625 tonnes)?
Does any stock have as sure a zip code changing potential for coming years as MMG?
MMG (Metalline Mining), like most zinc miners, has pulled back significantly since the high earlier this month as the LME zinc inventory depletion downtrend has paused. Here's a good explanation for that pause: http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/ I think the pullback and any further weakness (a bunch of shares from a private placement about a year ago are freeing up over the next couple of months -- started a couple of months ago) would provide a great opportunity to accumulate MMG for the long term.
The Zip code changing potential of MMG becomes obvious when you do a comparative valuation analysis of MMG vs. other late stage preproduction world-class zinc projects, or vs. current zinc producers (trading orders of magnitude higher: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=14615486 ) and discount back for the time and risks to get to production. If you look at those numbers, you'll see how ridiculously undervalued MMG is at about 1/4 of one year's future cash flow for what could be, in about a year, the biggest proven feasible preproduction zinc project in the world (and maybe the only one with 150,000+ tpa zinc production). They also have lots of very high-grade silver: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15449951
Since they only got Amex listing last month, there's huge pent-up demand from institutions who will want a piece of the only zinc junior listed in the U.S., especially if zinc stays strong or breaks out to new highs (only about 10 cents higher). If they make it to production, which looks like a very solid bet given that the same team got the similar Skorpion mine into production at .35 zinc, MMG would have to go up enormously in coming years just to get a similar valuation to the zinc miners in production, which are arguably very undervalued. I don't know of any stock in any sector that has as sure a huge return for coming years.
I plan on changing my zip code at some point in the next few years with MMG as the vehicle.
Does any stock have as sure a huge return for coming years?
Everybody should do a comparative valuation analysis of other late stage preproduction world-class zinc projects, or take the world-class zinc producers (trading orders of magnitude higher) and discount back for the time and risks to get to production. If you look at those numbers, you'll see how ridiculously undervalued MMG is at about 1/4 of one year's future cash flow for what could be, in about a year, the biggest proven feasible preproduction zinc project in the world (and maybe the only one with 150,000+ tpa zinc production).
Since they only got Amex listing last month, there's huge pent-up demand from institutions who will want a piece of the only zinc junior listed in the U.S., especially if zinc stays strong or breaks out to new highs (only about 10 cents higher). If they make it to production, which looks like a very solid bet given that the same team got the similar Skorpion mine into production at .35 zinc, MMG would have to go up enormously in coming years just to get a similar valuation to the zinc miners in production, which are arguably very undervalued. I don't know of any stock in any sector that has as sure a huge return for coming years.
Why LME Zinc Inventory Depletion has Paused:
http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
This analyst is calling for $5+ zinc within a few years: http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=181534
If he's right, in 3-4 years, MMG could be producing 400 million pounds of zinc a year at a cost of .25-.35/pound, and selling it for over $5 more than that. After a very short payback period of a few months, they could have free cash flow of $2 billion per year. Even assuming 100% dilution to move to production (50 mill. shares fully diluted goes to 100 mill. shares fully diluted) or a 50/50 joint venture with a partner providing financing, at just 4 x free cash flow, that would make it an $8 billion company, or an $80 stock. Plus there's all the high-grade silver and separate zinc.
Even if zinc drops back under $1 from the current $2+, MMG should be a huge winner, but the upside with zinc at $5 would be tremendous.
Now that it's listed on Amex, I think MMG is the only U.S. listed zinc junior miner (only 2 other zinc stocks AFAIK are listed in the U.S.--Teck Cominco, the largest zinc miner in the world, and LMC, listed last week after the merger of mid-tier producers EZM and Lundin). With the upcoming zinc explosion as the LME inventories become depleted, MMG's listing comes as a perfect time.
Until they complete the feasibility study and get to production, there will be lots of risk and volatility, but I'm keeping my eye on the big picture potential a few years out.
Too bad you couldn't get some yesterday before today's 14% rally. I think if you continue to accumulate the dips and hold for the long term you'll do very well.
Lots of info on MMG here: http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
As an extremely undervalued zinc miner with one of the largest zinc deposits in the world along with very high-grade silver, MMG is definitely a Zip code changer. The 5 year LME zinc inventories paints the picture of why zinc mining is the place to be, as the inventories will be gone early next year if prices don't move explosively higher soon:
This analyst is calling for $5+ zinc within a few years: http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=181534
If he's right, in 3-4 years, MMG could be producing 400 million pounds of zinc a year at a cost of .25-.35/pound, and selling it for over $5 more than that. After a very short payback period of a few months, they could have free cash flow of $2 billion per year. Even assuming 100% dilution to move to production (50 mill. shares fully diluted goes to 100 mill. shares fully diluted) or a 50/50 joint venture with a partner providing financing, at just 4 x free cash flow, that would make it an $8 billion company, or an $80 stock. Plus there's all the high-grade silver and separate zinc.
Even if zinc drops back under $1 from the current $2+, MMG should be a huge winner, but the upside with zinc at $5 would be tremendous.
Now that it's listed on Amex, I think MMG is the only U.S. listed zinc junior miner (only 2 other zinc stocks AFAIK are listed in the U.S.--Teck Cominco, the largest zinc miner in the world, and LMC, listed last week after the merger of mid-tier producers EZM and Lundin). With the upcoming zinc explosion as the LME inventories become depleted, MMG's listing comes as a perfect time.
Until they complete the feasibility study and get to production, there will be lots of risk and volatility, but I'm keeping my eye on the big picture potential a few years out.
My reply to this message on the Value Microcaps board was deleted because MMG doesn't yet have positive earnings: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=14615486
I was told I could repost it here instead, and since I plan on it changing my zip code, I think it's a more appropriate forum, so here it is:
<< M M G G shouldn't even be discussed on this board. It is not a producing mine and likely hasn't gone up for a reason. Besides lots of money and time, a new mine would require a substantial new source of water to run it and they haven't been able to find one. >>
It's MMG now, with the Amex listing effective this week.
It has gone up (over 100% since releasing that water news), though like other preproduction juniors, it's still well below its May highs and still is extremely undervalued compared to BWR, HBM, and every zinc stock out there considering its late stage in its feasibility study and its world-class size. Just look at the proven zinc resources per market cap numbers (http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=14615486 ). Sure, you have to discount for the cost to go to production, the risk they won't be economically feasible, and the time value of money, but the current discount is ridiculous.
With more proven zinc than HBM or BWR (at a tiny fraction of their market caps) they have the largest late-stage preproduction zinc project in the world that majors will be able to buy out. When they complete the feasibility study next year, removing all the feasibility risks, I think they'll have multiple cash-rich bidders looking to extend their zinc reserves. Zinifex said just today that they're looking to invest in "junior explorers in areas such as Mexico and South America this year to help it increase production in the longer term": http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/zinifex-casts-an-eye-overseas-for-growth/2006/11/08/116266175545....
They did find a substantial new source of water, as announced last month, but they have to confirm it with testing:
"Our first round of exploratory drilling indicates an area, about 20 kilometers east of the
district mines, where a relatively shallow, high quality water supply may be developed.
Our next round of exploration drilling will be in this area. We have obtained leases for
surface access well sites and pipeline construction in areas where we will be drilling.
The flow rates of exploration borings cannot be accurately evaluated until the holes are
completed as wells, a pump is installed and a lengthy series of pump tests are
performed. We will determine which holes we will complete after we have completed the
exploration drilling. We will not announce any flow rates until the rates are confirmed in
accordance with good engineering practices."
I think the Skorpion precedent shows that piping water over a long distance isn't a showstopper for a mine. Skorpion in Namibia, Africa, is the first and only oxide zinc mine in the world (owned by Anglo American), and it has a lot of similarities to MMG's Sierra Mojada (oxide zinc, same SXEW processing planned, similar tonnage and grade, similar flat, open areas in a warm, sunny climate in an area with fairly cheap and plentiful labor, though Skorpion didn't have as much infrastructure and had to build a power plant and sulphuric acid plant). You can see more on Skorpion here: http://www.metalin.com/skorpion.html (check out the photo of the warehouse full of zinc bars at the bottom).
Green Team International (GTI) did the feasibility study for Skorpion and moved them to production in 2003, when zinc was at about $.35/lb. GTI is the group doing MMG's feasibility study right now. From the GTI site, I found that Skorpion actually pumped water from 45 km away:
http://www.gti.co.za/projects.htm
"water supply from the Orange river, 45 km away."
Since Skorpion was able to be economically feasible at $.35 zinc (now over $2.00), despite having far less infrastructure than Sierra Mojada has and having to pump water 45km, I have no doubt Sierra Mojada will be shown to be economically feasible now by the same GTI team. MMG was able to find water 20km away in their first round of exploratory drilling (http://www.metalin.com/10-04-06.pdf ). If they confirm this source is sufficient, their water piping costs should be less than Skorpion's.
Even if the water they found is a dud, and they can't find enough water within hundreds of miles, they can locate the refinery plant near water, either within Mexico or elsewhere. Since there's only one oxide zinc refinery in the world (Skorpion's), part of MMG's project is to build their own oxide zinc refinery. That's why they had to prove up such a huge zinc deposit, enough to justify the building of a refinery, before commencing the feasibility study. Their earlier testing showed that they can easily produce a concentrate from the ore which they can ship anywhere in the world for refining, meaning they can locate the refinery wherever it makes the most sense from a tax incentive, power, labor, etc. standpoint. This flexibility gives them negotiating power with Mexico and other countries to get the best all-around deal for the refinery.
Bottom line is there is water nearby. They need to confirm it's enough for the mine and refinery, but if not, they'll locate the refinery elsewhere (they may anyway if they get a better deal somewhere else). Until they confirm the water source, refinery location, and do everything else needed to complete the feasibility study, there will be risk of MMG not being economically feasible. However, I think the risk priced into the company's tiny market cap for the size and stage of its 100%-owned proven zinc deposit, are much lower than people think, presenting investors with a great long-term zinc/silver value opportunity.
Can MMGG be replaced with MMG and the correct chart in the header now that the Amex listing is effective?
How High Can MMG Go?
http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
Don't worry about MMG. It's only pulled back some from profit taking after more than doubling in a month. It's still a much better value that BWRLF and should outperform it over the long run:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22964401
To: koan who wrote (24020) 11/1/2006 11:48:10 AM
From: Mr. Aloha Read Replies (3) of 24640
Breakwater warrants definitely have a lot of leverage on zinc, and much more than a bigger company like HudBay (HBM), but MMGG gives the best leverage on proven zinc resources in the zinc game:
BWR:
Myra Falls = 8,647,000 tonnes at 7.8% (674,466 tonnes contained zinc)
El Mochito = 3,195,000 at 8.2% (261,990 tonnes)
El Toqui = 3,420,000 at 8.4% (287,280 tonnes)
Langlois = 4,980,700 tonnes at 11.15% (555,348.05 tonnes)
Total = 1,779,084.05 tonnes contained zinc, or 3.9 billion pounds
(from http://www.breakwater.ca/operations/myra.cfm , http://www.breakwater.ca/operations/mochito.cfm , http://www.breakwater.ca/operations/toqui.cfm , and http://www.breakwater.ca/operations/langlois.cfm)
459,503,549 fully diluted shares outstanding x 1.58 CAD = 726,015,607 CAD x .89 = $646,153,591 fully diluted market cap
(from http://www.breakwater.ca/investor/securities.cfm )
3.9 billion pounds / $646,153,591 = 6.04 lbs. of zinc per dollar invested
BWR warrants give you 92.7% more leverage at .82 (1.58/.82 = 1.927), so you get 11.6 lbs. of zinc per dollar invested with the warrants
HBM:
Zinc reserves = 21,400,000 tonnes of 5.3% (1,134,200,000 tonnes contained zinc), less about 85 million mt reserves mined in this year’s production so far,
leaving approx. 1,050,000 tonnes contained zinc reserves remaining
Resources = 4,900,000 tonnes of 7.4% zinc (362,600 tonnes) resources = 800 million lbs
Total = 1,412,600 tonnes contained zinc, or 3.11 billion lbs.
(from http://www.hudbayminerals.com/oreReserves.php ) on 1/1/06
124,796,513 shares outstanding (unclear what fully diluted is) x 19.15 CAD = $2,389,853,223.95 CAD x .89 = $2,126,969,369 basic market cap
(from http://www.hudbayminerals.com/investorRelations.php )
3.11 billion lbs. / $2,126,969,369 = 1.46 lbs. of zinc per dollar invested
MMGG:
Iron Oxide Manto = 28,042,538 tonnes of 7.04% zinc (1,974,185 tonnes contained zinc)
(from page 29: http://www.metalin.com/Metalline,%20Sierra%20Mojada,%20Zinc%20060625.pdf )
Smithsonite Manto = 5,431,050 tonnes of 12.08% zinc (656,070.84 tonnes)
(bottom of page 1: http://www.metalin.com/03-18-05.pdf )
Total = 2,630,255.84 tonnes contained zinc, or 5.8 billion lbs.
49.7 million shares fully diluted x 2.87 = $142,639,000 fully diluted market cap
5.8 billion lbs. / $142,639,000 = 40.66 lbs. of zinc per dollar invested
The zinc producers deserve a higher valuation than the preproduction MMGG, but assuming MMGG can get to production, it definitely gives much more leverage to zinc than BWR or BWR warrants, even after the recent recovery of the stock. Assuming BWR gets to full production with all four of its zinc mines, its warrants definitely give much more leverage to zinc than HBM.
BWR’s higher costs and not being in full production yet give it a big discount to HBM, and MMGG’s lack of a listing on a major exchange and not having completed the feasibility study yet give it a big discount to both BWR and HBM. Higher zinc prices give MMGG the added benefit of improving their project economics and likelihood of going to production.
With the extreme likelihood that MMGG will get listed on a major exchange and have a very positive feasibility study (given the same team produced a positive feasibility study and got the similar Skorpion mine into production when zinc was 35 cents), I think MMGG, despite its recent recovery, still is the best value out there, bar none.
Metalline Mining Company Announces Listing on the American Stock Exchange
Monday November 6, 9:00 am ET
COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho, Nov. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Metalline Mining Company (Amex: MMG - News) announces today that its common stock will begin trading this morning on the American Stock Exchange ("Amex") under the trading symbol "MMG". The company selected J. Streicher & Co. as its specialist.
"Metalline has achieved a very important milestone by gaining approval for trading on Amex, which provides our shareholders with a more liquid and efficient trading market, and to be one of the few zinc mining and exploration companies to be trading on Amex," said Merlin D. Bingham, the Company's President.
"We are very pleased to welcome Metalline Mining Company to the American Stock Exchange," said John McGonegal, Senior Vice President of the Amex Equities Group. "In listing at the Amex, we will be able to offer Metalline Mining the value-added services that a growing company needs to succeed in today's competitive market."
Metalline Mining Company is an exploration stage enterprise engaged in the business of mining. The Company conducts its operations in the municipality of Sierra Mojada, Coahuila, Mexico through its wholly owned Mexican subsidiary, Minera Metalin S.A. de C.V. The Company's has identified an oxide zinc resource that contains sufficient estimated zinc metal to justify a feasibility study, which has been initiated. To obtain more information on Metalline Mining Company, visit the Company's web site (www.metalin.com).
Safe Harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Except for historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this news release are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors affecting the companies' operations, markets, products and prices, and including other factors discussed in Metalline Mining Company's various filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Metalline Mining Company
I don't think anyone claimed the company has "proven reserves." The company has stated in several different press releases that it has no "proven reserves." The SEC doesn't allow companies to use the term "reserves" until completion of a feasibility study, which Metalline's going through currently. Until then, it's known as "resources" or "mineralization." NovaGold had over 10 times the market cap without any "reserves."
Metalline's zinc was proven by an independent contractor that specializes in resource estimation: http://www.metalin.com/03-18-05.pdf
Yes, raising money to go to production in mining almost always entails equity dilution if there's no takeover. That's how mining works. If it didn't, a preproduction, prefinancing miner wouldn't trade at such a big discount to producers. You have to factor that in to any valuation calculations. Even after factoring in dilution to finance production and the time value of money, MMG is severely undervalued: http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com/2006/11/mmm-mmm-good.html
The risks are being removed by the feasibility study. If it's positive, the stock will be worth many times the current price. As the feasibility study nears completion and the price of zinc increases, thereby tremendously decreasing the risk that the project won't be economic, the company's value goes way up. Since the similar Skorpion mine was put into production by the same team profitably when zinc was at .35, the risk of this mine being uneconomic with zinc near $2.00 is almost nil.
HudBay Minerals was at $3.75 a year ago, when Metalline was raising the money for the feasibility study, and it's $19.28 now. Just because HudBay was at $3.75 then, does that mean that's how much the stock is worth now, after zinc's nearly tripled in that time? MMGG was at $5.67 in May, when zinc was much lower. With zinc getting ready for an explosive move when the LME zinc inventories drop to near 0, it's only a matter of time before MMG takes out that high.
Lots of info on MMGG here:
How High Can MMG Go?
http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
How High Can MMG Go?
http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
Mmm, Mmm, Good
http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com/2006/11/mmm-mmm-good.html
How High Can MMG Go?
http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
Mmm, Mmm, Good
http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com/2006/11/mmm-mmm-good.html
They're very different. LMC's a producer, but its market cap is nearly 50 times bigger than MMG's. MMG has much more upside because of its tiny market cap vs. what they have.
The Amex listing is perfect timing with management's roadshow in Europe right now. I don't think European institutions (or the Canadians they visited last week) will buy a stock on the bulletin board. Not many American institutions will, either. Metalline Mining's typical shareholder profile will be changing drastically from bulletin board traders to high profile international institutions.
With the likelihood that MMGG will have a very positive feasibility study (given the same team produced a positive feasibility study and got the similar Skorpion mine into production when zinc was 35 cents), I think MMGG is the best zinc play around. With 5.8 billion proven pounds of zinc and a fully diluted market cap under $150 million, it's a no brainer, IMO. At about 1% of the value of their proven zinc, the current market cap is ridiculously low for the amount of proven zinc they have at such a late stage of development.
I'll be very surprised if they don't get multiple takeover offers after they finish the feasibility study, especially if zinc is anywhere near the current price or higher. It'll be the biggest proven preproduction zinc project in the world that cash rich majors will be able to buy, and it's in a politically secure area. With the listing on a real stock exchange, I think MMG will be several times higher in about a year.
Good-bye, MMGG, hello, MMG.
The Amex listing is perfect timing with management's roadshow in Europe right now. I don't think European institutions (or the Canadians they visited last week) will buy a stock on the bulletin board. Not many American institutions will, either. Metalline Mining's typical shareholder profile will be changing drastically from bulletin board traders to high profile international institutions.
With the likelihood that MMGG will have a very positive feasibility study (given the same team produced a positive feasibility study and got the similar Skorpion mine into production when zinc was 35 cents), I think MMGG is the best zinc play around. With 5.8 billion proven pounds of zinc and a fully diluted market cap under $150 million, it's a no brainer, IMO. At about 1% of the value of their proven zinc, the current market cap is ridiculously low for the amount of proven zinc they have at such a late stage of development.
I'll be very surprised if they don't get multiple takeover offers after they finish the feasibility study, especially if zinc is anywhere near the current price or higher. It'll be the biggest proven preproduction zinc project in the world that cash rich majors will be able to buy, and it's in a politically secure area. With the listing on a real stock exchange, I think MMG will be several times higher in about a year.
Good-bye, MMGG, hello, MMG.
With Zinc nearing $2/lb. vs. .35 a few years ago, they'll have no trouble financing the mine and refinery. IMO, their stock will be several times higher within a year or so now that they'll be on a real stock exchange.
Management's been on a road show to the East Coast, Canada, and Europe to drum up institutional interest, and those guys won't buy a stock on the bulletin board. Watch the institutional buying come in next week when they're on the Amex.
I heard Avino is trading at only around the value of their assets (or even lower), including their mill. It seems like a great, low-risk silver play with huge upside potential from reopening the old mine, from the tailings, and from the huge prospective property.
Here's a good chart of MMGG, to go along with the fundamentals (http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com ). Notice the longer term uptrend, the break of the shorter term downtrend, and the bounce off the 200 day MA and previous support. Also notice the uplegs have come on big volume while the pullbacks have been on low volume:
Here's a good chart of MMGG:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=MMGG&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=15&i=p32992858454&a=8...
Copper Fox up nearly 50% the last 3 days as Mike Schaeffer's getting all his newsletter readers on board:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12873882
This is one to hold on to for a couple of years, IMO.
Yes, by that rule of thumb, it would be a buy up to around 10x the current price, subject to the changes in the price of zinc and any increases in defined mineralization.
It's really a staggering buy at these levels, especially when you consider it's world class in size in a very secure part of the world and is well into the feasibility study for the zinc, using the same team that did the fease for Skorpion and got it into production. It should start to get recognition for the value when it gets listed.
No news that I know of, which is probably why the stock price remains in the doldrums. With all the drilling going on, the mine plan being developed, and the application for listing on a "senior exchange," there should be some news pretty soon.
Judging from the action on level II, it seems there's one big seller who's been on the ask for weeks (through JEFF), holding back the stock. IMO, whenever that seller's done, the stock will be unleashed to the upside. Resolution of the Mexican election in the next couple of weeks will also help.
The long-term upside is incredible, if you think about the fact that MMGG's Sierra Mojada could be the second biggest new zinc project in the world for years to come. Sierra Mojada's similar in size to Apex Silver's San Cristobal in Bolivia on this list of big zinc projects: http://www.metalin.com/images/zinc-03-big.jpg
The biggest zinc project (by far) is Mehdiabad in Iran. They're currently trying to get financing now for their $1.6 billion in capex, during this time of political crisis there. If that huge project fails to get to production, that's 6% of the expected world supply of zinc that won't be coming, which would be extremely bullish for zinc and MMGG.
During the recent announcement of the Lundin/Eurozinc merger, both CEO's said they'd be looking to acquire "world class" pre-production base metal projects wherever they are in the world. I don't know how much more "world class" you can get than the biggest zinc project in the world that's in a politically secure area. Anglo American, who bought the Skorpion zinc mine about 6 years ago, is another likely bidder for MMGG once the feasibility study's done (http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com/2006/01/why-we-think-anglo-american-aauk-will.html ).
Any way you look at it, MMGG's valuation is ridiculous at about 1% of the value of the metal in the ground. The late Julian Baring used a rule of thumb for valuing metal shares:
"Buy up to 10% of the in situ value of a deposit using current metal prices, hold up to 40% and sell above 40% taking no prisoners!!!!"
If they can prove up their silver and other zinc deposits, they'll be worth even more.
I think the bulletin board status has held MMGG back. Once they get listed, they'll lose that albatross and insitutions and other investors can invest. Once their feasibility study's done, I think the takeover bidders will come out of the woodwork. However, barring a frenzied bidding war, the best path for shareholders would probably be to move into production alone.
Copper Fox (CUU.V or CPFXF) looks like a great NovaGold-related investment. Nice chart, with an island reversal bottom just put in:
http://www.greatinvestments.blogspot.com/
As you can see from Table 1 on page 3 of the April letter to shareholders, the Schaft Creek deposit compares favorably to the Northgate Minerals (NXG) Kemess deposits and could be similar to the NovaGold (NG) Galore Creek deposit, despite having only a tiny fraction of the market cap of those two neighboring projects. While Schaft Creek still has a ways to go before it gets to the production stage of Northgate’s Kemess South deposit, or even the feasibility study stage of NovaGold’s Galore Creek deposit, the market caps of those stocks gives you an idea of the potential for the Schaft Creek project and Copper Fox if everything goes as planned.
With NovaGold's market cap over $1.7 billion, and Northgate's around $1 billion, it looks like Copper Fox, with a market cap under $30 million, could be a 10-bagger or more. However, with all the acquisition attempts in the area, it's likely somebody will buy them out before then.
Also, apparently Mike Schaefer will be putting out a report on Copper Fox on Monday:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22685800
From the Desk of: Michael SCHAEFER, Editor
Subject: 2 Explosive Investments Coming Monday
Date: August 2, 2006
Mike SCHAEFER here.
The first stock is a coming copper colossus that trades for just $0.40 a share. And we'll be getting in at the right time. With a market cap of just $10 million Canadian, we have incredible leverage for some mind-blowing gains in the coming months.
You see, the company - whose stock trades for just $0.40 a share - is sitting on $4.7 billion in copper in British Columbia.
Let me put it another way. Each share of this stock gets you access to more than $20 worth of copper per share. And that's at today's copper prices.
You know me. I think commodity prices will continue to rise substantially. And this company will be right there in the middle of the bull market.
They have a billion-dollar partner in Teck Cominco that will help with the project. So this thing is about as close to a sure bet as I've seen.
And I haven't even mention the fact they also have $97.8 million in gold. That's icing on the cake.
Buy this stock and forget about it. I think in a year you'll be sitting on a 400% gain.
I bought the CUU PP at .55 and also added earlier this week and this am. It's now one of my biggest holdings.
I've looked at other zinc miners, but none compare to what MMGG has vs. its market cap and late stage, especially in such a great historically producing location in a secure part of the world. They're looking to be one of the top 5-10 zinc producers in the world, not to mention their huge silver potential. That's staggering for a junior miner with such a small market cap.
Other zinc miners will do great (except maybe YZC), but I think MMGG will do far better.
There's some good discussion of MMGG on Silicon Investor, particularly this thread: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=55997.
This blog has some detailed analysis of MMGG: http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com/, starting with this article: http://greatinvestments.blogspot.com/2006/01/metalline-mining-mmgg-for-long-term.html.
MMGG is amazing -- the more I look into it the more I see enormous potential, especially with recent drill results indicating high-grade silver and more zinc, and last week's news indicating possibly another huge zinc deposit. This is in addition to the zinc undergoing the feasibility study, which by itself makes MMGG currently very undervalued.
MMGG to file a listing application with a senior stock exchange (http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=4172079, page 21):
"For example, the Company intends to file a listing application with a senior stock exchange. Any senior stock exchange listing would require the Company to have at least 50% of its board comprising of independent directors. Moreover, a senior exchange listing would require adding directors with financial expertise."
Seems they had to add a director to file the listing application.
With the metals and mining stocks getting hit hard since Thursday, MMGG is finally getting the rest I was looking for. Now that last week's gap from the 3.9's is filled, the technicals look much better for a continuation of the rally, especially after Thurday's news.
Well over $5 now. So much for it resting some... Those drill results this morning make MMGG a silver stock now, too. Multiple very high grade veins -- wow.
MMGG closed at a new all-time high today. It took 5 years, but it finally broke through the 4.37 high from 2000, closing at 4.53.
After its recent rally has its daily chart pretty extended, I'd like to see it rest some before continuing higher, but it seems to have a lot of new investor interest with zinc hitting a new all-time high today over $1.60.
I still think it's headed much higher over the long term, and it remains my favorite stock.
No, this is Hommel's latest email:
http://silverstockreport.com/email/Apex_swindle.html
I think this rally is more TA driven than blog driven. There were lots of profit takers from when the stock was in the doldrums last year who held the stock back the last couple of months even though zinc rallied over 50%. Those sellers were finally taken out, unleashing the buy-side demand on this breakout.
IMO, the fundamentals point much higher, especially if they can show silver/copper in addition to zinc. The profit takers could only hold it down so long...
MMGG looks headed much higher to me over the long term. Here's some new analysis on MMGG from today and yesterday:
http://www.greattrades.blogspot.com/
Some new analysis on MMGG today and yesterday:
http://www.greattrades.blogspot.com/