Friday, November 10, 2006 1:04:48 AM
If he's right, in 3-4 years, MMG could be producing 400 million pounds of zinc a year at a cost of .25-.35/pound, and selling it for over $5 more than that. After a very short payback period of a few months, they could have free cash flow of $2 billion per year. Even assuming 100% dilution to move to production (50 mill. shares fully diluted goes to 100 mill. shares fully diluted) or a 50/50 joint venture with a partner providing financing, at just 4 x free cash flow, that would make it an $8 billion company, or an $80 stock. Plus there's all the high-grade silver and separate zinc.
Even if zinc drops back under $1 from the current $2+, MMG should be a huge winner, but the upside with zinc at $5 would be tremendous.
Now that it's listed on Amex, I think MMG is the only U.S. listed zinc junior miner (only 2 other zinc stocks AFAIK are listed in the U.S.--Teck Cominco, the largest zinc miner in the world, and LMC, listed last week after the merger of mid-tier producers EZM and Lundin). With the upcoming zinc explosion as the LME inventories become depleted, MMG's listing comes as a perfect time.
Until they complete the feasibility study and get to production, there will be lots of risk and volatility, but I'm keeping my eye on the big picture potential a few years out.
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