[I don't know if the govt will outright collapse or we're heading toward a hyperinflationary period, but I've been putting funds toward gold and silver coins. Though with gold so high, mostly all silver lately.]

Good choice. Personally, I think that if we don't create jobs with a livable wage soon we're going to see anarchy by the poor and disenfranchised. 46 million people are now below the poverty level. Unconcionable IMO.

interesting, could have sworn i replied to generic'. did you change you're screen name in the last 7 minutes?

Yes, if i'm correct could take till end of jan. to get there. if 100% retrace could take till june/july, based on a presumption that charts are mostly symmetrical in their advances and declines off peaks and valleys.

word of warning... i'm often on the loosing end of trades and may be completely full of crap on my projections.

i'm going to see this trade out to the stop, it turned my way and now i go about life worry free, waiting to see if it bears more substantial fruit.

Set stop on short spy @ 106.54 guaranteeing a profit. I think they sucked in as much money as possible on the long side and now we work down to at least a 50% retrace of the entire move off 666 spx.

dude, you're all right.....


i work as a welder in a factory and we use much profanity and downgrading of each other.


you're cool because your not so hoity toity that you don't understand some light hearted bashing.

hey steve!!!

i don't want to piss on your lawn so i'm asking if it's ok for me to post a record of my etf trades on your board?

unfortunately my feeling is rydex is an obsolete diniosaur. pulled my money couple years ago w/noregret. market orders, stops etc. were well worth it.... not to mention leveraged etf's.

whatever you decide...we have history on your board and i'll alway's consider you an asshole.


was joking.... be cool.............. lmao.

contrarion turning point? all clear given by ecri.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/351455/The-Pessimists-Are-Wrong-No-Downturn-Anytime-Soon-ECRI's-Achuthan-Says?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,spy,dia,qqqq&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

we'll see, but i don't see it technical or fundimental. next
big thing consumer is awol.



reality check.........time.

shorted spy 106.94. exaustion of the move out of the march low.

This rally should be about finished. I think we go back to test 875 breakout which will be successful after a couple touches then rally setting a lower high than the one we're working on now. Back down, breaking 875 and rally from 750 giving the appearance of an inverse H&S to 800 or so. 800 proves to be strong resistance and down to test 666 which fails.

Ultimately my ideal target is 450 Spx, back to where the market took off from in '95'. Timing? Summer/Fall 2011.

A generational buying opportunity.

Option A and Alt A mortgage resets peak in 2011. No bottom in stock market or housing market until then IMO.

Chart

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

That's one of the needed building blocks but a correction now would be more bullish. Given the recent bearishness/negativity I think this is the awaited intermediate rally. I'm thinking 900-1000 Spx, then down to the final lows (below 666).

What if we rallied from 666 to 911. YIKES!

Lest they be mobbed and beaten silly. <g>

Elliott Wave Rules and Guidelines -- Wave 4 Should Not Overlap Wave 1


Elliott Wave Rules and Guidelines
WAVE 4 SHOULD NOT OVERLAP WAVE 1
(By Marc Rinehart)
Elliott Wave Theory in its simplest form defines a series of impulse and corrective price patterns
as a wave sequence consisting of five general waves trending in either an up or down direction.
Within a general five-wave sequence there are guidelines designed to help you better wave
count, calculate or predict wave relationships. One guideline is referred to as the “Wave 4, Wave
1 Overlap Rule.” This rule states for a valid five-wave sequence to occur Wave 1 cannot overlap
any Wave 4 profit-taking pullback.

http://share.esignal.com/download.jsp?groupid=20&folder=Overlap%20Rule&file=Wave%204%20Should%20Not%20Overlap%20Wave%201.pdf

Astonished at the proliferation of Ewave analysis all over the net. Perhaps it becomes self defeating now that "all" are on board.

.76 EPC. No fear, they think the Nov. low will surely hold.

You won't believe this....

"In my opinion, the bear market is far from over. Whether or not there is a substantial rally, I believe there is another 50% decline coming. That would be a downside target of about 350 on the S&P." http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090213_earn.html

AJ, from a chart you posted earlier, NYA up against DT line. If we maintain a move above this could become the awaited IT rally. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34637524

More like too many shorts. Maybe we chop higher untill more are flushed out.

Seems like a Hail Mary strategy to me. Doesn't seem like one could afford to be anything except perfect at trading.

Sounds like Verizon. 10 min. to navigate the automated system and if your clever enough to find a path to live help, multiple episodes of long hold time.

Customer service sucks these days.

Avast is a good free program. No spamming but does require free registration.

It now looks like energy was the latest bubble. Hedgies drove speculation and small traders piled on = parabolic move.

The fundamentals didn't justify the move up IMO. I'm thinking the next big thing is just around the corner as far as fossil fuel replacement.

If we had put the same committment into alternative energy that we put into the space program it would have been a done deal long ago.

Had a discussion with Zeev in 06. He was looking for a repeat of the 66-82 period. I posted a chart of that time here.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.aspx?msg=13997797

The bulk of the boomers will be withdrawing their assets at exactly the wrong time. Late 90's we thought we'd be rich in retirement.

Next secular bull is unlikely to begin untill boomers are through the system in my view.

Interesting TP and regarding Spx. I have a similar view, up and down but going higher. 1100-1200 is where I think the tops will be made. Historically the Spx has bottomed when the yield is 6% and p/e 9-10 which would put it in the 500's.

Swenlin has good charts on valuation near bottom of page.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html

In my view the 90's were ridiculous in the way we overvalued stocks and it could take another ten years of consolidation before the next secular bull.

Not sure one can include that in any trading decisions. Basically looks like the commercials take the other side of the trade, not unlike a mirror.

Could they be hedging declines in ownership of assets such as commodities or hedgers, such as pension funds?

LOL, life goes on.

Looks like sellers are pretty much exausted for now. But, what's the next shoe to drop that's not priced in? Pension Funds, Commercial Real Estate, State and Municipal insolvencies?

I'd like to see 820 again as part of a base building process for an IT rally to 1000-1200 that lasts several months.

Their contracts are at the extreme. Car companies gave away the store when they had much muscle and largely monopolized the US market.

Markets should worry that they go under. Recession would be much worse.

They need,(UAW), to recognize the realities of their situation and take a leading role in helping to make their employers viable. A restructure of labor costs will happen, either through willing cooperation or w/o their control through chaper 11.

I think chaper 11 is better for car companies as those legacy costs will be null and void (I think?).

UAW being hard headed. They should be happy with parity of compensation.

Gravy train is over and it's time to get with the realities of global competition.

I'm thinking there will be substantial selling in December. Tax-loss and pre mutual fund distribution.

That lines up with your cycle stuff.

Good to hear from you frenchee. I've been bearish on stock prices for several years. It finally got real. Bullish under Spx 1000 and neutral under 1200. I doubt 750 was low enough to call the bottom and think we ultimately go lower.

I'm thinking we retrace to 850-860 next week. Thoughts?

I remember that period. There was a price war in the Middle East as everyone was cheating on quotas except the Saudi's. The Saudi's being the largest producer with plenty of excess capacity opened the foodgate to teach the others a lesson. It worked, at least for a time, strengthening OPEC.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html

From memory and off Carl Swenlins site, There are historical precedents.

Spx is yielding 3.5%. Possible that it could go to 6% before the bear ends.

Now I'm worried about the way the Fed's are throwing money around. That said, we're in an historical crises but eventually the piper gets paid.