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this is stunning to long term investors but great for those that
shorted tasr today. wow! what a downer.
Investors stunned Taser International (NASDAQ: TASR) with a round of profit
taking that cut the company's share price 28.9% to $84.39. After markets
closed on Monday, the company reported quarterly sales and earnings that
soundly beat Street expectations.
investors didn't like the insiders say selling their shares.
excerpt from greenspanomics today. it is interesting but nothing new.
04/20/04 : greenspanomics
The Federal Reserve Chairman told the Senate Banking Committee that signs
of deflation were no longer an issue as the U.S. economy has gathered steam
in recent weeks. He also noted that banks are likely to be much better at
weathering interest rate changes than they had been in the past. The
commentary revived jitters about rising interest rates.
china and resources , they have some and they make sure they will get their full share of all markets for their business.
i wonder if hiet will be in china one day?
bhp is big and very big in resources.
the pinks have this one in the top 25 out of 100 and i kind of like that for LRCM. this is the first time i see lrcm in the top
100 at
http://www.pinksheets.com
in a long time. it maybe getting ready for freddie.
i see two new ones there tonight , wmmvy and tatyy
hiet isn't in the top 100 but that doesn't mean a thing for hiet and their fundamentals.
this is an interesting call for artx.
it looks it could go down a little more.
last around $3.00
hi to all , mot surprises many investors in a.h.
trading, up over $3.00
hi to all, i don't see lrcm mentioned much around the horn?
is lrcm that bad of an investment?
hi scad is there a quote for bocx yet?
i was surprised they delisted them so quickly.
could these be the big three in the next four weeks? wnmi
vntb and lrcm?
hi buzz and to all, is there some reason for nxxi to be
in this declining mode?
hi dallas and to all. this LRCM is bothering me some. is it a m/m/m boys problem to get shares or just walking it down?
i'm ready to sell my house to buy lrcm in the 100k's plus.
is the prowler's tout that bad for last month pick for lrcm?
darn writeup surely looked perfect to me. maybe they will get their web soon like vntb did today.
vntb could be a mover soon too.
hi bernard , i see you have a lot of interesting charts here and companies.
do you favor any in a special item for appreciation?
so is the dart just one that will hit a big move?
hi ccash and to all, i see this one a lot by many who
are interested in this gfyf
hi tim and to all , this is a good scenario how to do it right.
thanx.
what are you working that is so interesting in the fibs?
hi rocket and to all , so does this mean the rockets will
blast off when she does it?
this is for wnmi, right?
hi rocket and to all, so does this mean the rockets will blast
when she does it?
this is for wnmi, right?
trelax this is true the big coin man for his enterprize.
can you imagine a 5 year exclusive , especially with canada?
i'm glad to see trp come in with some good responses.
this is great stuff for MOT,,,04/20/04
they announced very good earnings and it spikes in
a.h. play. a very big mover.
it is in the script above,,,mot
part #13 ,,,shortages 04/20/04
Before I go any further, I want to assure you that we are not alone in these conclusions. Recent reports from Harvard Business School, The Economist, various IT consultancies and other industry think tanks corroborate our findings. We at ChangeWave Investing have simply taken our discovery and started to apply it to an investment strategy a few years AHEAD of the investment world. That's why we will make millions (or more) before most people figure out what's even happening.
Right now, we are positioning ourselves to profit from and ride this next epochal wave of rapidly growing corporate appreciation. At the same time, we will begin to position ourselves AWAY (or short) those companies who will be the victims of this transformation.
To get you started, I've put together a list of 9 "Dead Man Walking" stocks that I'm advising you to sell right way. They are all victims of this unbelievable shift, and you DON'T want to get caught holding the bag again. Dump them -- I mean it.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
BEA Systems (BEAS)
Gateway (GTW)
Web Methods Inc. (WEBM)
AT&T Corp (T)
EMC Corp. (EMC)
Ariba Inc. (ARBA)
Novell (NOVL)
Tivo Inc. (TIVO)
Print Report
part #12,,,shortages 04/20/04
9 "Dead Man Walking" Stocks to SELL Now
You've placed your bets now take your seats. You are not likely to read the information I'm about to share with you anywhere else for quite some time -- but it could save you a fortune (and make you a pretty fat penny, too) if you act now, before most other investors understand what's going on.
The Information Technology industry is undergoing a massive, structural shift that will radically transform the way the entire $2 trillion industry does business. We're calling it the commoditization of IT and it works like this.
Generic IT is about to have the same effect on IT manufacturers as Generic Pharmaceuticals have had on branded prescription drugs. (If you need reminding about where the money's being made in pharma these days, consider this: In its latest earnings report Schering Plough reported that 30 days after its drug Claritin went over-the-counter they lost 97% of their earnings from the drug!). Going forward, customers are not going to pony up for proprietary infrastructure technology. It's over. So are traditional tech companies.
According to recent findings from our ChangeWave Alliance, the new rules of IT management will be as new as the rules that changed post-Internet.
The latest ChangeWave Alliance survey shows how this structural shift is beginning to shake out. Corporate IT spending has changed forever, no more "build it and it will work." In our Q3 IT Spending Survey conducted in early summer, the alliance showed a significant improvement in IT spending, led by a surprising surge in laptops. Overall, 29% of Alliance members reported their company would be increasing IT spending for Q3, while only 16% reported a decrease (or no spending at all). The positive 13 percentage point differential is the largest seen in an IT survey since February 2002. And, looking ahead at the entire second half of 2003, 32% reported their company's overall IT spending budget will be great than the first half of 2003, while only 18% predicted it will be less than the first half.
But, where is that IT money going? It's going towards technology that enables flexibility, security and high-speed communication. A couple 2004 trends I'll share with you now include:
Wireless Laptops and Handheld Computing: In 2004, the wireless laptop computer becomes the computing and information hardware of choice.
Network Security Software and Hardware: IT spending is focused on labor-saving IT and network security software and hardware. Competitive advantage comes from 100% uptime for IT, not from the IT itself.
Last but definitely not least, the "Next Big Thing" is on the way for computing as we've known it. There is an obsolescence factor in IT that is about to deliver REAL demand for a PC replacement cycle. In 2004-2005, we are set to unleash the greatest change in PC computing since Windows or Y2K. Our ChangeWave subscribers have already been hearing about these structural shifts over the past month.
Three major structural shifts (what we call ChangeQuakes) will combine in the next 12-24 months that put us today on the precipice of a PC upgrade cycle that will make Y2K look like a tea party. My main point? Since the use of PCs and software is the linchpin to the 5%-6% productivity gains we've experienced in our economy, U.S. businesses will have no choice but to upgrade their systems to tap this profoundly richer and faster computing world that is about to deliver a one-two-three punch to the IT industry. In the January issue of ChangeWave Investing I give readers the complete story. Get it immediately online today when you subscribe. Don't miss out click here now!
I'm not on drugs. I'm not kidding either. This transformational shift is as profound as the day after Mark Andreessen allowed the downloading of the Mosaic browser and started the modern day Internet mania.
The implications of this transition are literally staggering -- so are the investment ramifications.
Print Report
part #11,,, shortages 04/20/04
Stock #3: Follow the Profits
I don't know about you, but you could not tell my voting precinct from a fire drill at a geriatric community -- the over-60 crowd is the KEY to the next election -- and they are the fastest growing segment of our population over the next 10 years according to the latest census.
Despite the hefty profits we've already made from the generic drug sector in ChangeWave Investing (51% in Teva Pharmaceutical, 118% in Eon Labs and 51% in Lannett Co.), healthcare is still only in the beginning stages of a massive transformation that can make you filthy rich. IF you invest in the right companies today -- and know which ones to avoid like the Flu.
(Bottom Line: The gap between winners and losers in this industry -- quite frankly, in this entire market -- will shock you. To be successful, you must tap into the world's most sophisticated investment intelligence network so you can be sure you're buying the right stocks and selling the wrong ones. Don't waste any more time or miss any more big profit calls. Click here now to join our ChangeWave team and put the power of our 4,200-member Alliance in your investing corner.)
I already told you a little about the monstrous changes now happening in drug manufacturing. But the shift to generics is SO UNBELIEVABLY TRANSFORMATIONAL -- and the profits to be made are so astounding -- that I want to reveal another one of our favorite generic picks here.
There are 52 major drugs coming off patent in the next five years. Fifteen of those are blockbuster drugs, with more than a billion dollars in sales. That means big money in the generic manufacturers' pockets...and YOURS, if you act now.
The companies that are going to do the best are those with first-mover advantage. The first manufacturer with a generic for a particular drug coming off patent gets a six-month exclusive window for selling the drug, giving it a huge edge over competitors and a windfall in profits.
Lannett Co (LCI) is one of the "arms dealers" in the generic supply chain that's benefiting tremendously from this historic shift in buying behavior and end-user demand.
The company got the marketing rights for a top heart drug coming off patent (giving them the widely coveted "first mover" advantage), AND signed an exclusive deal to corner all the raw material for another big drug they cannot disclose for competitive reasons.
In essence, LCI is now a generics company that owns something even more valuable than a patent -- the ingredients of a drug! Buy LCI on a dip below $18.
Print Report Continue
part #10,,,shortages 04/20/04
We Love Stock Momentum!
IMAX has nearly tripled from its lows in February 2003. And our research indicates it should DOUBLE again from here, thanks to the collision of two watershed events in the company's history.
Up until now, their coverage of blockbuster movies has been spotty. They bagged certain key titles, but usually well after the regular release. You were more likely to find IMAX in an urban science museum than your local multiplex.
But that little problem has been solved with a new technology, unveiled in February, that allows IMAX to bring their marvelous, high-depth sound experience to your local multiplex. This is a huge market that was previously off limits.
Even bigger still, IMAX signed a deal with Warner Bros. Pictures to put the two biggest action movies of the year into its venues. And this move should lead other studios to make similar deals with IMAX, in order to give their blockbusters an extra kick with this super format.
With this breakthrough deal the company is building a unique, defensible niche that consumers will flock to by the millions -- just check out the opening week ticket sales on "The Matrix Reloaded" if you need more proof ($134 million in four days!). Buy IMAX below $9, and rake in your share of the profits.
Stock #2: Safety In Numbers
The big pharmaceutical stocks used to be safe enough for "widows and orphans." Not anymore.
Many of them are being run like management doesn't have a clue. Merck is down big. Bristol-Myers Squibb is down big. It's not a pretty picture.
Shrinking pipelines of new drugs. Old drugs coming off patents. The industry is in a shambles.
BUT other drug makers -- generic manufacturers, to be specific -- are really on a roll. The same factors that hamstrung Big Pharma have turned generic drug makers into sales and profit powerhouses.
When Big Pharma's patents expire, the generics step in and clean up. This is a sector you must be in for growth. Plus it's backed by the ever-increasing demands of an aging population (76 million baby boomers, to be exact) -- giving you a great measure of safety, as well. Watch the generics grab more and more market share -- as they stuff your pockets with profits.
At ChangeWave Investing, our top 2 generic picks are up 51% and 118% in just over a year -- and this mighty wave is still growing! Join now and profit with us. Accept a risk-free Trial Membership by going here.
Impax Laboratories (IPXL) is one of our favorites, and a stock I recommend you buy now on dips below $12.50
Impax is a micro-cap company that is ready to break out and is poised to make TONS of cash in the next few years. The company has over 36 different abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) filed with the Federal Drug Administration that target a $6 billion market.
Impax has FDA approval to manufacture a 12-hour dosage of Claritin and approval for a 24-hour dosage is pending. As is the case with first-to-market generic drugs, IPXL has a 180-day window of exclusivity for its versions of Claritin. Claritin generic sales have taken over the vast majority of the branded sales in less than six months and AstraZeneca's Prilosec is next.
But there's more to Impax than Claritin and Prilosec. The company has 10 products approved and 36 products pending approval or in development. The company currently has 19 applications pending before the FDA, three with tentative approval and 14 that would be treated as first-to-market generic, which would give it a six-month window of exclusivity. The 19 applications are for drugs facing a market currently worth $5.9 billion.
This one could end up being as huge as our Aceto recommendation (up 100% for us right now). Don't miss your chance for a second rocket ride. Buy IPXL now.
Print Report
part #9 ,,, shortages 04/20/04
3 "Boom You Win, Bust You Win" Stocks to Buy Today
The beauty about the three companies I'm going share with you next is that even if the market stays status quo for some time, we're looking for 30%-40% growth from these stocks this year. If the rally that's forming now proves sustainable, as I expect, we will make a lot more. Compare that to your current holdings!
Stock #1: Watershed Events = Profit Bonanzas
There are 71 million youngsters between the ages of 9 and 23. Ask any of them about a new movie-going experience and you'll learn one thing.
It's a phenomenon. Bigger than big. And it can DOUBLE your money if you take action now.
The movie "Spider-Man" virtually saved Marvel Comics. Marvel was a relic, an afterthought in the Internet age. That was the case until the web slinger hit the big-screen. The under-30 crowd -- with cash in their pockets and not a care in the world -- trampled each other in their rush to see "Spider-Man." Not once. In many cases, not twice. But over and over again.
It was a bona fide phenomenon that turned Marvel into a new superhero. Investors? They have simply gotten rich. The stock has TRIPLED in less than a year.
IMAX Corp (IMAX) is your ticket to similar profits over the next six to nine months.
Maybe American business isn't ready to turn on the capital spending spigot just yet. Maybe the American consumer won't feel like ponying up another $40,000 for a luxury SUV this year. But people WILL keep treating themselves to their little pleasures.
And digital entertainment -- both in home theaters and traditional cineplexes -- is where it's at.
IMAX announced that the new Harry Potter movies are coming to its large format screens -- we expected this. I can't tell you why IMAX is not a $12 stock today, but as they move from 25 to 300 theaters around the world with IMAX systems, they will be a $25 stock one day soon.
Get the names of the select other stocks we're buying now. Go here.
part #8 ,,, shortages 04/20/04
Trends We're Looking To Invest In During 2004
Huge Profits --
Despite the Bear Market
While most head-in-the-sand investment advisors were telling you to "buy and hold 'cheap' stocks" and begging you to focus on "the long term," our ChangeWave Investing members were avoiding disastrous blow-ups and making money in the here and now:
-- We kept our investors OUT of the Tech Wreck stock meltdown that resulted in 70%, 80%, 90% capital losses.
-- Several of our stocks are currently UP 50% and 60%. One is up 300% in just over a year.
YOU can STILL cash in. Join us now risk free.
Now for the more difficult ones. These forecasts and predictions form the basis of our investment focus for 2004.
Colder-than-normal weather in the Midwest and Eastern U.S.: The Pacific Decadal Oscillator (PDO) we described earlier in this report means early cold winter weather continues.
Natural gas prices average $6.50 in 2004 (with a $5.50-$12 trading range).
The natural gas crisis gets an Energy Bill passed by spring. It takes a crisis to get action in our democracy -that's a fact. And the natural gas price crisis that will be raging this winter and spring will get a bill passed that includes tax credits and other benefits for drilling in hard-to-reach gas fields.
The Jobless Recovery Becomes a Job Creation Frenzy-Unemployment Rate at 5.4% by year-end 2004: What the pessimists about sustainable recovery are missing is that jobs are being created AND consumer spending is rising.
Technology demand surprises forecasters-spending up 18% overall: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has a tech demand and spending index that few know of called the Tech Pulse Index. Like our own quarterly Alliance infotech spending and sales surveys, it's a real-time look at IT spending and not a stale old 30- to 60-day lagging survey. The Tech Pulse survey takes numbers from supply, demand, shipments, production, employment and investment to get its reading. The 36% annualized year-over-year growth rate suggested in its November 2003 survey mirrors our surveys-the tech recovery is for real. And the growth in personal and home digital entertainment systems and networking will be the technology growth story of 2004.
The dollar stabilizes as tax collection spikes: Growing tax revenues from growing payrolls and corporate income taxes means the deficit spending will peak and contract in 2004. This will take some of the pressure off the dollar and put a floor under it. A weaker dollar is good for the U.S. economy as it will drive up demand for our capital goods. The dollar was in a valuation bubble that hurt our exporters-today's valuation is much more realistic.
Get Over It: The Trade Deficit Is Not A Big Deal:
I think we will finally start to see recognition in the investment world that our trade deficit is NOT the end of the world. Two important points. First, there has never been a country the size of the U.S.'s vis-á-vis other developed countries in the world's history. Size is relevant, and the countries he refers to are so small in contrast to the U.S. that they are not relevant, in my opinion. We are in new economic waters here, there is no relevant history to measure against the U.S. Second-so what? It is natural that we have an imbalance between investment and consumption. We run a trade deficit because:
our economy is growing two to three times faster than Europe or Japan
our population is 20%-30% younger, which impacts our consumption
our return on capital is five to 10 times higher
The bipolar growth engines of the world: U.S. and China drive commodities prices through the roof, especially steel!
We are entering a bipolar world, where China drives global growth alongside the U.S. This has massive effects on commodity markets. Shipping capacity will have to be rationed for the next 24 months at least because of scarce supply. Baltic shipping rates have tripled over the last six months and will continue at historic highs. This means a shortage or demand/supply imbalance in good old steel and coal, along with natural gas. It costs too much to ship the raw materials to China, and with a capacity constraint on shipping, what gets there is not enough. Add in power capacity constraints in China (i.e. not enough electricity) and you have the making of a global steel shortage. Look for $70 per ton prices for steel next year and coal prices up $10 a ton. We're investigating a number of new ballast growth stocks to play the Steel and Coal ChangeWave. Be sure to get on board today so you won't miss out! Click here.
Railcar and Freight Train Shortages in the U.S.: The boom for exporting steel (along with coal and grains) will catch the train industry flat footed here, and we will have a train car shortage in the U.S. in 2004. The bubble for technology in the '90s and the stock market collapse of 2000-2003 has left our basic transportation and raw material industries ill-prepared for the raging growth in the U.S., China and recovering growth in Europe and Japan.
A Food Trend That's Paying Off
The Low-Carb Economy Doubles in 2004:
The diabetes and obesity epidemic has now struck a deep chord in the U.S. and other countries. From a billion-dollar industry two years ago, we see the "Low Carb Economy" (eliminating carbs from diet and emphasizing proteins and natural diet supplementation) as a $30 billion industry by end of 2004. This gigantic shift in eating and personal health habits will bring us MANY new stock winners as this low-carb fad now turns into a long-term dietary transformation.
Corporate IT spending has changed forever, no more "build it and it will work": Now IT spending is for the "cheapest hardware and software possible" with bigger spending on specific business process automation (enhancements that cut human payroll and payoff in months) and business continuity and safety spending as much as needed (protection from hackers, worms, viruses and system failures). In short: the exciting growth in the IT world has gone to personal digital entertainment-at home, on the road, at the office and in your car.
Last week I added a few new stocks for ChangeWave Investing readers to cash in on the new home data networking trend. Get their names today when you subscribe.
I'll tell you about three of the most lucrative stock opportunities our unique Alliance has identified in just a moment. But first, I want to assure you again that our ChangeWave strategy works quite well -- even during the bear market. Several of our stocks are currently UP 50% and 60%. One is up 300% just over a year.
To find out exactly which stocks we're recommending in our ChangeWave portfolios now -- or to get more details on our economic forecast -- click here to accept a no-risk Trial Membership to ChangeWave Investing.
Here's what you'll get when you do:
Immediate online access to ChangeWave buy lists which include our "Ballast" buys -- safe havens and high-dividend payers to see you through the rough times still ahead and our "Aggressive Growth" picks -- which feature key companies in today's hottest, and rare, growth sectors.
Your Daily Market Update -- posted on our website each trading day before the market opens -- with a clear, concise analysis of the day's trading landscape.
Urgent e-mail alerts whenever we uncover tantalizing short-term trading opportunities.
Your Weekly Update via e-mail, dissecting action in the market; explaining what to expect next; and showing you how to profit.
The exclusive ChangeWave Investing website.
Your monthly ChangeWave Investing newsletter (by mail or online).
Plus your 90-day, money-back guarantee of total satisfaction.
Don't wait. Click here now.
Print Report
part #7 ,,,shortages,,,04/20/04
Our 4,200 members share their insights, evaluations and knowledge. We package all the individual research and share our micro and macro analysis with the whole business group. And we give this inside knowledge to our ChangeWave Investing subscribers -- often 30-45 days AHEAD of when that information finally becomes known in the popular press.
Our Clients Are Getting RICH on Early Alliance Forecasts:
Spring 2002: The Alliance identified a burgeoning demand for satellite radio. XM Satellite is up more 300% since December 2002.
January 2002: The Alliance predicted a huge boom for generic manufacturers once proprietary drugs like Allegra came off patent. Lannett Pharmaceuticals soared 365% in '02 alone. Teva Pharmaceutical jumped 35%.
May 2002: The Alliance uncovered an emerging trend away from AOL dial-up Internet access, and the stock was recommended as a short to ChangeWave institutional clients. Five months later those customers pocketed 39% gains...10 months later AOL formally announced significant losses in that very same division. We steered our ChangeWave Investing subscribers away from this disaster long before most investors got a clue.
Fall 2001: A holiday spending Alliance report identified digital cameras and flat panel displays as big ticket items that holiday season. Our clients went long on Photon Dynamics, Zoran and LSI Logic...and bagged quick profits of 10% or more on each stock.
And much more!
Right now, the Alliance has identified three more areas on the verge of EXPLOSIVE GAINS. Don't miss our next wave of profits -- accept a risk-free trial membership to ChangeWave Investing today.
Using our buy, sell, hold stock advice, our ChangeWave Investing members turn this "Alliance advantage" into cold, hard cash. So can you -- if you follow what I have to say today and buy the three stocks I'm going to reveal in this report.
NOT ANOTHER BUBBLE
Here's what I think is important for you to know right now.
1) In 2004, starts, the same momentum players will be back. And many of our favorite spaces and stocks that are getting crushed right now are coming back into very attractive valuations.
If our research is right on their fundamentals, these very same stocks will deliver the great earnings growth and stories that should make them BIG movers next year, too. Call these the "Do-Over" stocks. 2) All the talk about "this is another Bubble" is just plain crap. Let's look at today versus the winter of 1999.
TODAY: IPOs that pop on offering are the ones with BIG earnings. Zero-earnings IPOs flounder and are down 20% on average. 1999: IPOs with no earnings pop 200%-500% on the first day. There were no IPOs of companies with big earnings -- no one wanted them.
TODAY: Forward P/Es for S&P 500 stocks are 17-18. (At $61 a share consensus earnings including stock option expenses) 1999: Forward P/E for S&P 500 stocks was 40-50 due to the amount of stock option expensing.
TODAY: The classic bubble stocks now are single-digit stocks with 30%-50% of value in cash in most cases: Sun, JDS Uniphase, EMC, Human Genome Sciences, Ciena, Corning, Qualcomm, etc. 1999: Those stocks listed above were $100, $200 and $400 per share.
TODAY: Merger and acquisitions are for cash and almost all earnings are accretive immediately. 1999: Mergers were for "funny money" stock and hardly any were accretive.
TODAY: We are in a classic recovery-to-sustainable economic expansion. In other words, the early phase of the business cycle with 5%-6% productivity gains. 1999: We were in the absolute peak of a record business cycle expansion with 2%-3% productivity gains.
I could go on for another three pages, but you get the drift. To call this market another bubble is not only wrong, it screws up your investment strategy.
With ZERO inflation, negative bond returns, 75% manufacturing capacity (meaning there's still slack in the manufacturing world), 5.9% unemployment rates dropping to 5.5% by mid-year, and capital gains taxes DOWN from 40% to 28% to 15% now, the correct investment strategy is stocks -- not bonds or cash. (Especially if you are interested in building a lot of wealth over the next 12-18 months.) Thank goodness so many out there continue to NOT get it.
It is their combined ignorance, denial, despair, fear and loathing that will ensure that the right kinds of stocks will be significantly higher this time next year than they are today. Let's get ready to rumble.
Let's start with the overall market forecast and work from macroeconomics to the micro level. Our first-quarter sales projections from our 4,200 ChangeWave Alliance members correlates to about a 4.5% U.S. GDP growth number in 2004. These surveys suggest that the first and second quarters are going to positively surprise Wall Street forecasters and the "it's only a blip" school of naysayers. With accelerating business capital investment and increased hiring and job creation in 2004, the sweet spot of self-reinforcing phase of the boom-bust business cycle is now in full gear.
Thankfully many, many investors will continue to doubt this absolute fact until they can't stand the pain any longer and decide to add their cash to the markets. This fast start to 2004 is why I think we hit 11,000 on the Dow by April 15 and 11,500 by year end. I expect similar gains on the Nasdaq and S&P-I see a Nasdaq 2,200 by April 15 and 2,400 by year-end and S&P 500 1,180 by April 15 with 1,300 by the close of 2004. Interest rates look surprisingly stable as well. Those calling for huge spikes in interest rates continue to miss the obvious-interest rates are tied to inflation, not economic growth. If you look at the long term and compare rates of inflation to interest rates, it's obvious. Government debt, rates of GDP growth or consumer debt levels are poor interest rate indicators. My call for real chain-weighted inflation in 2004 is 1.8%-2%. This means we should expect slightly higher 10-year (4.6%-4.7%) and 30-year rates (5.3%-5.4%) while 30-year mortgage rates remain at relative historic lows (6.2%-6.3% maximum). All these numbers continue to say one thing: Own stocks for the next one to two years at least. If we can continue to earn 10 years of wealth every 12-18 months, it means you and I can make it to the end of 2005 with 20 years of new wealth on our personal balance sheets. Whoever said that retirement will be financially hard for the new generation of retirees is certainly not a ChangeWave investor!
A Higher Market And A 2004 Landslide Is On The Horizon
Let's get to the microeconomics and the spaces within the $50 trillion world economy that will grow fast enough to earn us 400%-500% MORE wealth than the overall averages. First-as we say on "Bulls & Bears"-predictions! Let's start with the ones we've already touched on:
Corporate earnings growth accelerates in the first and second quarters.
Interest rates rise slower than most project.
The Fed keeps a lid on interest rate targets until after the presidential election, which means inflation continues to be dormant.
The S&P 500 ends the year at 1,300.
Nasdaq Composite ends the year at 2,400.
The Dow closes 2004 at 11,500.
ChangeWave growth stocks beat the market by 400%-500% again (excluding our Ballast Income recommendations).
With all this great economic news, and the Saddam Hussein trial telling the REAL truth about why the U.S.-led invasion was necessary and just, the easiest prediction of all is that President Bush wins in a landslide. This would be good for the equity markets because Bush could use his victory to push a self-directed Social Security plan and continue to beat the drum for lower taxes on dividends.
Print Report
part #6 ,,, shortages 04/20/04
Surprising 2004 Forecast
Here's the great news on the economic expansion -- it's for real
Our latest ChangeWave Alliance survey into information technology spending by corporate America tells us that it's on track to meet expectations in the fourth quarter and increase in Q1 2004. There are pockets of very serious growth -- especially in security software and laptops -- as well as pockets of falling sales, notably in Unix-based servers and platform software for legacy systems.
More importantly, ChangeWave recorded the highest level of "Green Light" or "spend to budget" sentiment we've seen in the last 2 1/2 years, a very important indicator for investors. This shift means visibility into sales will increase for vendors, volatility in sales and sales expectations will decrease, and the risk premium for IT-related companies is lower than it was just one quarter ago. That's great news.
The bottom line is that we see corporate IT spending gaining further momentum as we head towards the first quarter, a key sign of sustainable growth and a strong economy for 2004.
Our proprietary ChangeWave Investing Alliance -- comprised of 4,200 professionals "embedded" in key positions throughout the most critical industries of the American economy -- has uncovered several critical, fundamental shifts in the U.S. economic and market direction, as you'll see.
But first, let me fill in the blanks. Our Alliance members are the "movers-and-shakers" of the business world. The guys who make the decisions on what new equipment to purchase. The researchers developing breakthrough new technologies. Top sales guys in the field. Information systems managers at top corporations. The men and women who control the purse strings. And so on.
These folks are the lifeblood of American business -- and the key to your inside investing advantage. Here's how the Alliance works.
part #5 ,,, shortages 04/20/04
Danger Stocks You Should Dump Immediately
There are dozens of stocks about to find themselves in a world of hurt as this crisis unfolds. The chemical industry is a terrific example.
According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, high natural gas prices in the United States are causing turmoil among U.S. chemical manufacturers, stripping the industry of their long-held global advantage. The paper said that U.S. chemical companies are closing plants, laying off workers and looking to expand their own production abroad because of soaring natural gas prices in this country.
With natural gas prices continuing to buffet the chemical industry, the United States is expected to register a deficit of nine billion dollars in import and export of chemicals this year, the American Chemistry Council has estimated.
I urge you: don't get caught holding the bag. If you own any of these stocks, SELL them now:
DuPont (DD)
Eastman Chemical (EMN)
Dow (DOW)
Lyondell Chemical Company (LYO)
Millennium Chemicals (MCH)
Georgia Gulf (GGC)
My friend, this crisis is REAL and it's IMMINENT. Get the whole story by joining ChangeWave Investing risk free right now. When you do, you'll learn:
The names of select gas royalty trusts yielding up to 13% -- and two to SELL now. Plus one propane play paying over 10% dividends…with over 50% earnings growth this year!
Two key liquid natural gas (LNG) plays that could triple in the next year -- and then triple again.
3 SUPER undervalued gas exploration companies that are about to blow a GUSHER of new cash flow and skyrocket in value as they cash in on $6 gas. These small plays are growing cash flow 200%-300% this year and are still 100%-200% UNDERVALED to their bigger exploration brethren -- for now that is.
Two small gas exploration services companies that will double by next year as Congress lowers the bar for offshore drilling in the U.S. -- our proprietary ChangeWave intelligence confirms that new offshore drilling regulations are a done deal.
Get all this and more immediately online by clicking here now. Don't wait -- time is running out!
Print Report
part #4 ,,,shortages,,,04/20/04
One of the Best Stocks to Own Today--Revealed Here!
This crisis in natural gas prices does not just affect your heating or cooling bill.
By April or May, electricity prices could begin to increase rapidly in every region of the country in which natural gas-fired power generation is important. Peak prices during the summer months could rise 50% or more compared to last summer even in regions in which there is substantial excess generating capacity.
For the U.S. economy as a whole, the negative repercussions could be severe. Substantial energy price changes could affect our whole economy. Just consider the recent California energy crisis as living, breathing proof of this very real risk.
And this upward shift in the price curve for both electricity and natural gas is NOT likely to be short-lived. Instead, it marks the earliest stage of a transition period that may last for much of the rest of this decade. This transition period will leave the U.S. with only one choice: Energy users must shift to new, less conventional sources of supply to meet the rapidly growing demand for natural gas as a fuel to generate electricity. These could come via massive increases in imports of LNG, imports of natural gas from the Arctic Circle in Canada through the MacKenzie Delta Pipeline, massive expansive in ultra-deepwater drilling in the Gulf or other sources.
Unfortunately, NONE of these new sources of supply can be brought on-line rapidly enough to avoid the near-term shortfall in supply that we've been discussing so far.
The best-case scenario -- at least for investors -- is that well-positioned energy companies will make out like bandits after a 20-year dark age for natural gas exploration.
One of my favorite picks right now is Chesapeake Energy (CHK). I've been looking for natural gas exploration companies that are (a) technology leaders, (b) have with the capability of expanding their production significantly, and (C) have more than 60% of their gas unhedged.
All my contacts in the natural gas field say the same thing -- Chesapeake Energy is the play. They have the management, the technology and growing production of natural gas. CHK has interests in nearly 11,000 producing wells in the mid-continent region of the United States and in Texas, New Mexico, Montana and North Dakota, and the company increased its proved reserves by 24% during 2002.
Our main strategy for drillers who are focusing on gas is to buy those that were wounded but not killed by the post-Enron price plunges with the idea that they would hit three specific points:
Increase cash flow by 50%-100% with gas prices in excess of $4.50-$5 now locked in for the next few years at least.
Massively improve the balance sheets with new capital and refinanced debt.
Increase in value by 100% or more in this process by next year.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is on the other side of the spectrum -- it is magnificently financed and is using its strength to buy more and more drilling areas at very attractive prices.
A glance at CHK's quarterly operating figures vs. the year-ago period tells the story. We see rising production and prices in their natural gas and oil products while many expenses have held their ground and net income has grown from a $30 million loss to a $70 million profit. Buy it below $12 and look for it to double or better over the next 12 months.
Remember, you can get the complete list of winners and losers from the natural gas crisis by trying ChangeWave Investing risk free for 90 days. Click here to get these stock picks online today, before winter hits hard and the stocks really start to move.
Print Report
part #3 ,,,shortages 04/20/04
Then the short-term answers has to include:
Then the short-term answers has to include:
More and more drilling where you can drill
Extracting more gas from wells already in production
Living with higher natural gas prices and
Expanding conservation and use of the one energy source we have in abundance -coal
We are and will be investing in ALL these areas for years --and in LNG plays as well
But Weissman summed up the entire case for the growing natural gas crisis and challenges ahead as well as anyone has at the Maryland seminar: "How can anyone believe we are not going to have higher natural gas prices in the next 10 to 15 years? We don't need just one or two or three or four terminals. Instead, we need realistically 15 or 20. That will take many years to achieve."
GAS PLAYS IN THE CATBIRD SEAT
And don't forget our Canadian natural gas trusts -- whoa Nelly! I now can forecast 10%-15% higher dividends in 2004 as both gas and oil prices remain high while excess demand overtakes diminishing supply. And don't forget that 94% of the cash flow we get each month from these foreign dividend payers is TAX FREE!
I hold my trusts in a separate taxable account where I leverage these trusts 50% and $100,000 buys $200,000 of these securities. After I pay my deductible interest cost of 3%, I'm left with an over 20% AFTER-TAX return, and that does not count the appreciation I expect in these securities. Like I've written many times, it sure beats working.
Bottom line: I want to see the energy bill passed to reassess the opportunities here. I think the cold winter and huge spikes in gas prices will be enough to convince three senators who voted against much needed energy law reform to make exploration in the Gulf, Alaska and coal beds of Colorado attractive enough for drillers to invest the $50 billion we need to close our natural gas cap.
After all, it was the Clean Air Act of 1990 that caused this demand/supply imbalance. It's going to take equivalent reform in the laws that cover the supply side of natural gas in the U.S. to prevent this economic expansion from choking and breaking down.
But the complete list of names is only available to ChangeWave Investing subscribers. Click here to try a risk-free trial subscription today and get all of the details right away!
The metrics behind this emergency are easy to explain.
It's as simple as owning the only water well in the desert or being the sole umbrella vendor in a rainstorm--when you have something people HAVE to have, and you are the only place they can get it, you get whatever price the market will bear.
First, the demand case:
Residential demand is growing: More than half of all U.S. homes are heated by natural gas and a great percentage of them are cooled by it as well. That figure rises to approximately 75% when you look at the new homes built in the last 15 years. In addition, the average home built in the last 10 years is nearly 25% larger than those constructed in the '70s and '80s. This adds significantly to energy demand. Industrial demand remains high: Industrial demand has dropped but a fraction of the rate of demand growth.
New power plants: The primary natural gas demand driver is the more than 200 megawatts of new power plants that run almost exclusively on cleaner, more efficient natural gas. In most cases the new power plants were permitted to run gas only (which is 40% more efficient than coal) to meet economic or environmental hurdles. These hurdles remain even if gas prices reach $10 mcf -- 80% higher from here.
Population growth: The U.S. population continues to grow at more than 1% per year and is the fastest growing in the G-8 industrialized world.
Now, the supply problem:
Supplies are dwindling: Existing big gas reserves were initially found in the energy go-go years of the late '70s and '80s and are vastly depleted. Production from existing reservoirs has dropped exponentially every year since 1991. New wells drilled tend to be supplemental wells in lower yielding, high-percentage drilling areas to ensure adequate return on investment.
Risk/reward ratio is out of whack: Potential home run deep-water wells are very expensive to drill (up to $50 million-$75 million per well) and carry substantially higher risk of failure.
Environmental obstacles: With the easy wells drilled and the early wells being tapped faster, the remaining "easy" and big gas fields are in environmentally off-the-table Alaska and Gulf of Mexico locations. Plus, issues concerning drilling on federal land continue to detract from the economic equation.
No quick solutions: With no pipeline from Alaska, even if we started to drill tomorrow it would take 10 years before a cubic foot of natural gas reached the continental U.S.
Tougher financial oversight: Wall Street fundraising standards have risen for gas exploration and production so that balance sheet issues are very crucial for publicly held firms. This limits appetite to drill with gas prices so high.
LNG (liquid natural gas) production growth is stagnant: We have not built a LNG plant in the United States in 30 years. The average permitting timeline runs 12 years from the beginning of the process to the first shovel in the ground.
Rising Canadian demand: Demand in Canada -- which supplies more than 20% of our natural gas -- is growing at similar rates, and this reduces the amount of gas available for exports.
NATURAL GAS PRICES RISE 50% IN A MONTH -- WHAT A SHOCK!
The national press is just warming up to the reality of the natural gas supply/demand imbalance in the U.S. -- along with Wall Street. It was just in early November that Lehman Brothers analysts were advising their customers to plan for "$3.50 gas prices" for 2004.
Holy cow, people who took that advice and shorted natural gas futures as a result got CRUSHED over the last 30 days. Let's look at an article in a recent Washington Post to see what the press is now starting to report.
"Buyers were paying more than $7.10 per thousand cubic feet for gas yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where energy companies and traders bid on large amounts of the fuel. The price has risen by more than 50 percent since the Monday before Thanksgiving. It was $5 per thousand cubic feet a year ago.
"Industry officials say the latest escalation in gas prices is fundamentally due to a thin margin between supplies and demand for the crucial heating and industrial fuel, which Basically it's demand outstripping the supply," said Sean T. Sexton, senior director at Fitch Ratings, a bond rating firm provides almost one-quarter of the nation's energy needs." Wow -- what insight!
"Just as motorists have become used to seeing gasoline prices swing from $1.50 a gallon to $2 and back down in a matter of weeks, households and businesses face wild price gyrations in natural gas prices for at least several more years, the American Gas Association said recently.
"Output from older gas wells has been declining more quickly than expected. Large new gas reserves are not being found or opened up. Meanwhile, the demand for gas keeps growing because it has become the fuel of choice for new electric power plants. The energy bill that Congress has struggled over for two years would not raise production significantly for years, some energy officials say."
"The supply gap should be closed eventually by deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by ship from the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East and Asia, energy officials say. But first, new liquid natural gas facilities costing billions of dollars must win regulators' backing."
Eh, they fail to mention that no new LNG plants have been built in 30 years in the U.S. The EARLIEST a new plant has a prayer to be opened in the U.S. is 2010. What do we do between now and then?
Natural gas futures are like any other security that is subject to wild speculation. But ANYONE shorting the natural gas market here should have their head examined. However, I'd short the contract when it runs to $12 because THAT pricing is not sustainable.
But to short $5-$6 gas when we have the new Pacific Decadal Oscillator (PDO) weather pattern emerging is insane. (The PDO is a 15- to 20-year colder winter pattern that is just following a 15-year warmer winter pattern that DIED last year.)
Our natural gas producers and trusts are cranking like we said they would as winter sets in. Congrats to those who believed our research in the summer and added/started natural gas positions on weakness. I have a few more gas tricks up my sleeve, but the basic message is DO NOT let our recommendations get away from you. When they report Q1, Q2 and Q3 cash flow results, they will trade 50%-100% higher from here. Click here to get on board NOW.
(Editor's Note: The natural gas trusts we own at ChangeWave Investing have appreciated as much as 42% from last year. Cash distributions from one trust are up more than 20% in the last 12 months -- to as high as 13% annual PRE-TAX yield! And monthly dividends are growing as much as 50% from here in some cases. Our natural gas exploration and development stocks are up a rocking 50% THIS YEAR...our top storage tank play has soared over 300% and we're just now cherry picking another small handful of well-positioned stocks that I expect to DOUBLE IN PRICE or better over the next nine to 12 months as this crisis plays out. In this report, I'll tell you about one of my favorite "crisis picks" right now, plus I'll give you the names of 8 stocks about to get slammed as this emergency unfolds. But, you've got to join now before these stocks peak late in the winter. For the full list of natural gas winners and losers, try ChangeWave Investing risk free for 90 days now. I'm not just riding on one or two winners here. I have a diversified list of Winners AND Losers that you must act on NOW if you want to profit from this crisis today, before winter hits hard! Click here now.) For the full list of natural gas winners and losers, try ChangeWave Investing risk free for 90 days now. Click here.
Print Report
part # 2 for shortages,,,04/20/04
Dear Investor,
The Story: The Supply/Demand Math Does NOT ADD UP
I can make this real simple. There is a large, growing gap between natural gas demand and natural gas supply that is about to spike prices.
This will wreak havoc on gas consumers and energy utilities…and drive the earnings power of natural gas producers sky high for the foreseeable future.
What's more, this shortage is NOT a one-year event -- it is a long-term secular shortage. Demand for natural gas exceeds new production, and without drastic curtailment of gas usage or dramatic growth of exploration and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, the shortage will get worse, not better.
THE NATURAL GAS STORY TAKES FLIGHT
I sort of feel that the natural gas story we've been telling has a parallel to the horse SeaBiscuit -- not appreciated, with no believers until the facts become too much to ignore.
The $6 gas we projected has come with a vengeance -- up from $4.35 on Nov. 4. I hate to say "I told you so," but sometimes I can't help it.
As we have forecasted all this year, natural gas prices have been only saved by the abnormal summer weather. Well, I've got news for you: The 59 billion cubic feet drop of gas in storage recently will increase to a 120 billion cubic feet drop for sure. We normally don't see a triple-digit draw down till much later in the season, but this is NOT going to be a normal winter weather-wise.
I'm preparing a more detailed Natural Gas Investment Boom/Supply Crisis report for release to ChangeWave Investing subscribers this month (if you aren't already a subscriber-consider a risk-free trial subscription today!) , but I'll cut to the chase:
Have you heard of the Pacific Decadal Oscillator (PDO)? This weather pattern was discovered in 1996. "Pacific" refers to the slow fluctuations of water temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean. "Decadal" refers to a trend that lasts multiple decades, and "oscillator" means that the pattern moves back and forth between phases.
The PDO is similar to the well-known El Nino effect, but it's far less known than its 100-year-old cousin. Well, not for long.
According to expert researchers on the PDO, we have just finished a 20-year warm cycle in the U.S. and are starting the early stages of a cold cycle. When the PDO is in its cool phase, it drives frigid Artic Air southward into the U.S. in our winter season. (For an example of how this affects the weather, check the East Coast conditions today.)
Withdrawals from gas storage correlate with the number of days temperatures are under 65 in the key gas heating areas -- i.e. the central Mid-Atlantic and eastern regions of the U.S. With last winter only being 1.2% cooler than average, we withdrew a record 2.55 trillion cubic feet of gas -- and nearly ran out of the fuel in storage.
This year will in all likelihood be colder, and according to government records we will produce 4% LESS gas from existing reservoirs.
Since most underground storage facilities are damaged if less than 0.5 trillion cubic feet of gas is not kept in the formations, we have a serious problem on our hands. Like I said in our original report, our strategy for natural gas in this country has been to pray for warm winters.
We've run out of luck, I'm afraid. With a 20% probability of a warmer-than-normal winter (remember, last winter was normal -- the previous four were NOT) and a 50% chance of a colder-than-normal winter, seeing 2004 gas prices that are higher than this year is an unfortunate conclusion that we must come to as investors.
NO HELP FROM THE GREAT WHITE NORTH
Bear in mind, too, that Canada will cut exports to us in 2004 because they need more and more of their gas to extract some of the 186 billion barrels of oil they have locked up in their tar sands. We got 15% of the 22 trillion cubic feet of gas we used in 2002 from our friends to the north. Gas available for export DROPPED 2% in 2003 year and is on trend to drop another 3% this year.
Understand, too, that the sharp decline in the rate of gas production from existing wells is increasing in the U.S. -- and we are not replacing that depletion. We are now running 1,200 drilling rigs in the U.S. -- up from 800 in early 2000s. Yet we are producing LESS gas with 30% more drilling. The sophisticated 3-D seismic technology and horizontal drilling is depleting our existing reserves FASTER than just five years ago.
Since storage is only 15% of demand, and our Canadian imports will be lower at the same time, we will produce 3%-4% LESS gas in 2004 than 2003 -- we're stuck.
And now that our petroleum crisis is even more profound than our natural gas crisis (for now), we're faced with the Hobbsian choice of all time: become even more dependent on the Middle East for petroleum or pay higher prices of natural gas and have Canada build out its tar sand petroleum extraction business.
LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS TO THE RESCUE -- IN 2025
As North American natural gas supplies inevitably fade, we will massively increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is natural gas that must be cooled to minus 259 degrees Fahrenheit to convert it to liquid form before it can be transported by ship.)
The three main sources of LNG are Qatar, Iran and Russia, but the enviro-nazi element in the U.S. is making it impossible to build more LNG plants. So we're stuck there, too.
Less than 1% of the U.S. natural gas supply now comes from LNG, but by 2025, LNG imports are projected to account for 12% of U.S. supplies.
"Unless we stop using it, we need to import it," according to Richard Hoffmann, director of the division of gas-environment and engineering for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. "Imports from Canada are going to decline over time."
With 96% of natural gas reserves outside of North America, the United States is poised to launch an enormous campaign to build new LNG terminals.
But even there we have huge problems. We only have four working LNG receiving plants in the U.S., and we not built a new one in 20 years. With permitting roadblocks it will be 20 years before we stem our natural gas gap with LNG.
And even with the prospect of LNG, Weissman says the regulatory approval process could take at least six years, with another four to six years to build a facility. Each facility can cost anywhere from $2 billion to $7 billion.
Aside from LNG, a projected 2013 start-up of the Alaska gas pipeline remains hopelessly stuck in the regulatory mud.
Eco-extrmists have placed restrictions and environmental pressures on the colossal reserves of natural gas in the lower 48 states. In the Rocky Mountain area alone, experts forecast roughly 29 percent of reserves, or 69 trillion cubic feet of gas, is currently off-limits to exploration and development.
And finally -- with coal-fueled power plants virtually un-permittable in most areas of the U.S. -- and nuclear power in the same sad state-the only logical expectation for natural gas supply and demand in the U.S. is ever more out of balance.
THE INDUSTRIAL FACTOR
And now a new wild card in gas demand has emerged -- industrial consumption.
With gas prices spiraling over the last four to five years, much of the big industrial natural gas users have simply closed plants and moved offshore to lower prices.
Take, for example, the fertilizer industry in the U.S., which had 20% of its capacity closed down PERMANENTLY in the U.S. due to greater than $5 natural gas and no ability to pass-on higher costs to their customers (i.e. no pricing power).
Well, guess what? Fertilizer prices are now skyrocketing because demand for basic foods like corn and soybeans from China and Brazil (and to a smaller extent Russia and India) have driven crops prices to multiyear highs.
Higher crops prices mean farmers can pay more for their key ingredient -- dimonium phosphate fertilizer. And what is the key feedstock for fertilizer? Natural gas.
With dimonium phosphate at $198 a ton vs. $115 four years ago -- making fertilizer is now suddenly VERY profitable no matter what the cost of natural gas. With no end in crop demand in the near future, industrial use of natural gas is going to grow for the very first time in a period where prices exceed $5. Bad timing.
Another "dead industry" coming back to life in the U.S. is steel.
Steel is another BIG user of natural gas -- take coke, sand and natural gas in a blast furnace and you get steel. With the price of a hot-rolled steel band now $580 a ton versus $250 last year, we have ANOTHER big user of natural gas back in the market.
Finally, the much higher efficiency power plants we now have in the U.S. make more money producing electricity with gas at $6 than with crude at $30, so even the demand there is not killed by $6 natural gas.
If the solutions to this demand imbalance include:
Opening up gas exploration where no one seems to be able to get Congress to approve it
Building 20 new nuclear power plants that everyone needs but no one wants in their back yard
Adding 15-20 LNG terminals that will take a minimum of 10 years to complete even if they were 100% approved and funded TODAY
Building an Alaska Pipeline which has never gotten CLOSE to a winning vote
Print Report
part #1 04/20/04 ,,,here is some stuff for the shortages still that exist and going to get worst from changing wave,investor place. actually taipan stuff.
Dear Investor,
There are two words that Americans don't ever want to hear together again: energy crisis.
Those of us old enough to remember the last one--and how it slammed our economy--do not want to relive those days again, ever. But there are factors at work right now to bring those words back into the daily headlines.
This one will be different, however. There WON'T be long lines at the gas pump. The oil barons at OPEC WON'T be the culprits behind it. The numbers on your license plate WON'T have any influence on what day you get in line.
This coming crisis won't be about the price of gasoline.
This time it's natural gas.
Warren Buffett already recognizes the opportunities. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is talking about the problem. And rumblings about natural gas are starting to come from the Senate chambers as hearings on energy proposals begin.
Yes, if you are good at reading between the headlines, the story is slowly building. I've even run across a few investors who understand the problem.
But most investors have not yet (a) grasped what's happening, or (b) figured out where the really big money is going to be made as this crisis unfolds.
ASK THE EXPERTS
Natural gas utilities, with 64 million customers in the U.S. , provide 24% of all energy consumed. Their gas heats and cools millions of homes, and is increasingly used to generate electricity. Natural gas is both a fuel and a feedstock for the nation's $460 billion chemical industry and its 1 million employees.
Yet our research into the supply and demand balance of North American natural gas reserves and production vs. mandated and fixed consumption strongly disagrees with thoughts of natural gas as an abundant resource for energy supplies.
We are not alone in this perspective
One of the real experts in the industry is Andrew Weissman, a Harvard Law School grad who gave up practicing law and focused his 26-year career on the American energy sector. He has been uncannily correct in his forecasts about natural gas, and his views support our position as perhaps no other "expert" has.
At a recent energy seminar at the University of Maryland , Weissman cited a number of factors in his research that points to long term secular natural gas prices above $5 for the rest of this decade. He said natural gas-fired power plants are still the key gas consumer driving volatility, putting tremendous pressure on electricity prices as well as spot gas prices.
Weissman doesn't think these are short-term events, but early warning signs of things to come. He told the seminar that the pending natural gas shortage will present the biggest challenge facing energy providers and the U.S. economy for most of the next decade.
As evidence, Weissman pointed to a September 2003 study by the National Petroleum Council, which concluded that North America is fast approaching a time in which it will no longer be self-reliant in meeting its natural gas needs.
"I think we are heading towards an enormous problem," Weissman said. "More often than not in the next decade we will have severe shortages."
He blames the problem on two events. First, amendments to the federal Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act in 1987 removed restrictions on the use of natural gas in power generation. But as the federal government was setting the stage for a deregulated natural gas market, most major gas fields in North America were rapidly aging. This led to a growth in natural gas demand of more than 40% between 1986 and 1997.
Then a fundamental shift (which we call a ChangeQuake) occurred in the market in the late ‘90s as the use of natural gas to generate electricity shot up by more than 500 billion cubic feet.
"That's a huge increase," Weissman said. "It went up again in 1999. It went up again in 2000."
YEP, IT'S A REAL CRISIS
As we've said for months, you can run but you cannot hide from the immutable truth about natural gas supply vs. consumption in the U.S. Mandated usage goes up 3%-4% each year while our production from existing reservoirs goes down 3%-4%. Eighty percent (80%) of our gas in 2004 will come from a base of reservoirs that has seen production decline at rates near 25% a year. The balance of gas comes from Canada (which will export at least 3% less gas to us in 2004) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Today natural gas is the fuel used for about 19% of U.S. electric power generation. More than 80% of the new power generation facilities built in 2003 were gas powered, and most scheduled for construction from now through 2008 are gas fueled as well.
Yet many in the analyst community -- and Congress for that matter -- seem to think $2-$3 gas is right around the corner as the high prices of today somehow bring out massive new gas production. The facts clearly do not support this popular myth.
We at ChangeWave Investing know where the smart money is going. Let me be your guide.
Knowledge is power, my friends, and after you read this report, you'll understand why it is so vitally important for investors like you to grab a board and ride this building ChangeWave to monster profits that we may not see again for years. Let's get wet.
Print Report Continue
very interesting arctec, mid-america energy holdings and buffet's greed. hmmmm. canada is very smart to bring in transcanada corp., trp for leverage talks and concerns for the canadian pipeline.
mid-america , greed 5yr. guaranteed monopoly exclusive? hmmm.
i wonder if this will cover the beaufort sea area?
this will be good for the company we have talked about.
I SEE TRP IS AROUND $20 A SHARE,,,
the market reflects some of the greenspanomics in late trading today.
i wonder where gold went today?
http://www.kitco.com
silver is below $8.00 and
SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 20 hrs. 53 mins.
Apr 20, 2004 16:35 NY Time
Bid/Ask 394.40 - 394.90
Low/High 394.10 - 402.30
Change -3.00 -0.75%
30daychg -17.70 -4.30%
1year chg +67.40 +20.61% / this is still holding good for gold investors.
this could help the v-net beverage business, 04/20/04
vntb ,,,
V-Net Beverage Launches New Corporate Website; New VNTB Website in Response to Increased Interest by Investors and Customers
BLUE ISLAND, Ill., Apr 20, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- V-Net Beverage, Inc. (Pink Sheets:VNTB) today announced the debut of its new corporate website http://www.VNTB.biz to meet the recent increase in interest in VNTB by investors and the marketplace, and to better inform and communicate with customers and the investment community.
With the recent appointment of V-Net Beverage, Inc.'s new President, Robert Corr in January, and several positive announcements by the company this year, "interest has been growing in our company and its investment opportunities, and we see our new corporate website as a positive way to communicate with the general public and our shareholders," stated Corr. Mr. Corr brings 25 years of Specialty Beverage experience to V-Net Beverage. Corr in 1978 was a pioneer in the functional beverage market with the introduction of Ginseng Rush. Today, Ginseng Rush, a natural energy soda, continues to be a popular selling brand in the Specialty Beverage sector.
Corr went on to say, "Keeping our shareholders, the investment community and our market more informed about the great future of V-Net is a top priority at this point. We plan on using our corporate website along with an aggressive marketing plan to get the word out." V-Net also plans to expand its current investor relations capabilities in the near future.
V-Net Beverages, Inc. worked closely with Evergreen Marketing, Inc. to create the new corporate website. Evergreen Marketing has also been retained by V-Net to assist in various marketing and consulting services which include helping create a supportive relationship between the company and its shareholders. For more information about Evergreen Marketing, Inc. or their subsidiary The Green Baron Investors Society visit them on the web at
http://www.EvergreenMarketingInc.com and http://www.TheGreenBaron.com.
This press release contains statements, which may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements include statements regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of V-Net Beverage Inc., and members of their management as well as the assumptions on which such statements are based. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements. Important factors currently known to management that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-statements include fluctuation of operating results, the ability to compete successfully and the ability to complete before-mentioned transactions. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes to future operating results.
SOURCE: V-Net Beverages, Inc.
CONTACT: V-Net Beverages, Inc.
Robert Corr, 708-389-6625
hi jenna, any comments for DJT?
will djt go under?
i know telecom must go on but this way for the original shareholders. what a big bunch of crooks and then let them
be debt free. many telecom co's didn't like this and the way they let MCIAV become a debt free company again.
i think the courts and s.e.c. let one the biggest capers
off the hook from what i can see for all original shareholders.
nice comments arctec for us and to see the crooked courts and s.e.c. boys let mciav revolve again. it isn't right for the
original shareholders to hold the bag for these crooks.
greenspanomics is on right now on cnbc. it will be good and
look for the tips he gives about market players for this qtr.
listen for the dollar and gold plays for this qtr. too.
http://www.kitco.com
i see lrcm is getting the old squeeze play by the m/m/m boys.
they are looking for cheap shares. this has to be the best subpenny out there for appreciation.
this lrcm has gone down in small volume day trading.
i'm surprise more isn't being said about lrcm values.
arctec,i didn't get to hear greenspanomics today. i remember him saying interest rates will adjust to the market calls.
he says they automatically changes as the market goes with inflation and jobs. greenspanomics are working and they stay low til bush gives his recovery system speech is working for all and all the countries in the wto stuff. this will probably at the reps convention in july?
the inst's are trying to be the caller for the increases in the interest rates and have been wrong so far this year.
i don't see any til the elections are over for bush and the dems.
how did i get lexr mixed with mt.blanc? i know i was having some problems with changing items. sorry for the lexr title
mt.blanc mix.
nothing wrong doing options. they do let you leverage your bet.