The Trading Floor

[mick]

part #12,,,shortages 04/20/04
9 "Dead Man Walking" Stocks to SELL Now

You've placed your bets now take your seats. You are not likely to read the information I'm about to share with you anywhere else for quite some time -- but it could save you a fortune (and make you a pretty fat penny, too) if you act now, before most other investors understand what's going on.

The Information Technology industry is undergoing a massive, structural shift that will radically transform the way the entire $2 trillion industry does business. We're calling it the commoditization of IT and it works like this.

Generic IT is about to have the same effect on IT manufacturers as Generic Pharmaceuticals have had on branded prescription drugs. (If you need reminding about where the money's being made in pharma these days, consider this: In its latest earnings report Schering Plough reported that 30 days after its drug Claritin went over-the-counter they lost 97% of their earnings from the drug!). Going forward, customers are not going to pony up for proprietary infrastructure technology. It's over. So are traditional tech companies.

According to recent findings from our ChangeWave Alliance, the new rules of IT management will be as new as the rules that changed post-Internet.

The latest ChangeWave Alliance survey shows how this structural shift is beginning to shake out. Corporate IT spending has changed forever, no more "build it and it will work." In our Q3 IT Spending Survey conducted in early summer, the alliance showed a significant improvement in IT spending, led by a surprising surge in laptops. Overall, 29% of Alliance members reported their company would be increasing IT spending for Q3, while only 16% reported a decrease (or no spending at all). The positive 13 percentage point differential is the largest seen in an IT survey since February 2002. And, looking ahead at the entire second half of 2003, 32% reported their company's overall IT spending budget will be great than the first half of 2003, while only 18% predicted it will be less than the first half.

But, where is that IT money going? It's going towards technology that enables flexibility, security and high-speed communication. A couple 2004 trends I'll share with you now include:

Wireless Laptops and Handheld Computing: In 2004, the wireless laptop computer becomes the computing and information hardware of choice.
Network Security Software and Hardware: IT spending is focused on labor-saving IT and network security software and hardware. Competitive advantage comes from 100% uptime for IT, not from the IT itself.
Last but definitely not least, the "Next Big Thing" is on the way for computing as we've known it. There is an obsolescence factor in IT that is about to deliver REAL demand for a PC replacement cycle. In 2004-2005, we are set to unleash the greatest change in PC computing since Windows or Y2K. Our ChangeWave subscribers have already been hearing about these structural shifts over the past month.

Three major structural shifts (what we call ChangeQuakes) will combine in the next 12-24 months that put us today on the precipice of a PC upgrade cycle that will make Y2K look like a tea party. My main point? Since the use of PCs and software is the linchpin to the 5%-6% productivity gains we've experienced in our economy, U.S. businesses will have no choice but to upgrade their systems to tap this profoundly richer and faster computing world that is about to deliver a one-two-three punch to the IT industry. In the January issue of ChangeWave Investing I give readers the complete story. Get it immediately online today when you subscribe. Don't miss out click here now!

I'm not on drugs. I'm not kidding either. This transformational shift is as profound as the day after Mark Andreessen allowed the downloading of the Mosaic browser and started the modern day Internet mania.

The implications of this transition are literally staggering -- so are the investment ramifications.

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