The Trading Floor

[mick]

part #8 ,,, shortages 04/20/04
Trends We're Looking To Invest In During 2004



Huge Profits --
Despite the Bear Market

While most head-in-the-sand investment advisors were telling you to "buy and hold 'cheap' stocks" and begging you to focus on "the long term," our ChangeWave Investing members were avoiding disastrous blow-ups and making money in the here and now:

-- We kept our investors OUT of the Tech Wreck stock meltdown that resulted in 70%, 80%, 90% capital losses.

-- Several of our stocks are currently UP 50% and 60%. One is up 300% in just over a year.

YOU can STILL cash in. Join us now risk free.




Now for the more difficult ones. These forecasts and predictions form the basis of our investment focus for 2004.

Colder-than-normal weather in the Midwest and Eastern U.S.: The Pacific Decadal Oscillator (PDO) we described earlier in this report means early cold winter weather continues.
Natural gas prices average $6.50 in 2004 (with a $5.50-$12 trading range).
The natural gas crisis gets an Energy Bill passed by spring. It takes a crisis to get action in our democracy -that's a fact. And the natural gas price crisis that will be raging this winter and spring will get a bill passed that includes tax credits and other benefits for drilling in hard-to-reach gas fields.
The Jobless Recovery Becomes a Job Creation Frenzy-Unemployment Rate at 5.4% by year-end 2004: What the pessimists about sustainable recovery are missing is that jobs are being created AND consumer spending is rising.
Technology demand surprises forecasters-spending up 18% overall: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has a tech demand and spending index that few know of called the Tech Pulse Index. Like our own quarterly Alliance infotech spending and sales surveys, it's a real-time look at IT spending and not a stale old 30- to 60-day lagging survey. The Tech Pulse survey takes numbers from supply, demand, shipments, production, employment and investment to get its reading. The 36% annualized year-over-year growth rate suggested in its November 2003 survey mirrors our surveys-the tech recovery is for real. And the growth in personal and home digital entertainment systems and networking will be the technology growth story of 2004.
The dollar stabilizes as tax collection spikes: Growing tax revenues from growing payrolls and corporate income taxes means the deficit spending will peak and contract in 2004. This will take some of the pressure off the dollar and put a floor under it. A weaker dollar is good for the U.S. economy as it will drive up demand for our capital goods. The dollar was in a valuation bubble that hurt our exporters-today's valuation is much more realistic.
Get Over It: The Trade Deficit Is Not A Big Deal:
I think we will finally start to see recognition in the investment world that our trade deficit is NOT the end of the world. Two important points. First, there has never been a country the size of the U.S.'s vis-á-vis other developed countries in the world's history. Size is relevant, and the countries he refers to are so small in contrast to the U.S. that they are not relevant, in my opinion. We are in new economic waters here, there is no relevant history to measure against the U.S. Second-so what? It is natural that we have an imbalance between investment and consumption. We run a trade deficit because:
our economy is growing two to three times faster than Europe or Japan
our population is 20%-30% younger, which impacts our consumption
our return on capital is five to 10 times higher
The bipolar growth engines of the world: U.S. and China drive commodities prices through the roof, especially steel!
We are entering a bipolar world, where China drives global growth alongside the U.S. This has massive effects on commodity markets. Shipping capacity will have to be rationed for the next 24 months at least because of scarce supply. Baltic shipping rates have tripled over the last six months and will continue at historic highs. This means a shortage or demand/supply imbalance in good old steel and coal, along with natural gas. It costs too much to ship the raw materials to China, and with a capacity constraint on shipping, what gets there is not enough. Add in power capacity constraints in China (i.e. not enough electricity) and you have the making of a global steel shortage. Look for $70 per ton prices for steel next year and coal prices up $10 a ton. We're investigating a number of new ballast growth stocks to play the Steel and Coal ChangeWave. Be sure to get on board today so you won't miss out! Click here.
Railcar and Freight Train Shortages in the U.S.: The boom for exporting steel (along with coal and grains) will catch the train industry flat footed here, and we will have a train car shortage in the U.S. in 2004. The bubble for technology in the '90s and the stock market collapse of 2000-2003 has left our basic transportation and raw material industries ill-prepared for the raging growth in the U.S., China and recovering growth in Europe and Japan.
A Food Trend That's Paying Off
The Low-Carb Economy Doubles in 2004:
The diabetes and obesity epidemic has now struck a deep chord in the U.S. and other countries. From a billion-dollar industry two years ago, we see the "Low Carb Economy" (eliminating carbs from diet and emphasizing proteins and natural diet supplementation) as a $30 billion industry by end of 2004. This gigantic shift in eating and personal health habits will bring us MANY new stock winners as this low-carb fad now turns into a long-term dietary transformation.
Corporate IT spending has changed forever, no more "build it and it will work": Now IT spending is for the "cheapest hardware and software possible" with bigger spending on specific business process automation (enhancements that cut human payroll and payoff in months) and business continuity and safety spending as much as needed (protection from hackers, worms, viruses and system failures). In short: the exciting growth in the IT world has gone to personal digital entertainment-at home, on the road, at the office and in your car.
Last week I added a few new stocks for ChangeWave Investing readers to cash in on the new home data networking trend. Get their names today when you subscribe.

I'll tell you about three of the most lucrative stock opportunities our unique Alliance has identified in just a moment. But first, I want to assure you again that our ChangeWave strategy works quite well -- even during the bear market. Several of our stocks are currently UP 50% and 60%. One is up 300% just over a year.

To find out exactly which stocks we're recommending in our ChangeWave portfolios now -- or to get more details on our economic forecast -- click here to accept a no-risk Trial Membership to ChangeWave Investing.

Here's what you'll get when you do:

Immediate online access to ChangeWave buy lists which include our "Ballast" buys -- safe havens and high-dividend payers to see you through the rough times still ahead and our "Aggressive Growth" picks -- which feature key companies in today's hottest, and rare, growth sectors.
Your Daily Market Update -- posted on our website each trading day before the market opens -- with a clear, concise analysis of the day's trading landscape.
Urgent e-mail alerts whenever we uncover tantalizing short-term trading opportunities.
Your Weekly Update via e-mail, dissecting action in the market; explaining what to expect next; and showing you how to profit.
The exclusive ChangeWave Investing website.
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