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I Agree.
I think these guys raise some really important fundamental questions concerning valuation.
Show us the "true" numbers.
--------------------
As an aside -- I still think these funds may be legitimately short the common and the bonds. Not sure if they are a true long / short fund -- which might be how Steelhead played it differently.
In less than 10 days, we will have the new "short" position on ABWTQ -- over 1.2 million shares short.
---------------
Ergodoc -- happy to hear that you are feeling much better.
Morning Glance - Bonds at Par, right now
Last Updated: 6/29/2010
Corporate Bond Search Results Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Ratings Last Sale
Include in
Watchlist Bond Symbol Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Callable Moody's S&P Fitch Price Yield
BOW.GB BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.00 08/01/2009 No NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GB ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.88 08/01/2009 Yes NR NR C 99.882 -
BOW.GK BOWATER INCORPORATED 4.32 03/15/2010 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GH ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.55 08/01/2010 Yes NR NR C 99.781 -
ABY.GN ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 7.75 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GO ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 4.82 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GA BOWATER CANADA FINANCE CORPORATION 7.95 11/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GD BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.50 10/15/2012 No NR NR C 99.636 -
BOW.GJ BOWATER INCORPORATED 6.50 06/15/2013 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GK ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 6.00 06/20/2013 Yes NR NR C 99.259 -
ABY.GP ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 8.38 04/01/2015 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GD ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.40 04/01/2018 No NR NR C 99.287 -
BOW.GC BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.38 12/15/2021 No NR NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.50 04/01/2028 No NR NR C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.50 08/01/2029 Yes NR NR C 99.449 -
ABY.GI ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.85 08/01/2030 Yes NR NR C 99.983 -
Search Criteria
Bond Type: Corporate Symbol: abwtq
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Lot's of talk on NakedS of BP (and Alex)
Recent forecasts call for Cat2 and landfall somewhere between Brownsville and CorpusC.
Algor. Trading on Tembec still says deal with Tembec and ABWTQ, but I hear these guys can set the price on the close with one trade at 3:59:59 -- just to make the chart look pretty.
2.08 less 1.00 = 1.08 which is about the same as the 0.108 that AbiBow is trading at since last June.
What's it going to be.
Dav1234 -- anyone know where he is? Could he be an insider of ABWTQ -- confidentiality agreement?
Bonds still trading Par this morning
From FINRA web-site
Last Updated: 6/28/2010
Corporate Bond Search Results Monday, June 28, 2010
Ratings Last Sale
Include in
Watchlist Bond Symbol Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Callable Moody's S&P Fitch Price Yield
BOW.GB BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.00 08/01/2009 No NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GB ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.88 08/01/2009 Yes NR NR C 99.882 -
BOW.GK BOWATER INCORPORATED 4.32 03/15/2010 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GH ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.55 08/01/2010 Yes NR NR C 99.781 -
ABY.GN ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 7.75 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GO ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 4.82 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GA BOWATER CANADA FINANCE CORPORATION 7.95 11/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GD BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.50 10/15/2012 No NR NR C 99.636 -
BOW.GJ BOWATER INCORPORATED 6.50 06/15/2013 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GK ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 6.00 06/20/2013 Yes NR NR C 99.259 -
ABY.GP ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 8.38 04/01/2015 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GD ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.40 04/01/2018 No NR NR C 99.287 -
BOW.GC BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.38 12/15/2021 No NR NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.50 04/01/2028 No NR NR C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.50 08/01/2029 Yes NR NR C 99.449 -
ABY.GI ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.85 08/01/2030 Yes NR NR C 99.983 -
Search Criteria
Bond Type: Corporate Symbol: abwtq
Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Interactive Data.
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1st Atlantic Tropical Storm
appears imminent. From another board.
Latest on developing tropical depression 12 minutes ago Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
The first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase. The storm has developed a surface circulation near 16.5N, 82.5W at 8am EDT, about 100 miles northeast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This is far enough from land that development will be slowed only slightly. Satellite loops show a poorly organized system, with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the developing storm is affecting the weather across the entire Western Caribbean, and bands of heavy thunderstorms are quickly building over a large region. Pressures at ground stations and buoys all across the Western Caribbean have been falling significantly over the past day (Figure 2.) Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is not much dry air to slow down development. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 - 15 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 - 15 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L is a combination of lack of spin and wind shear. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated circulation, which will need to tighten up in order for 93L to become a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 93L at 2pm EDT this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed.
oldmanknows
--------------------
Noticed the trade on Abi-Bow and Tembec took a while to get going this morning. Trading Ratio still appears to be the same. OMG -- can there be a deal -- or is it just Wall Street's algo program.
imo, Tembec bids/offers look so embarrassing (mm's just playing same board lots on bid and ask -- can it get any more obvious that the trading game is rigged.
-----------------
Just wait for lumber to run -- and then in connection with the application for the EC, start making waves in the press.
2 billion dollars stolen from s/hers' and we want it back. Start the injunction process -- and let's get to the negotiating table.
GLTA over the weekend and let's hope the shorts need to cover on Monday as a result of NEW demand for Lumber.
Is this the "technical bottom" though?
imo, many times that things appear in print -- it's about time that they turn the other way.
GS made a market call on a Hyper Cycle for both Pulp and for Lumber.
Since lumber represents the majority of a cost of a new home -- you would expect that it would go back up to reflect the full cycle cost of building that new home.
Further, it can be argued that there are about 500,000 old energy inefficient, or termite infested or cockroach infested homes / apartment complexes in the US right now -- but Gov'ts do not know how to knock them down (take them off the market for re-sale or renting), simply because they don't hold the paper / deeds to them.
---------------------
If this storm hits, I think a lot of shorts will be covering.
Enjoy this animation link of the GOM for as long as this one lasts.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/caribbeansatellite_large_animated.html
PS I am hoping that this one is the real deal (Cat 5), becuase of what is happening to BP Common right now -- naked shorts and CDS blowing out.
---------------
Separately,
New reports came out this morning from independent scientists showing that the sea-bed floor of the GOM (a few miles from the BP existing well) have been permanently damaged. Although the report does not lay blame -- it does say, that it is unknown at this time, whether the normal plates moving beneath the Ocean were causing this condition.
What is known, however is that the sea-surface bed has been disturbed largely due to the release of pressure from gases and liquids that were previously in a resting state.
It is also unknown whether the NEW Well -- which is being drilled may be having a negative impact to the bed floor, as well releasing more gases / pressure from the earth.
I would expect ABWTQ to raise objections
on this until their NAFTA Claim is settled. I do not think Abitibi-Bowater will just simply walk away.
Re: Valuation of Canadian Generation Assets
Looks like the value has just gone up quite a bit.
Electricity Industry Welcomes Prospect of Improved Predictability
OTTAWA, June 24 /CNW Telbec/ - On June 23, 2010, the Honourable Jim Prentice, Minister of the Environment, announced that the Government of Canada will move forward with regulations to address greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired electricity generation.
The proposed regulations are scheduled to come into effect on July 1, 2015 and are expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 15 MT.
The electricity sector appreciates the federal government's recognition that Canada's coal-fired generating facilities are assets that have long lives and serve as an important part of the country's electricity generation mix. The industry welcomes the prospect of improved predictability in government decision-making now that the policy framework is established, and looks forward to working with the government in developing these regulations.
"This is good news for all Canadians. These regulations wil mean real reductions in greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxide, sulphur dioxide, and particulate matter," said Pierre Guimond, President and CEO of the Canadian Electricity Association. "While the economic downturn is behind us, the electricity industry must plan ahead to meet the challenges of tomorrow. Climate change mitigation and adaptation will be one of these key challenges, especially while meeting anticipated long-term growth in Canada's electricity demand. Working in cooperation with government at all levels will ensure we meet this important mandate for the economic and social well being of all Canadians."
About the CEA
Canadian Electricity Association (CEA) members generate, transmit and distribute electrical energy to industrial, commercial, residential and institutional customers across Canada every day. From vertically integrated electric utilities, to power marketers, to the manufacturers and suppliers of materials, technology and services that keep the industry running smoothly - all are represented by this national industry association. Participation in Sustainable Electricity is a condition of CEA membership.
For further information: Francis Bradley, Vice President, tel: 613-230-5027, cel: 613-218-6548, email: bradley@electricity.ca; Louisa Hood, Director, Communications, tel: 613-688-2954, cel: 613-513-6990, email: hood@electricity.ca
------------------------
Also found this blurb on Cap & Trade which will affect their entire portfolio of assets (for valuation purposes).
Carbon emission regulations are imminent in Canada. Regulatory legislation to constrain carbon emissions are emerging on provincial, regional and national levels across Canada. In addition, world leaders are being pressured to make real and measurable commitments to combat climate change during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.
Recent greenhouse gas emission reporting regulations have passed legislation in both Ontario and British Columbia, announcing annual reporting requirements to begin January 2010. It can be said that these regulations are supporting the development and implementation of a cap and trade program nationally.
United States and Canadian cross-border alignment is essential for success. As carbon markets develop businesses need to evaluate the opportunities and challenges facing carbon market participation.
All Eyes on the GOM and the Carribean
Many are thinking that if this storm materializes, it will likely be another very destructive one.
Good for demand for lumber -- not to mention the millions of people worldwide suddenly homeless, as a result of floods (China, Brazil, Canada, US). So far, Arizona fires are a big zero, though.
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/epacstorm4/caribbeansatellite_large.html
Lumber Charts -- looks to fill the last GAP
Looks to fill the last GAP on the Continuous Charts.
Re: Stalking Horse Bidding (363 Sale -- looks like those on the EC should take note that this has direct implications with NOL's) (GM, and Ph.Coyotes and Jim Basille are two good examples).
That said, Tembec is being very vague about their refinancing plans from last week's press release. "certain parties" -- GS / Anonymous keeps on buying Tembec shares to keep that ratio between ABWTQ and Tembec virtually the same as the past year.
Tembec says not to worry about the ST lumber market -- they sell forward, so to speak. Maybe ABWTQ does as well.
At the very least, whatever happens at tomorrow's auction will will be able to compare with what Tembec is doing (after it is announced, since they are doing it at the same time.
Also, other Forestry companies are buying back bonds -- so a lot of good comparisons will be out there to shoot down Management's request for 8.5% of the NewCo based on incentives.
As of right now - bonds at par
Have full printout from FINRA.
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View tutorial to learn more about the functionality and content of this site Last Updated: 6/23/2010
Corporate Bond Search Results Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Ratings Last Sale
Include in
Watchlist Bond Symbol Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Callable Moody's S&P Fitch Price Yield
BOW.GB BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.00 08/01/2009 No NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GB ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.88 08/01/2009 Yes NR NR C 99.882 -
BOW.GK BOWATER INCORPORATED 4.32 03/15/2010 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GH ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.55 08/01/2010 Yes NR NR C 99.781 -
ABY.GN ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 7.75 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GO ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 4.82 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GA BOWATER CANADA FINANCE CORPORATION 7.95 11/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GD BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.50 10/15/2012 No NR NR C 99.636 -
BOW.GJ BOWATER INCORPORATED 6.50 06/15/2013 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GK ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 6.00 06/20/2013 Yes NR NR C 99.259 -
ABY.GP ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 8.38 04/01/2015 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GD ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.40 04/01/2018 No NR NR C 99.287 -
BOW.GC BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.38 12/15/2021 No NR NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.50 04/01/2028 No NR NR C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.50 08/01/2029 Yes NR NR C 99.449 -
ABY.GI ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.85 08/01/2030 Yes NR NR C 99.983 -
Search Criteria
Bond Type: Corporate Symbol: abwtq
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Tropical Storm -- impact for all of us (revised)
-------------------------
I hope the moderators let this one stand (below link). Excerpt Only.
--------------------
Think BP, Think Asbestos
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
6/22/2010 11:35 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer Try Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
CLICK HERE NOW
Is it time to start thinking about BP's (BP - commentary - Trade Now) bankruptcy? There is an incredible belief that somehow the firm's cash flow of almost $7 billion a quarter is enough to get them through this.
The above excerpt from Jim Cramer deals mostly with BP. But given, that traders are now talking about naked shorting BP, because of the greater potential for BK, there are many similarities with Abitibi-Bowater.
------------------------
The Perfect Storm -- lower demand for Newsprint (recession), higher Canadian Dollar -- cross border financial issues from 2 separate accounting systems and lower Lumber Prices.
For BP -- what if crude suddenly falls to $40 -- good for Industries that rely on Fossil Fuels, but bad for Crude Producers.
ABWTQ - Link for poss. TropStorm
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark1latest.png
Lumber -- Absolutely Huge Contango now
I think we are going to run to $440 -- maybe not near month, but I think she's going to fly, soon.
Demand coming from floods all over the world -- someone has been doing their job in the Pits to push it down hard.
Every Lumber company in North America is BK at these low levels.
Timber in the Boreal Forest taken off the supply-chain. Forest Fires going strong.
Possible Tropical Storm in the GOM by the weekend, accroding to most forecasts.
I think that most people are aware of the W.S. Game. Gov't gave WS monies to buy-back Naked Shorts -- which they could not have done by themselves (ie they were BK -- too much in energy and gold etc.).
Watch Naked Shorts on BP -- some say there are no legitimates shares for shorting right now -- and the talk is the rage.
PS -- incredible volatility on Tembec shares -- generated through the computer program -- I see every move in milliseconds -- it is fun to watch this game being played.
Watch for trades on ABWTQ that go to 4 decimals -- it's just the mm's -- computer -- we see it all.
ABWTQ -- Sarbanes-Oxley Section 302
Being talked about with BP now -- both for Shareholders and for Bondholders.
imo, this too would apply for the Illegal Naked Shorting since 2004 on ABY, BOW, ABH (A), and ABWTQ.
imo, Since the executive was aware of this in 2007, as well as their respective accounting firms, as well as those involved in the Annexes on the Merger Deal -- well a lot can be said.
ABWTQ - Throwing Stockholders under the Bus
Just saw this comment on another board -- thought that I would put it out in the public forum. No doubt this is a clever tactic -- but if the whole world feels like this, then Judges can clearly make the Executive and the Boards of Directors (Past and Present) Accountable.
----------------
bond holder meeting for BK 17 minutes ago You can be sure that there is a bond holder think tank going on right now to see if BK can protect them while throwing the stock holders under the bus.. they will doing a Donald Trump on you longs..( Trump: " Art of the Steal" he broke three different sets of stock holders in Atlantic City casinos) There is so much money to be made/saved by throwing the stockholders under the bus at the first opportunity.
togederwezs...
ABWTQ - China Yuan Revaluation
I want to once again re-iterate the point that as the Canadian Dollar rises (relative to the USD) -- ABWTQ's operating earnings will fall (they say roughly 22 million for every 1 cent rise), but ABWTQ fails to disclose that they receive "foreign currency translation" gains on their U.S. Denominated Debt + Accrued Interest.
And, if properly managed (hedges -- caps -- whatever), they can "Capitalize" on the renewal of / payback of / exit financing etc. by converting their debt for Canadian Facilities back into Canadian Dollars.
In short, everything is "back-to-back" -- debt and higher labor costs or higher electricity costs or whatever are all in Canadian dollars. Profit by Facily comparisons are much easier.
If Canadian Facilities have a combined 3.8 billion dollar U.S. denominated debt -- would you rather try to re-finance at 1:1 or 1.25 : 1. What I want is to convert all to Canadian dollars, becuase as the Canadian falls back to $0.80 vs. 1 U.S. Dollar over the next five years, the Canadian plants would do better operationally and debtwise.
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Consider a short blurb from today's Newspaper Article on the Re-valuation of the Yuan higher.
"Because a large portion of Chinese airlines' debt is denominated in U.S. dollars, any dollar weakness would give them significant foreign-currency translation gains, said the Deutsche Bank strategists.
Though, I think the author really meant to say "dollar stength", but the article was promoting certain stocks -- and may have been bias in order to deplete broker inventory.
China Floods
Every little bit of demand for Lumber to re-build helps keep the sector going.
58,000 homes collapsed -- over 800,000 people evacuated. 1.4 million people in low lying areas affected in some way.
I have not watched my direct feed to China -- through CCTV - English Channel (The World Cup is a little more important right now), but I will catch-up soon enough.
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China floods death toll reaches 132
Buzz up!3 votes Send
AFP – Chinese residents help remove a car as flood waters rise in Guilin, southwest China's Guangxi province. …
by Allison Jackson Allison Jackson – Sun Jun 20, 6:55 am ET
BEIJING (AFP) – The death toll from torrential downpours battering China for the past week has reached 132, state media reported Sunday, as more heavy rain was forecast.
Floods and landslides triggered by the summer deluge have left a further 86 people missing while more than 800,000 have been evacuated, state-run television said.
Earlier media reports said more than 1.4 million people living on river banks and in low-lying areas had been forced to flee their homes.
More heavy rain was expected as the cost of the disaster, which has hit great swathes of China's south and affected more than 10 million people, reached 14.5 billion yuan (2.1 billion dollars), state television said.
A total of 68,000 houses have collapsed and more than 500,000 hectares (1.2 million acres) of crops have been affected, it said.
Authorities have raised the level of their emergency response as rescue and flood-prevention work continues, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said.
State television broadcast images of submerged crops in the eastern province of Jiangxi while other images showed soldiers leading clean-up efforts in parts of Fujian province.
Images showed overturned cars and people sweeping water and mud out of their shops in Fujian after floodwaters had receded.
Photos on China News Service showed people wading through waist-high water as they tried to cross a flooded bridge in the eastern province of Zhejiang.
Others showed people being rescued by helicopter from flood-ravaged Guangxi in the south while others and farmers in Fujian province trying to salvage crops damaged in the deluge.
The official Xinhua news agency also reported that in Fujian province alone, 12 people had died in a landslide while seven had been rescued.
The torrential and virtually unrelenting rain has also disrupted dozens of train services to the affected regions, with 18 services from Shanghai suspended Saturday, leaving 20,000 passengers stranded, state media said.
Eleven train services were suspended on Sunday.
Another service from Beijing to Fuzhou in Fujian province was stopped from leaving the capital on Saturday because of the floods.
The National Meteorological Centre warned on Sunday of more rainstorms to come, two days after it issued an orange storm alert -- just one level lower than the nation's most serious red alert.
"The scope and intensity of the rain have increased," it said in a statement on its website.
"In parts of Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi and other areas of the south, the rainfall will be 100-180 millimetres. In other parts, the rainfall will be more than 200 millimetres."
The weather bureau said previously that some of the rainfall in the south was up to three times greater than normal years.
ABWTQ - Ergodoc and others
Attached is an excerpt from today's Meet The Press Show (basically, the final seven minutes).
You should review, and then send to our lawyer for his information -- if you deem it appropriate.
The excerpt covers:
1. Credit Default Swaps -- short blurb, but now formally addressed, on one of the most respected Sunday News Shows out there.
2. Climate Change - Full on Process, Cap & Trade blurb, Electricity discussion on how rates would likely rise -- this creates a benefit in terms of asset valuation for all Generation Assets (Hydro-ABWTQ, biomass-mentioned, geo-thermal, wind, solar, natural gas).
3. Regulatory Issues -- through an EC we can certainly raise all of these issues, and imo, hold up the entire exit of BK for years, until we get what we want (injunction, if necessary -- Nfld Assets -- what incremental value is there under a Cap & Trade System).
I am sure this is what The Executive and Prem Watsa are afraid of. And that's one reason why they want it completed by the end of September.
If Lumber (as a commodity -- is rebounding), I do not think that ABWTQ will have any trouble finding Financing -- in fact it might be too good.
Please also review the Tembec Re-Financing Press Release from Friday -- I will not post -- as it does not relate specifically to ABWTQ, but it is interesting that they talk about discussions with "Certain Parties" -- maybe one of them will be PremWatsa and Fairfax.
During their 2nd quater Conference Call -- they mentioned that their REFINANCING Issue was complicated -- so who knows what will happen there, but their results (in this area) could be beneficial to ABWTQ in terms of their exit from BK Financing.
-----------------
Meet The Press Link -- below
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/ns/meet_the_press_online_at_msnbc#37809414
ABWTQ - $Lumber Daily Continuous Chart
Not sure if this means we are getting ready to rock (potential for a long Wave III). I think we just finished day 38 of the algorithim trading pattern. Thought this would be a full 39 day.
Market is talking about other things rolling over -- so we will just have to watch. Floods (even with another couple hundred homes damaged) are creating some demand for lumber products.
Just wait for that first hurricane -- especially if it hits the GOM. Though, I think more damage if it goes up the East Coast.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$lumber&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
ABWTQ - New Investigations into CDS
This investigation by the SEC may lay further groundwork for us into the ABH, ABY, BOW CDS schemes as of the 2007 Merger Date with Bowater.
Article - below
SEC Steps Up Probe of Crisis Deals By Fund
By: KARA SCANNELL
The Securities and Exchange Commission is stepping up its investigation into the complicated mortgage securities at the heart of the financial crisis, focusing on deals by an Illinois-based hedge fund that made big profits as these securities went sour.
Investigators carrying out the SEC's broad examination into these securities, known as collateralized-debt obligations, are holding face-to-face meetings with Wall Street executives about deals involving hedge fund Magnetar Capital, according to people familiar with the matter.
The focus of the interviews is how these particular securities were put together, people familiar with the matter said.
The highest-profile case to come out of the SEC's wide-ranging investigation is the civil fraud suit the SEC has brought against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. But in that case, the focus was on how the securities were sold to clients and whether all of the important information about them was properly disclosed to clients.
Magnetar, which is named after a type of neutron star, a remnant of a collapsed sun, played a key role in the market for complicated mortgage securities. It helped keep sales growing even as the housing market started to stumble. It did that by stepping in to buy the riskiest portions of the CDOs, which are packages of mortgage securities that are sliced up by risk and return. Without a buyer for the riskiest slice, the supposedly least risky, generally triple-A rated portions of the CDO could not be sold.
Critics have said that the actions of players such as Magnetar helped fuel the boom in mortgage-linked securities after cracks had begun to show in the subprime housing market. That subsequently worsened the financial crisis when Wall Street banks incurred heavy losses from CDOs they bought or were unable to sell.
Magnetar offset its risk by betting against the default of these securities using instruments called credit default swaps. Magnetar ended up making big profits when these CDOs collapsed, while the investors in the supposedly safer parts of the security suffered big losses.
Among other things, investigators want to know how the assets that were put into the CDOs were valued at the time, what the terms of the deal were, what triggers were put in place to determine whether investors would incur losses and at what point did firms involved in the deal bet against the assets in the CDO, people familiar with the matter say.
A spokesman for Magnetar said, "As we understand it, the entire CDO market has for some time been under review by various regulators. From time to time, Magnetar has received related inquiries and we have responded to the best of our ability to these requests." Magnetar said it "was transparent in its dealings with market participants."
The fund was started by Alec Litowitz, a former Citadel Investment Group trader.
An SEC spokesman declined to comment.
Normally, an independent manager would work with a bank to put together the CDOs and investors would decide whether or not to buy them.
People familiar with Magnetar's deals say the firm actually played a role in how the securities were put together, encouraging these independent managers to pick mortgage assets with certain characteristics to put in them.
Magnetar told its investors in April that it "did not control asset selection in CDOs in which it participated" but said it "often communicated" with the bank and asset managers when the deals were being put together.
Magnetar rejected the characterization of its deals as bets on a collapse of the mortgage market. "It was not a 'bet' that any CDO, any group of CDOs, or the housing or mortgage markets as a whole would fail either in the short term or long term," the firm said in its letter.
The SEC has several open investigations in the area of mortgage CDOs. Investigators have sought documents and information from nearly every major Wall Street firm and are seeking information from Goldman Sachs about several deals it constructed.
In April, the SEC sued Goldman and one of its traders for allegedly misleading investors in a CDO it sold named Abacus. Goldman denies the charges and says disclosure was sufficient.
Both sides have held discussions to try to reach a settlement, people familiar with the matter have said, but no deal is close. Goldman has been given extra time to file its response to the SEC's suit, people familiar with the matter said. The response to the suit was originally due Monday.
—Serena Ng
contributed to this article.
Write to Kara Scannell at kara.scannell@wsj.com
Thank you. Possible CDS Changes - Congress Bill
Deal seen to keep Lincoln swaps plan in bank bill
2:39pm EDT
* "Clarified" Lincoln plan will be in final bill-aides
* Changes to plan seen on Fed rules, possibly capital
* Business-friendly Dem lawmakers group wants plan dropped
* Pro-reform group says plan is a "critical" change
By Kevin Drawbaugh and Charles Abbott
WASHINGTON, June 17 (Reuters) - Final Wall Street reform legislation will include a controversial plan from Senator Blanche Lincoln to insulate banks from risky swap dealing, but only after it is further "clarified," aides said on Thursday.
A deal is being worked out, with terms still under negotiation by lawmakers and the Obama administration, said congressional aides and someone close to the talks.
A key element of the agreement is bolstering related Federal Reserve regulations that would isolate banks from new swap dealing affiliates called for by the plan, aides said.
Other factors involve government protections for banks whose swaps businesses get into trouble; finding ways for banks to capitalize the new affiliates; and Lincoln's bid to win reelection in November in Arkansas, senior aides said.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and other commercial banks could be hardest hit if the Lincoln plan is approved, Citigroup analysts said in a report this week.
Major investment banks such as Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) could be better positioned to adjust to structural changes that would ensue, the report said.
The Lincoln plan "remains one of the most critical, structural reforms left standing in the Wall Street reform bill," said Heather Booth, director of Americans for Financial Reform, a group that advocates tougher financial regulation.
"Wall Street lobbyists have thrown everything they have at it because they want to keep using Americans' deposits and federal dollars to fund their reckless gambling," she said.
Some progressive Democrats in the Senate and the House support Lincoln's plan, but a long list of business-friendly Democrats registered opposition to it on Wednesday.
In a letter to leaders of a Senate-House conference committee drafting the Wall Street reform bill, 43 members of the New Democrat Coalition called for killing the plan, saying it would "increase systemic risk by forcing derivatives transactions into less regulated and less capitalized institutions and impede effective regulatory oversight."
Republicans, who have little to say about the reform bill at this stage, probably would not support the Lincoln plan no matter how it is modified, said a senior Republican aide.
PLAN TARGETS SWAPS
Swaps are derivative financial contracts that let their users hedge against risks of changing interest rates, exchange rates or, in the case of credit default swaps, the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on its debts.
The unregulated $615-trillion market for over-the-counter derivatives, which are not traded on exchanges and include off-exchange swaps, is dominated by Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).
OTC derivatives, particularly CDS, were widely blamed for aggravating the 2007-2009 credit crisis by rapidly spreading it across the financial system via the vast web of global connections the market has fostered among financial firms.
Lincoln proposed that banks benefiting from government protections be made to choose between banking and swap dealing. Her plan would effectively force banks to spin off their swap dealing desks into affiliates with separate balance sheets.
That would be costly to the banks. They would have to give up the lucrative profits they get from dealing, raise new capital for the affiliates and deal with the complex logistics of moving dealing operations from one unit to another.
Separating their dealing desks would also raise banks' cost of capital, possibly putting U.S. banks at a disadvantage versus European competitors, said the Citigroup analysts.
Still, an aide close to the discussions on the plan said it would let banks hold onto the value of their swap dealing desks by keeping them inside the bank holding company.
In addition, aides said, raising more capital for the new affiliates would add to a holding company's overall capital cushion -- a goal shared by all involved in the reform debate.
When Lincoln first unveiled her proposal earlier this year, it was widely interpreted as calling for banks to completely separate themselves from their swap trading desks.
On Monday, she issued a "clarification" that said banks could spin off their swap dealing operations into separately capitalized subsidiaries still within their holding companies.
She also said banks could continue to be swap market participants, using off-exchange derivatives to hedge their own risks and offering the same services to customers.
(For a Factbox on new tweaks to Lincoln's plan, double-click on [ID:nN14223826]) (Additional reporting by Caren Bohan; Editing by Dan Grebler)
© Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved.
Another link for Tropical Storms (real time)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html
I think the warning out tonight -- is just a re-birth of the storm that we saw earlier in the week (that faced too much shear to stay together).
We will see tomorrow -- but I think this one does have a chance to form a storm that moves up the Atlantic (east of Florida).
--------------------
Also, I just received a notation that followers are spotting a disturbance in the SW part of the GOM that could spin-up.
GLTA -- and have a good weekend.
ABWTQ -- Just a short post based on today's news
NB: On holidays until next week
In light of the posts today and some of the objections raised, I got to thinking a little bit more on why Aurelius is taking the tact that they are.
I am just thinking aloud, though -- using some of the information gathered from the SSCCQ.pk case.
I wonder if Aurelius is actually that party in this that is "short" (legitimately) shares. We have have seen a dramatic decrease in the short position of late -- though naked shorting during the last run-up / run down (to may 15th -- I see) was a problem.
Attached is a general link to information on Aurelius (an Austrian Firm).
http://ca.search.yahoo.com/search?p=Aurelius+Capital+Management&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8&fr=yfp-t-715
The link below -- does not really add anything -- but is a general search for 13d filings.
http://whalewisdom.com/schedule13d/index/2010/6/15
8:24 am - FINRA Bonds still at par
Day of hearing -- have hard copy for EC request
Last Updated: 6/17/2010
Corporate Bond Search Results Thursday, June 17, 2010
Ratings Last Sale
Include in
Watchlist Bond Symbol Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Callable Moody's S&P Fitch Price Yield
BOW.GB BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.00 08/01/2009 No NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GB ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.88 08/01/2009 Yes NR NR C 99.882 -
BOW.GK BOWATER INCORPORATED 4.32 03/15/2010 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GH ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.55 08/01/2010 Yes NR NR C 99.781 -
ABY.GN ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 7.75 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GO ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 4.82 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GA BOWATER CANADA FINANCE CORPORATION 7.95 11/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GD BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.50 10/15/2012 No NR NR C 99.636 -
BOW.GJ BOWATER INCORPORATED 6.50 06/15/2013 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GK ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 6.00 06/20/2013 Yes NR NR C 99.259 -
ABY.GP ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 8.38 04/01/2015 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GD ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.40 04/01/2018 No NR NR C 99.287 -
BOW.GC BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.38 12/15/2021 No NR NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.50 04/01/2028 No NR NR C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.50 08/01/2029 Yes NR NR C 99.449 -
ABY.GI ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.85 08/01/2030 Yes NR NR C 99.983 -
Search Criteria
Bond Type: Corporate Symbol: abwtq
Lumber (Cont) - now in Perfect Contango
Which means "inflation". No storage / inventories.
I think the next few trading days will finish up the current algorithim trading cycle.
Though, I may be wrong on the 39-day chart pattern.
We just finished day 36. Tembec's chart looks like it has turned, though with gaps -- so maybe the run starts Friday.
ABWTQ -- looks like a beautiful chart, if things go our way with Wilmington. I also too question the lack of mention about CDS.
Then Wilmington caused problems in the Calpine Case too (I think), so we just have to be patient (over the weekend, while we wait).
GLTA -- out now for a long weekend.
O.Speech -- Cap&Trade/CarbonTax/Climate Change
It would appear that President Obama's speech will at least address all of the above tonight.
Attached WSJ Article -- Outlines some of the topics.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704009804575308782107364538.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
Link to the Gartman- FM (Soft Commodity Issue)
About 6.5 minutes into the show.
Think about the Soft Commodities vs. Hard (5 Fold increases over the past 6 years).
Many industries affected. Only through computer algorithims and illegal naked shorting / CDS could Wall Street have done what they did. My hedge fund buds always give out some good info from time to time.
I learned a lot from the ENRON days.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1522228839&play=1
Thanks for your question.
It really doesn't matter at this point if the EC is denied.
My guess is full on injunctions delaying the exit from BK until 2011 or until 2012. It can be done. Stay tuned.
And there is no way we are going to take Warrants that have an expiry date like Calpine. To much has been learned about the value of the assets, here.
I will subpeona every inside document between Paterson / Harvey and Fairfax if I have to. imo, most of the executive and the Board belong in jail for not coming out and saying that the assets have value. Maybe one of the reasons that Fairfax had one of their members resign from the Board (conflict of interest).
It should be clear that it's all about Emission Credits and Cap & Trade. That's why we own it. And when Danny Williams finds out how much the Nfld assets are really worth -- well it could lead to an entire Nationalization of the Canadian Forestry Industry.
GLTA
Early Jan 2010 Gap closed on Lumber
On the continuous $Lumber chart.
----------------
Dennis Gartman on Fast Money - last night
Talked about SOFT COMMODITIES. No link -- but I will post later. Certainly gives credence to my theory that the market was rigged (hard commodities vs. soft commodities).
Note also Tembec's comments about the rigging of the market. imo, algorithim programs = relationship. Too perfect trading patterns that repeat across various industries (etc.)
It is very easy to prove -- especially when a trade happens at 3:59:59 pm.
OR at 2:50 pm exactly certain things happen (identically). Look at the MFFAIS data -- they now refer to hedge funds as "Model" (Fairfax, Steelhead Model). What's this about?
OR Naked Short Selling OR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS. Apparently a Newsweek Article from June 7th on Naked Shorting (page 42) -- I do not subscribe.
Cap & Trade - Obama's Speech on BP
Some people believe that President Obama may use tonight's speech on BP to bridge discussions on why a formal Cap & Trade system is necessary.
Here are two recent comments from another board.
I love the comment about buying credits from FORESTRY OWNERS (certainly proof - now about The Executive's motives)
BP disaster will lead to Cap & Trade 14-Jun-10 09:43 pm
That's why Obama is strangely aloof. This plays right into his hands. He is going to make a big speech on tv and declare this disaster as the final justification for Cap & Trade. It's a done deal. Watch.
boobajeen
---------------------
Obama will now use the BP disaster to pass CAP AND CARBON TRADE BILL 15-Jun-10
furthering the agenda for the BOYS--as in the AL GORES and Banks that are in on the deal--THE CBOT already has the deal set up---Insiders have been buying Carbon Credits from Farmers-Forest owners--entire Counrtries--PREPARE FOR ROUND 2 of the BIGGEST SCAM on the American TAXPAYER IN HISTORY---as large CARBON CREATING COMPANIES will pass the costs on to you and me...Now it makes sense--except the "accident" was not suppposed to get this bad...
shortburner...
Can anyone confirm that BP has hired
The Blackstone Group?
Along with Goldman and Credit S. It will be interesting to see their advice.
Bankruptcy discussions would be of interest to us -- since a lot has been said about CDS and illegal naked shorting of BP stock over the past several days.
Once we see a trend -- we start posting everything we can to BP shareholders -- I think that there are going to be a lot of angy retirees if the dividend is cut.
ABWTQ (Naked Short Selling - From another Board)
Germany banned Naked Short Selling upon finding GS secret files /codes 13-Jun-10 11:02 am
very interesting -- put the story together that the TV news media is not reporting
Goldman Sachs Computer programmer arrested. Before arrestred he sent over 1000 secret codes and files to a Web site in Germany.
now Germany bans naked short selling on May 18th, 2010
now European Union getting involved to ban naked short selling.
Goldman Sachs charges brought on April 16th, 2010
Goldman Sachs fined for Naked Short Selling May 4th, 2010
put the story together folks
The Goldman Sachs secret codes and files about to be revealed to the world thanks to Germany and other counbtries as US media covering up these 1000 secrets of Goldman Sachs
all heck about to break out in regards to Goldman Sachs. stay tuned as the truth finally comes out.
the REFEREE
Housing Industry -- New Synthetic CDO Cases
I especially love the title of this one (Timberwolf).
NB: I am not sure, but Naked Shorts and Credit Default Deals -- taken together may have also been included somehow in Synthetic CDO's (mortage-backed securities), just in reverse (ie on the other side of the trade).
-------------------------
lawsuit from Australian Hedge fund...
The Australian June 14, 2010 12:00AM
US Securities and Exchange Commission investigators are focusing on another mortgage-backed asset created by Goldman Sachs as they attempt to bolster their $US1 billion ($1.1bn) fraud case against the embattled bank.
Hudson Mezzanine, a synthetic collateralised debt obligation (CDO), was structured by Goldman in late 2006, shortly before the bank made and sold Abacus, the now-notorious CDO at the centre of a high-profile securities case against the bank.
In April, the SEC charged Goldman and one of its traders with fraud, accusing them of failing to tell investors that Abacus was created so that one of Goldman's hedge fund clients could bet that it would go bust. The collapse cost investors $US1bn. Last week, Australian hedge fund Basis Capital also sued the investment bank for $US1bn, accusing it of fraudulently selling it a now notorious CDO called Timberwolf that let to the hedge fund's collapse.
ABWTQ - Hurricane Center Link (again)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Not sure if this one will materialize -- currents have a lot of shear right now -- but at least its a start to the hurricane season.
Why is this important -- because specs will either have to buy-back lumber positions on expectations of damage (and low seasonal inventories) or on actual damage.
I am sure that for those trying to steal the company away, they do not want to see higher lumber prices.
So we just hope for more and more "bowling balls" as the season progresses.
With respect to other commodities / BP -- I am not sure what will happen to electricity, natural gas and crude if there is another Cat 5 that goes into La / Texas -- a lot of oil into / onto shore will likely damage much infrastructure for years to come.
It's one thing to remove oil from sand by shipping to Canadain oil sands refiners, its another to remove it off of damaged homes along shore (creating big demand for rebuilding).
PS -- I will not post every time there is a storm or a potential for a storm -- just know that might be one reason that lumber / timber is trading the way that it is, as we move through the summer months.
Thanks Pitt77 -- see below for add'l comment
From a psychological point of view -- I caution, earnings estimates tend to be incorrect either more or less. I have put a lot of things on this board about "hedging" and "risk management" strategies just to prove that our existing Management Team has no clue about how to run a business. imo, a monkey can do a better job.
Or, better still, if you train someone like a monkey, they will act like a monkey. All of us can do a better job. And, if they now project that they will earn money in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 -- then why do you think tat they (Management) is trying to reward themselves with 8.5% of the NEW COMPANY (without existing shareholders).
Think about it -- logically -- I am going to reward myself with 8.5% (incentives), if the company makes money -- well of course I am going to do that -- why -- because I know that I can make more money by screwing the shareholders. Think injuntion, in the end. This company will not win a PRESS BATTLE -- over one billion stolen from shareholders on illegal naked shorting and over 1 billion stolen through insurance fraud (credit default swaps). That is 2 billion in equity stolen. Plus King Danny Willaims has assets that are worth over 1.5 billion dollars (less clean-up and severance costs), upon issuance of CAP & TRADE).
Two main issues for shareholders -- now
1. NET OPERATING LOSSES (and carry to the new company (NOL's).
2. The attached press release from 2007 dealing with SYNERGIES of the AQbi-Bow MERGER. If removing 1 million tons of capacity generates 375 Million in Cost Savings, then what does removing over 3 million tons generate (less about 1.5 million tons of "declinging industry production that will never again be needed".
If their reliance on export markets becomes more significant, once the Canadian Dollar falls back to $0.80 relative to the U.S. Market for China and India and Brazil -- population growth, then their Assets will not only generate more revenues, but more also earnings.
With Shareholders -- Abitibi-Bowater was planning to do all this anyway -- before Bankruptcy. So, you cannot just say screw shareholders -- again -- read the Press Release -- it comes down to INTENT. If you are a legal person -- you know what this means and how LAW really works.
Press Release below:
AbitibiBowater Announces Phase 1 of Action Plan to Address Company Challenges
ABH (TSX, NYSE)
US$
•Reduces Paper Production Capacity by Approximately 1 Million Metric Tons
•Increases Synergy Target to $375 Million
•Targets $500 Million from Asset Sales
•Suspends Dividend
•Requests Reopening of Canadian Union Contracts
•Initiates Phase 2 Comprehensive Review
MONTREAL, Nov. 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Following the initial phase of a comprehensive strategic review, the Board of Directors of AbitibiBowater Inc. has reviewed Management's recommendations and approved the following actions.
Phase 1
The Company will reduce its newsprint and commercial printing papers production capacity by approximately 1 million metric tons per year during the first quarter of 2008. The reductions include the permanent closure of the Belgo (Shawinigan, Quebec) and Dalhousie (New Brunswick) mills, as well as the indefinite idling of the Donnacona (Quebec) and Mackenzie (British Columbia) paper mills. The Company will also indefinitely idle two Mackenzie sawmills directly supporting the Mackenzie paper operation. These facilities are not generating positive cash flows and are not expected to do so in the foreseeable future. They represent approximately 600,000 metric tons of newsprint, 400,000 metric tons of commercial printing papers, and 500 million board feet of lumber capacities. In spite of these capacity reductions, AbitibiBowater expects to continue growing its international newsprint sales in line with offshore market expansions.
Additionally, the Company will permanently close the previously idled Fort William (Thunder Bay, Ontario) and Lufkin (Texas) paper mills, as well as the #3 Paper Machine at the Gatineau (Quebec) facility. The previously idled operations had a total capacity of approximately 650,000 metric tons.
The Company also announced that it has raised its targeted synergies stemming from the merger to $375 million. "We are confident that we can achieve the original $250-million run rate by the end of the first quarter of 2009, and realize an additional $125 million within our originally announced two-year time frame, which extends through the end of 2009," said Executive Chairman John W. Weaver.
As part of the action plan unveiled today, AbitibiBowater is reaching out to both unionized and salaried employees to contribute to cost-reduction initiatives. The Company is asking its Canadian union partners to reopen current labor agreements and explore ways to reduce overall labor costs and provide enhanced flexibility in the workplace. The salaried workforce will be impacted by on-going benefits harmonization.
With regard to the capacity reductions, the Company evaluated a range of options. "These were difficult decisions that were made after careful deliberation and represent the best course of action given the current economic conditions and significant challenge that lies before us. We are mindful of the impact these decisions will have on the employees and communities affected, and will be working with them to help mitigate the effects," said President and Chief Executive Officer David J. Paterson. "We are confident, however, that, as a result of the actions, AbitibiBowater will become a stronger, more globally competitive organization. I believe the initiatives unveiled today underscore our determination to adapt to today's rapidly changing market realities."
Overall, the Company is targeting $500 million from asset sales, including non-core facilities, U.S. timberlands and the newsprint mill at Snowflake (Arizona), which must be divested under the terms of the agreement reached with the United States Department of Justice for approval of the Abitibi-Consolidated/Bowater combination. Proceeds will be used to support the three-year, $1-billion debt-reduction target.
Given the Company's focus on debt reduction, after careful deliberation, the Board of Directors has decided to suspend the dividend to shareholders. The Company will revisit this decision once clear progress has been made to achieve its financial targets.
The Company estimates it will incur cash closure costs of approximately $100 million related to severance and other closure charges as a result of these actions. Approximately $30 million of these closure costs will not impact AbitibiBowater earnings and will be recorded as liabilities in the purchase price allocation of its subsidiary, Abitibi-Consolidated Inc., as they relate to facilities owned by Abitibi-Consolidated. In addition, the Company estimates it will incur an after-tax asset impairment charge of approximately $110-$130 million in the fourth quarter related to Bowater Incorporated assets. An additional estimated $230-$270 million after-tax impairment charge related to assets owned by Abitibi-Consolidated is not expected to impact consolidated fourth quarter AbitibiBowater earnings as it will be eliminated by the fair value adjustments recorded in the purchase price allocation.
Phase 2
Over the next four months, the Company will undertake a comprehensive review of all aspects of the business in an effort to further reduce costs, improve its manufacturing platform and better position the Company in the global marketplace. The Company will be reaching out to various stakeholders in an effort to address challenges, which are exacerbated by the rapid rise of the Canadian dollar.
Given the specific pressures in Eastern Canada relative to wood availability, energy and labor, a second phase of closures could take place by mid-2008. Final decisions regarding the actions to be taken and the locations impacted will be confirmed in the second quarter of 2008.
Furthermore, over the next four months, AbitibiBowater will also be conducting an in-depth review of its wood products business with the objective of selling non-core assets, consolidating facilities where appropriate and curtailing or closing non-contributing operations.
Immediate challenges notwithstanding, AbitibiBowater remains intent on conducting its business with an unsurpassed commitment to sustainability, reflecting its ongoing commitment to environmental responsibility, social desirability and economic viability.
The difficult steps announced today are part of a comprehensive road map designed to better position the Company for the future, an objective that is clearly in the long-term best interests of all AbitibiBowater stakeholders - employees, shareholders, suppliers, customers and communities alike.
ABWTQ --- Credit Default Swaps
Word is getting out about its Toxic ability
In connection with BP, most on Wall Street are now firmly betting against BP in one way or another. Some sources say that BP is trying to protect itself legally against one of the largest environmental settlements ever.
Whether they go BK is really anyone's guess -- but again why is everyone so concerned.
In one shot -- it's the CDS (insurance fraud Casino). The US Gov't and The American Oil Companies want their rightful assets (GOM drilling reserves) in their own hands. And screw the 40% of Americanpeople that have invested in BP for its dividend through their 401 K's.
-----------------------
As an aside -- all this on a day when the experts now say that demand for crude and crude products has fallen by roughly 25% relative to 2007 levels (in the US). And "worldwide", that kind of demand will not sook up the excess supply.
So why are we at $70. Some say we should be below $30 per barrel. ($26.50 and $39.99).
So when will we see the hedge unwind with crude and lumber -- we know it exists.
I think very soon -- if the hedge funds want to take BP down within the year.
ABWTQ - BP (Similarities with CDS)
In a post last week, I talked about the CDS were increasing on BP.
This morning, CNBC Reporter Trish Regan did a good job on the Today show of slamming BP and talking BK -- likely what Wall Street wants. Or for that matter U.S. Oil Companies that want the Horizon Oil Find for themselves. What a major discovery.
Now the UK Gov't appears to be fighting back -- talking about Nationalization -- so as to stop the US Banks from playing the CDS Casino Game.
I have yet to see the Naked Short Data for BP -- since Horizon went down -- but if there is a direct correlation, our lawyers should be able to show a lot for shareholders.
----------------------------
BP credit-default swaps widen to junk territory 22 minutes ago It will get progressively worse over the next few weeks.
BP credit-default swaps widen to junk territory
By Steve Goldstein MarketWatch
6/10/2010 04:55:02 AM
Advertisement
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- BP's credit-default swaps ballooned on Thursday to junk level status, despite the oil giant being rated AA by rating agencies. According to data from Markit, BP swaps widened to 570 basis points, up 195 points from Wednesday. That means it costs $570,000 per year to insure $10 million of BP debt for 5 years.
quicadeptxp...
ABWTQ - Finra Bonds - still at Par this morning
Last Updated: 6/10/2010
Corporate Bond Search Results Thursday, June 10, 2010
Ratings Last Sale
Include in
Watchlist Bond Symbol Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Callable Moody's S&P Fitch Price Yield
BOW.GB BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.00 08/01/2009 No NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GB ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.88 08/01/2009 Yes NR NR C 99.882 -
BOW.GK BOWATER INCORPORATED 4.32 03/15/2010 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GH ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.55 08/01/2010 Yes NR NR C 99.781 -
ABY.GN ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 7.75 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GO ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 4.82 06/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GA BOWATER CANADA FINANCE CORPORATION 7.95 11/15/2011 Yes NR NR C - -
BOW.GD BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.50 10/15/2012 No NR NR C 99.636 -
BOW.GJ BOWATER INCORPORATED 6.50 06/15/2013 Yes NR NR C - -
ABY.GK ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 6.00 06/20/2013 Yes NR NR C 99.259 -
ABY.GP ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED COMPANY OF CANADA 8.38 04/01/2015 Yes NR NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GD ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.40 04/01/2018 No NR NR C 99.287 -
BOW.GC BOWATER INCORPORATED 9.38 12/15/2021 No NR NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 7.50 04/01/2028 No NR NR C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.50 08/01/2029 Yes NR NR C 99.449 -
ABY.GI ABITIBI CONSOLIDATED INCORPORATED 8.85 08/01/2030 Yes NR NR C 99.983 -
Search Criteria
Bond Type: Corporate Symbol: abwtq