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Natcore sent this email to shareholders on 9/9/11
Extolling The Attributes Of Natcore Technology
Dear Jim,
As I’m sure you are aware, Natcore has made significant progress over the past several months. Along the way we have developed a following of individuals interested in our technology and our goal to make solar energy competitive with traditional sources of energy.
We came across an update and summary written and posted by one of these individuals. He obviously put a lot of thought and effort into this. It’s a good summary and I thought it would be of interest to everyone.
If you have any questions or comments, don’t hesitate to contact either Chuck or myself. Thanks for your continued interest in Natcore.
Best,
Tom Scarpa
Extolling The Attributes Of Natcore Technology
While viewing your website, I noticed that you are focused on identifying disruptive ideas and new chemistries for renewable energy generation. I think that you will find this information to be very interesting. (See below for breaking news regarding ultra-low cost flexible photovoltaic cells)
I am an individual investor that focuses on solar pv. I strongly believe that I have uncovered a small, relatively unknown technology company that will have a game changing impact in the solar pv space due to their disruptive technology. This little gem also has tremendous upside potential from many applications outside of the solar arena.
The Company I'm referring to is Natcore Technology. The following introduction is from Natcore's website - http://www.natcoresolar.com
WE HAVE TECHNOLOGY THAT WILL CHANGE THE WORLD
That's a bold claim. But consider this: Natcore Technology controls a new thin-film growth process that promises to allow mass manufacturing of tandem solar cells with twice the efficiency of the best solar cells available today.
This would mean that solar energy would finally be cost-competitive with conventional power. And that we can significantly diminish our dependence on fossil fuels.
Moreover, our technology allows for solar cell production that eradicates the need for toxic silane; eliminates the need for intensive energy used to apply the antireflective coating; and significantly lowers silicon usage. But our world-changing technology also promises to have a dramatic impact on semiconductor devices; optical components; eyewear; aerospace exploration; and architectural coatings, among other uses.
I have conversed with the combination of Chuck Provini (CEO), Brien Lundin (Chairman), Dr. Dennis Flood (CTO), and Tom Scarpa (IR) many times. They are very accessible and I have found their passion to be contagious, and their integrity to be at the highest level. The following is a brief description taken from Natcore's website.
Chuck Provini (CEO) graduated from, and has been a leadership instructor at the U.S. Naval Academy and Chairman of the U.S. Naval Academy's Honor Board.
Brien Lundin (Chairman) is a co-founder of Natcore. He is an executive, marketer and investor with experience in financing and advising early-stage technology and natural resource enterprises.
Dennis Flood, PhD, (CTO) is a Natcore founder. He has more than 30 years of experience in developing solar cell and array technology for both space and terrestrial applications. At the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, he served for 15 years as Chief of the Photovoltaic and Space Environments Branch and led programs in advanced photovoltaic systems development.
Professor Andrew Barron is a co-founder of, and technical consultant to Natcore. Currently, the Charles W. Duncan Jr. - Welch Chair of Chemistry and Professor of Materials Science at Rice University.
Natcore does not plan to manufacture solar cells. Instead, they plan to sell materials, deposition systems and licenses, based on their technology, to companies that do so. In my opinion, this business model has very low capital expenditures built in. It should also result in a very high net income percentage.
PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE dated 7/11/11
Now there is one. There could soon be five.
I'm talking about AR-Box™. That's Natcore's intelligent processing system, our new machine that will allow us to refine and deliver a self-contained, cost-effective, anti-reflective (AR) coating process to solar fabrication facilities.
We first told you about AR-Box just four months ago, when we began producing it at MicroTech Systems in Fremont, CA. Now we are in the machine's final testing phase. We are also working on integrating our black silicon application to this tool, which will make AR-Box the only machine able to grow an AR coating on black silicon.
AR-Box will allow us to refine and deliver a cost-effective AR coating process to solar fabrication facilities. Moreover, our black silicon application could increase efficiency of solar cells by two to three percent, and could increase total daily power output by a much greater degree. (We're breaking entirely new ground here, and there's no way to accurately determine the power advantages of a black silicon solar cell until we actually create one and test it.)
We are having AR-Box #1 installed in our new laboratory facility at the Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY, where we plan to consolidate our R&D efforts. This facility exceeds our advanced equipment, clean room and testing requirements and, along with a joint development agreement that we have signed with Kodak, will enable us to tap into the rich talent pool in Rochester - including many highly credentialed casualties of their downsizing. This will greatly increase our scientific and intellectual depth, and allow us to proceed at a much faster rate on our other technologies and applications.
The thrust of our efforts with Kodak will be to utilize their equipment and experience in high-speed, roll-to-roll manufacturing of thin films as we develop a flexible solar cell. Kodak's cutting-edge facilities, as well as their leading expertise, are at our disposal for relatively small cash outflows. This roll-to-roll technology could reduce the cost to manufacture solar cells by as much as 60 percent.
(Please note that we will continue to utilize Professor Andrew Barron's group at Rice University, through joint research agreements, to develop our tandem solar cell and to explore additional applications for our technology.)
AR-Box #2 will go to Hunan TLNZ Solar Technology Co. Ltd. of Xiangtan, China, with whom we have signed a letter of understanding. After extensive testing and adjustments in Fremont, if necessary, the device will be shipped to TLNZ. The sale closing is contingent upon a successful test by TLNZ.
AR-Box #3 will be sent to Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) Ltd., our joint venture formed with the Zhuzhou Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone. (I've been asked why we didn't build AR-Box 1 at our joint venture. The answer is simple: We wanted our first machine to be perfect. Our strategy has paid off: We have two very important, patented improvements that were conceived and implemented after construction began. Simply put, these options had not been thought of before and do not exist currently in China or anywhere else. American technology is still the best in the world.)
We have confidence that AR-Box #4 will be sold to another large Chinese solar company. This company, with a 500-megawatt production facility (this is equal to the entire U.S. solar cell production capacity), will be sending a delegation including their CEO and CTO to visit our Rice and Rochester labs in mid-August. They want to discuss how our process can be integrated into their fabrication lines. We also plan to discuss potential joint venture opportunities with them.
We hope to build AR-Box #5 for an Italian solar company that will be visiting us early in August to evaluate our equipment and investigate joint venture opportunities here in the United States. This company, too, will send their CEO and CTO to meet with us. We have already met with them in Red Bank, at their New Jersey facility, and in Milan.
As you can see, we are focused on identifying and partnering with world-class companies with extensive manufacturing experience. By partnering with the very best manufacturers to integrate our equipment and technology seamlessly into fabrication lines, we know we will be able to meet any company's needs in the future.
We could have built AR-Box 1 more quickly, and perhaps sold one sooner into a Chinese production line. We chose not to go this route, however, because our goal is to make Natcore's products the gold standard in the industry.
We are not trying to make a quick trade; we are trying to build a business. We are not in this for an exit strategy - we want to deliver revolutionary products that transform entire industries and richly reward our shareholders.
And, along the way, we plan to change the world for the better.
Charles Provini, President, CEO, & Director
The large Chinese solar company is Phono Solar. They plan to double their 500-megawatt production capacity to 1-gigawatt. Their parent company is a conglomerate with $15 billion in sales. They will arrive in the U.S. on 9/25. Natcore is confident of an AR-Box sale to them.
The Italian solar company is MX Solar. They were in the U.S. in early August. Natcore is traveling to Italy to meet with them in early September. Natcore is confident of an AR-Box sale to them.
Natcore plans to ship thousands of the LPD process AR-coated, passivated black silicon wafer samples to silicon pv solar manufacturers real soon. They also expect that an AR-Box will be part of a pv panel manufacturer's wafer processing line by the end of the year.
LIQUID PHASE DEPOSITION: This is what Natcore is rolling out this year. From Natcore's website.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=47&Itemid=81&pid=53
In early 2009, Natcore projected revenue of $5.00 per 150 watt panel for their AR-coating. Natcore believes that their revenue projections are still valid. Since then Natcore has added passivation and the ability to etch typical flat wafers in order to produce black silicon. Using the $5.00 of revenue for each 150 watts of pv panels manufactured, Natcore will realize $33 million of revenue per gigawatt of pv panels manufactured using Natcore's AR-Boxes and LPD process.
1 gigawatt (1,000,000,000 watts) divided by 150 watts = 6,666,000 X $5.00 = $33,330,000
More on the AR-Box.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=130&Itemid=75
Statement from Natcore: The final production system will measure about 20' X 8' X 6' high. It will be a self-contained modular system capable of recycling its own effluents and of producing 3,000 AR-coated wafers/hour.
Suntech's website shows that their 240 watt panels have 60 wafers. It seems that figuring 4 watts per wafer is accurate.
MAXIMUM watt output of AR-coated wafers for one AR-Box:
3,000 wafers per hour X 4 watts each = 12,000 watts per hour
12,000 watts per hour X 24 hours = 288,000 watts per day
288,000 watts per day X 365 days = 105,120,000 watts per year
105,000,000 watts per year = 105 MW of AR-coated wafers per year (MAXIMUM)
From the first calculation above: 1 gigawatt of AR-coated wafers @ $5 per each 150 watts = $33,330,000
105 MW = .105 gigawatt X $33,330,000 = $3,500,000 in revenue from each AR-Box (MAXIMUM)
Realistically, I don't think that anyone will run the AR-Box 24/7, 365 days a year. However, I think that the advantages of Natcore's black silicon offering will result in revenue that is higher than the $5 for each 150 watts worth of AR-coated wafers. Plus, in time, I'm hoping that Natcore receives extra revenue due to a reduction in the thickness of the silicon wafers used by the panel fabricators. This reduction is made possible by the LPD process.
For now I'm using 1/2 of the maximum revenue for each AR-Box = $1,750,000.
I think that the $3,500,000 in revenue from 2 AR-Boxes will result in Natcore being slightly profitable.
One more item regarding AR-Boxes:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-21/natcore-to-deliver-anti-reflective-coating-system-to-chinese-solar-maker.html
FLEXIBLE SOLAR CELLS: "Once ready for sale, Natcore's thin film solar cell array technology will cause a paradigm shift in the market by exceeding the DOE-established price levels needed to achieve grid parity for the price of solar generated electricity. A roll of thin film cells will reduce the cost of making a solar panel and the time required to install a commercial solar array by at least 60%."
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=101&Itemid=103&pid=53
Natcore is projecting that the near term module efficiency using this technology will be equivalent to commercial silicon modules of 15% to 16%, and the longer term improvements will raise the efficiency to 20% or more.
Global Solar's new flexible roll system has an efficiency of 11-12%. This is the highest I have found. They are targeting 14%:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/video/intersolar11globalsolar?cmpid=WNL-Friday-July22-2011
BREAKING REVOLUTIONARY NEWS!!!
PRESS RELEASE SYMBOL: NXT.V; NTCXF.PK
Natcore and Kodak:
Natcore Scientists Prove Feasibility of All-Quantum-Dot Tandem Solar Cell
Could Double Power Output, Dramatically Reduce Costs
Red Bank, NJ — (September 7, 2011) — A research team working under Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX-V: NXT; NTCXF.PK) co-founder Prof. Andrew Barron has fabricated two families of multilayer quantum dot films, one with silicon quantum dots and the other with germanium quantum dots, both of which have demonstrated the ability to produce a photo-generated current.
Achieved under the Natcore joint research agreement with Rice University, this advance has significant consequences for the thin-film solar cells that Natcore is developing in its Research & Development Center at Kodak’s Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY. It could eliminate the need for a silicon wafer sub cell, also accelerating Natcore’s drive toward a low cost tandem solar cell.
Each film is comprised of layers of silicon or germanium quantum dots embedded in a silica matrix. The silica matrix is produced using the patented Liquid Phase Deposition (LPD) silica growth technology that Natcore has exclusively licensed from Rice University. Unlike preceding attempts to make such layers using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technology, Natcore's approach decouples quantum dot formation from the silica layer growth and allows for completely independent selection of quantum dot type, size and spacing in the silica layer.
The photo-generated current measurements are the first of their kind for this sort of structure and showed unequivocally that both film types (i.e., with Si quantum dots or Ge quantum dots) were photoactive in different spectral regions. The larger Ge quantum dots were responsive to an infrared-rich light source and the Si quantum dots were responsive to a UV-rich light source, consistent with expectations. Smaller quantum dots (the Si quantum dot diameters were between 1 nm and 2 nm) will respond more readily to shorter wavelengths of light, while larger quantum dots (the Ge quantum dot diameters were between 5 nm and 6 nm) will respond more readily to longer light wavelengths, precisely as observed.
"This accomplishment by Professor Barron and his group is an outstanding achievement and confirms that making, and ultimately commercially producing, an all-quantum dot tandem solar cell using Natcore's LPD film growth technology is on target," said Dr. Dennis Flood, Natcore's Chief Technology Officer. "Our goal to show that multiple layers of quantum dots can be assembled using a low-cost, complete wet chemistry approach has been validated. The fact that we have demonstrated photocurrent generation in both Si and Ge quantum dot multilayer devices means that the entire solar cell could potentially be fabricated without the use of expensive silicon wafers for the bottom sub cell of a two- or three-cell tandem device. We could do so by substituting a Ge quantum dot device for the silicon solar cell and achieve the same overall solar absorption as would have been achieved with the latter. This achievement could make it possible to use low-cost, roll-to-roll manufacturing techniques to achieve a truly low-cost solar module that would have twice the power output of the average solar module on the market today. "
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=41777039&qm_symbol=NXT:CA
To my knowledge, Natcore has not made public a revenue projection for roll to roll products.
TANDEM SOLAR CELLS: "Natcore's scientists have discovered that its LPD process could allow, for the first time, mass manufacturing of super-efficient (30%+) tandem solar cells. For comparison purposes, these cells could achieve twice the power output of today's most efficient solar cells."
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=100&Itemid=102&pid=53
Natcore Leaps Forward In Quest For High-Efficiency Tandem Cell:
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=96&Itemid=75
Natcore's shareholders are eagerly awaiting the next tandem cell update. Natcore has projected that they will receive $100 of revenue, from the panel manufacturers, for each 300 watt tandem cell panel produced, or $333 million per gigawatt of tandem cell panels produced. This is a very high revenue number for a company that has small expenditures. Can it be justified? Yes, in my opinion, here's why. Doubling the efficiency of solar panels will only add the $100 that goes to Natcore while halving the cost of panel components, packaging, and shipping. The amount of land needed and the cost for land, for utility scale projects, should be halved. The installation costs and panel maintenance costs should be reduced by nearly 50%. Future recycling costs should be halved. If used on roofs, the weight and space needed will be halved. Additionally, Natcore's LPD process allows for silicon wafer thickness to be drastically reduced. All while providing a greener panel production process.
I believe that the tandem cell will cause the end market for solar pv to absolutely explode. Rewarding Natcore with unfathomable revenue and profits.
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) may be a victim of the tandem cell. CSP is already coming under pressure:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/08/500-mw-of-california-solar-shifts-from-csp-to-pv?cmpid=WNL-Friday-August19-2011
OTHER APPLICATIONS: Very exciting non-solar applications with huge end markets.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=49&Itemid=54
Share Structure as of 6/14/2011
TSX Venture Exchange Symbol: NXT.V
OTC/Pink Sheet Symbol: NTCXF.PK
Shares Outstanding: 33,861,276
Warrants Outstanding: 6,986,568
Options Outstanding: 3,065,000
Shares Outstanding Fully Diluted: 43,912,844
Shares in Escrow: 2,905,452
Originally: 9,684,835
Of the 6,986,568 warrants shown, 2,700,000 warrants, with a stock price of $.75, expired on 8/29/11. With the overall market weakness and the precipitous solar sector decline, Natcore's shares have fallen to bargain levels. I can't imagine that too many of these warrants were exercised. The non-exercise of these warrants will lower the fully diluted outstanding share count.
I attended Natcore's Annual General Meeting on 6/6/11. Here are my notes:
Notes from Natcore's AGM
Natcore was represented by Chuck Provini(CEO), Brien Lundin(Chairman), and Tom Scarpa(IR). We were shown a new slide show and there was a lengthy q&a session. Brien was very active in the discussions. I came away feeling that he is a hands on chairman, board member, and founder.
Natcore has 11 patents and 17 patents pending. Most of the patents pending are duplicate patents filed in China. Natcore/China met with the head of the Chinese patent office and was assured that all patents will be honored, provided they are filed by Chinese companies. Natcore/China qualifies as a Chinese company. Provini stated that Natcore will have to have a Chinese partner for their Chinese thin film roll to roll business in order to have patent protection in China. A US based thin film roll to roll partner is preferred for Natcore's worldwide thin film roll to roll business. At the present time, Natcore has no plans to manufacture the thin film roll to roll or tandem cell panels themselves. Brien Lundin stated that Natcore prefers to have manufacturing experts handle the manufacturing.
Funding ...
Grants from US, state, and local governments are still a possibility. Natcore will not accept low interest loans, as they have no interest in taking on debt.
Seed money from Malaysia has already been offered. Chuck and Brien didn't elaborate on this. This may not be a preferred option.
Phono Solar has offered to fund all of Natcore's needs. A ballpark offer of $15 - $30 million offered was mentioned. Phono Solar currently has a silicon solar capacity of 500 MW. They plan to double that capacity. Phono Solar is a division of Sumec Group, which is a division of Sinomach, the largest Chinese overseas power plant contractor with sales of $15 billion last year.
The Kodak situation is still unclear. Chuck and Brien wouldn't speculate. However, they do feel that Natcore and Kodak share a very good relationship.
Chuck deferred my future private placement question to Brien. Brien stated that while a future pp cannot be entirely ruled out, it's his belief that we have seen the last one. He said if the right investor came along, and the price was right, it would have to be considered.
Natcore has the cash from the recent pp, the May warrant conversions, and will receive more cash from the upcoming September warrant conversions. Money from Natcore's Chinese partners will start flowing in shortly. Provini estimates Natcore's cash burn rate at $125,000 per month including the new lab. Chuck stated that the Kodak agreement saved Natcore millions of dollars in equipment purchases necessary to develop the thin film roll to roll technology.
Technology Update ...
Black silicon passivation and AR coating coming soon. Test results should be in hand in 2-3 months with sales after that. Natcore plans to distribute 1000's of samples to solar manufacturers. Natcore expects solar manufacturers to switch from conventional flat wafers to the textured black silicon wafers. Natcore expects output from the black silicon panels to be 20-30% greater than fixed in place conventional panels. The output gains come from greater sunlight absorption, from different sunlight angles, due to the textured surface. Currently there are 3 potential buyers for the Intelligent LPD Process machines. No elaboration beyond TLNZ Solar. Natcore expects more buyers after the coated black silicon samples go out. It sounded like Natcore thinks they have a big winner here with the passivation and AR coating of black silicon.
Natcore's scientists believe that the nanostructure flexible thin film can have a tandem coating eventually. They say this will halve the cost and double the output. Natcore and Kodak are scheduled to start development of the thin film roll to roll in late July. Chuck stated that Natcore receives 4-5 calls a week from current and former Kodak engineers that are familiar with Natcore's potential. Some are looking for work, others with ideas regarding applications for Natcore's technology. Natcore is looking to hire a few downsized Kodak employees for their lab.
Things should start moving more quickly now with the tandem cell technology. Due to monetary and lab restrictions, only one graduate student at Rice U, under the direction of Dr. Barron, has been actively involved (per Dr. Flood last week). Chuck stated that we should see a proof of concept tandem device in a matter of months. Brien talked about tandem cell commercialization in 20-40 months. Last week, Dr. Flood estimated 24-30 months. Phono Solar and TLNZ Solar are chomping at the bit for tandem cells.
Natcore is monitoring the sample Nanoshades in CT. With all else going on, it sounded like NanoShades has been shelved for the time being. Chuck stated that it will be a great product due to its ability to cool (shade) and generate electricity at the same time.
Natcore met with MicroTech last week in NJ. Brien stated that the talks were very exciting. MicroTech stated to Brien and Chuck that even they may not know what they have regarding the potential of the LPD process and the Intelligent LPD Processing machine. One of the slides presented showed the machine. It looked pretty impressive. The machine incorporates devices and procedures that only MicroTech can provide. It has an exclusive laser device for measuring the thickness of the coating while the wafers are submerged. It has an exclusive powder drying component (the silicon industry currently uses air drying which steaks the surface). The machine can also determine if particles are growing on each other away from the wafers. When particle growth away from the intended growth on wafers occurs at a predetermined magnitude, it is time to change out the chemical solution. Brien stated that it was decided that MicoTech is going to hold on to the machine for a couple of weeks in order to show it to their clients. MicroTech believes the machines will be a huge seller. Also, Brien stated that MicroTech wants to work as closely with Natcore as Natcore will allow.
Closing remarks ...
The management team stated that they know of no competing technology when I asked them to assess risks. They said that a new, supposedly exciting, technology comes out of universities every week, but none of them are commercially viable. They feel the number one risk to the business is giving away too much in return for backing. They stated that they are working with 800 pound gorillas. The other risk they pointed out was losing focus and drifting into too many projects too soon. Brien stated that eventually there will be so many developed applications and businesses that it will be difficult to manage properly. To avoid this, Natcore plans to spin off businesses to its shareholders as things progress.
The name of the Intelligent LPD Processing machine has been changed to AR-Box.
In early 2009, Natcore predicted that solar panels would become a commodity, bingo! They also forecast that solar panel manufacturers would be forced to adopt Natcore's disruptive technology in order to stay competitive. It looks like this adoption will begin before year's end.
Regards,
Thomas J. Scarpa
Senior Vice President
Natcore Technology, Inc.
87 Maple Avenue, Red Bank, NJ 07701
732-576-8800, fax 732-576-8809
email: scarpa@natcoresolar.com
http://www.natcoresolar.com/
Symbol: NXT.V, Toronto Venture Exchange: NTCXF.PK, OTC/Pink Sheet
email from Tom Scarpa regarding my letter:
I posted this letter, which contains the latest PR and a reminder for the recipient to sign up for Company emails, so it has a link and so that it can be used by any of you if you wish.
Natcore also asked for a final version of this letter and asked for permission to use it. Of course I granted permission.
Tom Scarpa, Brien Lundin, Dr. Flood, and Natcore's legal rep reviewed the letter.
Tom said it was great.
Brien told Tom that it was excellent. Tom told me that.
Dr. Flood told Tom that he was impressed with the accuracy and that Tom should tell me how impressed he was. Tom told me that.
I take Dr. Floods comments to mean that my revenue and profit expectations are in the ballpark.
The get the Natcore Story out is on!!!
JB
Extolling The Attributes Of Natcore Technology
Dear Rachel,
While viewing your website, I noticed that CMEA has invested in clean energy companies and has an interest in ultra-low cost flexible photovoltaic cells. I applaud CMEA for all your clean energy investments. (See below for breaking news regarding ultra-low cost flexible photovoltaic cells)
I am an individual investor that focuses on solar pv. I strongly believe that I have uncovered a small, relatively unknown technology company that will have a game changing impact in the solar pv space due to their disruptive technology. This little gem also has tremendous upside potential from many applications outside of the solar arena.
The Company I'm referring to is Natcore Technology. This introduction is from Natcore's website - www.natcoresolar.com
WE HAVE TECHNOLOGY THAT WILL CHANGE THE WORLD
That's a bold claim. But consider this: Natcore Technology controls a new thin-film growth process that promises to allow mass manufacturing of tandem solar cells with twice the efficiency of the best solar cells available today.
This would mean that solar energy would finally be cost-competitive with conventional power. And that we can significantly diminish our dependence on fossil fuels.
Moreover, our technology allows for solar cell production that eradicates the need for toxic silane; eliminates the need for intensive energy used to apply the antireflective coating; and significantly lowers silicon usage. But our world-changing technology also promises to have a dramatic impact on semiconductor devices; optical components; eyewear; aerospace exploration; and architectural coatings, among other uses.
Read More
I have conversed with the combination of Chuck Provini (CEO), Brien Lundin (Chairman), Dr. Dennis Flood (CTO), and Tom Scarpa (IR) many times. They are very accessable and I have found their passion to be contagious, and their integrity to be at the highest level. The following is a brief discription taken from Natcore's website.
Chuck Provini (CEO) graduated from, and has been a leadership instructor at the U.S. Navel Academy and Chairman of the U.S. Naval Academy's Honor Board.
Brien Lunden (Chairman) is a co-founder of Natcore. He is an executive, marketer and investor with experience in financing and advising early-stage technology and natural resource enterprises.
Dennis Flood, PhD, (CTO) is a Natcore founder. He has more than 30 years of experience in developing solar cell and array technology for both space and terrestial applications. At the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, he served for 15 years as Chief of the Photovoltaic and Space Enviroments Branch and led programs in advanced photovoltaic systems development.
Professor Andrew Barron is a co-founder of, and technical consultant to Natcore. Currently, the Charles W. Duncan Jr. - Welch Chair of Chemistry and Professor of Materials Science at Rice University.
Natcore does not plan to manufacture solar cells. Instead, they plan to sell materials, deposition systems and licenses, based on their technology, to companies that do so. In my opinion, this business model has very low capital expenditures built in. It should also result in a very high net income percentage.
PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE dated 7/11/11
Now there is one. There could soon be five.
I'm talking about AR-Box™. That's Natcore's intelligent processing system, our new machine that will allow us to refine and deliver a self-contained, cost-effective, anti-reflective (AR) coating process to solar fabrication facilities.
We first told you about AR-Box just four months ago, when we began producing it at MicroTech Systems in Fremont, CA. Now we are in the machine's final testing phase. We are also working on integrating our black silicon application to this tool, which will make AR-Box the only machine able to grow an AR coating on black silicon.
AR-Box will allow us to refine and deliver a cost-effective AR coating process to solar fabrication facilities. Moreover, our black silicon application could increase efficiency of solar cells by two to three percent, and could increase total daily power output by a much greater degree. (We're breaking entirely new ground here, and there's no way to accurately determine the power advantages of a black silicon solar cell until we actually create one and test it.)
We are having "AR-Box 1" installed in our new laboratory facility at the Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY, where we plan to consolidate our R&D efforts. This facility exceeds our advanced equipment, clean room and testing requirements and, along with a joint development agreement that we have signed with Kodak, will enable us to tap into the rich talent pool in Rochester - including many highly credentialed casualties of their downsizing. This will greatly increase our scientific and intellectual depth, and allow us to proceed at a much faster rate on our other technologies and applications.
The thrust of our efforts with Kodak will be to utilize their equipment and experience in high-speed, roll-to-roll manufacturing of thin films as we develop a flexible solar cell. Kodak's cutting-edge facilities, as well as their leading expertise, are at our disposal for relatively small cash outflows. This roll-to-roll technology could reduce the cost to manufacture solar cells by as much as 60 percent.
(Please note that we will continue to utilize Professor Andrew Barron's group at Rice University, through joint research agreements, to develop our tandem solar cell and to explore additional applications for our technology.)
AR-Box #2 will go to Hunan TLNZ Solar Technology Co. Ltd. of Xiangtan, China, with whom we have signed a letter of understanding. After extensive testing and adjustments in Fremont, if necessary, the device will be shipped to TLNZ. The sale closing is contingent upon a successful test by TLNZ.
AR-Box #3 will be sent to Natcore Technology (Zhuzhou) Ltd., our joint venture formed with the Zhuzhou Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone. (I've been asked why we didn't build AR-Box 1 at our joint venture. The answer is simple: We wanted our first machine to be perfect. Our strategy has paid off: We have two very important, patented improvements that were conceived and implemented after construction began. Simply put, these options had not been thought of before and do not exist currently in China or anywhere else. American technology is still the best in the world.)
We have confidence that AR-Box #4 will be sold to another large Chinese solar company. This company, with a 500-megawatt production facility (this is equal to the entire U.S. solar cell production capacity), will be sending a delegation including their CEO and CTO to visit our Rice and Rochester labs in mid-August. They want to discuss how our process can be integrated into their fabrication lines. We also plan to discuss potential joint venture opportunities with them.
We hope to build AR-Box #5 for an Italian solar company that will be visiting us early in August to evaluate our equipment and investigate joint venture opportunities here in the United States. This company, too, will send their CEO and CTO to meet with us. We have already met with them in Red Bank, at their New Jersey facility, and in Milan.
As you can see, we are focused on identifying and partnering with world-class companies with extensive manufacturing experience. By partnering with the very best manufacturers to integrate our equipment and technology seamlessly into fabrication lines, we know we will be able to meet any company's needs in the future.
We could have built AR-Box 1 more quickly, and perhaps sold one sooner into a Chinese production line. We chose not to go this route, however, because our goal is to make Natcore's products the gold standard in the industry.
We are not trying to make a quick trade; we are trying to build a business. We are not in this for an exit strategy - we want to deliver revolutionary products that transform entire industries and richly reward our shareholders.
And, along the way, we plan to change the world for the better.
Charles Provini, President, CEO, & Director
The large Chinese solar company is Phono Solar. They plan to double their 500-megawatt production capacity to 1-gigawatt. Their parent company is a conglomerate with $15 billion in sales. They will arrive in the U.S. on 9/25. Natcore is confident of an AR-Box sale to them.
The Italian solar company is MX Solar. They were in the U.S. in early August. Natcore is traveling to Italy to meet with them in early September. Natcore is confident of an AR-Box sale to them.
Natcore plans to ship thousands of the LPD process AR-coated, passavated black silicon wafer samples to silicon pv solar manufacturers real soon. They also expect that an AR-Box will be part of a pv panel manufacturer's wafer processing line by the end of the year.
LIQUID PHASE DEPOSITION: This is what Natcore is rolling out this year. From Natcore's website.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=47&Itemid=81&pid=53
In early 2009, Natcore projected revenue of $5.00 per 150 watt panel for their AR-coating. Natcore believes that their revenue projections are still valid. Since then Natcore has added passavation and the ability to etch typical flat wafers in order to produce black silicon. Using the $5.00 of revenue for each 150 watts of pv panels manufactured, Natcore will realize $33 million of revenue per gigawatt of pv panels manufactured using Natcore's AR-Boxes and LPD process.
1 gigawatt (1,000,000,000 watts) divided by 150 watts = 6,666,000 X $5.00 = $33,330,000
More on the AR-Box.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=130&Itemid=75
Statement from Natcore: The final production system will measure about 20' X 8' X 6' high. It will be a self-contained modular system capable of recycling it's own effluents and of producing 3,000 AR-coated wafers/hour.
Suntech's website shows that their 240 watt panels have 60 wafers. It seems that figuring 4 watts per wafer is accurate.
MAXIMUM watt output of AR-coated wafers for one AR-Box:
3,000 wafers per hour X 4 watts each = 12,000 watts per hour
12,000 watts per hour X 24 hours = 288,000 watts per day
288,000 watts per day X 365 days = 105,120,000 watts per year
105,000,000 watts per year = 105 MW of AR-coated wafers per year (MAXIMUM)
From the first calculation above: 1 gigawatt of AR-coated wafers @ $5 per each 150 watts = $33,330,000
105 MW = .105 gigawatt X $33,330,000 = $3,500,000 in revenue from each AR-Box (MAXIMUM)
Realistically, I don't think that anyone will run the AR-Box 24/7, 365 days a year. However, I think that the advantages of Natcore's black silicon offering will result in revenue that is higher than the $5 for each 150 watts worth of AR-coated wafers. Plus, in time, I'm hoping that Natcore receives extra revenue due to a reduction in the thickness of the silicon wafers used by the panel fabricators. This reduction is made possible by the LPD process.
For now I'm using 1/2 of the maximum revenue for each AR-Box = $1,750,000.
I think that the $3,500,000 in revenue from 2 AR-Boxes will result in Natcore being slightly profitable.
One more item regarding AR-Boxes:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-21/natcore-to-deliver-anti-reflective-coating-system-to-chinese-solar-maker.html
FLEXIBLE SOLAR CELLS: "Once ready for sale, Natcore's thin film solar cell array technology will cause a paradigm shift in the market by exceeding the DOE-established price levels needed to achieve grid parity for the price of solar generated electricity. A roll of thin film cells will reduce the cost of making a solar panel and the time required to install a commercial solar array by at least 60%."
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=101&Itemid=103&pid=53
Natcore is projecting that the near term module efficiency using this technology will be equivalent to commercial silicon modules of 15% to 16%, and the longer term improvements will raise the efficiency to 20% or more.
Global Solar's new flexible roll system has an efficiency of 11-12%. This is the highest I have found. They are targeting 14%:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/video/intersolar11globalsolar?cmpid=WNL-Friday-July22-2011
BREAKING REVOLUTIONARY NEWS!!!
PRESS RELEASE SYMBOL: NXT.V; NTCXF.PK
Natcore and Kodak:
Contact: Chuck Provini
732-576-8800
Natcore Scientists Prove Feasibility of
All-Quantum-Dot Tandem Solar Cell
Could Double Power Output,
Dramatically Reduce Costs
Red Bank, NJ — (September 7, 2011) — A research team working under Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX-V: NXT; NTCXF.PK) co-founder Prof. Andrew Barron has fabricated two families of multilayer quantum dot films, one with silicon quantum dots and the other with germanium quantum dots, both of which have demonstrated the ability to produce a photo-generated current.
Achieved under the Natcore joint research agreement with Rice University, this advance has significant consequences for the thin-film solar cells that Natcore is developing in its Research & Development Center at Kodak’s Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY. It could eliminate the need for a silicon wafer subcell, also accelerating Natcore’s drive toward a low cost tandem solar cell.
Each film is comprised of layers of silicon or germanium quantum dots embedded in a silica matrix. The silica matrix is produced using the patented Liquid Phase Deposition (LPD) silica growth technology that Natcore has exclusively licensed from Rice University. Unlike preceding attempts to make such layers using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technology, Natcore's approach decouples quantum dot formation from the silica layer growth and allows for completely independent selection of quantum dot type, size and spacing in the silica layer.
The photo-generated current measurements are the first of their kind for this sort of structure and showed unequivocally that both film types (i.e., with Si quantum dots or Ge quantum dots) were photoactive in different spectral regions. The larger Ge quantum dots were responsive to an infrared-rich light source and the Si quantum dots were responsive to a UV-rich light source, consistent with expectations. Smaller quantum dots (the Si quantum dot diameters were between 1 nm and 2 nm) will respond more readily to shorter wavelengths of light, while larger quantum dots (the Ge quantum dot diameters were between 5 nm and 6 nm) will respond more readily to longer light wavelengths, precisely as observed.
"This accomplishment by Professor Barron and his group is an outstanding achievement and confirms that making, and ultimately commercially producing, an all-quantum dot tandem solar cell using Natcore's LPD film growth technology is on target," said Dr. Dennis Flood, Natcore's Chief Technology Officer. "Our goal to show that multiple layers of quantum dots can be assembled using a low-cost, complete wet chemistry approach has been validated. The fact that we have demonstrated photocurrent generation in both Si and Ge quantum dot multilayer devices means that the entire solar cell could potentially be fabricated without the use of expensive silicon wafers for the bottom subcell of a two- or three-cell tandem device. We could do so by substituting a Ge quantum dot device for the silicon solar cell and achieve the same overall solar absorption as would have been achieved with the latter. This achievement could make it possible to use low-cost, roll-to-roll manufacturing techniques to achieve a truly low-cost solar module that would have twice the power output of the average solar module on the market today. "
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=41777039&qm_symbol=NXT:CA
To my knowledge, Natcore has not made public a revenue projection.
TANDEM SOLAR CELLS: "Natcore's scientists have discovered that it's LPD process could allow, for the first time, mass manufacturing of super-efficient (30%+) tandem solar cells. For comparison purposes, these cells could achieve twice the power output of today's most efficient solar cells."
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=100&Itemid=102&pid=53
Natcore Leaps Forward In Quest For High-Efficiency Tandem Cell:
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=96&Itemid=75
Natcore's shareholders are eagerly awaiting the next tandem cell update. Natcore has projected that they will receive $100 of revenue, from the panel manufacturers, for each 300 watt tandem cell panel produced, or $333 million per gigawatt of tandem cell panels produced. This is a very high revenue number for a company that has small expendatures. Can it be justified? Yes, in my opinion, here's why. Doubling the efficiency of solar panels will only add the $100 that goes to Natcore while halving the cost of panel components, packaging, and shipping. The amount of land needed and the cost for land, for utility scale projects, should be halved. The installation costs and panel maintanence costs should be reduced by nearly 50%. Future recycling costs should be halved. If used on roofs, the weight and space needed will be halved. Additionally, Natcore's LPD process allows for silicon wafer thickness to be drastically reduced. All while providing a greener panel production process.
I believe that the tandem cell will cause the end market for solar pv to absolutely explode. Rewarding Natcore with unfathomable revenue and profits.
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) may be a victim of the tandem cell. CSP is already coming under pressure:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/08/500-mw-of-california-solar-shifts-from-csp-to-pv?cmpid=WNL-Friday-August19-2011
OTHER APPLICATIONS: Very exciting non-solar applications with huge end markets.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=49&Itemid=54
Share Structure as of 6/14/2011
TSX Venture Exchange Symbol: NXT.V
OTC/Pink Sheet Symbol: NTCXF.PK
Shares Outstanding: 33,861,276
Warrants Outstanding: 6,986,568
Options Outstanding: 3,065,000
Shares Outstanding Fully Diluted: 43,912,844
Shares in Escrow: 2,905,452
Originally: 9,684,835
Of the 6,986,568 warrants shown, 2,700,000 warrants, with a stike price of $.75, expired on 8/29/11. With the overall market weakness and the precipitous solar sector decline, Natcore's shares have fallen to bargain levels. I can't imagine that too many of these warrants were exercised. The non-exercise of these warrants will lower the fully diluted outstanding share count.
I attended Natcore's Annual General Meeting on 6/6/11. Here are my notes:
Notes from Natcore's AGM
Natcore was represented by Chuck Provini(CEO), Brien Lundin(Chairman), and Tom Scarpa(IR). We were shown a new slide show and there was a lengthy q&a session. Brien was very active in the discussions. I came away feeling that he is a hands on chairman, board member, and founder.
Natcore has 11 patents and 17 patents pending. Most of the patents pending are duplicate patents filed in China. Natcore/China met with the head of the Chinese patent office and were assured that all patents will be honored, provided they are filed by Chinese companies. Natcore/China qualifies as a Chinese company. Provini stated that Natcore will have to have a Chinese partner for their Chinese thin film roll to roll business in order to have patent protection in China. A US based thin film roll to roll partner is preferred for Natcore's worldwide thin film roll to roll business. At the present time, Natcore has no plans to manufacture the thin film roll to roll or tandem cell panels themselves. Brien Lunden stated that Natcore prefers to have manufacturing experts handle the manufacturing.
Funding ...
Grants from US, state, and local governments are still a possibility. Natcore will not accept low interest loans, as they have no interest in taking on debt.
Seed money from Malasyia has already been offered. Chuck and Brien didn't elaborate on this. This may not be a preferred option.
Phono Solar has offered to fund all of Natcore's needs. A ballpark offer of $15 - $30 million offered was mentioned. Phono Solar currently has a silicon solar capacity of 500 MW. They plan to double that capacity. Phono Solar is a division of Sumec Group, which is a division of Sinomach, the largest Chinese overseas power plant contractor with sales of $15 billion last year.
The Kodak situation is still unclear. Chuck and Brien wouldn't speculate. However, they do feel that Natcore and Kodak share a very good relationship.
Chuck deferred my future private placement question to Brien. Brien stated that while a future pp cannot be entirely ruled out, it's his belief that we have seen the last one. He said if the right investor came along, and the price was right, it would have to be considered.
Natcore has the cash from the recent pp, the May warrant conversions, and will receive more cash from the upcoming September warrant conversions. Money from Natcore's Chinese partners will start flowing in shortly. Provini estimates Natcore's cash burn rate at $125,000 per month including the new lab. Chuck stated that the Kodak agreement saved Natcore millions of dollars in equipment purchases necessary to develop the thin film roll to roll technology.
Technology Update ...
Black silicon passivation and AR coating coming soon. Test results should be in hand in 2-3 months with sales after that. Natcore plans to distribute 1000's of samples to solar manufacturers. Natcore expects solar manufacturers to switch from conventional flat wafers to the textured black silicon wafers. Natcore expects output from the black silicon panels to be 20-30% greater than fixed in place conventional panels. The output gains come from greater sunlight absorbtion, from different sunlight angles, due to the textured surface. Currently there are 3 potential buyers for the Intelligent LPD Process machines. No elaboration beyond TLNZ Solar. Natcore expects more buyers after the coated black silicon samples go out. It sounded like Natcore thinks they have a big winner here with the passivation and AR coating of black silicon.
Natcore's scientists believe that the nanostructured flexible thin film can have a tandem coating eventually. They say this will halve the cost and double the output. Natcore and Kodak are scheduled to start development of the thin film roll to roll in late July. Chuck stated that Natcore receives 4-5 calls a week from current and former Kodak engineers that are familiar with Natcore's potential. Some are looking for work, others with ideas regarding applications for Natcore's technology. Natcore is looking to hire a few downsized Kodak employees for their lab.
Things should start moving more quickly now with the tandem cell technology. Due to monetary and lab restrictions, only one graduate student at Rice U, under the direction of Dr. Barron, has been actively involved (per Dr. Flood last week). Chuck stated that we should see a proof of concept tandem device in a matter of months. Brien talked about tandem cell commercialization in 20-40 months. Last week, Dr. Flood estimated 24-30 months. Phono Solar and TLNZ Solar are chomping at the bit for tandem cells.
Natcore is monitoring the sample Nanoshades in CT. With all else going on, it sounded like NanoShades has been shelved for the time being. Chuck stated that it will be a great product due to its ability to cool (shade) and generate electricity at the same time.
Natcore met with MicroTech last week in NJ. Brien stated that the talks were very exciting. MicroTech stated to Brien and Chuck that even they may not know what they have regarding the potential of the LPD process and the Intelligent LPD Processing machine. One of the slides presented showed the machine. It looked pretty impressive. The machine incorporates devices and procedures that only MicroTech can provide. It has an exclusive lazor device for measuring the thickness of the coating while the wafers are submerged. It has an exclusive powder drying component (the silicon industry currently uses air drying which steaks the surface). The machine can also determine if particles are growing on each other away from the wafers. When particle growth away from the intended growth on wafers occurs at a predetermined magnitude, it is time to change out the chemical solution. Brien stated that it was decided that MicoTech is going to hold on to the machine for a couple of weeks in order to show it to their clients. MicroTech believes the machines will be a huge seller. Also, Brien stated that MicroTech wants to work as closely with Natcore as Natcore will allow.
Closing remarks ...
The management team stated that they know of no competing technology when I asked them to assess risks. They said that a new, supposedly exciting, technology comes out of universities every week, but none of them are commercially viable. They feel the number one risk to the business is giving away too much in return for backing. They stated that they are working with 800 pound gorillas. The other risk they pointed out was losing focus and drifting into too many projects too soon. Brien stated that eventually there will be so many developed applications and businesses that it will be difficult to manage properly. To avoid this, Natcore plans to spin off businesses to it's shareholders as things progress.
JB
The name of the Intelligent LPD Processing machine has been changed to AR-Box.
In early 2009, Natcore predicted that solar panels would become a commodity, bingo! They also forecast that solar panel manfacturers would be forced to adopt Natcore's disruptive technology in order to stay competetive. It looks like this adoption will begin before year's end.
Thanks for your time. Please let me know what you think. Go to www.natcoresolar.com to sign up for Company emails.
All the best,
Jim
GM dough,
This info is for the silicon tandem cell:
nashville, thank you for the very informative post!
Very timely too! Obviously, Natcore is well aware of Tetrapod Quantum Dots. There is no need for me to contact them.
JB
DDhawk, welcome to the board.
For an introduction to Natcore, please see post #1192. The letter in that post is intended to introduce investors to Natcore. Of course, I will add yesterday's news to the letter.
Natcore has made great strides in the last 15 months. Us shareholders are very optomistic with regards to the future. Tom Scarpa (IR) recently told me to expect more PR's in the near future. He said some of these PR's are anticipated, some are not. It could get even more interesting in the next few months.
All the best,
JB
Solar Express, welcome to the board.
Natcore has successfully manufactured their own quantum dots. However, I will forward your information to them and ask if there is any advantage in using Tetrapod Quantum Dots. Dr. Flood and Dr. Barron are currently in Italy working with CEO Provini on a deal with MX Solar. We may not hear back for awhile.
timewaster, welcome to the board.
futr, I know what you mean by being excited!
This all that I was hoping for!
Natcore Scientists Prove Feasibility of All-Quantum-Dot Tandem Solar Cell
We all knew about the possibility of doubling the power output, but, I didn't expect Natcore to dramatically reduce costs!
Natcore Scientists Prove Feasibility of
All-Quantum-Dot Tandem Solar Cell
Could Double Power Output,
Dramatically Reduce Costs
Natcore must have had the contents of this PR in mind when they stated:
Thin film solar cells have long been regarded as the ultimate future of photovoltaic solar energy technology for one major reason: their lower materials utilization should result in lower manufacturing cost in very high volume production.
and stated:
Natcore is hard at work to demonstrate the desired cell performance at the large scale needed to move into roll-to-roll manufacturing. The company is working on a teaming relationship with a major U.S. film manufacturer to accelerate its progress toward marketing this near term product. Once ready for sale, Natcore's thin film solar cell array technology will cause a paradigm shift in the market by exceeding the DOE-established price levels needed to achieve grid parity for the price of solar generated electricity.
http://www.natcoresolar.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=101&Itemid=103&pid=53
Think of how great it would be for a Natcore licensed manufacturer to produce rolls of flexible thin film tandem material and ship the rolls to any place in the world. The panel assembler that receives these rolls cuts the rolls into pieces and uses the pieces in their panels.
The last Presidents message let us know that, in addition to the sale of AR-Boxes, Natcore was discussing possible JV opportunities with MX Solar and Phono Solar.
We have confidence that AR-Box #4 will be sold to another large Chinese solar company. This company, with a 500-megawatt production facility (this is equal to the entire U.S. solar cell production capacity), will be sending a delegation including their CEO and CTO to visit our Rice and Rochester labs in mid-August. They want to discuss how our process can be integrated into their fabrication lines. We also plan to discuss potential joint venture opportunities with them.
We hope to build AR-Box #5 for an Italian solar company that will be visiting us early in August to evaluate our equipment and investigate joint venture opportunities here in the United States. This company, too, will send their CEO and CTO to meet with us. We have already met with them in Red Bank, at their New Jersey facility, and in Milan.
Maybe these companies will become tandem cell panel assemblers in the future.
$$$$$
JB
Natcore email. No additional detail.
PRESS RELEASE SYMBOL: NXT.V; NTCXF.PK
Contact: Chuck Provini
732-576-8800
Natcore Scientists Prove Feasibility of
All-Quantum-Dot Tandem Solar Cell
Could Double Power Output,
Dramatically Reduce Costs
Red Bank, NJ — (September 7, 2011) — A research team working under Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX-V: NXT; NTCXF.PK) co-founder Prof. Andrew Barron has fabricated two families of multilayer quantum dot films, one with silicon quantum dots and the other with germanium quantum dots, both of which have demonstrated the ability to produce a photo-generated current.
Achieved under the Natcore joint research agreement with Rice University, this advance has significant consequences for the thin-film solar cells that Natcore is developing in its Research & Development Center at Kodak’s Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY. It could eliminate the need for a silicon wafer subcell, also accelerating Natcore’s drive toward a low cost tandem solar cell.
Each film is comprised of layers of silicon or germanium quantum dots embedded in a silica matrix. The silica matrix is produced using the patented Liquid Phase Deposition (LPD) silica growth technology that Natcore has exclusively licensed from Rice University. Unlike preceding attempts to make such layers using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technology, Natcore's approach decouples quantum dot formation from the silica layer growth and allows for completely independent selection of quantum dot type, size and spacing in the silica layer.
The photo-generated current measurements are the first of their kind for this sort of structure and showed unequivocally that both film types (i.e., with Si quantum dots or Ge quantum dots) were photoactive in different spectral regions. The larger Ge quantum dots were responsive to an infrared-rich light source and the Si quantum dots were responsive to a UV-rich light source, consistent with expectations. Smaller quantum dots (the Si quantum dot diameters were between 1 nm and 2 nm) will respond more readily to shorter wavelengths of light, while larger quantum dots (the Ge quantum dot diameters were between 5 nm and 6 nm) will respond more readily to longer light wavelengths, precisely as observed.
"This accomplishment by Professor Barron and his group is an outstanding achievement and confirms that making, and ultimately commercially producing, an all-quantum dot tandem solar cell using Natcore's LPD film growth technology is on target," said Dr. Dennis Flood, Natcore's Chief Technology Officer. "Our goal to show that multiple layers of quantum dots can be assembled using a low-cost, complete wet chemistry approach has been validated. The fact that we have demonstrated photocurrent generation in both Si and Ge quantum dot multilayer devices means that the entire solar cell could potentially be fabricated without the use of expensive silicon wafers for the bottom subcell of a two- or three-cell tandem device. We could do so by substituting a Ge quantum dot device for the silicon solar cell and achieve the same overall solar absorption as would have been achieved with the latter. This achievement could make it possible to use low-cost, roll-to-roll manufacturing techniques to achieve a truly low-cost solar module that would have twice the power output of the average solar module on the market today. "
dough, what this PR means is that all of the pv module manufacturers (including the Chinese) are probably in very deep sh!t due to Natcore's superior American technology.
More later. Let's see if Natcore sends out an email with more detail.
$$$$$
JB
Picture in Tandem Cell PR
http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20110907/NY63675
JB
WOW-Tandem Cell Without The Silicon Wafer!
"This accomplishment by Professor Barron and his group is an outstanding achievement and confirms that making, and ultimately commercially producing, an all-quantum dot tandem solar cell using Natcore's LPD film growth technology is on target," said Dr. Dennis Flood, Natcore's Chief Technology Officer. "Our goal to show that multiple layers of quantum dots can be assembled using a low-cost, complete wet chemistry approach has been validated. The fact that we have demonstrated photocurrent generation in both Si and Ge quantum dot multilayer devices means that the entire solar cell could potentially be fabricated without the use of expensive silicon wafers for the bottom subcell of a two- or three-cell tandem device. We could do so by substituting a Ge quantum dot device for the silicon solar cell and achieve the same overall solar absorption as would have been achieved with the latter. This achievement could make it possible to use low-cost, roll-to-roll manufacturing techniques to achieve a truly low-cost solar module that would have twice the power output of the average solar module on the market today. "
NATCORE TANDEM CELL PR
Natcore Scientists Prove Feasibility of All-Quantum-Dot Tandem Solar Cell
A research team working under Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX-V: NXT; NTCXF.PK) co-founder Prof. Andrew Barron has fabricated two families of multilayer quantum dot films, one with silicon quantum dots and the other with germanium quantum dots, both of which have demonstrated the ability to produce a photo-generated current.
Achieved under the Natcore joint research agreement with Rice University, this advance has significant consequences for the thin-film solar cells that Natcore is developing in its Research & Development Center at Kodak's Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY. It could eliminate the need for a silicon wafer subcell, also accelerating Natcore's drive toward a low cost tandem solar cell.
Each film is comprised of layers of silicon or germanium quantum dots embedded in a silica matrix. The silica matrix is produced using the patented Liquid Phase Deposition (LPD) silica growth technology that Natcore has exclusively licensed from Rice University. Unlike preceding attempts to make such layers using chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technology, Natcore's approach decouples quantum dot formation from the silica layer growth and allows for completely independent selection of quantum dot type, size and spacing in the silica layer.
The photo-generated current measurements are the first of their kind for this sort of structure and showed unequivocally that both film types (i.e., with Si quantum dots or Ge quantum dots) were photoactive in different spectral regions. The larger Ge quantum dots were responsive to an infrared-rich light source and the Si quantum dots were responsive to a UV-rich light source, consistent with expectations. Smaller quantum dots (the Si quantum dot diameters were between 1 nm and 2 nm) will respond more readily to shorter wavelengths of light, while larger quantum dots (the Ge quantum dot diameters were between 5 nm and 6 nm) will respond more readily to longer light wavelengths, precisely as observed.
"This accomplishment by Professor Barron and his group is an outstanding achievement and confirms that making, and ultimately commercially producing, an all-quantum dot tandem solar cell using Natcore's LPD film growth technology is on target," said Dr. Dennis Flood, Natcore's Chief Technology Officer. "Our goal to show that multiple layers of quantum dots can be assembled using a low-cost, complete wet chemistry approach has been validated. The fact that we have demonstrated photocurrent generation in both Si and Ge quantum dot multilayer devices means that the entire solar cell could potentially be fabricated without the use of expensive silicon wafers for the bottom subcell of a two- or three-cell tandem device. We could do so by substituting a Ge quantum dot device for the silicon solar cell and achieve the same overall solar absorption as would have been achieved with the latter. This achievement could make it possible to use low-cost, roll-to-roll manufacturing techniques to achieve a truly low-cost solar module that would have twice the power output of the average solar module on the market today. "
I thought I'd post this TMX info that might help some when trying to determine a good time to buy.
Bid Ask
Orders Volume Price Range Price Range Volume Orders
7 84,500 0.590-0.650 0.71-0.800 27,000 9
This is the info at the close yesterday. The info is delayed 15 minutes. This info is for NXT.
http://www.tmx.com/HttpController?GetPage=DelayedMarketByPrice&Market=V&Language=en&SelectedSymbol=NXT
Yesterday NXT.V (American exchange symbol for quotes on NXT) closed at $.66 -- the .XDC (Canadian Dollar/U.S. Dollar) closed at 100.97. Fair value for NTCXF is $.66 X 1.0097 = $.6664.
This mornings pre-market NXT.V bid/ask is $.67/$.71
At 7:40 CT the .XDC is at 101.30. This exchange rate fluctuates all day long.
NTCXF's fair value bid is $.67 X 1.0130 = $.67871
NTCXF's fair value ask is $.71 X 1.0130 = $.71923
I point this out because sometimes NTCXF will show a price far apart from the NXT.V price.
JB
List of end of the year price predictions:
.87 - Teezo
.95 - 350z
1.12 - JB3729
1.22 - MrC
1.32 - doughering
1.40 - MRPANCAKE
1.45 - kungfu1
1.55 - Gold 55
1.60 - rkt9
1.80 - donfig47
1.90 - mikelift
2.00 - impar
2.30 - alj14
3.58 - domasselin
Good Luck,
JB
kungfu1, I'll try to answer that.
kungfu1, thanks for your input.
The length of the letter was a concern of mine also. I just couldn't find anything in it that I wanted to remove. Hopefully, people that don't already know the content, will find all of the information helpful and won't feel bogged down by it.
JB
dom, I think I understand why Natcore can't forecast future orders at this time.
I was surprised with the fact that they are (supposedly) clueless about the demand in China but I think that it will be a killer. The fact that they engineered (probably a requirement proposed by the Chinese themselves) the Box to be able to add or remove components (that can be replaced by low-cost labour) is going to allow the Chinese to do what they do best. As long as they keep buying chemicals to make them run, it will be good. Once they figured how to build it as cost effective as they need it, they'll flood the market with these Box!
Looking forward to get more info on Natcore Asia!
Natcore has a few things they have to accomplish in order to create demand.
MX Solar and Phono Solar will be giving Natcore valuable input towards the final design of the industrial version of the AR-Box. Hopefully, Natcore will have settled on the final design by the end of September.
Natcore has to produce some black silicon cell samples in their lab and test them.
Natcore has to produce 1,000's of sample black silicon cells and send them to pv panel manufacturers who will run tests on them.
Microtech has to fabricate the industrial version AR-Boxes. After testing, these will be shipped to at least 2 locations, TLNZ Solar and the JV partner.
The TLNZ Solar AR-Box has to be integrated into a production line successfully.
After accomplishing all of this, Natcore will have a proven product to sell and demand should follow. With Natcore working closely with MX and Phono, these 2 companies may buy before all of the above steps are completed. Natcore expects revenue before the end of the year. So, let's hope that the above accomplishments are completed by the end of the year.
JB
Great article dom!
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/471998-domasselin/213559-chinese-solar-success-fueled-by-american-innovation-the-natcore-technology-story
I encourage everyone to view dom's blog and click follow. If I'm not mistaken, enough followers will pave the way for dom's blog piece to be published in the Seeking Alpha emails that are sent to people that have signed up. I am one that had signed up for these emails long ago.
Thanks for getting the word out,
JB
I have already received a reply from Tom Scarpa to a second draft of the "Extolling The Attributes Of Natcore Technology"letter. Thanks to board posters for your imput. Here's the reply and the letter (for some reason I am able to post the whole letter this time):
Good Morning board,
In an effort to get the word out I wrote a letter entitled "Extolling the attributes of Natcore Technology" and emailed it to Natcore for comments. I'll try to get the letter into Chairman Brien Lundin's hands. Brien has vast experience writing up companies in his newsletters.
I plan to email the final draft of this letter to Venture Capital Funds, institutional investors, micro-cap mutual funds, clean energy authors and funds, and anyone else I, or you, can think of.
I'd like to get as many comments on this letter as possible before the final copy is drafted. The letter is too long to post. If interested in recieving a copy, please private message me your email address.
Thanks,
JB
Yeah futr, it's sad.
How far does this Waxman guy have his head up his butt? Doesn't he know that the leadership position is long gone?
Current list of year end price pridictions.
kungfu1,
MRPANCAKE predicted $1.40 a few minutes before your prediction. To keep a 5 cents spread between predictions, in order to give early predictors a chance to win, you'll have to move your price.
Thanks,
JB
dom,
IMO, your $3.58 price per share by year end isn't out of the question for all the reasons you stated. I would add that a take over offer from Phono Solar is a real possibility. At the AGM, Natcore told us that Phono had offered to fund all of Natcore's needs. Tom Scarpa recently replied to my funding question by stating that Phono has backed off from their exclusivity demand. Therefore, Phono has wanted Natcore's technology all for themselves, and, no doubt still does, and Natcore has said no.
I think that having black silicon samples in their hands and a tandem cell technology advancement (whenever it comes) may strengthen Phono's resolve.
There are two things we can be pretty sure of. Phono is struggling right now in the midst of the current solar environment, and Phono would like to be the world's dominant pv panel provider. In order to turn their business around and become the dominant player, Phono needs to develop, or purchase, the best technology (same goes for the other pv manufactuers).
Phono's parent had $15 billion in revenue last year. Puchasing Natcore is not a problem for them. I don't think that a buy out could be done unless Natcore's founders and the board of directors were in favor of it. At what price would a buy out offer gain their support?
Here's my view of what Phono (or others) likely gain by purchasing Natcore ..
1) All of Natcore's LPD applications that are outside of solar.
2) The silicon cell AR-coating process that Natcore is currently rolling out.
3) The huge end market for roofs, that can't support the weight of pv panels, coming from Natcore's expected best of breed roll-to-roll product.
4) The exclusive, unlimited demand for tandem cell panels in a market that will absolutely explode upon the anticipated tandem cell roll out. The tandem cell panels could cut land use by 50%, cut the installation costs by nearly 50%, cut panel maintenance costs by nearly 50%, cut shipping costs by 50%, cut future recycling costs by 50%, cut silicon usage in the panels by 60%, and on and on. If Phono just settled for the extra $100 per panel revenue, that Natcore has forecast for themselves, I think they would have at least an edditional $50 per panel of profit. 4 million tandem cell panels X $50 of extra profit = $200 million. 4 million tandem cell panels at 500 watts per panel = 2 billion watts = 2 gigawatts. So, 2 GW of tandem cell sales would give Phono $200 million of additional profits.
A $200 million purchase of Natcore (not saying this is fair) would equate to roughly $5.00 per share. Also, I'm not saying that Natcore's founders and board would accept $5.00 a share. Just speculating here. Natcore would have to announce a buy out offer, even if they turned it down.
A company trying to buy Natcore, before it's technology is fully developed and others are using it, makes the most sense to me. So far Natcore has done what they said they were going to do.
Comments anyone?
JB
Update from my communications with Tom Scarpa last week.
Chuck Provini, Dr. Barron, and either Dr. Flood or Brien Lunden, are traveling to Italy within the next 2 weeks to meet with MX Solar. Tom Scarpa said Natcore is very confident of a sale of an AR-Box to them.
Phono Solar's CEO and CTO arrive in the states on 9/25. They will be visiting Rice U. and Natcore's lab in Rochester. Tom said that Natcore is adding black silicon etching equipment to their lab AR-Box before that date. Tom also said that Natcore plans to have AR-coated, passivated black silicon wafer samples completed before the Chinese arrive. Natcore may have an advancement in the tandem cell technology to show to the Chinese when they visit Rice U.
Tom said that Natcore has received a great deal of interest regarding the AR-Box. He said the important thing now is to get the wafer samples out to the pv fabricators and get an AR-Box production line up and running.
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The last five months of share price action has been disappointing for us longs. Let's have a little fun with an end of the year share price contest. Post Natcore's Friday, 12/30 closing price by the end of the trading day this coming Friday, 9/2, if you want to participate. All entries must be at least 5 cents away from previous entries. The winner will have won bragging rights.
I'll start things off with a prediction of $1.12. Yes, I'm optimistic that we'll see many good things happen by the end of the year.
Good Luck,
JB
I see that dom. It looks like the lab generated, record efficiency has pretty much hit a wall. Since 1990, it's only moved to 25% from 23%. The world needs Natcore's tandem cell.
I called Tom Scarpa 2 weeks ago asking if we could get an update on the tandem cell. I called him again last week, he said that Dr. Barron had not answered his email yet. I asked Tom if he would tell Dr. Barron to hurry up and win a Nobel Prize for the development of the tandem cell. Tom laughed, and said he would tell Dr. Barron that a shareholder wants him to hurry up and win a Nobel Prize. lol
I'm going to call Tom again today.
Asian feed-in tarrifs could be global tipping point for renewables
http://www.pennenergy.com/index/power/display/0451528633/articles/pennenergy/power/renewable/2011/august/asian-feed-in_tarrifs.html?cmpid=EnlDailyPowerAugust242011
JB
Good article dom. However, the chart is showing world record pv cell efficiency achieved in the lab. Some might think that these efficiencies are present in mass manufacturing.
OT: I didn't realize that this was the reason I became an assistant moderator. LOL
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=66422657
JB
kungfu1, Natcore's last PR stated that the final testing on the AR-Box will be completed on September 9th. The samples should go out shortly after that.
From my AGM notes ...
500 MW of California Solar Shifts from CSP to PV
I have been concerned with regards to CSP taking a large share of the utility-scale solar market. This is very good news!
dom, China rules by edict. Considering that overnight, they banned the scooters that were puffing exhaust smoke, I think it's possible, once Natcore's technology is proven in production lines.
Check out this interview starting at 18:30 for the edict ...
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11323
I agree 100% domasselin.
Now that Natcore has their own lab, we should see them branching out into new LPD applications before too long. Especially, with the tandem cell research being conducted at Rice U., and the fact that the lab AR-Box is not used for the roll-to-roll research.
Welcome to the board nashville! Interesting response from MicroTech.
I am more or less reading between the lines regarding MX S.p.A. purchasing an AR-Box(s). Don't have a clue if a deal would go beyond that.
JB
I have a feeling that a deal with MX S.p.A. will be announced soon.
MX S.p.A. was in the US last week. Chuck, Dennis Flood and Andy Barron are going to Italy soon. I don't think that all three of them would be going if a deal wasn't already a done deal.
I have very high expectations for Natcore as well.