dom,
IMO, your $3.58 price per share by year end isn't out of the question for all the reasons you stated. I would add that a take over offer from Phono Solar is a real possibility. At the AGM, Natcore told us that Phono had offered to fund all of Natcore's needs. Tom Scarpa recently replied to my funding question by stating that Phono has backed off from their exclusivity demand. Therefore, Phono has wanted Natcore's technology all for themselves, and, no doubt still does, and Natcore has said no.
I think that having black silicon samples in their hands and a tandem cell technology advancement (whenever it comes) may strengthen Phono's resolve.
There are two things we can be pretty sure of. Phono is struggling right now in the midst of the current solar environment, and Phono would like to be the world's dominant pv panel provider. In order to turn their business around and become the dominant player, Phono needs to develop, or purchase, the best technology (same goes for the other pv manufactuers).
Phono's parent had $15 billion in revenue last year. Puchasing Natcore is not a problem for them. I don't think that a buy out could be done unless Natcore's founders and the board of directors were in favor of it. At what price would a buy out offer gain their support?
Here's my view of what Phono (or others) likely gain by purchasing Natcore ..
1) All of Natcore's LPD applications that are outside of solar.
2) The silicon cell AR-coating process that Natcore is currently rolling out.
3) The huge end market for roofs, that can't support the weight of pv panels, coming from Natcore's expected best of breed roll-to-roll product.
4) The exclusive, unlimited demand for tandem cell panels in a market that will absolutely explode upon the anticipated tandem cell roll out. The tandem cell panels could cut land use by 50%, cut the installation costs by nearly 50%, cut panel maintenance costs by nearly 50%, cut shipping costs by 50%, cut future recycling costs by 50%, cut silicon usage in the panels by 60%, and on and on. If Phono just settled for the extra $100 per panel revenue, that Natcore has forecast for themselves, I think they would have at least an edditional $50 per panel of profit. 4 million tandem cell panels X $50 of extra profit = $200 million. 4 million tandem cell panels at 500 watts per panel = 2 billion watts = 2 gigawatts. So, 2 GW of tandem cell sales would give Phono $200 million of additional profits.
A $200 million purchase of Natcore (not saying this is fair) would equate to roughly $5.00 per share. Also, I'm not saying that Natcore's founders and board would accept $5.00 a share. Just speculating here. Natcore would have to announce a buy out offer, even if they turned it down.
A company trying to buy Natcore, before it's technology is fully developed and others are using it, makes the most sense to me. So far Natcore has done what they said they were going to do.
Comments anyone?
JB
70MW Solar Installation in Italy
