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I believe the market will crash one week after Congress reconvenes. People will lose confidence and start transfering money out of 401k's and that causes problems for firm leverage. Domino effect which grows exponentially. To me the safest low will be 1st week of September. False front week. People will be on edge, but wait for the Feds to make a move. Feds are stalemated, they can't even get the US out of Sequestration. Nothing is done about the low % interest rate, they try to kick the can, but it's against the wall. JC Penny Chap 11, Detroit Chap 11-100, more city's Like Delaware to follow, Apple takes a hit, over condo building drives prices down and GC's can't meet the borrow or break even, market flooded with property again and Senator Corker and his new F&F revamp is throw into the gallows. I see Wallmart purchases as the canary in the mine. Forget about the Hindenberg effect, the reality is look out the side car window as you drive. Wat's going up? Banks, BJ's and Condos. Doesn't take a genious to see that we have a brick wall ahead. It hits this fall and for the same reason it did in the beginning the Federal Government. They caused the first crisis and they will cause the next one.
I don't have a crystal ball short term. Mid term I have a stat and long term I have common sense.
Short: Climb continues over fear of Feds stimulus program which stays in place because housing recovery isn't all that great, only certain sectors and demographics are doing well.
Mid: Congress is a mess and the US People need to do something fast or we will suffer and anarchy will arise before resolutions. China is trying to take the World off of US currency and that is a bad thing. It will create borrowing issues for the US mid term. Lots of civil stuff as we know it will be compromised like 20-25 dollars for a gallon of milk. Gold will be at its peak, 6000 dollars. 4x in relation to the dollar devaluation of a typical commodity like dairy or oil as I just showed. China has been buying Gold. China wants the World back on Gold as a currency, because it is limited and they already have a lot. You see the trillion they want to spend? Backed by gold.
Long term: After this market correction which will be worse than the last. See history. Banks will close. There will be some protests worse than Occupy Wallstreet, businesses will close, mail will be delivered once a week and by part time Fed employees, gold will be restricted, the US will be broke and we will end up in 1. war with China because China will not need us as consumers anymore (China presses Canada to reject US dollars that is the Cuba effect), or 2. the US threatens like a spoil child to floor the World with oil and that causes the Arabs to tell the Chinese they are forced to continue with the way things were or at least in part. Anyway you cut it, our life quality goes down 40-50%. forget about sending our kids to college here. Better learn Spanish or Portuguese and fast. People will not forget and even as things improve 20 years down the line with energy as the new US business to boost the economy anyway, gold will be always bought as a safety net. Kind of like the way grandma used to clean the chicken bones and save the elastic bands and be real cheap because she knew what it was ike to stand in the bread line in 1929.
Three ways to take advantage of this bubble. 1. I am doing ETF's for the quick short 100% cash out. 2. Gold stocks which will take a hit and drop with everything else then climb faster than anything else (look at the 2008 crash Sept., Etf's Mountain, Gold stocks, Valley. Understand? 3. Buy some silver brick at least 5-10k of it now while its cheap and hide it in your house or somewhere else where no one knows except you and your neighbor can't find it with a metal detector. Now am I talking like it's the end of the World? No. This will blow over, but there will be a tough 5-8 yrs ahead of us and if you plan it right you can come out wealthier than when you went in. By the time people will have this figured out, it's too late. My aunt told me about the day when she went to the bank and it was closed due to the feds taking everyones money. I recommend hiding it from them or converting it....because the US Feds only care about their own survival, you and I are nothing. And many wars post North Korea are BS and my uncles died for BS. And I served for BS. Understand?
This whole gold thing and the US crash is a nice story and gold will climb but let me tell you the reality of the story's end. You see the US is sitting on the largest deposits of oil in the World. Shale oil and liquid non shale. Enough to support the entire Global economy at the current rate of growth for the next 500 years !!!! Yes. I know this because I worked as a chemist for an energy company years ago.
So, the US will flip the bird to the World, give discretion to the US major oil barons, open the taps and crash the World commodities market thus boosting the US competitiveness for establishing oil as the hedge for forcing China to play fair. If they don't the US can floor the World markets and drive the the Yuan, the Peso, the Frank all of them like you will not believe.
Last resort dirty pool? You bet. Guess why Japan attacked us last time? TADA !!! You better believe the ace is in the hole. So this whole World conspiracy thing is going to backfire and backfire big.
The next Kuwait stretches from Maine to Carolina, Alaska to Kansas and Ohio to Kentucky. Seriously, it's that BIG. All of our kids and their grandchildren will be working in the energy sector...watch.
This is just a flavor, it is the same from 2010 to 2013
Look at July 24, 2013. Same price next day July 25 2013. 3 Million plus shares traded.
BAA was in the middle of the bug gold run of 2011. Spike days often followed with sell off days.
BAA may spike Monday above 10% but it will settle low.,,,if you're lucky. It may break even or it may even sell off some.
The majority shareholders have owned this for 8 years and the statistics on my excel say the chance of it repeating 10-11% are 3%. That is almost slam dunk! Then add to that many of the prime Golds were supressed today like Barrick, and I Am Gold or Allied Nevada and I truly believe the paradigm shift in investment will focus on these next week. BAA will have it's pops, but no way they do the 10% climb day after day...and if they do sweet. I got a 100,000 shares and need more $$$ to buy more ETF's before the big crash.
Aug 23, 2013 0.91 1.13 0.91 1.01 2,727,300 1.01
Aug 22, 2013 0.92 0.96 0.88 0.92 441,000 0.92
Aug 21, 2013 0.94 0.94 0.86 0.92 586,400 0.92
Aug 20, 2013 0.93 0.97 0.91 0.92 589,700 0.92
Aug 19, 2013 0.95 0.98 0.94 0.97 544,200 0.97
Aug 16, 2013 1.03 1.03 0.92 0.94 1,128,000 0.94
Aug 15, 2013 0.93 1.02 0.90 0.99 1,162,000 0.99
Aug 14, 2013 0.87 0.95 0.87 0.94 744,100 0.94
Aug 13, 2013 0.86 0.88 0.81 0.86 655,500 0.86
Aug 12, 2013 0.86 0.92 0.84 0.85 797,900 0.85
Aug 9, 2013 0.86 0.86 0.80 0.82 565,900 0.82
Aug 8, 2013 0.77 0.87 0.77 0.83 788,800 0.83
Aug 7, 2013 0.80 0.82 0.77 0.77 556,500 0.77
Aug 6, 2013 0.81 0.84 0.79 0.80 602,000 0.80
Aug 5, 2013 0.84 0.98 0.83 0.83 369,700 0.83
Aug 2, 2013 0.88 0.91 0.83 0.83 841,600 0.83
Aug 1, 2013 0.94 0.95 0.88 0.89 675,600 0.89
Jul 31, 2013 0.96 0.97 0.90 0.93 885,800 0.93
Jul 30, 2013 1.07 1.07 0.96 0.97 1,369,400 0.97
Jul 29, 2013 1.04 1.09 1.02 1.05 1,321,800 1.05
Jul 26, 2013 1.07 1.08 0.97 1.02 1,373,500 1.02
Jul 25, 2013 1.03 1.12 1.03 1.04 973,500 1.04
Jul 24, 2013 1.00 1.19 0.98 1.04 3,861,400 1.04
Jul 23, 2013 0.85 1.00 0.82 0.98 1,960,800 0.98
Jul 22, 2013 0.81 0.85 0.77 0.84 951,300 0.84
Jul 19, 2013 0.76 0.79 0.73 0.75 440,700 0.75
Jul 19, 2011 4.10 4.18 4.00 4.13 172,600 4.13
Jul 18, 2011 3.98 4.12 3.96 4.10 314,900 4.10
Jul 15, 2011 4.04 4.04 3.88 3.97 90,500 3.97
Jul 14, 2011 4.18 4.20 3.92 3.94 171,300 3.94
Jul 13, 2011 4.02 4.26 3.99 4.10 274,900 4.10
Jul 12, 2011 3.76 4.00 3.72 3.98 169,600 3.98
Jul 11, 2011 3.85 3.91 3.69 3.80 89,300 3.80
Jul 8, 2011 3.96 3.99 3.79 3.83 127,000 3.83
Jul 7, 2011 4.07 4.12 3.92 3.97 177,400 3.97
Jul 6, 2011 4.11 4.18 3.91 4.07 268,400 4.07
Jul 5, 2011 3.76 4.10 3.76 4.02 306,600 4.02
Jul 1, 2011 3.80 3.82 3.65 3.78 57,000 3.78
Jun 30, 2011 3.78 3.81 3.52 3.81 328,700 3.81
Jun 29, 2011 3.41 3.83 3.41 3.83 374,500 3.83
Jun 28, 2011 3.43 3.44 3.27 3.38 131,600 3.38
Jun 27, 2011 3.42 3.47 3.38 3.40 70,500 3.40
Jun 24, 2011 3.54 3.54 3.41 3.48 97,500 3.48
Jun 23, 2011 3.47 3.58 3.29 3.53 226,300 3.53
Jun 22, 2011 3.41 3.63 3.41 3.60 196,000 3.60
Jun 21, 2011 3.21 3.43 3.20 3.38 133,600 3.38
Jun 20, 2011 3.14 3.22 3.11 3.16 139,800 3.16
Jun 17, 2011 3.21 3.25 3.07 3.13 171,200 3.13
Jun 16, 2011 3.25 3.35 3.10 3.13 207,600 3.13
Jun 15, 2011 3.33 3.39 3.20 3.26 183,600 3.26
Jun 14, 2011 3.49 3.51 3.33 3.37 265,400 3.37
Jun 13, 2011 3.33 3.60 3.33 3.44 215,300 3.44
Jun 10, 2011 3.36 3.42 3.30 3.37 154,600 3.37
Jun 9, 2011 3.28 3.42 3.28 3.31 116,100 3.31
Jun 8, 2011 3.29 3.36 3.26 3.28 192,900 3.28
Jun 7, 2011 3.40 3.41 3.28 3.29 99,700 3.29
Jun 6, 2011 3.40 3.50 3.30 3.31 140,800 3.31
Jun 3, 2011 3.47 3.51 3.40 3.42 153,600 3.42
Jun 2, 2011 3.62 3.68 3.39 3.51 134,900 3.51
Jun 1, 2011 3.71 3.83 3.63 3.70 274,800 3.70
May 31, 2011 3.43 3.81 3.43 3.79 1,163,700 3.79
May 27, 2011 3.35 3.37 3.27 3.35 197,300 3.35
May 26, 2011 3.33 3.35 3.20 3.32 164,900 3.32
May 25, 2011 3.39 3.45 3.33 3.36 169,600 3.36
May 24, 2011 3.49 3.49 3.21 3.39 154,000 3.39
May 23, 2011 3.26 3.31 3.19 3.28 68,800 3.28
QUESTION: ETF's I noticed were trading around 200 dollars PPS prior to the 2008 crash, then they zoomed up to around 400-500 dollars. Now I see them around 17-40 dollars. In 2008 it seemed like they all doubled their PPS or a little more 100% profit. Why did the ETF's go down to such lows now and if there is another crash could they go back to 400-500 dollars PPS? again? Can the feds halt them like they did with most short trading>?
QUESTION: ETF's I noticed were trading around 200 dollars PPS prior to the 2008 crash, then they zoomed up to around 400-500 dollars. Now I see them around 17-40 dollars. In 2008 it seemed like they all doubled their PPS or a little more 100% profit. Why did the ETF's go down to such lows now and if there is another crash could they go back to 400-500 dollars PPS? again? Can the feds halt them like they did with most short trading>?
Anything you say Sparky! LOL!!!
I think it will be green again Monday, maybe a 3-5% gain, but I highly doubt another 10-11% day., unless gold goes up big time as in 1450 - 1500 then all gold stocks take off even the OTC's.
All the traders are going to jump on IAG and AVN. Both supressed and gutted and only small 5% gains today so one of those should see a 25% gain day, which one will be interesting...dollar jump. IMO
Yeah we know, Bash one day, Pump the Next...It's been a great stock all along. For those just realizing it.... DUHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!
Be wary of The Street. They have a habit of rewarding shorts..
Keep reading that garbage, you will make a lot of money. LOL!
ANV,, ALLIED NEVADA...Gutted 40-4 over a simple process fix (which costed money and time) and now the process is UP and Running...
PR is going to be the next Grand Cayman thanks to Congress.
IN PR you can do that too and you can do it with an IRA TAX FREE again,,,,,,TADA !!!! I know this stuff cold. I do it for a living...
It will hit .84. A few more dips in the works.. I own BAA but I can see the short positions so sorry to bust your bubble but look.
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=baa&submit=Short+Quote%99
That's been going on in Portugal for 40 yrs, where have you been? Better yet, buy in Puerto Rico, stay 6 months a year (established yourself as a resident) and pay NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX !!! Yeahhhhhhh,,, it's true... Oh, and the plane flight is shorter, no property tax and property is appreciating there like crazy,,,and who doesn't like the Caribbean ?
Sorry, buy 85% institutional owned means easy manip. It will dip...
ANV... ALLIED NEVADA
You sound like a Christian salesman. I like Banro, but it is not the biggest boy on the football field, that award goes to THM; trouble with THM is it hasn't dug gold for profit yet. And as far as an easy bounce up stock from a low, you can not ignore AVN, even the bashing media is struggling to find ways to please the short MM's and it get's worse by the day. AVN will easily spoing up first...Banro will follow later. You are looking at mid to late Sept., then taper off in Oct and then a climb again through spring.
Capitulation. LOL! I love that word...sounds like a porn movie.
Yeah, I like that figure and I think THM will do the .57/.58 thing as well...
I smell litigations, I wonder who the lucky foiyme is!?!?
Sure will., but i don't think a slowly dropping DOW would do it., it would have to be a large drop. I think .83 or .84 is very doable from now until Mid Sept.
IMO
Pay Attention to ANV. Something is going on.. It's been rising steady as of late...
No. It will drop again a few more times.. before it fully consolidates. Mid .80's most likely... I like it to be around $3.00 by end of Q4. ANV seems to be the one with real legs right now, and still climbing. They made money last year and are on pace to make more this year. This whole political Congo thing about BAA is what is killing it. GG also has mines in the Cogo but I think people are less skeptical because GG has mines everywhere else as well. All the eggs are in one basket for BAA. High risk.
ANV will Bounce Back to mid 20's: The gut came from Gold Shorts which accelerated a selloff
past the fair selloff point value which was around $10.00. This is almost 100% less than where it should be right now.
THm had a range from .36 cents to $3.35 dollars in the last year while VTR was 58 to 84 dollars.
THM was up 900% and VTR was up 25%.
I'll take the 900%.
Don't ever trust the Chinese, they have a bad business reputation...especially in commodities.
RBKisMyAs< what's your target for THM? Mine is below .55 before I buy.
Don't fall for the BS pump at the end of the day...it was the MM's selling and buying their own shares of a few hundred to lure you in...wait until it's low .80s' or lower before you buy.
I believe it will test mid low 80's. a few more times, consolidate then go higher.
Better get in on THM soon as well, once it hits .50's.
Hold Your Shares, the SCUM will try to pry it from your hands.... Gold is cyclical. It's also oversold. You made a great investment. Don't be shamboozled by Wallstreet.
All of that is contingent of course on ETF's. We have a crash it wil. not matter
I Believe It's Massive Manipulation by JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs. I think they drive it down a bit more before labor day and then pump it just before Congress returns on the 9th and as they fight and squabble JP and Goldman make a killing driving the price up above 1500, then they short the Hell out of it and wash rinse repeat....
Greece became is what America is turning into and most of Europe is already. Go to Europe, see the ghost towns, everybody left. Nothing like it was in 70's when i was a kid and used to live there summers...
Agreed, I'll see you in the bread line. Make sure you cash out your riches and move the money to an Argentina Bank. They are paying 13 1/2 %. You know like Americans used to get when we had a country.
You know I was thinking why BAA is not moving up so fast and I believe it is because 85% is owned by institutional investors. That's good and bad. Short term bad, and long term good. I believe by having such a high percentage of Inst. investors you reduce the stocks volatility. I think that is why it scored pretty good on Yahoo's beta. If Gold goes up it will rise steady. If you compare it to THM, you will see Inst holders are 45% which is almost half. Ever notice how volatile THM can be and with a BEta of .91 that support the logic. I hope. You can make money on THM by buying low and selling high on the saw tooth. BAA is more of a building wave. Look at the graphs, you will see what i mean. I really believe the only way you can see more volatility in BAA is if the corp released more shares which initially pushes the price down but also enables more laymen with trading and % leverage and I think that is why BAA climbed after they issued shares last time. Once they got bought up by the MM's, now it's back to dink and dunk of the remaining shares held by shmucks like you and I. Oh, BAA will eventually go 10x in value after Nemoya delivers, but they may issue shares before then and we may see another dip first before the serious blast off. Anyway, BAA is sitting on the highest grade gold and a lot of it, and that is as sweet as it gets. Wait until people get tired of Barrick, I AM Gold and Allied and look for that junior gold stock. I bet they pile on to BAA! No, I am sure they will pile onto BAA! It's too freaken good to pass up ! No way they pass it up. No way.