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More technical observations: October 21 was the low of this current rally. Have 5 distinct waves where this is the 5th wave here. Fibonacci number 21 suggest we could have a truncated 5th on the 21st week of this drive up. Around 3/18. I suspect ONLY a correction would be seen then but it seems likely a break of some sort will occur there. Since most crashes happen in October or July I put small chance of a crash in March.
Bitcoin has hit the spike move of the past 2 times and quicky dropped back. 3/18 area also seems right for a correction in bitcoin.
But this is only a possible break point and as in the past these points are only consolidation resistance for a brief period. I don't have any predictability on strength of next reversal.
For now, we are on a smooth trajectory with little disruptions even in an intra-day basis. I suspect we would need to see some rather dramatic moves with equal dramatic recoveries before the real drop occurs.
Shiller P/E on SP500 is 34.45 today. It has only ONCE exceeded this number. No not the 1929 crash but rather the 1998 to 1999 spike move before the big crash.
It took a year to peak and crash from these numbers. Will this be the same? No idea other than the fact we are in bubble territory. BUT "NOT" according to Citibank. They just acknowledged the unprecedented move we are having and declared we are good to go! GREEN LIGHT! All steam ahead. In early February of 2020 they were mostly BULLISH on stocks. Want to know the similarity between now and then?
In the six months leading up to February 19, 2020, the S&P 500 had surged by 15.8%, reaching a series of new all-time highs.
Fast forward to today: Over the past six months, the index has climbed 15.9%, consistently setting new records.
I sure hope this doesn't result in the same setup going forward. Actually, only a major external event or real dramatic signs of inflation spiking back up should cause such a crash.
BITCOIN hit the last 2 peaks. Is the 3rd time the charm? In those last 2 it dropped big time. So lest recap: P/E ratios insane, expectations soaring, inflation still considered dead as they await the next rate cut this year. No one seems to consider that a 40-year inflation cycle that is known and used by Buffet himself is about to take off. ALL conclude this time is different and it is impossible for inflation to come back based on the new paradigm in this economy. The disparity between the few super rich owning the large percentage of this country's wealth is a non-issue. Debt by government and individuals is also a non-issue as long as disinflation remains.
Why I consider a crash here unlikely. Seasonality. Usually in October or July is when we have nasty turnarounds.
Just when you thought the world couldn't get more insane, more immoral, more self-destructive we have the Stupreme Court actually hearing a case that should have been thrown out on its meritless claims. They have SEALED OUR FATE and theirs. They have guaranteed TRUMP will NEVER be prosecuted before his crowning moment.
I told you they were gutless cowards but now we can add purposeful intent to delay the trials, so they never happen. This is an evil fanatical court deciding how the nation should behave based on their ideology and don't even pretend to connect it to the constitutional law. Seems once they hear the case the ruling will become moot, and they know it! They ran out the clock for Trump.
This world is living in a fantasy where devastating global environmental pollution is acceptable with no thought of tomorrow. Where the whole American Legal system can be bent to the will of a dictator. Where the three branches of government can go haywire with no backstop.
We have guaranteed the worse possible fate and with it the most dire of consequences. I would cheer for another Great Depression instead of what is in store. You still don't get it. You still think I myself am off the rails and need help. Problem with that sane argument is that "I" predicted this current insanity BEFORE we had 2 impeachments, 91 counts of criminal charges, a dictator promising to align with the evil axis, destroy his enemies and dismantle all safeguards and institutions that doesn;t bend to his will.
AND the Wall Street Analysts and market actually see nothing wrong ahead? No, they see GREAT THINGS!
And here I sit being labeled a nut case when the world has gone completely crazy. If anyone DARE write down just the facts and how TRUMP gets canonized for his evil acts without cringing, I can declare you a true believer in the antichrist.
BTW, the PCE data point should give the market a slight pause. It should not be very good. If on the off chance it is, we shoot even higher steeper and longer than anyone thought possible.
Bitcoin now at the last 2 blowoff tops. I suspect it breaks the old spike highs since this sucker is one for the record books. Market move is in a sweet spot where a New Paradigm message is resonating load and clear. Giddy is the word i would use. All this says is that we are very extended but not if we are near a top yet. Every measure of past performances begs for a dramatic drop to wipe some of the optimism. The ONLY thing i can see causing it would be INFLATION data that has verifiable legs. Not there yet. PCE early tomorrow might exceed their expectations but that is for January, a month that already showed inflation strength. One month data isn't enough. It might cause a temporary drop but that's all she wrote.
What a 4 to 5 month run! Like the insane stance on TRUMP. The amount of lazy verification to disprove all the negative actions against TRUMP means we as a nation are fat, lazy, and love to blame everyone else for our own mess. In Germany they had decades of hard times before they embraced Hitler. What is our excuse?
Perhaps we actually have the top of the market hit at inauguration time. Crazy world. I dare anyone to list the attributes of an Antichrist without conceding Trump has them all beat. WOW! A world set on punishing itself.
NY Fed chair just announced there will be a rate cut in 2024. Called the recent blip in inflation insignificant. Glad they know the future with such certainty. If true we spike much much much higher. Sky s not the limit.
What can possibly go wrong? I suggest they stop posting economic data showing once we already know what will happen. Like the mass analytical conclusion that a silly pandemic will not disrupt our economy or profits. Once the street realized they will create the biggest debt increase in a short period it was all cheer. You see it never matters how much debt is out there as long as disinflation is with us.
Me I called for inflation before we got the spike and have insisted ever since we have shifted to a 40 year cycle of recession inflation. Granted we can’t survive another 40 year cycle so we crash and truncate it instead. .
NY Fed chair just announced there will be a rate cut in 2024. Called the recent blip in inflation insignificant. Glad they know the future with such certainty. If true we spike much much much higher. Sky s not the limit.
What can possibly go wrong? I suggest they stop posting economic data showing once we already know what will happen. Like the mass analytical conclusion that a silly pandemic will not disrupt our economy or profits. Once the street realized they will create the biggest debt increase in a short period it was all cheer. You see it never matters how much debt is out there as long as disinflation is with us.
Me I called for inflation before we got the spike and have insisted ever since we have shifted to a 40 year cycle of recession inflation. Granted we can’t survive another 40 year cycle so we crash and truncate it instead. .
SMOOTH SAILING! We have nothing between now and Thursday of next week to cause any derailment. In fact it should stay on the same trajectory.
I suspect the data will show stubborn and even higher costs while manufacturing data shows a strong improvement solidifying the fact that we are in a heated economy even as big-ticket items stay muted.
China finally getting its act together. That will create a double bump in taming inflation. I had thought China would already be contributing but better late than never.
Shiller SP500 is already above a 37 times P/E ratio exceeding even the 1929 peak of 31.
Like anything presented to this nation we seem to close out disasters and focus on a dream scenario. The combination of disasters will put a massive stop to the economy and the worlds to boot. The next greater depression should be recognized only 3 to 6 months AFTER a crash. We will assume it is a great opportunity to buy into the market and ONLY hard data in hindsight will cause a fatalistic response.
For now we are in the last blowoff stage. Since we ignored a 100-year Pandemic with all the science behind it and likewise the anti-Christ persona and finally an environment about to unleash its wrath. Let's not forget the universal assumption that it is impossible for inflation to heat up because we have developed a new paradigm where disinflation is guaranteed.
Market path: We seem to be on auto pilot till late next week and most likely any disruption will quickly be taken up till middle of March. It should be a significant top with some fast wild steep drops. Should not however we straight down. That should happen in either JULY or October. History places these months where major turning points occur.
This market should SAIL on calm waters and clear skies till Thursday at the earliest. The PCE price and Manufacturing data should start the sobering process. But I don't expect much reaction on the downside. We are in the boiler room stock tips era where economists are debating just how great this market will get.
I expect all measures of absurdity to top the 1929 peak by a wide margin. No one talks about debt anymore since a 40-year disinflation has prevented total disaster and is expected to continue. Disparity economically is already off the charts much higher than any time in the past by a large margin. The number of people in that mega wealthy group is still on average about where it was for a generation but their wealth factor capturing the bulk of the wealth once again exceeded anything ever seen before.
Think about this for a moment: We shrug off Trumps next presidency assuming he will make profits for corporations and the wealthy. They dismiss his lies, hate, bigotry, revenge motives, extortion, sedition, refusal to accept any responsibility with no contrition ever. The populace embraces him like a god. The dire warnings over global warning have already been seen as a costly mess and the voter wants to accelerate this disaster. He can be fined a trillion dollars, and they will pay for it thru a go fund me page. He can go on stage and rape a 13-year-old child all the time boasting, and the crowd will cheer him on. We shrug off the state/federal ruling stripping woman, gays, and ability to control your own body. Strip away black and minority rights that just want an even playing field. There is a frenzy of legal actions that would take us to a religious state no different than IRAN! Think this is hyperbole, think again.
ALL absurdities are converging into one big happy mass. The angry white man is a power released and they know it is their last stand. The easily duped masses can be manipulated just by promising they too can feel superior to others in their sphere of influence. Greed, legally discharging vented hate, and a promise to rid ourselves of OTHERS is so powerful that even rape is a free pass from the evangelic.
This MARKET is on F_I_R_E !!!! It will not be put out but rather burn itself up.
2024 will go down in history books. 2025 will likely go down period from the ravages of war, violence, poverty, ignorance, unrepentant sin. We should be witnessing a spectacular collapse of unimagined proportions. Not likely all in 2025 but it will be steep violent and end the year with a minimum of a 40% drop from the start of year. We will exceed on the downside SPX of 666. Not sure just how fast that occurs but I suspect something like another EVENT (Pandemic) will amplify and squeeze the timeline.
From embryos to black hair style all red states are setting an extreme ruling that places us back to the 1950's white male ruling. In other words, extreme bias, extreme throwback to a time when it was clearly understood WHITE MAN Dominance with no ability to break thru.
It is crystal clear that all progressive ruling evening the playing field will be rolled back. Back some 70 years. This as TRUMP will sweep in and deliver on his promise of total dictatorial rule. He will very quickly establish that any ruling by the Stuprteme Court will be ignored, and they have NO RECOURSE to enforce it.
This is a promise and anyone with half a brain knows this already, yet Wall Street thinks it will not affect them. Environmental disaster is already here, and the new policies will only speed up a train wreck that happens at 120 miles per hour instead of 60.
In the immediate stock market charts, we already see manufacturing levels above 50 which coincides with an economy that never experienced any real slowdown from the spike in costs. All the pundits were screaming for the FED to drop rates and rapidly to avert such a slowdown. What already happened was a huge spike in GDP of 4 percent when they saw a recession? Yet their mistake was for their financial benefit, and they refused to adjust their model to explain it away. they STILL insist a rate cut is in the works.
Call me irrational, like a known Pandemic warning, to dare assume inflation is back and with-it exposure to the seedy world of debt and how that structure will crumble without disinflation trends continuing forever.
Not a single person on any economic platform has ever even suggested the possibility it could happen. We are already dismissing even a remote possibility that inflation can come back. Let me go further, we are insisting disinflation is already back and we need desperately to lower rates NOW! How long the market can hold up, let alone spike higher, IF the FED does not answer the call. I suspect the economic data will be so glaring they will no longer wait for the FED but instead gather the cumulated data and weep over it. What that will look like in real terms is something we have not experienced since the glory days of the roaring 20's.
Yup I am calling the end just when we rose 2 percent in one day.
Figuring out the detailed daily moves for next drop is difficult but i do have a possible ending point. More precisely the earliest end point. I am assuming 10/27/23 was the start of this current wave up. We had a 2-month drive before a 4-day drop signaling the end of sub wave 1. wave 2 took 4 days and was steep enough to declare it a true sub wave. If this is wave 3 and the final one? it must be equal or larger than the 1st wave in duration. This current wave started on 1/4/24. Placing the final 3rd wave to end no earlier than 3/4/24.
NOW if the 3rd wave in March is NOT the final one that means a shallow wave 4 and yet another steep wave 5 taking no longer than 3 months to finish placing JUNE as the final TOP!
MARCH or End of JUNE! For me that's the only options left. We are in the froth stage and anyone questioning that must think the next Pandemic will be ignored also.
BITCOIN - consolidating in the 52K range. Seems like a normal consolidation. IF that is true the next jump will likely take it to the old peak highs. ASTONISHING!
That actually seems more likely now. The economic data on inflation will be delayed for another week. The FED announcement leaked out confirms their intent to lower rates before the year is out. Also astonishing considering the January report was so strong. Thier hubris in making such a claim means they can read the future based on what they see today and have no concern whatsoever on the path.
This as academics are treating every case against TRUMP as a lesson on the rule of law as the lawless defense abuses this structure. Every single instance on the 91 counts have gone in Trumps favor. There will NEVER be a verdict on criminal behavior passed down. On the off chance i am wrong Trumps team will appeal and win such appeal or delay till he is crowned dictator. I saw this years ago and now have confirmation, just like all other things directing our doom.
WHAT A CULMINATING EVENT we are seeing today! It seals the Democrats fate for next election since it is NOW obvious that such a spike ALWAYS results in a peak performance soon and a very dramatic drop after. IT MEANS WE WILL NOT SEE A 2024 bull cycle finish the year.
Here is where we are in a synchronized world cycle. I find it astonishingly precise.
1 - Environment - The masses have accepted that global warming is real but pretend it has no lasting effect on their lives or their children. The easy consensus is that science will cure all problems before it is too late. This despite the push to add more coal and oil production. This despite the urgency to spend money on alternative energy or to slow down the effect of global warming. The speed at which we will see a dramatic reversal in weather and water levels has scientists constantly revising their timeline as evidence mount. We might already be past the tipping point.
2 - Geopolitical (reflecting our personal emotional state) - US is now in another crisis period testing the resilience of our Republic. In the past we had huge rifts such as slavery, communism, fascism, hedonism. Today unlike anything we have ever experienced we have a majority of Americans eagerly voting for a man that epitomizes what the devil would look like if in charge of our country. FACHS no longer get registered as our own internal hate for the current world changes override common sense and decency.
3 - Advancement in Science - Unprecedented. The speed at which such leaps of knowledge is occurring is mind boggling. We should free ourselves of disease, extend our life by double and alter the work force with AI advancement. Freeing up our society where most all jobs will become obsolete and be handled by artificial intelligence. There would be a huge transformation from work to leisure and earning a living will become as obsolete as pensions are. A truly utopian transformation after the huge disruption during that change.
The first 2 events will likely destroy any ability to continue on the scientific path towards total freedom.
Why I even have to list these startlingly fast approaches to a final solution always gives me pause. Am I that "OFF" to see such an obvious future? The roaring 20's and prior to the Great Depression had everyone dancing in the streets, buying boiler room stocks on tips from strangers. Universal agreement that economic prosperity and nirvana was here. Economists falling over themselves declaring a new Paradigm. No one saw the obvious dangers build. In fact, the complete opposite. Like a Pandemic with accurate forecasts of its deadly path we simply pretended that wouldn't happen.
Once the fact that TRUMP and the GOP will complete their dismantling of our Republic, we will be cheering sitting in the bleachers till it collapses around us. The magnitude of emotional corruption against facts, logic, and personal moral code is unprecedented. We have exceeded the fanatical division of north/south policy the craving for a different political structure, the struggle for women, blacks, minorities to have a place in society and politics. We are actually experiencing the last great divide. the Civil War that never got settled. The fear of losing control as the dominant white Christian male is being replaced by foreigners and stripped away bias. This WAR will end very differently. it will destroy all of us.
Imagine the embarrassment that Japan and Germany had to endure after their defeat. It is no coincidence that those 2 nations have had a startling expansion of economic growth and political stability till now. They have shunned any notion of dictatorial control. They were forced to change their policy thru world shame and military mandates by the allies. We had no such restraint after the Civil War. We in power are FUMING over the trend to disband elitism.
If TRUMPS evil embrace can be approved by the evangelic with not a single phrase, verse or scripture recital along with his abhorrent ways we are a lost nation. We have dismissed rape, extortion, sedition, attempt to lead the rioters in hanging his own VP. In other words, this anti-Christ has proven his worth. We can't even see who he is.
I am constantly astonished at our ability to stand still in time from our early primitive unstructured days till today. We can always alter a hellish world by a slight change of the moral needle. We can see whatever we want and justify the most animalistic attacks by placing blame on others and distorting our importance above all others.
I feel we are so so so close to a dramatic reversal, one where we will not even understand or accept such a change till it is pounded into us repeatedly. ANY dramatic drop will be replaced by greed and a Pavlovian response these last 40 years.
TODAY MARKS the crossing of the DMZ. There will be repercussions so profound it seals our fate. It also marks the political landslide decision nine months before the voter decides.
We are seeing one of the largest longest steepest waves of the whole bull run. Euphoric final stage. I can however last for many months yet. One thing is sure 2024 will mark the
top.
This as scientists now predict the gulf stream currents can be altered as soon as 2025. This as global warming is already costing the world in lives and economic stress. This as the world is witnessing the rebirth of dictatorial control. This as greed and hate are rising at exponential levels. This as scientific advancement is unprecedented in all of history. The speed of our discoveries is matched only by the speed of our degenerative emotional release.
I find it peculiar that not many have noticed this strange correlation.
This market is already in a spike final move. It can actually get even steeper from here with no warning when the break happens. The next break however is sure to be the big start of a steep drop. The pattern we have today makes that scenario the more likely.
The Stupreme Court is now going to bottle woman into an obedient package. Now the embryo can't be touched because the state court decided it is already a child. I guess the treatment of science is back to the 12th century. Same sex marriages will be voided and criminalized.
Can YOU see that everything we are witnessing is a coordinated culmination of greed, selfish behavior, fear of losing power and most importantly realization that we can express our inner demons openly and feel true joy for the first time.
The panicked Democratic Party always relied on the TRUTH to reclaim their power but never accepted the fact that it was never about truth. It is about our inner desire to lord over others and feel good about ourselves. The moment when conscription caused a riot in the streets of NY was soon followed by those rioters realizing they can't change the power structure and instead attacked free blacks hanging them on lampposts as a consolation prize. This is where we are at.
The big anxious wait. For Nvidia and the FED Minutes. The CORRECTION is upon us. Slow and steady. Very controlled. The possibility of a steeper move tomorrow is set. The Fed minutes is assured, and I can easily predict their message. NO RATE CUTS seen. Not now or in the near future. Seems the street is pretending they don't see the same data.
as for the darling of the AI movement that one is hard to figure out. Any stumble or underestimation of their prowess will help to drive the segment fast and in doing so the rest of the market.
Will this current overdue correction be steep and short lived? Euphoria at a moment in time reminiscent of past peaks. That can result in a sudden unexpected long steep drop or more likely a slow controlled drop followed by an assumed resumption of bull run. The latter would result in a steep fast drop from the second attempt at regaining a bull path.
This long and strong historic bull run hardly sees the reversal of trend in one clean break. An assumed normal correction in this current drop is already the odds on favorite. Self fulfilling self once our bias is so strong like a pandemic denial till it can’t be denied anymore.
There isn’t an economist or analyst out there warning of a dramatic reversal from extreme optimism. That’s why the Pandemic Syndrome is more likely. That means facts and hard data will already be seen telegraphing a dramatic reversal well before the street reacts.
This fits into the current correction as an assumed opportunity to bet the upside at bargain prices totally ignoring the economic data points But those data points are just not there yet so perhaps I am just once again too early.
A united front on economic nirvana. An uncomplicated ordinary and bored consumer that sees a future that is good but is unimpressed. World changing events are either ignored or placed in a neat compartmental box with no real need for concern.
Economic political environmental and moral These 4 core categories are reaching their long paths final destination. They all are accelerating and in a steep linear path. Economic euphoria. Political train wreck. Environmental doomsday. Moral disintegration. All 4 are already at extremes. All 4 will have a simultaneous reversal of extreme magnitude.
We can live in an alternative universe where the scientific community has defined our bleak environmental future and is received with a yawn. Dictatorial control is actually embraced. Economic euphoria dismissing the other 3 categories as unaffected.
Current correction is on autopilot. It should be steeper and deeper than expected. The unanimous response to any drop is greed and opportunity to make even more money at great prices.
Is this the final top? Not sure. A double top is more likely but who knows. Every daily drop of 1 percent will be met with a big rebound till it doesn’t. That will be the TELL.
A united front on economic nirvana. An uncomplicated ordinary and bored consumer that sees a future that is good but is unimpressed. World changing events are either ignored or placed in a neat compartmental box with no real need for concern.
Economic political environmental and moral These 4 core categories are reaching their long paths final destination. They all are accelerating and in a steep linear path. Economic euphoria. Political train wreck. Environmental doomsday. Moral disintegration. All 4 are already at extremes. All 4 will have a simultaneous reversal of extreme magnitude.
We can live in an alternative universe where the scientific community has defined our bleak environmental future and is received with a yawn. Dictatorial control is actually embraced. Economic euphoria dismissing the other 3 categories as unaffected.
Current correction is on autopilot. It should be steeper and deeper than expected. The unanimous response to any drop is greed and opportunity to make even more money at great prices.
Is this the final top? Not sure. A double top is more likely but who knows. Every daily drop of 1 percent will be met with a big rebound till it doesn’t. That will be the TELL.
A have always assumed a final defining moment of dire transformation will occur. I made this prediction over a decade ago without understanding the details. Crystal clear outcome with all the detail one needs is here. No need to speculate. Fascinating that a geological transformation of our own doing took over 100 years to culminate into a tipping point today. On the political front it is as startlingly clear that a generational path is culminating into dictatorial control where the most horrific moral degradation is acceptable and cheered with no thought for the future consequences.
All things on this planet are gravitating to a single compressed moment. The next big bang. Scientists are now placing environmental chaos starting as soon as next year. This at the exact same timeframe for AI transforming life. Knowledge expanding at the speed of light. Internal collision between our brains ability to laser focus advancement in science as we fall into irrational chaos relating to our moral soul
We are past any ability to alter or control our destiny. 2024 will be the last year we can pretend life goes on as in the past.
When Trump is crowned his politburo will protect him till the end. So let’s steep ourselves in gladiator sports masking our own lack of soul. When the world becomes united as a soulless society don’t place blame when your soul is extinguished by others.
The speed at which a terminal moment approaches finally makes me comfortable to declare this year as the final one wher we can pretend we live in a new paradigm.
A have always assumed a final defining moment of dire transformation will occur. I made this prediction over a decade ago without understanding the details. Crystal clear outcome with all the detail one needs is here. No need to speculate. Fascinating that a geological transformation of our own doing took over 100 years to culminate into a tipping point today. On the political front it is as startlingly clear that a generational path is culminating into dictatorial control where the most horrific moral degradation is acceptable and cheered with no thought for the future consequences.
All things on this planet are gravitating to a single compressed moment. The next big bang. Scientists are now placing environmental chaos starting as soon as next year. This at the exact same timeframe for AI transforming life. Knowledge expanding at the speed of light. Internal collision between our brains ability to laser focus advancement in science as we fall into irrational chaos relating to our moral soul
We are past any ability to alter or control our destiny. 2024 will be the last year we can pretend life goes on as in the past.
When Trump is crowned his politburo will protect him till the end. So let’s steep ourselves in gladiator sports masking our own lack of soul. When the world becomes united as a soulless society don’t place blame when your soul is extinguished by others.
The speed at which a terminal moment approaches finally makes me comfortable to declare this year as the final one wher we can pretend we live in a new paradigm.
453.5 on top of 80 million. And that loss has gained Trump his popularity. But like a market fixated on great times forever his base already filtered thru their porous brain just how great he is.
I will cringe over the democrats ad campaign against Trump using just facts and trial results. Since he is already a rapist by law it seem inconceivable the needle will sway.
I await the Supreme Court cop out cowardice and partisan loyalty. I can declare with certainty we as a nation are predominately evil. Just seeing todays GOP and voters loyalty it is all the proof you need for my conclusion.
453.5 on top of 80 million. And that loss has gained Trump his popularity. But like a market fixated on great times forever his base already filtered thru their porous brain just how great he is.
I will cringe over the democrats ad campaign against Trump using just facts and trial results. Since he is already a rapist by law it seem inconceivable the needle will sway.
I await the Supreme Court cop out cowardice and partisan loyalty. I can declare with certainty we as a nation are predominately evil. Just seeing todays GOP and voters loyalty it is all the proof you need for my conclusion.
453.5 on top of 80 million. And that loss has gained Trump his popularity. But like a market fixated on great times forever his base already filtered thru their porous brain just how great he is.
I will cringe over the democrats ad campaign against Trump using just facts and trial results. Since he is already a rapist by law it seem inconceivable the needle will sway.
I await the Supreme Court cop out cowardice and partisan loyalty. I can declare with certainty we as a nation are predominately evil. Just seeing todays GOP and voters loyalty it is all the proof you need for my conclusion.
I think the top is in. Timeline is already exceeded if this isn’t a top. Have 5 distinct waves. Market complacency at extremes. No one believes inflation is real. Now seems like a rolling drop is about to happen. Hard to play.
I think the top is in. Timeline is already exceeded if this isn’t a top. Have 5 distinct waves. Market complacency at extremes. No one believes inflation is real. Now seems like a rolling drop is about to happen. Hard to play.
Just in! PPI and CPI are definitely going the wrong way. no way we get a rate cut anytime soon. BUT the street is still muted over this. Seems like a known Pandemic the street prefers to believe differently.
A nasty drop should already be here given the absurdity in the runup. Today should break down by the end of day. If not we are still in fantasy land.
Market still not ready to reverse. Still sees the January data as an anomaly despite the SURGE in JOBS, SPENDING, and DEBT.
Wait till China's massive push at stimulating their economy causing a double whammy on inflation.
The dollar and 10-year yields are also seen as an anomaly and expect both to nosedive soon.
The simple logical assumption I have made seems to bear fruit. An economy that surges during the spike in inflation without causing loss in steam is one that will ONLY get stronger as they accept the new reality on costs and inflation. Finally, WAGES are catching up. A vicious cycle.
I have been saying this will happen for over 6 months now. Always early, always rushing the inevitable.
This as the STUPREME court hell bent on making sure TRUMP is elected. Astonishing how threats against them from Trump himself has not gotten thru. We really are a stupid species determined to self-destruct. They take up the IMMUNITY case as if even they can find reason to accept him being a KING! They are as nutty and insane as the rest of the branches. A trifecta!
I have predicted this scenario ONLY with the assumption that my end game is also correct. Seems it is. Time will tell. Brace for it!
Gee what a surprise! I saw it coming and the result was immediate. NO RATE CUT anytime soon. No rate cut this year. The street is still optimistic. They will get pounded home the fact that inflation is coming back and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Debt, defaults, and extended credit will be on the streets mind before this year is out. NO ONE. I mean not a living soul saw the possibility of inflation this year.
Dollar and 10-year yield should go straight up from here. Funny how the mind works. I guess I should say doesn't work. Like the cowardly Stupreme Court they punted and gave Trump an easy win next year. I TOLD YA SO! But wait there is more. They will take up the KINGSHIP question and delay the attempt to prosecute till after the election. I guess the partisan Judges owe it to him.
What a world. What an easy prediction.
65% chance of rate cut in May. 95% in June. I guess economic data just gets ignored as the surge in wages and jobs continue. Now that China has finally gotten the message a big government stimulus is under way.
We now have the perfect scenario for the 2 biggest economic powerhouses to combine the effect on inflation.
By March that 95% should reduce to 40%. .
Big Yawn, no big number. Seems the move higher is exactly what was expected. I doubt very much in the coming months it doesn't drive from 92 to over 95.
The hope for a rate cut still remains. Market is increasing national debt so fast along with personal debt it continues to amaze me that it has not already caused a calamity. No wonder the street in anxious to lower rates.
Expecting a BIG NUMBER for January Service. This economy is on FIRE! The evidence is clear unless NY lives in a vacuum. Once this hits the wire, I expect the street to scratch its head and find a way to stay positive. Afterall a strong economy is good for business. Wonder how long they can hold that theme without seeing rates as a problem. Market should stay sanguine till someone dares to talk about a possible rate HIKE!
Like I stated before I was waiting for a heating economy and now that it is here the timeline for a crash has started. Took way longer than expected but WAGES spiking is the key and reason why the inflation cycle has started.
Then we had Powell on 60 minutes saying stuff like this: The U.S. national debt topped $34 trillion for the first time ever in early January, just over three months after surpassing the $33 trillion mark, according to data released by the U.S. Treasury. What is a TRILLION added to the national debt in 3 months' time?
All happening in a euphoric stock market moment.
The January data was so startling. the street saw what they wanted to see. Even the dollar and bond yields were muted. I "saw" with my own eyes just how dramatic the economic acceleration became. Observing the behavior of the young gave me confidence in my interpretation. I stated before this data came out that restaurants were thriving mid-week. In fact, I can't remember just when that happened before. The service sector data point for January comes out on Monday between 9:45 and 10. I am curious how the market reacts. Surely they expect a BIG number.
Call me naive, uneducated in the complex world of economic trends but when the service sector along with all other components push this high this fast when the street has been desperate to hear of rate cuts, I wonder just how insane my position is. How can the FED cut rates on this data? The real question should be how can they keep rates where they are and not raise soon?
The dollar and bond yields should be the first to react to the new reality that disinflation is dead. The dollar should easily hit 105 within a 2-week period, The 10-year note should hit yields approaching 5% from the 4% it is today also in that quick of a fashion.
For the novice economist when the activity picks up this dramatically at a time the street was sure a rate cut was needed to keep the economy humming It is either my lone voice or the masses that are wrong. This reminds me of the mass euphoria over a 100-year Pandemic coming back. The street in their infinite wisdom made a rather stupid conclusion that the street has already absorbed the future impact and determined it was non-existent. Now since this happened so short of a time ago you would THINK that they would be a bit more cognizant of the ease at which mass psychology can be persuaded against a tide of hard facts Unless my simple uncomplicated analysis is way off there is no way rates get cut in 2024. In fact, the odds of a rate hike have uncreased 10-fold JUST on January data.
Like i said last week was a watershed moment and the street treated it as a one sided extremely positive event. Will the spike in service Monday we treated like the rest? Will the bond market and dollar also have a muted reaction? I think we could see a really dramatic "correction" soon. Nothing more since it will take a "SHOW ME" moment before the street panics. That means all costs start heating up and a trend MUST also be established. So at a minimum 2 more months is needed. this assumes the data will show a spike in costs also.
I have been waiting a LONG time for WAGES to start accelerating and this last month was a big one. One off? Maybe. If not, the INFLATION CYCLE has started from a 40-year dormant state.
On an immediate trend all you have to do is see how the street reacts to the 9:45 and 10:00 data. Me, i might just place a short-term bet at 9:40.
Market easily broke out and shows no sign of reversing. We are in another spike phase. Buckle up! Seems inflation concerns are only when the consumer is stalling. I am anxiously awaiting the pundits view on rate cuts from here. But hey they accept TRUMP as the logical choice for next president. What a world!
I do have one up on this crowd. I warned for a while that the consumer will absorb the hikes demand higher pay and cause a spiral event. INFLATION is here to stay!
A great economy spells bad news. It is so great that wages zoomed, jobs zoomed, but the cycle of higher inflation is still expected to be what?
I warned this will happen. the heated economy now WITH a surge in wages can mean only one thing, INFLATION will pick up and do so quickly. Yup this should be the final move up for now. I don't see a close in positive territory. In fact, this news is so bad that when the market wakes up from its dream it will realize it woke into a nightmare situation.
The 10-year note started to wake up from a nice dream into a world that isn't so nice. Quickly roe above 4% again. January marks the start of the end. Inflation will come roaring back. How do i know this? Easy, WAGES SURGED! That means the consumer demand for wages was met and companies will once again raise their costs and prices to compensate.
THE INFLATION SPIRAL IS HERE The market has not recognized this fact yet. 4929 is my line in sand. If we close ABOVE (MY) assumptions is very wrong. The street should recognize the inflation implications TODAY! If it doesn't and we close above target MY ASSUPTIONS IS IN DOUBT!
Can we actually have such a strong report with jobs and wages at these rates without causing higher inflation? NEVER happened before.
MONDAY we get SERVICE report for JANUARY! It will be spiking higher. To put it simply the FED would be INSANE to lower rates this year with an economy heating up. The street is oblivious to this FACT! When will they wake up? Maybe today maybe Monda or not at all. Sleeping thru reality is a thing we are accustomed to.
So the logic of the street is that the FED will lower rates to relieve debt and borrowing costs as the economy is surging? Hello, anyone home. I expected this to happen but rushed it as usual. Now that it is here, we will see INFLATION as the number one topic this year.
Let the games begin!
Not a single case against TRUMP will even see the court room. Not in 2024 or ever. Not State, or federal.
The power of the dictatorial party will prevail. The landscape framing the Constitution and our Republic has been chnaged and unrecognizable.
It is also unlikely we will recover from this. On a daily basis the brazen Trump actions have shifted to the republican Party heads from all levels of government. they now explicitly state they will not cooperate with Biden because he will gain leverage to the voter. not any policy they wanted or cared about. Primary goal is to defat BIDEN at all costs. they care nothing about their causes or constituents.
And the voter sees this and dismisses it as something they have no concern about. Once the floodgates are fully opened, and that should happen with the handshake deal from the corrupt immoral Stupreme Court edicts.
The reaction off today's report is so out of character I will assume a top is just about here and that we will NOT be able to reach 4929 resulting in a nasty drop. I don't have to do anything other than watch for 4929 target. A break above on a closing basis negates my concern. ONLY 23 SPX points higher. Thats so tight we should know soon enough.
One thing i am STILL certain of. No recession, no collapse of consumer spending. Every single person touting the great condition we have today was absolutely sure the FED needed to already cut rates to prevent catastrophe. Their mistake is ignored because it resulted in a positive result. They can't even consider the implications off a strong economy in the wake of spike inflation. Like accepting TRUMP as the next president and doing everything possible to make sure all his evil is praiseworthy. This economy has absorbed accepted and is now thriving on higher rates. I KNOW this in my big apple town and can only assume it is no different than anywhere else. Service sector on FIRE!!!!!
My best placed odds are that we actually RAISE RATES in 2024. Now that's a startling conclusion. Not a single living soul sees this as a remote possibility.
Mark my words. January finally shows that we are in a new 40-year cycle. My proof is everyone else's mistake. ALL saw a tired recession starting from the rate hikes and none saw the great economic recovery. ALL see this only as a positive. Eventually there is so much debt they can absorb. Like the 70's we had STAGFLATION as a result. 2024 will be the year of revelation. Thats pretty clear now that January data came out.
There goes my theory. No drop today and actual build on data suggest we are deeply in denial and a higher spike move awaits. Bonds and stocks both see a bright future without inflation. Scratching my head on that one. Seems the past assumption on GDP and costs is assuming we continue to error on the side of higher costs. I know what I see and know what was presented today for January inflation implications.
The increase in absurdities on top of absurdities is also hereon the political front. BOTH are accelerating their assumptions and with it a really hard landing if wrong.
GOP is all in on the dictatorial powers.as TRUMP has already defeated all his opponents and anything that seems a loss will be reversed as surely as the sun rises in the mooring. We are starting 2024 with a synchronized message. White rich men have total control of this nation and with it an extreme lopsided policy from economic expansion on the disparities in sex, class, religion and a total abolishment on moral considerations. We are witnessing an acceleration, a sharp expansion of universal evil. Entropy. Lack of order or predictability; gradual decline into disorder:
The only thing that nags at me is the speed of such a change. It is as if a foregone conclusion on where we are headed and how we will benefit is complete and there is no room for doubt. That can define a topping process but ONLY (IF) we have a catalyst to disrupt the current trend. What will it be? Trump becoming a mere human again? Inflation glaring its headlights?
Oh well. Autopilot it is!
It seems that TRUMP has already won the war. Orwellian universes meet the DON. It is startling that on every front TRUMP is trouncing his opponent. On and off the court. We just need final confirmation from the Stupreme Court.
I can see the headlines now! Trump is a GOD declares the Stupreme Court! Trump is exonerated from all possible charges past, present and future. Trump the GOP, federal and state rule changes, social media giants, and the Republican controlled Suprem Court have declared the man a legitimate dictator.
On every front TRUMP will win. I mean there will be no situation where he loses any money, any business, and becomes the first lifetime dictator. Still think I am crazy. Exaggerating the situation? Well folks the current real time event of today has already proven most of these points are already true. Just a matter of waiting it out till he is crowned.
The states will pay for their injustice of TRUMP and i can assure you every single indictment will be reversed. States will be shown to be under the micropipe whether they control that state or not. The all-powerful all reaching GOP and Stupreme Court will place an impenetrable shield on Trump.
That shield is being placed on Trump in multilayered fashion. And like the Stock Market no one will see feel or care about it. Both are invincible and a new dawn for this country as it was intended all along.
I love it when I get the shake of the head. the dismissal as a clown. My rambling has already been proven and it isn't like a flip of a coin argument. no it is one in a million argument where i just got 5 of the 6 numbers right waiting for the last drawing.
10 Year note yield is telling me I am dead wrong! It has declared that inflation is dead, and a recession is upon us. The big drop today telegraphs just that.
It ignores my understanding of the recent data. One of us is right. Since they have a long strong track record i must assume I am. Will know soon enough. The 10 year note has to immediately reverse back up or it drops hard and fast towards a 3% yield. Seems the GDP report is more important than the monthly one. I use the 70's as a path we should follow after a long 40-year cycle change.
Easy to determine which of us is right. We should have confirmation of a surge in costs and economic activity over the next 2 months. IF the bond market is wrong WATCH OUT ABOVE! It should mark one of the most dramatic upside moves it has ever seen before. My number one asset class that could reward those on the right side of the bet.
I base my observation on past cyclical changes and on common sense. Perhaps the 40-year cycle is no longer? Maybe. But common sense is harder to disprove. The anecdotal evidence on consumer spending for services is obvious to me. Is it just a one-off event and revert back? Highly unlikely since human nature makes decisions as a massive train would. Slow to start and build momentum.
My take is simple: Finally, INFLATION will be on everyone's scope. They will see it at first as an anomaly month. I have a starting point for take-off and that is January 2024. Let the games begin! I have been adamant and stubborn in my insistence INFLATION is here to stay. The BOND Market disagrees with me. That alone has me worried, but the winner will be seen soon enough.
Market focus is on the PAST! Productivity surged last quarter as labor costs slowed. The fact that January is showing a significant economic expansion when they seemed more concerned with a recession tells you all you need to know. Every analyst, economist and pseudo economist is declaring that the consumer is about to roll over and the FED has NO CHOICE but to lower rates. how convenient is that assumption. it reinforces their extreme bias. The January data says something entirely different.
Seems to me there will NEVER be a rate cut in 2024. Seems to me the likelihood of a rate hick will increase month after month till alarm bells go off. Bottom line: The consumer sees today as a new normal and has adjusted nicely to the spike in inflation. Debt will be added, and everyone will just ignore it as they have in the past.
Watch as signs of inflation returning come in. We should find a way to ignore it for a while.
The MARKET should have a decent slide THIS MONTH! I see it already happening. I expect today NOT TO HOLD UP! But longer run will take more than silly data points on rising inflation to hold this sucker down.
January data is confirming for ME that we are back baby! This economy is about to take off! In wages, costs, inflation. In NY going out mid-week to a restaurant and it is packed! not just busy but till late at night. The FED knows this and will hold off till they can't in announcing the obvious. but the obvious is never seen lately.
Just one more month of accelerated economic activity and the street will start panicking. Maybe this data is a one off and not repeated?
The length at which this country will protect a seditionist is astonishing. The Georgia GOP is setting up a LAW that makes Trumps problems go away! Seems they can get rid of Trumps attempt to throw the voting count out the window. Extortion, sedition, dictatorial control are just words meaning different things to different people.
I TOLD YOU there is no length at which this GOP will go to win elections.