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As of March 31, 2024, the S&P500 P/E ratio is 69.8% (or 1.8 standard deviations) above its modern era average.
Does this tell you that current valuation is high? If the assumed multiple rate cuts don’t materialize how does this affect the p/e multiples. If stagflation results what is the mean P/E ratio of n that situation?
I just gave you a possible set of scenarios. How it plays out is anyone’s guess. Add the political environment and the social deterioration and we have a possible critical mass buildup.
What seems obvious and proven by facts can just as easily be ignored and twisted to define a rosier picture. Personally I am curious if the next 9 months develop as expected. If so we can be witnessing a big set of rollercoaster gyrations
As of March 31, 2024, the S&P500 P/E ratio is 69.8% (or 1.8 standard deviations) above its modern era average.
Does this tell you that current valuation is high? If the assumed multiple rate cuts don’t materialize how does this affect the p/e multiples. If stagflation results what is the mean P/E ratio of n that situation?
I just gave you a possible set of scenarios. How it plays out is anyone’s guess. Add the political environment and the social deterioration and we have a possible critical mass buildup.
What seems obvious and proven by facts can just as easily be ignored and twisted to define a rosier picture. Personally I am curious if the next 9 months develop as expected. If so we can be witnessing a big set of rollercoaster gyrations
THIS WEEK - No inflation data and smooth sailing for stocks. Like I expected a slow grind down. Another 6 weeks perhaps? If that part comes true, we should see the last great surge. End of June thru early November. The polls are swinging back and forth between Trump and Biden BUT "I" know that when they enter the booth they will vote with their emotions. They fear this current era and don't understand it. They pretend the foul mouth, corrupt, immoral ex-president will do their bidding and bring back the segregation, economic divide, and grant them a reprieve over the world drowning them in inclusiveness.
Many analysts today call the current situation as a great opportunity to profit from the market's downturn here. They see the big caps as fully valued but not everyone else. They also insist rate cuts will be forced on the FED this year. Almost all economists and analysts have never experienced a real downturn lasting a decade. They rewrite history to fit their most optimistic assessment. Like Inflation is no longer a cyclical process. A secular bear market is no longer possible according to them. A new paradigm has emerged where deflation and economic growth is a given.
The Dollar, bond yields, and BITCOIN are in a consolidation period and ALL economists predict a reversal back to the "sweet spot" for profits.
WHO is the most powerful dictator of them all? The President, Congree or the Supreme Court? While the GOP has done everything to shield and subvert the constitutional attacks on Trump, the hands down winner is the Supreme Court. The GOP has kept the voter fired up and on trumps side but only the Supreme Court can keep the voter happy. A trial by jurors and a guilty decision on criminal misdoings could irreparably harm Trump enough to prevent him from winning.
The Supreme Court to the rescue! They have the power to make all court cases disappear. And they will! Not only is the current trial about the Hush Money in jeopardy of being overthrown by the Supreme Court all of Jack Smiths cases are up for consideration. it has been sent to the Supreme Court to decide if Smith has the authority. I suspect ALL CASES against TRUMP will be dismissed by the Supreme Court. Shocking isn't it but now likely.
The irony is that while we have a dictator running as president, we already have a branch of government that will clear the way for that dictator to reshape our country.
WATCH FOR THE NEXT IMPORTANT CASE that will be directed against Jack Smith. We should hear of it in one month or so.
The Trump Plan: Funnel funds aimed at non-whites back. Make sure there are no benefits for non-whites and put us back 100 years. Now that's something all his supporters agree on. His reference in the past to Hitler's rhetoric has finally been allowed to openly be endorsed. I can't wait for the Supreme Court to shoot down the ONLY possible conviction before the election. This is an easy one for them to show their pledge and loyalty. They don't have to site something from hundreds of years ago. NY trying to get a federal law in to prosecute will be almost impossible to get thru that court.
I have all the confidence in the already established corrupt intent by all the branches of government to make these types of statements. Once Trump jumps back in the Supreme Court will TRY to ignore all the illegal activity till they are forced to address it. Once they do and reluctantly go against TRUMO they will realize just how much of a paper tiger they are. I can't wait to see their shocked demeanor. Still see a possible crash develop from Trumps long awaited vengeance moment on November 5th.
https://www.investing.com/news/politics/analysistrump-vows-to-fight-antiwhite-feeling-in-us-his-allies-have-a-plan-3419599
Fewer jobs and lower wages. Yup the market will latch onto anything that suggest the FED will reconsider. Rates are NOT likely to see a cut. Not this year. I suspect only when stagflation causes massive defaults. To be continued. Just like the saga of the vote for kingdom.
NBC received a condensed recap of the Time Magazine interview. Deport 11 million plus using the military and detention camps. Monitor Woman who are pregnant to see if they VIOLATE the state laws on abortion INCLUDING seeking abortion from states that allow it. Doesn't believe our allies would come to our aide if we were attacked. Refuses to come to their aide unless he feels they paid their fair share of expenses. Would use the DOJ to go after his enemies. Demand a pledge of loyalty to TRUMP himself to gain government positions. Demand at least a 10% tariff on all goods coming toto the US, including our allies.
Just declare this nation as a fascist one and you have your answer. The definition is stated as such: "an authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government and social organization.".
Recent polls have him advancing his lead. There is NOTHING any ad or endorsement can do to change this. Absolutely NOTHING! I stated this 4 years ago and will reiterate my understanding as each day goes by with the obvious conclusion. I WAS RIGHT! Am I right on the fallout? Let's just say on the day TRUMP won his first term in office I made predictions that were too optimistic. Yup I actually thought the GOP would reject his Hitler style dictatorship and eventually impeach him. I stated this on day one of his win. I WAS TOO POLYANNA in my assessment! Now that's a first for me. Imagine thinking the nation would eventually REJECT Trump (AFTER) he committed immoral illegal disgusting behavior and crimes. BOY WAS I WRONG!
With that in mind maybe November 5th declaration by Trump would be ignored. Maybe the street would conclude the GOP would reign him in. Not start a trade war, not back out of obligation to protect NATO. Not go after his opponents and actually killing them. An AG or DOJ in his pocket would clearly give him the green light. Maybe the street would actually think his plan would rake in PROFITS. Or they could do what the mases have done all along, shut out anything they find distasteful. While I was WRONG in assuming the GOP would back democracy over a crazy tyrant, maybe even on November 5th they will laugh it off. The nation just might refuse to absorb the real truth and consequence. It might be too taxing on the mind.
But my IMPULSIVE nature still pulls me strongly to bet on the eve of the victory speech by TRUMP. I expect his tone and clear concise response will leave no one with any doubt. He will be unleashed to speak his mind. A Cathartic moment for him since his persecution all these years. I count on my understanding of the man to make this claim. In the past I underestimated his honesty in telegraphing his next move. He even quoted Hitler. He will have no constraints and 4 years to accomplish his goals as permanent dictator. His chance of success is actually at 50/50. An astonishing turnaround from my original assumptions. I never thought he would put in place ruthless immoral mindset with the Judiciary, Legislature to match his own. HE ALREADY HAS!
I am so excited. While i will not be in position to be the leader of the free world fiddle away as it burns, I will be one of the crazy doomsday plaques holder laughing from so many years of pent up frustration. For by then all will see the truth.
Countdown has commenced. T-MINUS SIX MONTHS and THREE DAYS!
One the stock market analysis and why I see BOTH the political and economic implosion happen at the same time it is rather transparent. Or at least plausible today. INFLATION, no matter how high it might run between NOW and Nov. 5th the FED will NEVER RAISE RATES. Not right before an election! BUT the street will be aware of the discrepancy and be FORCED to deal with it BEFORE rates are raise.
Once this week is out, especially the economic data on Friday we should have a full week with no mention of Inflation. The market is clinging to the hope we cut this year and is shrugging off the stall by the FED. They are all unanimously convinced INFLATION can't possibly take off. They call this a stubborn period where inflation has temporarily stalled on its downward trek. The only other Trump case due this year is handled by an extremely pro-Trump judge. Her actions ALSO guarantee it will never be started.
The slow grind down in the market has begun and likely not done till end of June. The seasonality fits perfectly..
The first and ONLY trial Trump will see is an easy one to predict. The odds of all jurors using facts to conclude Trumps guilt is slim. There should be hidden in the mix at least one Trump cult follower. Even if they manage to convict on appeal the case will be thrown out. The novel idea of using state law to prosecute a federal crime is an easy one for the Supreme Court to throw out. In fact, it is the ONLY one where they have some legitimacy.
As to this correction, we should see a full 13 week drop. Late June onward should show just how quickly greed and a glimmer of hope for rate cuts takes us. Since Trump already made a partial manifesto known it should only scratch the surface. Come November 5th he will be anxiously voicing his plan. Pent up vengeance. I still wonder if the market will be that predictable. Afterall they already know some of his plan so anything added shouldn't be a shock. Maybe because the prosect of him winning isn't the same as winning?
November 5th at night should set up for the start of a slide that just might end up in a crash. A long shot for sure but one I can't resist.
The ability for 50% of voters to see Trump as a victim and the stock market investment as the best way to make money can be seen as TRUE. It is all a matter of perspective. Change the algorithm selectively placing favorable choices. We can dismiss the 70's and the 30's as a rare event and one that ALWAYS reverts back to the upside. We can leave out Trumps own words and deeds and focus on his radical method of leading and conclude he is a visionary. We can excuse our own acceptance of bigotry, hate, corruption by focusing on the bigger picture. TODAY FOX and the GOP is allowing you to pretend he is still a victim.
If we can be this delusional refusing to change our way of thinking despite an avalanche of evidence, is it just possible our understanding of the stock market has the same ingredients? The rigid 100% absolute path for stocks and inflation is a known fact. Innovation, business savvy honed over decades, alone with a very long pattern of deflation must be accepted and to make any other conclusion is foolish. Just change the parameters leaving out those that mess it up.
The current correction is probably just that. The timing of a new president and possible top of a massive bull run MUST be come into focus. The timing on both events is startling IF you decided to look for it. Debt is a subject no one, not even economists ever consider anymore. Like getting used to consumers taking out 10 to 20 credit cards. The immediate affect is not seen. Nor is it seen in the longer picture. BUT they don't even contemplate the very obvious. AT SOME POINT the burden becomes too much and bankruptcy will be declared. In fact, i is inevitable.
AT SOME POINT! Political fascism is here regardless of how much you want to recognize it. Sedition, treason, extortion, corruption are just words on a paper with no meaning for most of us. UNTIL it affects YOU! We don't even want to accept the inevitable. We enjoy what we have and only see a dictatorial government of white Christian men working for you. In Germany they easily accepted the JEW as their scapegoat for all ills in the world. We are GERMANY! This time an ending conflict such as war will not end the pain. It will seal it for eternity.
The TIMES MAGAZINE interviewed Trump on his plan for term 2. He made it crystal clear why his voters support him. He made it crystal clear White Christian men with subservient wives are his base. We have a crystal-clear understanding of the American Peoples inner feeling on hate, bigotry and willingness to do anything to gain control over others. No ambiguity. Out of his own mouth. The Democrats have pretended that the people just don't understand who Trump is. No YOU the Democrat don't understand just who the Trump voter is. A massive number that will soon sweep the country with violence hatred bigotry and be protected by the justice department which used to jail them. A new era. A new Hitler.
Trump will WIN easily this time around. The electoral college is a easy win. The November 5th vote will see all polls declaring Trump a winner before the night is out! His manifesto will be announced that night. Since the stock market never concerns itself with politics all will expect a dull see-saw move and conclude the trend of markets will not be disturbed. I suspect however the message he brings on election night will be so disruptive to PROFITS and trade the market just might crash then and there. A long shot for sure but keep that in mind depending on what he states on that fateful night.
I am actually coordinating my betting strategy on these external events. it is that monumental. In order to see the type of crash I envision Trumps long frustration and persecution should likely spew out on election night. IF that happens, I can actually see Wednesday thru Friday as deep down followed by a crash on the 4th day Monday November 11. YES 9/11. NINE-ELEVEN would make the previous 3 trading days a response to his speech and a prelude to a cascading crash
Do YOU believe in coincidence? 9/11 666. The last time we had a devastating drop as low as 666 on the SPX was when Cramer announced on his TV show the sky is falling and all should sell sell sell. I will be positioning a crazy long shot bet on November 5th when Trump announces his win.
A prominent conservative judge brings to light the absurdity of what has transpired in regard to the Supreme Court behavior when the question of trump immunity in this specific charge. They are presenting arguments in the hypothetical seaming towards political retribution against a former president. The absurdity of this one question makes us belu8eve that the current charge against Trump is somehow POLITICAL in nature. A coup attempt? Sedition? Extortion? Treason? All apply to Trump. No hypothetical there.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/judge-luttig-blasts-scotus-for-avoiding-key-question-at-the-heart-of-trump-immunity-case/vi-AA1nOxAj?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9dea4e4414f14a3b82cabc09c19d9e83&ei=9#details
Best Guess chart pattern till late October. This should be a 13 week drop. Already had 5 weeks and 8 to go! Should be in the form of 5 waves down. In the early part of wave 3. TARGET: 4750 on SPX. If we come close in the timeframe I suggested expect a BIG rebound from late June to late October. A 4-month surge. Should capture new highs or a double top at the minimum. That suggests INFLATION will be tame enough to keep the thought alive that rate cuts will happen in 2025.
Now that the Supreme Court guaranteed TRUMP a victory with their partisan fanatical political slant they also assure themselves another first. First time in our history where the Supreme Court will become an obsolete totally ignored entity. They have assured their own destruction. Doesn't take a genius to figure this out. Not that it matters anymore.
They have repeatedly shown criminal behavior by delaying all gerrymandering cases involving the GOP lean and quickly ruled on any Democratic lean. The stall on whether a KING can subvert the will of the voter has been delayed to oblivion. Instead of a decisive slap they gave a handshake. We live in ominous times and as such very few can recognize the crest of the wave till it crashes over you.
2025 and beyond will start bad and get progressively worse. It will usher in a broken geopolitical, economic and moral period. We will be tested for our ability to crawl out of it and unfortunately this time around our superior advancement in science will be used during our most diseased emotional state. The combination will be devastating.
The Employment Cost Index increased 1.2% last quarter after rising by an unrevised 0.9% in the fourth quarter, while labor costs increased 4.2% on a year-on-year basis.
The report followed data last week that showed price pressures heating up in the first quarter.
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What a surprise! I stated a long time ago that ONLY when Inflation takes the form of wages and employment costs do we have a run-away situation. The cycle has been completed. We are NOW entering the early 70's. Don't expect the economy to withstand a large inflation run but there should be a breaking point that causes a massive downturn. one that will NOT recover quickly.
We are officially, by me, in a new phase where inflation took hold. The street is slow to accept this but before this year is out they will. Anywhere between late October and late November we should see that crash. I don't even care where the stock market is at that point since the devastation will be much larger than anyone anticipates. We have a timeline, and I will be betting into it. We can be 10 percent lower from the highs at the time or 10 percent higher. It matters not.
Amazing how the election results should coincide with the crash event. Now that the radical self-destructive Supreme Court is displaying massive Hubris as the GOP has shown for some time now a completed picture will be when Trump is crowned. The stupidity of the Supreme Court is only matched by Trumps insanity and the GOP greed. Once trump takes control, he will test the Supreme Courts ability to hold him back and find they have no such hold. Thier current position on Trump will cause be their own destruction.
The absurdity of all the false outrageous and impossible assertions and later retractions that cost lots of money in defamation cases has done the damage they sought. THEY put it out there and the TRUMP CULT lick it up. In fact, the cost to these publications is nothing compared to the loss of revenue if they didn't lie.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/oan-retracts-and-apologizes-for-false-story-about-key-trump-trial-witness/ar-AA1nSM4s?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=39bcf6b58d68485196bcee01ee0de16d&ei=13
Please don't think I am all cynicism about the future but rather a madman seeing clearly the path we are heading to and unable to steer it away. A good sailor can predict the storm and its path based on personal experiences. I have had decades of experience. A hung jury or on the outside chance of a conviction only means the courts will find a way to delay, put aside, or declare that the premise of the trial should not have been allowed. It is the hardest case to prove against all the other more serious cases and yet on its own it is so darn easy to make the correct choice. A simpleton with 5th grade education and mental capacity is required for this case alone while a 3rd grader can find Trump guilty on all the rest.
MOOT POINT! There is no way TRUMP ever sees one day in jail. There is a guarantee once in office he will DESTROY completely the republic and make the Supreme Court the laughingstock of the world. That is till that branch is torn off completely. I WARNED about the Supreme Court being and extension of TRUMP a long while ago. How is my score? Anyone keeping track?
I not only see TRUMP as the KING but a surprise upsurge in congressional Republican control. In fact the possibility of a trifecta complete control of federal rule is well over 70%. The smiling Dems keep relying on facts and common sense with a dash of moral indignation to come to their senses. Did this world not recently go thru the Hitler 12-year reign? Do they think it was a one-off situation?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-supreme-court-majority-sounds-sold-on-trump-s-big-lie/ar-AA1nRNwq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=29f590e779bd4024b041a7d5ff6e9c4c&ei=53
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/read-brett-kavanaugh-s-opinion-on-presidential-immunity/ar-AA1nSwVg?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4a87fa3cf87f4e5b86939ed0382119af&ei=6
Just 2 of many articles recently presented. They act as if this wasn't an already completed task right after trump managed to elect 3 extreme right fanatical judges that plan to undue 60 ears of progress.
TRUMP has a clear path and i just can't wait for his impulse to explode into chaos. Once anointed king I can promise you that even the most loyal supreme court judge will anger trump and cut off that branch of government with one swift chop. Seems even the most corrupt judge and lawyer will either fall under Trumps decision he no longer needs them or forcibly be removed by trump himself. I marvel at the stupidity of these constitutionalists that put blinders on declaring themselves immune to persecution as well.
ALL THINGS moving as planned as if the devil and god have purposely positioned the world into a big one battle and purging.
But hey, I am a lunatic since 50% of voters can't even acknowledge the anti-Christ is here. Astonishing. latest POLL shows TRUMP by 5% and sealing the electoral college!
Why economists who originally expected multiple deep rate cuts in 2024 now say a hike is possible - MARKET INSIDER article
Seems my very long-standing assumption on Inflation is finally getting thru. Not yet the mainstream but coming. The market baked in 3 or at a minimum 2 rate cuts this year and with it the high multiples on the P/E ratio. What happens if stagflation occurs? Think the 70's. the market went down and stayed there for a very long period. the lost decade. This time around we start at even higher multiples and accelerated profit expectations. This will devastate the market and when inflation continues higher it will cause massive defaults in many sectors of the economy. The recent run-on banks will be a small example and magnified 10-fold.
But this takes time and a slow realization from multiple months of higher inflation to finally set in.
On a decent vacation and coming back the same old but more so. The charts are pretty consistent. SPX has a Shiller ratio chart showing a very uniform 7 wave structure hitting a high around 38 P/E. IF we actually manage to break above that mark (highly unlikely) we will have a NINETH wave. I suspect we either attempt a double top or never get to that high mark. STAGFLATION is now being talked about. Some see the las GDP numbers as alarming. The street is absorbing the assumption of NO RATE CUTS THIS YEAR! It is taking a while to do so and the current drop seems like a consolidation pattern. Bitcoin has a really nice consolidation structure suggesting we have more upside ahead. Even Trump Social is rebounding from obvious dismal earnings prospects. Even the Stupreme Court is making itself know just how radical it is. They are proposing that TRUMP has absolute immunity and anything and everything he does is just fine with them. They even use a hypothetical example of future persecution of a president. They have already made sure he wins the next election. Once he is in office, I suspect he will defy a Supreme Court decision and even go so far as to demand they get dissolved. Think this is too radical even for trump? In fact, it is almost a forgone conclusion. There will be a case that pushes even the extreme right court to vote against trump. When that happens, we find out if they have any power to enforce any ruling offensive to trump.
ALL scholars are shocked just how radical and unconstitutional the Stupreme Court ruling have become.
EVERYTHING in place for the granddaddy of all political, economic, social and moral reversals., I suspect STRONLY the current Hush Money case will end in a hung jury. Even if there is a verdict of guilty, he will not spend one day in jail and the outcome will sway NO ONE on voting.
The Supreme Court has sealed our fate as I suspected they would. It also seals their own. Everything and everyone involved in loyalty for the Trump Mafia end up a chattered victim. The number of lawyers going to jail or stripped of their license is astonishing. The Teflon Don will quickly show his pent-up anger and not a full year in office will there be before the WORLD understands the consequence.
The unholy truth of Democratic political strategy is that they believe a barrage of embarrassing remarks and rulings by the GOP will shock and embarrass those voters that supported them. They just can't accept that 50% of this nation wants the insanity to continue in order to feel good about themselves and their stance that the "other" has caused their problem. Irrational behavior is normal in human history, ONLY a direct cause and effect will change that. You don't get that type of response till AFTER the event comes to a conclusion.
Market: By JUNE we should see 4800 area as the final low. This assumes INFLATION is still a question mark and no spike moves higher or lower. If that pattern emerges July thru September should see a huge rebound perhaps equaling or exceeding the old highs. October thru December right now is a big question mark.
I just don't have a clue where or when the final top occurs.
In the past we should hit a low today followed by 2 or even 3 days of sharp rebounds. This makes sense if the drop is to continue till June. Slip sliding. I also believe the WORSE of the drop is here and the rest will be a calm complacent reinforcement that it is just a normal correction. If we cut thru todays lows Monday, we could actually be seeing a really deep drop followed by a short but spectacular rebound. Odds of the latter are small today.
The STAND! Stephen Kings very simplistic story of good vs evil is a modern take on the biblical example of Sodom and Gamoran. The daily press releases on corruption at all levels of government and hedonistic personal behavior with an ever-increasing willingness to boast seems to be cheered by the public as if they themselves wished they had the power to do so also. Projecting their own unfulfilled desires onto them.
In as simple terms we embrace a Hitler persona because it is far easier to blame the weak and make concrete our fears than to become introspective and expose our own weakness of character. Like all cycles in life, we are once again circling around to the darkest periods in our history. Humans' physical advancement in intellectual brain expansion while the primitive older part of the brain dealing with emotions are stymied makes for one hell of a conflict. 90 years ago, we barely come out of it intact. Place your bets!
I LOVE being right as it boosts my own ego knowing i am special and unique as an individual. Perverse admission but true. But as i have explained decades ago I can live with being a total failure and take my personal consequence for it than be right and watch everything around me fall to dust. SADLY, only a MIRACLE in my estimation would reverse the fixed course I set out. Democrats and some republicans are finally pancaking over the prospect of Trump winning. They are STILL using the old notion that exposing Trump will change their minds.
What the DEMS need to do is EXPOSE our own HATE and EVIL shaming us into submission. That will NEVER HAPPEN!
TRUMP guaranteed the crown! Thanks to FOX, GOP, Federal Judge, and of course the Supreme Court!
Startling concept. A man that was exposed for the most horrendous unimaginable crimes like RAPE, SEDITION, EXTORTION, and even TREASON has maintained his stronghold by the voters. To a man or woman, they use the excuse that BIDEN is WORSE! The current NY case is the weakest, most complicated, and likely to get a hung jury. EVEN if he is convicted it will not sway ONE PERSON. But many reading this, and by now that number dwindled to a handful that voted for TRUMP shake their heads as if attempted a joke that wasn't funny.
The cannon case will NEVER EVER SEE THE LIGHT OF DAY! All cases against Trump, be it state, federal will also not see a jury trial. All outraged elitists that gave up on the hope of returning the two-tier society have regained their mojo and have advanced so far as to shout out their bigotry as a badge of honor. They ride the devils' coattails using our own personal moral struggles to their advantage. Once Trump made it crystal clear that freely boasting evil intent gets you elected, they all jumped over themselves to follow the same strategy.
BUT the press and news outlets not corrupted, along with the 45% of voters that are in shock and horror over Trumps candidacy STILL to this day actually believe by having trials and sentencing will somehow wake all the others up. The concept that these majority voters WANT actions and behavior of Trump and the GOP to continue. They foolishly think after all this time they just haven't been given the true story.
While both sides of the moral dilemma couldn't be more opposite their behavior greatly benefits the devil. One is already a convert while the other is so far gone in believing the good in all that they actually think one day they will wake up to trumps corruption and immoral behavior and be disgusted by it. They are as delusional as the fanatics worshiping the man.
I POSTED the final solution YEARS AGO! I knew with certainty TRUMP will destroy our country for generations to come, assuming we live thru it. I POSTED on the day of his inauguration the final outcome would be a dismantled republic and i was ridiculed. NOW they conveniently forget my prophecy and their attitude and latch onto any notion that survives their original intent. From righteous indignation for those trying to take down a saint messenger form God to accepting he is a down to earth man that has faults but means well. He is the repentant one that will bring back GLORY to the White Christain male and the biblically correct interpretation of their role in the world.
I proved the insanity of the times with a 100-year-old plague resurfacing and the mass majority of the investor was sanguine complacent and used twisted logic to stay invested for 5 LONG WEEKS! Now we are living with the antichrist that failed to complete his mission and will complete it soon enough.
HOW anyone thinks his return wouldn't affect the elitist (White Christian) profits in the stock market must be as smart as his own personal lawyers that got disbarred and jailed for lying to stay LOYAL! Everything Trump touches thru his lifetime has turned to dung for all those that rode along but managed to keep himself ensconced in gold.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ken-you-lost-this-case-texas-ag-mocked-for-absurdly-claiming-a-win-after-supreme-court-rules-9-0-against-him/ar-BB1lNqov?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=6e26f8612fb94971a1ca63fc4c35eb75&ei=15
Just one example of many that the state and federal legislature is back in the Tammany Hall era.
Market trying to come to terms with NO RATE CUT IN JUNE! They will of course assume it has to happen right after that meeting. So how does a market that was assured 2 or 3 rate cuts this year handle the situation? Why by finding reasons to still be bullish at these high P/E ratios. It takes time but we have a great capacity for deluding ourselves with any preposterous idea they can latch onto.
Today is day14 of the slide. Way too controlled so no panic in sight. Let's see if we can reverse and rally here as we did in November.
The pattern both in the SP500 and Bitcoin seem in sync. Both look as if we are in the 3-month correction phase. That still places end of JUNE as possible lows. The ONLY way that can occur is for inflation data to stay mixed or even drop. It also assumes a spark, a rate cut perhaps. Since the early 70's had a period of disinflation before spiking a lot higher this too might be happening here.
The other pattern i have discovered is that the assumed rebound should last 5 months. Late June to late November? First we need to see if the move till end of June is part of the correction. Then we have to see a sharp rally kicking off July. IF those things occur i would bet the late October to late November scenario for a top and a monumental crash.
I have been waiting for such a crash and the combination of a TRUMP win with GOP control favoring businesses it could be the catalyst needed. Of course, the street would have to be totally oblivious to TRUMPS actions. That seems very doable. Then we need a spike inflation period at the same moment. A final hurrah over TRUMP win followed by sobering reality from Trump and the inflation data.
I made these future predictions many times and all were completely wrong. Law of averages? I am massively BIAS as I have been from day one of the announced Pandemic. I pounded the argument home that the market was completely irrational and got laughed at. ONLY the FIRST DEATH here in the US caused a crash response. OBTUSE! The same people that voter for TRUMP find reasons to actually think Biden is a monster and Trump just slightly flawed. The ability of individuals to dismiss the obvious because they don't want to face its conclusions is a repetitive pattern of ours. we do horrific things in the name of GOD , country and self-centered false superiority. Imagine comparing Biden, a man that has NO crimes, no evidence of any kind to illicit behavior. YET WE COMPARE HIM TO TRUMP AND TRUMP WINS?
if anyone wondered how Germany could latch onto Hitler for !2 years and do so believing their inner prejudice was correct than it stands to reason trump can do the same. We are a spiteful hateful selfish creature. Politicians know this and rely on it to divert their own monstrous behavior. I dare anyone to define the attributes of an antichrist better than Trump has.
I have proven over and over just how easy it is to have a trillion-dollar market fool itself and do so in a clear transparent way. The winter that is coming will be one where it is likely we don't recover from.
NO ONE. I mean (NO ONE) ever saw rates moving higher here. The dollar yields and expectation. ALL analysts and brokerage firms factored in 3 rate cuts for this year spurring exciting big earnings gains. Why else are we at a dangerous P/E level today? The call was unanimous as they explained the laws of physics demanded rates drop. In fact they gave thousands of reasons why it is impossible to have inflation ever again.
BUT ME!
It is now on a trajectory that suggests at some point, perhaps 10 year approaching 5 percent where any drop will be exaggerated, and stock rally assured. That is until more accumulated data shows not only a stubborn resistance to lower inflation but an actual acceleration. I can't harp enough just how full proof a crash is when everyone sees the world with tinted glasses. I have looked for years to find anyone expecting danger for higher inflation. Found NONE! That makes for a crash. Like a known Pandemic that the science gets completely ignored and comes to a shocking conclusion AFTER there is ONE DEATH Like electing TRUMP completely excusing his criminality and INSANE stance.
I can spend an eternity trying to understand human behavior at the extreme but will fail ever time. I can only shake my head and conclude we are self-destructive.
How big was Powells announcement? Monumental. Like the world labeling the virus as a runaway Pandemic. How likely will the street heed the implications? All we have to do is wait. One week, two, three? If we just see a normal correction here and a multi-week rebound the answer is simple. We stay in a pocket of irrational exuberance. Even if rates and the dollar keep defying their desire for it to steady or go lower. You are now witnessing the MOTHER of ALL PAST MANIAS.
Maybe we continue this slide for another week and then resume a slow and steady rebound? A faster one? A sideways move? DO NOT KNOW!
But I can assure you we are NOT in the FIFTH WEEK of a PANDEMIC just yet. This mega move has legs, and such an insane valuation takes time for everyone to wrap their heads around the immediate consequences dead ahead. DEAD AHEAD! An arbitrary concept. The longer the mega bull run arguably from 40 years ago the more likely the sledgehammer would have to strike 2 or even 3 times before they realize they are dead. Maybe i got this all wrong being so cynical.
NAH!
Hold the presses! Powell just announced inflation stubbornly high and deflation stalling. Wow what an observation! Translation: forget about it! Rate cuts this year seems like a very wishful dream. Wait till it starts to back up and drum roll…. It must be already seen by the Fed for this announcement today.
The real estate bets housing bank gambles borrowing costs etc. will cause a shock as the roulette wheel jumps to a stop. What number will come up?
Turns out I was wrong in assuming Trump was the most dangerous entity on this planet. The cumulative evidence now shows by a wide margin the Supreme Court has taken over the revolution and validated the sedition as a means to their end. They will squash any attempt at prosecuting Trump and go so far as to strip even states rights. They will make sure Trump and the GOP destroy all progressive challenges to a strongly held belief that white men are the only qualified people to dominate the rule of law. With it naturally implies Christian beliefs.
It seems unlikely now that Trump has to challenge the Supreme Court since all rulings will benefit him. Now that 2 of the 3 branches of government is secure the last will topple quickly.
This looks like a full wave correction that almost always lasts 3 months. That places the drop to end around 6/1 to 6/15. It also assumes a very shallow drop from 5/1 to 6/1-15. So far, the worse of the drop should be here soon followed by a steady but slow drawdown. It also implies that JUNE Fed meeting will be positive for stocks. I can't currently see that scenario, but the chart looks best if it fit that pattern. This implies that the FED will lower rates in June meeting. If they do not lower rates or suggest strongly, they intend to at the next meeting after we could be seeing a decent drop and a fast one at that.
I wish i had a better handle on the move but in the final euphoric phase of the bull run it becomes very hard to figure out. The best-case scenario is a market that reverses higher in mid-June on. That would imply the final last wave structure is here. Like i stated before it is a pure guess at this stage and in the past few years the pattern has been to always rebound from any deep drop almost immediately. The ONLY difference is that we have lived in a higher borrowing environment for much longer than anything seen in the recent past.
Even BITCOIN seems like it is consolidating from a normal corrective phase. The street seems complacent here, so a little shakeup only puts it back on its heels.
The universal consensus is that earnings window will be the best in a long time going forward. The banks always kick off earnings season and it usually causes most of the angst. We are in that window today. Morphing into anything more damaging is possible but for me unlikely.
Still in the correction phase as the seasonality accounts for it. Dollar and 10-year Bond finally waking up to the strong opinion that INFLATION combined with economic activity have been strong and seems to be consolidating with a possible breakout event in next few months. In other words, the street had a wet dream about rate cuts this year, one after the other. The FED might actually do so to make sure the economy is accelerating during election period. If they do, we can be assured of a really big jump in inflation right after. Either way rate cuts will cause a disaster while no rate cuts will build towards a disaster. The economy is acting as if the current rates are no bother.
To be clear we had a bank run not seen since the 1920's because of the HUGE BETS by banks that rates were going to be lower. The current situation has not changed, and the laws to this day do not prevent a future debacle. Under the surface debt strain is huge. The FED knows this and wants any excuse to lower rates and is stalling by presenting this scenario knowing darn well they have NO control over the future path of inflation.
On track now. Finally see the breakout from a long consolidation period. The dollar and yields are screaming. Loud and clear they do NOT see any rate cuts this year. NONE! Like i said, if the FED ignores the inflation signs and cuts anyway, I expect an initial reaction of exuberance by wall street. That just makes for a quicker more dramatic spike and crash. A condensed version of what I expect. Will the FED cut this year? Will there be any call for it based on economic activity? Doesn't really matter. Psychology is everything. Just like a Pandemic that was ignored till it no longer could be.
We have a possible 4th wave correction here. Both corrections happened between 2 and 2.5 months apart. IF 4/12 is the lows of this correction we can expect the 5th wave to hit no earlier than 6/12 and most likely at the end of JUNE! It only describes a 5-wave short term move and not whether we are in the longer-term ending pattern. Retail sales doing just fine and the dollar and bond yields have definitely broken out. I suspect it remains in a shallow upside trajectory from here. The slower the move the more wall street will accept it without complaining.
The odds of trump ever seeing jail time is as close to zero as possible. The odds he wins the presidency is as close to 100% as possible. I suspect Wall Street will cheer the news till he opens his mouth in public. The Supreme Court made sure he would be on the ballot and win. They will be rewarded with a slap in the face by TRUMP and the GOP soon after his election. He is bound to exceed his legal authority and the Supreme Court will be forced to rule against him. That first ruling will be met with disdain and become the first of many rulings that just get ignored. What I do know is besides rounding up millions of illegals he will go after his enemies with a vengeance. The most powerful man in the world with the GOP behind him is like Putin and the Politburo.
I find it so ludicrous that the people voting him in, helping his cause would naturally be the first casualties. He takes a perverse pleasure in punishing those that are loyal. New York, prosecutors, mayors, senators, state assemblies will all feel the wrath of a dictator. Even private citizens will not escape his determination to punish all.
BUT before the awakening Wall Street will SURGE! The final last signature blowoff rivalling all others.
LONGEST downturn for over 5 months! Shallow but anxiety has finally caught hold. We will be watching for economic strength and signs that both manufacturing and services are well above 50 (even). Since jobs are still very strong any continued strength in those economic areas and the likelihood of rate cuts anytime soon is out the window,
Dollar has broken out! Not yields yet.
Inflation is only one part of the equation for the FED to cut rates. They have to see enough weakness to JUSTIFY a cut. There isn't any yet. In fact, the current situation suggests the consumer is accepting current borrowing costs and even starting to accelerate their purchases.
It is obvious the FED wants to find an excuse to cut pre-election. If they do cut premature the result will be swift. A spike move causing INFLATION to take off.
I still expect mid to late JUNE to be one possible steep quick drop. I don't actually anticipate it then, but that window seems open.
Seems we are NOW in the corrective phase. Slow and steady. It might morph into a deeper drop, but odds favor we stay in the well-defined uptrend.
The TALK about INFLATION at the same time THREE RATE CUTS are expected is as logical as the Pussy Magnet rapist getting evangelical voters to cheer him on. I told ya TRUMP will be our next and possibly last president. I know 99.9% of ya still see my rants as irrational unnecessary and fear mongering. But all I have to do is present to a rational voter with average intelligence the facts and ask they explain the rational and I will get complete silence. I have been doing just that for many years and nor a single response to counter the reality of the situation.
We are the ONLY nation that is not sliding back into a deflationary long-standing pattern of some 40 years. ONCE China gets traction, and it will, you can expect inflation to accelerate. The dollar has finally BROKEN OUT! Now a sign that the FED needs to cut rates is it. But the street will find ways to ignore reality till that one death by a known Pandemic kills on US soil.
Bitcoin is about to break out also building a solid base ever higher. From 70K to 80K will test the major resistance and if it manages to break even that this bubble has longer and much higher to go.
One thing i am certain of, this period of time marks the most irrational immoral unethical corrupt period during peace time. Arizona banned all abortions based on an 1864 ruling well before it even became a statehood. Seems their understanding of science and acceptance of non-white races was advanced. Imagine applying all their past rulings onto todays public. Blacks would immediately be chained and sold, woman would be stoned by their father or husband for daring to speak out of turn, Gun control would be met with killing anyone that tried to change the law on the spot. We live in the WILD WILD WEST!
The insanity of the situation is so frightening it becomes comical. How else can you cope. But don't you worry, these changes are just the beginning. The speed at which we revert to accepting vigilantes, purging the white race of impurities, and total lawlessness behavior being praised has only a mere 12 months to complete. The speed at which we plunge into chaos will even be seen by the fanatic. They will be euphoric over this change while the rest of us curled up into a ball refusing to accept reality.
I hope we can HOLD UP till early next year or at least till the next president is elected. I KNOW who TRUMP is and what he plans for his 4 year final orgasmic reign. Anyone with half a brain would know also. But I digress. I also know with certainty this nation is already gone. The path is set, point of no return. When the street realizes it will affect their precious stock market is another matter. OBTUSE! Like expecting 3 rate cuts as the economy strengthens.
Market obsessed fixated and down right determined to get what it wants this June. Rate cut. Can you imagine such a strong labor market receiving a rate cut when GDP is very strong wages rising and manufacturing back in positive territory? I mean let’s get real. In the off chance the Fed does find an excuse to lower rates what do you think happens as a response? Lower economic activity or higher? incentive to accelerate economic activity beyond the 3% To encourage inflation to run higher?
June was my first possible crash date but I gave that small odds. Now however if the data shows strong labor wages and nagging high inflation and the Fed does not declare cuts off the table we could have an ideal crash situation.
No one believes me when I say the market needs rate cuts as opposed to wants it. Lots of long term borrowing could see defaults. Lots of assays depend on lower rates. Surprised economists are oblivious to this.
Let the continued data determine which is on track.
Market obsessed fixated and down right determined to get what it wants this June. Rate cut. Can you imagine such a strong labor market receiving a rate cut when GDP is very strong wages rising and manufacturing back in positive territory? I mean let’s get real. In the off chance the Fed does find an excuse to lower rates what do you think happens as a response? Lower economic activity or higher? incentive to accelerate economic activity beyond the 3% To encourage inflation to run higher?
June was my first possible crash date but I gave that small odds. Now however if the data shows strong labor wages and nagging high inflation and the Fed does not declare cuts off the table we could have an ideal crash situation.
No one believes me when I say the market needs rate cuts as opposed to wants it. Lots of long term borrowing could see defaults. Lots of assays depend on lower rates. Surprised economists are oblivious to this.
Let the continued data determine which is on track.
Economists declare this is a great period in time to invest in stocks.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/momentum-is-so-strong-jeremy-siegel-says-the-us-stock-market-bull-run-isn-t-over-and-points-to-1-attractive-group-with-a-lot-of-ways-to-go/ar-BB1l7qV5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=dc0e715c8d534430b6bdb2d0ce0b6dc9&ei=61
They can't Invision anything going wrong. You see when you have blinders on and refuse to even consider an alternative scenario it is easy to become complacent. No evaluation of events if inflation picks up from here. NONE! astonishing. It is a solid denial that inflation even has a remote chance of taking place. The reason is simple. it is really bad news if it were to occur for no economists would ever declare that scenario as benefiting earnings. NONE! So what do you do, why pretend it isn't a concern. How did the market rally in a PANDEMIC? Easy, the masses decided they have an excuse to dismiss it all together.
All this is happening with a 100 percent euphoric mindset in the economy as they excuse the election of an antichrist. Does that sound normal to you? This sucker can indeed breakdown anytime but i suspect the longevity has placed concrete barriers to reality so a full year from now seems more plausible.
With manufacturing activity surging well above expectations and prices also rising much higher with the added jobs report the notion that the FED wants to STIMULATE is INSANE! But we know the real reason the street is anxious for a rate cut. They fear long term damage due to bowwows and lenders long standing practice of assuming disinflation would create profits for everyone. The exact opposite will happen if it doesn't reverse soon. The other reason is competition. The street doesn't want any. The slow crawling buildup to a possible breakout inflation event is still going on with no sign of a major change just yet. Slow and steady.
The longer we remain at these rates with a strong economy the more likely the policy shifts. The mistake would be to lower rates this year and i believe the FED would do just that. The subsequent spike in inflation would be dramatic if they do appease the investor.
From Trump Truth Social debacle, Michigan Police endorsement of trump and the desperate Wall Street plea for rate cuts. What a time to be living. It epitomizes the culmination of greed, morally vacant, emotionally numbed voters. 300K new jobs and the street expects between 6 and 3 rate cuts this year?
I guess if the street thought a pandemic would not disrupt the stock market. we are now in good company. But the technical indicators are pointing to a solid 2024.
That should mean that someway, somehow the street ignores all the disasters till after the election. Personally, i find that hard to swallow but human nature being what it is suggests the blinders stay on till it is torn off.
The rolling acceptance of delayed rate cuts. From 6 to 3 to ???? INSANE that anyone thought a GDP of over 3%, surging jobs, wage growth was going to cause the FED to lower rates? The desperation on the part of Wall Street to believe in cuts here seems to be dismissed as if their concern has no real backing to it. it does and no one wants to see it. Like a Pandemic coming to our shores. But that might take time to understand and i am afraid the street will not be crashing on anticipation of 6 months down the road. they will need absolute proof that the profit train is getting derailed.
So maybe it will take absolute proof and a wakeup call that it already happened. That scenario implies early next year. Me i can never understand the obstinate stance on what will happen. Heck 5 weeks after an announced pandemic? But for now, the street will find excuses to put inflation behind them.
The stupidity of human nature makes anticipating repetitive responses a sure thing. Rate Cut when the economy is surging? Manufacturing is solidly in the black along with all aspects of economy. Can you imagine having a rate cut here? Like pouring gasoline to a fire. I do marvel at the ability of fantasy optimism to catch on so easily and quickly.
Ask yourself how it is possible for economists.to declare a New Paradigm in the late 1920's and see only strong profits as far as the eye can see? Then to be wrong in such a degree is simply astonishing. You would think that the great depression didn't happen on a whim, on a late-night discovery. Surely the forces behind the depression were lurking and visible. Surely economists must have been able to see this as a strong possibility. And all the other crashes? In particular the Pandemic. To this day all those experts and current prognosticators that declare the sky is clear and profits will accelerate from here are the same ones that never saw a crash even AFTER the Pandemic was clearly spreading.
The news on the RSI indicator has never been wrong so far. It declares a solid strong upside for next 10 months. I can't deny its track record but, in my assessment, it can only happen with interest rates, bond yields, dollar not much higher than we have it today. That means MY expectations have to be tempered on inflation till next year. MY scenario would not allow rates to spike any higher and have a solid bullish move on Wall Street. I await the inflation data to see if I am wrong on the timing.
DAY TWO of the slide! The notion that a rate cut isn't coming has sunk in. We have never had more than a 4-day consecutive slide and i expect this one will be no different. Just a hiccup? Most likely. Watch the steady but strong evidence of a reversal in the dollar and bond yields. It should continue on a shallow upward trajectory where no one pays attention to the ramification.
Imagine all the suckers and fanatics that kiss the ground Trump walks on gobbling up a loser stock that has the uncanny similarity to everything trump touches. I can imagine these same people are doubling down around now.
TRUTH SOCAIL stock has just plunged to earth days after its launch. BUT count on TRUMO to be able to cash in very soon taking out 3 billion in presumed value. The man constantly screws his loyalists as they jumped in at the offer not even bothering to see the fundamentals. .
Trump fleeces his cult as they remain in a trance. The stock is worthless based on just released disclosures..
In other words, Trump begged his followers for money with no ability to pay it back. The stock is likely to be worthless within 12 to 18 months. But he gets to keep the 3 BILLION (if) he can dump it on the open market. We don't even know the terms of the deal. he could be dumping them already. .
The man has the Midas touch for himself and the black plague for everyone involved.