Alternative Path

[gdl]

10 Year note yield is telling me I am dead wrong! It has declared that inflation is dead, and a recession is upon us. The big drop today telegraphs just that.
It ignores my understanding of the recent data. One of us is right. Since they have a long strong track record i must assume I am. Will know soon enough. The 10 year note has to immediately reverse back up or it drops hard and fast towards a 3% yield. Seems the GDP report is more important than the monthly one. I use the 70's as a path we should follow after a long 40-year cycle change.

Easy to determine which of us is right. We should have confirmation of a surge in costs and economic activity over the next 2 months. IF the bond market is wrong WATCH OUT ABOVE! It should mark one of the most dramatic upside moves it has ever seen before. My number one asset class that could reward those on the right side of the bet.

I base my observation on past cyclical changes and on common sense. Perhaps the 40-year cycle is no longer? Maybe. But common sense is harder to disprove. The anecdotal evidence on consumer spending for services is obvious to me. Is it just a one-off event and revert back? Highly unlikely since human nature makes decisions as a massive train would. Slow to start and build momentum.

My take is simple: Finally, INFLATION will be on everyone's scope. They will see it at first as an anomaly month. I have a starting point for take-off and that is January 2024. Let the games begin! I have been adamant and stubborn in my insistence INFLATION is here to stay. The BOND Market disagrees with me. That alone has me worried, but the winner will be seen soon enough.