Alternative Path

[gdl]

More technical observations: October 21 was the low of this current rally. Have 5 distinct waves where this is the 5th wave here. Fibonacci number 21 suggest we could have a truncated 5th on the 21st week of this drive up. Around 3/18. I suspect ONLY a correction would be seen then but it seems likely a break of some sort will occur there. Since most crashes happen in October or July I put small chance of a crash in March.

Bitcoin has hit the spike move of the past 2 times and quicky dropped back. 3/18 area also seems right for a correction in bitcoin.

But this is only a possible break point and as in the past these points are only consolidation resistance for a brief period. I don't have any predictability on strength of next reversal.

For now, we are on a smooth trajectory with little disruptions even in an intra-day basis. I suspect we would need to see some rather dramatic moves with equal dramatic recoveries before the real drop occurs.