Alternative Path

[gdl]

Market focus is on the PAST! Productivity surged last quarter as labor costs slowed. The fact that January is showing a significant economic expansion when they seemed more concerned with a recession tells you all you need to know. Every analyst, economist and pseudo economist is declaring that the consumer is about to roll over and the FED has NO CHOICE but to lower rates. how convenient is that assumption. it reinforces their extreme bias. The January data says something entirely different.

Seems to me there will NEVER be a rate cut in 2024. Seems to me the likelihood of a rate hick will increase month after month till alarm bells go off. Bottom line: The consumer sees today as a new normal and has adjusted nicely to the spike in inflation. Debt will be added, and everyone will just ignore it as they have in the past.

Watch as signs of inflation returning come in. We should find a way to ignore it for a while.

The MARKET should have a decent slide THIS MONTH! I see it already happening. I expect today NOT TO HOLD UP! But longer run will take more than silly data points on rising inflation to hold this sucker down.