full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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AGT: Has anyone been able to speak w/ mgt about timeframe for completing the $70million financing? In the PR about it last week, they mentioned they were waiting for bank committee approval. So... gotta wonder... do they have those approvals (or disapprovals) yet?
'peeker ... glad to see it bounce nicely off of .26 today ...
Sure, and I've got a nice second mortgage I'd love to sell you, and it's worth more than the trading volume x price of TRGD.
AGT: At least it's not ALL of the debentures being modified.
"The terms and conditions of the US$3,148,100 aggregate principal amount of Convertible Debentures and Warrants not owned by RAB have not been amended and remain unchanged."
'peeker
ps> Just don't ever let me read that AGT's investor relations has been turned over to Dick Biscuit (TRGD ceo, whose favorite saying is "2 more weeks").
AGT: Generosity in extending warrant exercise date (and cutting price in half) ... seems idiotic, I agree.
Perhaps there was some language in place that gave the debenture holders an option to renegotiate terms in the event of share value dilution.
In other words, the bank went back to AGT CEO and said, "Hey Buster, you can't just treat us like common shareholders." So AGT probably had a contractual obligation to offer good terms to the debenture holders.
The questions:
1. Is the CEO just another financial doofus?
2. Did he have to expect this to happen when he did the big financing deal (at lower pps) based on terms of the debentures?
3. Did the delisting review put the big financing deal at risk or delay closure?
At any rate we can be sure that lawyers and bankers are still in cahoots to get their own fat share of AGT value.
GORO off hard; SMC/CSM off hard.
Gold up $6 ... ????
Anyone know what's spooking GORO shareholders???
OT: nowayout, just curious, is she painting toenails or just picking her feet?
I guess the natural progression would be painting the nails before marriage; then the footpicking and nittpicking begin.
SMC: oops, Koz forgot to knock on wood and rub 2 nuts together for good luck....
John Carter explains gold trade (general trader interest):
http://www.tradethemarkets.com/public/3140.cfm
This site also provides access to lots of free videos showing how he does his daytrading work.
OT: MontyHigh, no; I'm in suburbs of Atlanta; just liked the photo after high school girlfriend visited Arenal a couple of weeks ago.
Regards,
Looking for some education/discussion about trading tactics that work well in bear markets, as I assume trading tactics for bull markets cannot just be flipped (short vs. long, etc.) for bear markets.
If anyone has seen good discussion of tactics for trading in bear markets, please share.
Thanks!
'peeker
Cu down 7& today.... sounds like hope (for quick economic rebound) doesn't spring eternal afterall. Keep hearing more and more talk about multiyear economic rec(depr)ession.
APG/AGT: Which listing requirement is a problem?
Price per share, number of shares outstanding, or something else?
AGT... the 50million warrants (priced at 50cents) that expire in a week would have been much better deal than this one. I assume the CEO panicked and felt like he had no negotiating power. The bankers's negotiators must have been smooth enough to convince the CEO that sex can always feel good, especially when gangraping common shareholders.
'peeker (disappointed at the terms, optimistic about the prospects for future, though not as optimistic as before)
12:53 NCST (a few more days to buy into this one?)
Nucryst Pharma approves $0.80 per share cash distribution to shareholders (1.14 -0.03)
The distribution which will total $14.7 million equals approximately 59% of NUCRYST's $25.0 million in cash and cash equivalents as of January 31, 2009. NUCRYST set a distribution payable date of February 25, 2009.
The Special Resolution was passed and February 17, 2009 was set as the record date for the distribution. The Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") has determined that mandatory special settlement rules will be applied and the common shares will commence trading ex-distribution on the TSX at the opening of the markets on February 17, 2009.
Under NASDAQ OMX rules, the shares will continue to trade with the distribution until its ex-distribution date of February 26, 2009.
Peter Schiff's rant on that link about buying for longterm is totally ludicrous. He appears to be pumping his company and acting like everyone in the world is stupid but him.
He's got severe diarrhea of the mouth ... way too much blah blah blah ... not worthy of all the self-importance he likes to project.
After listening to him pump his company, I'm no longer interested in anything he has to say. He was verrrrry critical of many of his clients who lost money following his advice.
In summary, this board is MUCH MORE VALUABLE THAN PETER SCHIFF.
GORO Bill Reid interview was excellent.
Congrats GORO owners...
My biggest concern:
We cannot control our fate, so all we can do is hope that heavy institutional (1/3) and mgt (1/3) ownership don't result in an early takedown of the stock, that is, buyout of our "retail" (1/3) shares at less than reasonable value.
'peeker
GORO Bill Reid interview was excellent.
Congrats GORO owners...
My biggest concern:
We cannot control our fate, so all we can do is hope that heavy institutional (1/3) and mgt (1/3) ownership don't result in an early takedown of the stock, that is, buyout of our "retail" (1/3) shares at less than reasonable value.
Do I expect that to happen? NO, and in the realm of possible concerns with a new gold operation, this exit would not be the end of the world. However, I'm greedy on GORO, because I want it to be the stock that forces me into full retirement and pays off my farm.
'peeker
Clarification please: AGT vs APG.to warrants ...
I am assuming the warrant holders may exercise warrants to buy APG.to stock at $.50CA (only $.05CA away).
Am I wrong?
'peeker
PS> Just wanna make sure nobody is misinterpreting the deal. That said, since the stock price was driven down so hard by the recent big seller, I assume that any new financing deal being worked out would be at a lower price than $.50CA per share, so I don't see any damage from starting the moonshot right now...
It's a shame TRGD is NOT in precious metals. They are a HOT AIR company.
CRM: Good for shorts!
CRM Salesforce.com: Expects an in-line quarter, but revenue guidance could be cut - RBC (27.60 +0.75)
RBC believes CRM should post in-line rev and EPS of 285.0 mln and $0.07, vs guidance of $284-$285 mln, and $0.06-$0.07. Deferred rev and booking will be key as prior FY10's revenue guidance of $1.35-$1.36 bln was based on those metrics. Firm thinks the qtr was driven by the strength of big deals negatively offset by increased bankruptcies, higher than expected unemployment, recession-driven attrition and lower IT budgets. Similar to last qtr, firm believes many customers may be reducing their subscriber count due to headcount reductions limiting subscriber growth. Likewise, firm continues to believe that more customers may shift from the standard 24 month contract to shorter contracts given the current economic backdrop. Firm believes FY10 rev guidance will likely be reduced vs Street at $1.33 bln.
IRBT IRobot receives $7.8 mln order from the U.S. Army (7.76 -0.28)
Co announces that it has received an order totaling $7.8 mln under its current xBot contract with the U.S. Army Program Executive Office for Simulation, Training, and Instrumentation.
11:51 POT Potash conf call summary: Goldman’s Sachs Ag Biotech Forum (88.08 -1.02)
Co says they think the prices of phosphate have bottomed... Co says their earnings story is based on potash and notes that 62% of gross margins came from potash last year. Over the next seven years, the co says they are looking to double potash volume and as they do this as volumes increase, taxes will come down on incremental volume. POT says the supply/demand picture is a lot tighter in potash compared to the other two nutrients. Co says there is less competition in potash and notes that building a Greenfield mine takes between 7-10 years. POT says that we have good grain prices and they expect that to continue and says that although variable margins for the farmer hit a record in 2007, they will still remain high... Co says potash fertilizer is in a catch-up phase after being under-used in many growing economies versus nitrogen... On pricing, co says they did sign six months contracts with Japan and Korea, which were contracted at potash prices that were $200/ton higher ON total capacity, co says they are working to get up to 18 mln tons of capacity in potash. In phosphate, the co says they industrial margins growth in this segment will be independent of what happens in the phosphate business. Co says if there is any fertilizer that could really provide a surprising upside, it's in nitrogen.
GORO: Guerilla change of ownership?
I've been thinking about GORO. The increase in ownership by Torquiville and Horchild effectively takes control of ownership away from GORO mgt. This could result in a change of direction down the road, for instance, the plan to pay out generous dividends would now be up to T and H.
Anybody else worried about GORO control quietly being taken away from mgt?
GORO current mgt (great team with big plans) still owns a large percent of issued stock, but certainly not able to compete with T and H combined decision power if Horchild chooses to buy all the stock that they are now authorized to purchase.
'peeker
GORO: Guerilla change of ownership?
I've been thinking about GORO. The increase in ownership by Torquiville and Horchild effectively takes control of ownership away from GORO mgt. This could result in a change of direction down the road, for instance, the plan to pay out generous dividends would now be up to T and H.
Anybody else worried about GORO control quietly being taken away from mgt?
GORO current mgt (great team with big plans) still owns a large percent of issued stock, but certainly not able to compete with T and H combined decision power if Horchild chooses to buy all the stock that they are now authorized to purchase.
'peeker
OIL.to TSX Delays Oilexco Delisting Date
Monday February 9, 2009, 3:04 pm EST
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Feb. 9, 2009) - Oilexco Incorporated (TSX:OIL - News; LSE:OIL - News; "Oilexco" or "the Company") has been advised by the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") that the TSX will allow the Company's shares to continue trading on the TSX until the close of business on February 17, 2009. The TSX agreed to delay the previously announced delisting date so that the Company's shares can continue to trade while Oilexco pursues a listing on a different stock exchange in Canada.
The TSX had announced on January 9, 2009 that Oilexco's shares would be delisted from trading on the TSX at the close of market on February 9, 2009. Since that announcement was made, the Company has been investigating several options that will allow its shares to continue trading in Canada and anticipates making a further announcement in the coming days.
Gold Drops on Smaller U.S. Economic Stimulus Plan; Silver Falls
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for the first time in four sessions on expectations the U.S. Congress will pass a smaller- than-expected stimulus package to revive the economy, easing the risk of accelerating inflation. Silver also declined.
The Senate is expected to vote tomorrow on a rescue plan of at least $780 billion. Gold climbed 5 percent in January on demand for a store of value amid a deteriorating economy and a surge in government spending. Investments in exchange-traded funds backed by bullion reached a record, and speculators last week raised bets the price would increase.
“Pressure should come from the Senate’s likely passage of a stimulus bill that is smaller in size than the one discussed last week,” said Tom Pawlicki, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Chicago. “Every day that the size of the stimulus grew last week, the gold market seemed to trade higher. That could unwind this week.”
Gold futures for April delivery fell $14.30, or 1.6 percent, to $900 an ounce at 11:38 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price climbed 2.4 percent in the previous three sessions.
Silver futures for March delivery declined 16.5 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $12.995 an ounce. Before today, silver gained 17 percent this year, while gold rose 3.4 percent.
The U.S. House of Representatives last month sent a stimulus package to the Senate valued at $819 billion. Last week, the Senate plan expanded to as much as $900 billion before some Republicans delayed passage of the bill.
Inflation Concerns
Gold had climbed on speculation that government spending will spark inflation. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, rose to a record 867.2 metric tons on Feb. 5.
Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 155,306 contracts on the Comex in the week ended Feb. 3, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Feb. 6. Net-long positions rose by 14,192 contracts, or 10 percent, from a week earlier.
The drop in gold prices may be a buying opportunity for some investors. Completion of the stimulus package that the Senate is weighing would raise the government’s commitment to solving the financial crisis to $9.7 trillion, according to Bloomberg data.
The Federal Reserve, Treasury Department and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation have lent or spent almost $3 trillion in the past two years and pledged to provide as much as $5.7 trillion more.
“Trillions of dollars of government spending is coming,” said Tom Hartmann, a commodity analyst at AltaVest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. “This injection in spending could spur inflation, and we’re seeing plenty of buying based on that thought.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at pnguyen@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: February 9, 2009 11:40 EST
AGTvolume slowed to a trickle after large downvolume spike at 10:22; we may see another rally or see more profit taking later today, but the action has dropped considerably for now.
MOS Helping KCL.to?
11:14 (MOS) Mosaic: Hearing upgraded to Buy at Canaccord Adams (48.39 +3.34)
APWR: A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. to Present at the Piper Jaffray 4th Annual Clean Technology and Renewables Conference in New York City on February 19, 2009
A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (Nasdaq: APWR) ("A-Power" or "the Company"), a leading provider of distributed power generation systems in China and a fast growing manufacturer of wind turbines, today announced that it will participate in the Piper Jaffray Fourth Annual Clean Technology and Renewables Conference ("the Piper Jaffray Conference") in New York City on Thursday, February 19, 2009. The event will take place at The Westin New York at Times Square (270 West 43rd St., 212-201-
08:56 VPHM ViroPharma halted - news pending (12.21)
Good point, and I have to admit I didn't even notice. The mind is a terrible thing to waste, and it's mostly linear in its interpretations of visual inputs.
exponentially yours,
'peeker
Go back and read the Barrons article that cl001 posted earlier. It's very interesting and predicts an extended period of currency devaluation with mild inflation.
Go to this link (credit to cl001), or just read it below:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=144&mn=16629&pt=msg&mid=6632156
________________________
A Must Read from Barron's Ray Dalio, Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates
By SANDRA WARD
AN INTERVIEW WITH RAY DALIO: This pro sees a long and painful depression.
NOBODY WAS BETTER PREPARED FOR THE GLOBAL market crash than clients of Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates and subscribers to its Daily Observations. Dalio, the chief investment officer and all-around guiding light of the global money-management company he founded more than 30 years ago, began sounding alarms in Barron's in the spring of 2007 about the dangers of excessive financial leverage. He counts among his clients world governments and central banks, as well as pension funds and endowments.
Barron's: I can't think of anyone who was earlier in describing the deleveraging and deflationary process that has been happening around the world.
Dalio: Let's call it a "D-process," which is different than a recession, and the only reason that people really don't understand this process is because it happens rarely. Everybody should, at this point, try to understand the depression process by reading about the Great Depression or the Latin American debt crisis or the Japanese experience so that it becomes part of their frame of reference. Most people didn't live through any of those experiences, and what they have gotten used to is the recession dynamic, and so they are quick to presume the recession dynamic. It is very clear to me that we are in a D-process.
Why are you hesitant to emphasize either the words depression or deflation? Why call it a D-process?
Both of those words have connotations associated with them that can confuse the fact that it is a process that people should try to understand.
You can describe a recession as an economic retraction which occurs when the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy normally to fight inflation. The cycle continues until the economy weakens enough to bring down the inflation rate, at which time the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy and produces an expansion. We can make it more complicated, but that is a basic simple description of what recessions are and what we have experienced through the post-World War II period. What you also need is a comparable understanding of what a D-process is and why it is different.
You have made the point that only by understanding the process can you combat the problem. Are you confident that we are doing what's essential to combat deflation and a depression?
The D-process is a disease of sorts that is going to run its course.
When I first started seeing the D-process and describing it, it was before it actually started to play out this way. But now you can ask yourself, OK, when was the last time bank stocks went down so much? When was the last time the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, exploded like it has? When was the last time interest rates went to zero, essentially, making monetary policy as we know it ineffective? When was the last time we had deflation?
The answers to those questions all point to times other than the U.S. post-World War II experience. This was the dynamic that occurred in Japan in the '90s, that occurred in Latin America in the '80s, and that occurred in the Great Depression in the '30s.
Basically what happens is that after a period of time, economies go through a long-term debt cycle -- a dynamic that is self-reinforcing, in which people finance their spending by borrowing and debts rise relative to incomes and, more accurately, debt-service payments rise relative to incomes. At cycle peaks, assets are bought on leverage at high-enough prices that the cash flows they produce aren't adequate to service the debt. The incomes aren't adequate to service the debt. Then begins the reversal process, and that becomes self-reinforcing, too. In the simplest sense, the country reaches the point when it needs a debt restructuring. General Motors is a metaphor for the United States.
As goes GM, so goes the nation?
The process of bankruptcy or restructuring is necessary to its viability. One way or another, General Motors has to be restructured so that it is a self-sustaining, economically viable entity that people want to lend to again.
This has happened in Latin America regularly. Emerging countries default, and then restructure. It is an essential process to get them economically healthy.
We will go through a giant debt-restructuring, because we either have to bring debt-service payments down so they are low relative to incomes -- the cash flows that are being produced to service them -- or we are going to have to raise incomes by printing a lot of money.
It isn't complicated. It is the same as all bankruptcies, but when it happens pervasively to a country, and the country has a lot of foreign debt denominated in its own currency, it is preferable to print money and devalue.
Isn't the process of restructuring under way in households and at corporations?
They are cutting costs to service the debt. But they haven't yet done much restructuring. Last year, 2008, was the year of price declines; 2009 and 2010 will be the years of bankruptcies and restructurings. Loans will be written down and assets will be sold. It will be a very difficult time. It is going to surprise a lot of people because many people figure it is bad but still expect, as in all past post-World War II periods, we will come out of it OK. A lot of difficult questions will be asked of policy makers. The government decision-making mechanism is going to be tested, because different people will have different points of view about what should be done.
What are you suggesting?
An example is the Federal Reserve, which has always been an autonomous institution with the freedom to act as it sees fit. Rep. Barney Frank [a Massachusetts Democrat and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee] is talking about examining the authority of the Federal Reserve, and that raises the specter of the government and Congress trying to run the Federal Reserve. Everybody will be second-guessing everybody else.
So where do things stand in the process of restructuring?
What the Federal Reserve has done and what the Treasury has done, by and large, is to take an existing debt and say they will own it or lend against it. But they haven't said they are going to write down the debt and cut debt payments each month. There has been little in the way of debt relief yet. Very, very few actual mortgages have been restructured. Very little corporate debt has been restructured.
The Federal Reserve, in particular, has done a number of successful things. The Federal Reserve went out and bought or lent against a lot of the debt. That has had the effect of reducing the risk of that debt defaulting, so that is good in a sense. And because the risk of default has gone down, it has forced the interest rate on the debt to go down, and that is good, too.
However, the reason it hasn't actually produced increased credit activity is because the debtors are still too indebted and not able to properly service the debt. Only when those debts are actually written down will we get to the point where we will have credit growth. There is a mortgage debt piece that will need to be restructured. There is a giant financial-sector piece -- banks and investment banks and whatever is left of the financial sector -- that will need to be restructured. There is a corporate piece that will need to be restructured, and then there is a commercial-real-estate piece that will need to be restructured.
Is a restructuring of the banks a starting point?
If you think that restructuring the banks is going to get lending going again and you don't restructure the other pieces -- the mortgage piece, the corporate piece, the real-estate piece -- you are wrong, because they need financially sound entities to lend to, and that won't happen until there are restructurings.
On the issue of the banks, ultimately we need banks because to produce credit we have to have banks. A lot of the banks aren't going to have money, and yet we can't just let them go to nothing; we have got to do something.
But the future of banking is going to be very, very different. The regulators have to decide how banks will operate. That means they will have to nationalize some in some form, but they are going to also have to decide who they protect: the bondholders or the depositors?
Nationalization is the most likely outcome?
There will be substantial nationalization of banks. It is going on now and it will continue. But the same question will be asked even after nationalization: What will happen to the pile of bad stuff?
Let's say we are going to end up with the good-bank/bad-bank concept. The government is going to put a lot of money in -- say $100 billion -- and going to get all the garbage at a leverage of, let's say, 10 to 1. They will have a trillion dollars, but a trillion dollars' worth of garbage. They still aren't marking it down. Does this give you comfort?
Then we have the remaining banks, many of which will be broke. The government will have to recapitalize them. The government will try to seek private money to go in with them, but I don't think they are going to come up with a lot of private money, not nearly the amount needed.
To the extent we are going to have nationalized banks, we will still have the question of how those banks behave. Does Congress say what they should do? Does Congress demand they lend to bad borrowers? There is a reason they aren't lending. So whose money is it, and who is protecting that money?
The biggest issue is that if you look at the borrowers, you don't want to lend to them. The basic problem is that the borrowers had too much debt when their incomes were higher and their asset values were higher. Now net worths have gone down.
Let me give you an example. Roughly speaking, most of commercial real estate and a good deal of private equity was bought on leverage of 3-to-1. Most of it is down by more than one-third, so therefore they have negative net worth. Most of them couldn't service their debt when the cash flows were up, and now the cash flows are a lot lower. If you shouldn't have lent to them before, how can you possibly lend to them now?
I guess I'm thinking of the examples of people and businesses with solid credit records who can't get banks to lend to them.
Those examples exist, but they aren't, by and large, the big picture. There are too many nonviable entities. Big pieces of the economy have to become somehow more viable. This isn't primarily about a lack of liquidity. There are certainly elements of that, but this is basically a structural issue. The '30s were very similar to this.
By the way, in the bear market from 1929 to the bottom, stocks declined 89%, with six rallies of returns of more than 20% -- and most of them produced renewed optimism. But what happened was that the economy continued to weaken with the debt problem. The Hoover administration had the equivalent of today's TARP [Troubled Asset Relief Program] in the Reconstruction Finance Corp. The stimulus program and tax cuts created more spending, and the budget deficit increased.
At the same time, countries around the world encountered a similar kind of thing. England went through then exactly what it is going through now. Just as now, countries couldn't get dollars because of the slowdown in exports, and there was a dollar shortage, as there is now. Efforts were directed at rekindling lending. But they did not rekindle lending. Eventually there were a lot of bankruptcies, which extinguished debt.
In the U.S., a Democratic administration replaced a Republican one and there was a major devaluation and reflation that marked the bottom of the Depression in March 1933.
Where is the U.S. and the rest of the world going to keep getting money to pay for these stimulus packages?
The Federal Reserve is going to have to print money. The deficits will be greater than the savings. So you will see the Federal Reserve buy long-term Treasury bonds, as it did in the Great Depression. We are in a position where that will eventually create a problem for currencies and drive assets to gold.
Are you a fan of gold?
Yes.
Have you always been?
No. Gold is horrible sometimes and great other times. But like any other asset class, everybody always should have a piece of it in their portfolio.
What about bonds? The conventional wisdom has it that bonds are the most overbought and most dangerous asset class right now.
Everything is timing. You print a lot of money, and then you have currency devaluation. The currency devaluation happens before bonds fall. Not much in the way of inflation is produced, because what you are doing actually is negating deflation. So, the first wave of currency depreciation will be very much like England in 1992, with its currency realignment, or the United States during the Great Depression, when they printed money and devalued the dollar a lot. Gold went up a whole lot and the bond market had a hiccup, and then long-term rates continued to decline because people still needed safety and liquidity. While the dollar is bad, it doesn't mean necessarily that the bond market is bad.
I can easily imagine at some point I'm going to hate bonds and want to be short bonds, but, for now, a portfolio that is a mixture of Treasury bonds and gold is going to be a very good portfolio, because I imagine gold could go up a whole lot and Treasury bonds won't go down a whole lot, at first.
Ideally, creditor countries that don't have dollar-debt problems are the place you want to be, like Japan. The Japanese economy will do horribly, too, but they don't have the problems that we have -- and they have surpluses. They can pull in their assets from abroad, which will support their currency, because they will want to become defensive. Other currencies will decline in relationship to the yen and in relationship to gold.
And China?
Now we have the delicate China question. That is a complicated, touchy question.
The reasons for China to hold dollar-denominated assets no longer exist, for the most part. However, the desire to have a weaker currency is everybody's desire in terms of stimulus. China recognizes that the exchange-rate peg is not as important as it was before, because the idea was to make its goods competitive in the world. Ultimately, they are going to have to go to a domestic-based economy. But they own too much in the way of dollar-denominated assets to get out, and it isn't clear exactly where they would go if they did get out. But they don't have to buy more. They are not going to continue to want to double down.
From the U.S. point of view, we want a devaluation. A devaluation gets your pricing in line. When there is a deflationary environment, you want your currency to go down. When you have a lot of foreign debt denominated in your currency, you want to create relief by having your currency go down. All major currency devaluations have triggered stock-market rallies throughout the world; one of the best ways to trigger a stock-market rally is to devalue your currency.
But there is a basic structural problem with China. Its per capita income is less than 10% of ours. We have to get our prices in line, and we are not going to do it by cutting our incomes to a level of Chinese incomes.
And they are not going to do it by having their per capita incomes coming in line with our per capita incomes. But they have to come closer together. The Chinese currency and assets are too cheap in dollar terms, so a devaluation of the dollar in relation to China's currency is likely, and will be an important step to our reflation and will make investments in China attractive.
You mentioned, too, that inflation is not as big a worry for you as it is for some. Could you elaborate?
A wave of currency devaluations and strong gold will serve to negate deflationary pressures, bringing inflation to a low, positive number rather than producing unacceptably high inflation -- and that will last for as far as I can see out, roughly about two years.
Given this outlook, what is your view on stocks?
Buying equities and taking on those risks in late 2009, or more likely 2010, will be a great move because equities will be much cheaper than now. It is going to be a buying opportunity of the century.
Thanks, Ray.
This chart shows BDI (Baltic Dry) turning up and CRB (Commodities) index bottoming(?):
Implies that an UPturn in CRB may follow UPturn in BDI? That said, there's no way to be sure how the chart looks a week after Washington's UPcoming actions.
This chart shows BDI (Baltic Dry) turning up and CRB (Commodities) index bottoming(?):
Implies that an UPturn in CRB may follow UPturn in BDI? That said, there's no way to be sure how the chart looks a week after Washington's UPcoming actions.
Gold downside risk this week?
OK, so folks everywhere have been selling their stock and taking money from under their mattresses to buy gold lately.
The big question this week is:
Will the passage of the big Stimulus Package and Fed announcements for fixing the banks be enough to make the market surge hard to the upside? If so, gold could dip back to mid-low 800's, which would take the gold jrs. down to let us grab some more SMC and AGT. Even if the Dow does surge this week, I assume it will fall back within a couple (except for those stocks most benefitting from the US Gov't spending, like the banks and infrastructure companies).
My hope is that a little dip in gold prices will not make the VMC Junior Miners sell their good gold jrs with great potential returns.
Scuse me; I wax on ... y'all have a goodun, ya heah!
'peeker
AGT: Good show!
No taxes to worry about for a few years.
I asked questions thru chat line but no answers:
1. Do you have plans to pay out a certain percent of profit in dividends?
2. You said stock should reflect a range of $1.60-1.80 (undiluted), so are you saying the range should be reduced by about a third to be "fully diluted"?
If I get answers after the fact, I'll let you know.
AGT CEO does a nice dog&pony ... BlackFox is his "shining star".
He says Huizopa in Mexico is another "Treasure of the Sierra Madres".
Expects bank financing of about $70million to be announced in the next few weeks.
I've been buying for my wife's IRA, so she's either gonna start being nice (when it goes up) or ask for a divorce (if it goes up too much).
Slide 30: Share Price is ”Extremely Under Valued”-Should Reflect a range of $1.60 -$1.80 (Undiluted)
Analyst coverage coming in next 1-3 months.
4Q08 results will not be great, but 2009 should be great!
Thanks, MSGI and c|001, got into the webcast and waiting for AGT CEO David Russell to rap the gavel now.
Hey, they're in Orlando. Keep an eye out for Goofey.
AGT CEO speaking at some conference this afternoon around 5 I think. Is there a live link to that meeting?
OT: just sharing a funny
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/chess_photo.png
... and one for Lentinman:
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/boyfriend.png