full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
DAAT: No details on mop and hunting lighter sales? The release was (like you said) a SMIDgeon underwhelming. I guess we have to be happy with a 50% move in the stock price but hold for the longer term (even though most of us are underwater on DAAT, and it turned longterm "ignored" a couple of BobWinYears ago).
Understatement: Furnishing commodity products to WMT does not insure strong growth.
'peeker
WEMU cc supplement:
Notes from someone on Yahoo message board:
- Q1 is slowest month with March being the only normal shipping month.
- Most customers don’t like to place orders for January deliver in solar business.
- February is a big holiday season in China, which means factory closings.
- March is the only normal shipping month.
- $80mm sales for 2009 with 3-digit revenue and earnings growth.
- Looking to enter the U.S. market with solar products by Q3 2009.
- Update PR with concrete plan coming soon.
- CFO and CEO in close communication with Nasdaq and believe that all conditions are all met. NASD to complete due diligence process soon in CEO’s opinion.
- Meeting with Nasdaq next week inWashington.
- Completing due diligence process.
- Completed relatively soon, but up to Nasdaq.
- Order base of $52 million backlog in 2009 for solar business plus, 37% increase in contract manufacturing business in April over April alone.
- Improvement in 18.5% Q1 gross margins – 20-21% range for improvement in gross margins, but subject to change on many factors.
- Anticipates positive cash flows by year-end.
- Cap-ex for 2009 forecast… can’t speculate.
- Presenter at World Expo Shanghai in 2010.
- 62% of business comes from solar in Q1 2009. No major concentration.
WEMU uplisting: CFO said they expect answer soon, and they believe they have met all uplisting reqs, but "couldn't speak for NASDAQ".
There were some good questions on the line; not sure if any analysts vs. broker reps vs. individial investors.
WEMU: Actually very impressed with CFO and the info they were presenting. It sounds like they have a good probability of strong growth but was amused by some of the running around in the background. They aren't sure how margins will play out as they continue their growth and conversion to in-house production this year, but they appear very sure of strong revenue growth rate for this year vs. last.
'peeker (just couldn't help myself with the w's vs. r's).
WEMU CC: (Pawaphwasing the CEO) WEMU is still waiting for wesponse to their appwication to twade on NASDAQ and expects wesponse soon. Meeting with them next week.
Generally they expect improved solar mkt in Q3 and Q4. They pwesent a vewy optimistic outlook and expect to initiate sales in US by Q3. Twansitioning fwom outsourcing to in-house pwoduction. They do not expect to be able to quite "double" gross margins.
They expect last half of 2009 to account for 3/4 of annual revenues. Expect over $90 million in total 2009 revenues.
(((WEMU is obviously a small operation w/ a highly optimistic outlook for future sales increases.)))
'peeker
Today KCL news updated their measured, indicated, and inferred tons of potash. Nice move today on increased volume. Should continue higher if mkt begins to think they can actually get financing to build out and extract the stuff. Also recently hired a big money guy that has ties to investors with deep pockets in SE Asia.
'peeker
WEMU: Although I wanted better eps in the earnings report this morning, I averaged down by adding 2000sh at 4.70 just in case CC at 4:15 today has anything else positive to add, particularly about NASDAQ.
Risks: (1) Low daily volume; (2) may not get NASDAQ approval for some unknown reason, (3) may trade on NASDAQ but limited float may limit tradeability.
'peeker
AGM: Doubled yesterday, hit $8.30ish. Some sold; some held. Sellers looking smarter today, as AGM is back to 5.75 now. I have to assume most sold most of their AGM.
Those technical fundamentalists who believe it must fill the gap would expect it to go under 5.50 eventually.
Surprising that there's so little chatter today about AGM.
On other fronts, my other little VMCs have been hit hard the last 2 days, especially gold stocks (CORO,AGT,CDE,BTO) and others (SMED,WEMU,NGA). Small stocks do much better in bull mkts than bears, so the weakness in small stocks reinforces the idea that the DOW/S&P weakness (and greater weakness in VMCs) will continue for awhile. I'm trying to figure out which of my small stocks to dump while I wait for the pullback to end.
JMHO.
'peeker
WEMU changing their strategy to direct manufacture. Also has been talking about their application to trade on NASDAQ; maybe we'll get a status on that in CC this afternoon.
CDE mentioned in Motley Fool article. Excerpt:
Not that long ago, the markets were questioning Coeur D'Alene Mines' financial footing, debasing its shares along with those of fellow silver and gold miners Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG). At the time, Coeur's CEO Dennis Wheeler assured Fool analyst Chris Barker that his company neither needed nor would pursue additional lines of credit, even as it was completing its capital investment in a two-year growth program that culminated in its Palmarejo mine in Mexico.
While the short sellers who controlled a slug of stock may have gloated for a few months late last year, Coeur D'Alene has since struck gold. Shares have nearly quadrupled off their November lows. The miner's first-quarter results were also rich: Net income improved 30%, to $6.1 million. Although its silver production rose markedly, revenue fell 13% since gold and silver prices were lower than they were a year ago. This year, Coeur's new mines are expected to lead to a 66% increase in silver production and an 85% increase in gold production.
CAPS member nibs61 took a look at those production expectation numbers:
This company has made all the right moves and their mines are producing at 66% growth rate for Silver and 85% for Gold. They are also the best at producing thier ounces at the lowest prices. 2009 will be a exceptional year for them and when inflation kicks in after all the goverment spending the demand for these presious metals is going to go through the roof.
Silver Jewelry Demand Fell to 10-Year Low Last Year, GFMS Says
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Nicholas Larkin
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Silver jewelry fabrication shrank to its lowest in a decade last year as the worst global economic slump since World War II crimped demand and mine production expanded to a record, researcher GFMS Ltd. said.
Jewelry demand fell 3.2 percent to 158.3 million ounces (4,924 metric tons), GFMS said in a report published by the Washington-based Silver Institute. Higher production in Bolivia and Russia and more output derived as a by-product of gold mining increased supply by 2.5 percent to 680.9 million ounces, a sixth consecutive gain, today’s report said.
After trading at a 28-year high of $21.355 an ounce in March 2008, the metal ended the year down 23 percent as investors liquidated their commodity holdings to raise cash and as slower economic growth trimmed demand. The metal rebounded 25 percent this year and GFMS expects the first quarter to “be by far the worst” for industrial demand.
“The hits really come from the economic downturn and the slump in global industrial production,” GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk said in an interview from New York. This year, “silver has managed to make some headway in spite of the fact that it’s been a very weak period for industrial demand.”
Silver averaged $14.97 an ounce last year, compared with $13.39 in 2007, and traded at $14.27 an ounce as of 10:56 a.m. in London. The metal will trade at $11.50 to $14.30 in the next three months, Klapwijk said.
“Silver in particular is a relatively small, narrow market,” he said. “If you get enough money coming into it, the price can really motor.”
Jewelry Demand
Italy and Thailand accounted for about 75 percent of the drop in jewelry demand because of lower exports. Demand rose in China, India and Russia.
Industrial demand slipped 1.4 percent to 447.2 million ounces and total demand was unchanged at 888.4 million ounces.
Silver output derived from gold mining jumped 26 percent to 76.7 million ounces last year, while production from copper mines dropped 7 percent to 159.6 million ounces, GFMS said. Global production is expected to “slide a bit” this year because of cutbacks in industrial-metal mining, Klapwijk said.
Total investment, including coins and exchange-traded products, climbed 79 percent to 115.1 million ounces in 2008.
Silver held in Barclays Plc’s iShares Silver Trust reached a record 8,413 tons last month and held 8,348.2 tons as of May 11, according to its Web site.
Photographic demand fell 16 percent to 104.8 million ounces because of growth in digital-camera sales.
“It’s probable that it’s going to start to bottom out at some point,” Klapwijk said. “Some areas have actually held up, like motion picture films.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net
FEED: AgFeed Industries announces entry into letter of intent to create joint venture to establish Pan Asian Pork Production Management Co using Western Technology (4.34)
Co announces that it has entered into a letter of intent to form a joint venture with M2P2, a leading US hog production and industry mgmt consulting company. Formed in 2003, M2P2 merges expertise in all phases of hog production, from birth to market, into one company. Today, M2P2 operates in six states throughout the U.S. and owns and operates 28,500 sows and finishes 1,200,000 market hogs annually. The joint venture will be a Pan Asian based production mgmt company focused on introducing the western model of modern production systems. The mgmt services offered will include facility planning, international staff training, science based genetics, bio security and interactive information systems to upgrade pork production systems throughout Asia. The joint venture will be majority owned by AgFeed. After the initial beta-site project the joint venture will offer the proven services to hog producers in China and Asia as well as international companies seeking a foothold in the Pan-Asian market where 65% of the world's hog production is consumed.
AGM has moved from Catatonicville to Momoland. Over 2.9million shares traded in first hour. I freaked and sold at $7.56. Good luck to those of you who are still holding. You are dealing with momoplayers now, not fundamentalists.
WadeAGMrock&roll, right on!!!!!!!!!!!!!
13:15 Engineering and Construction companies with exposure to stimulus plan are outpeforming the market - Friedman Billings
Friedman Billings says that on average, E&C cos with exposure to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act are up 21.6% year to date vs the building amd construction ETF, which is down 2.4%, and the S&P 500, which is up 2.9%. This confirms firm's thesis that cos with exposure to the Stimulus Act will outperform the broader market averages as investors choose to invest side by side with the U.S. government. Firm says beneficiaries include: Highway/bridge engineering and construction firms: URS Corp. (URS), Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA), Sterling Construction Company (STRL), Aecom Technology Corporation (ACM); Water/marine contractors to benefit: Orion Marine Group(OMGI), Tetra Tech (TTEK); and Electric transmission/alternative energy: Quanta Services (PWR), MYR Group (MYRG), MasTec (MTZ).
Bob, thanks for CDE cashflow perspective.
09:12 Gapping down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CPSL -21.4%, ALD -13.0%, AOB -12.3%, BPZ -10.7%, CPBY -10.3%, SLW -4.6%, HBC -3.8%, ENER -2.9%... M&A news: AGU -2.1% (Agrium increases offer for CF Industries to $40.00 in cash plus one Agrium share per CF Share)... Select financials pulling back: COF -8.1% (announces public offering of 56 mln shares of common stock), IRE -7.9%, BCS -6.4%, RBS -6.0%, AIG -4.5%, LYG -3.9%, KEY -3.9% (confirms capital raise of $750 million), BAC -3.5% (Bank of America selling CCB stake - WSJ), C -3.2% (MUFG may cancel purchase of Citi unit, according to report - WSJ), AZ -3.2%, MTU -2.5% (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has decided to purchase shares of common stock of Morgan Stanley in the public offering), JPM -2.3%, CS -2.1%, WFC -1.9% (confirms common stock offering, raises $8.6 bln)... Select oil/gas related names trading lower: SNP -6.7%, E -3.3%, BP -3.3%, RDS.A -2.6%, TOT -2.4%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: GOLD -4.0%, RTP -3.7%, BBL -3.6%, BHP -3.3%... Select shipping names trading lower premarket: DRYS -6.3%, EXM -5.8%, FRO -3.6%... Other news: AFL -3.6% (files for a senior debt/subordinated debt securities shelf offering for an indeterminate amount), STP -3.3% (Suntech Power to manufacture solar products in the U.S.)... Analyst comments: CBG -7.6% (trading lower in early trade; hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), MU -4.5% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CTV -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), LOW -2.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), NOK -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral at GC Research), VLO -2.6% (ticking lower in early trade; hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), HD -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), COST -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- Reuters), CLX -1.3% (downgraded to Underperform at Bernstein).
CDE beats by a penny; revenues light.
Coeur d'Alene Mines reports Q1 EPS of $0.01 vs $0.00 First Call consensus; revs $49.79 mln vs $52.79 mln First Call consensus (1.50)
OPAI Full Year 2008 Highlights look pretty good.
-- Net Revenue reached $65.2 million, up 64.2% vs. FY 2007
-- Gross profit totaled $12.6 million, up 90.1% vs. FY 2007
-- Net income was $8.8 million, up 116% vs. FY 2007
-- EPS Doubled to $0.20 per diluted share for FY 2008
CDE earnings Monday AM:
Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE) will report its first quarter 2009 results on Monday, May 11, 2009 before the New York Stock Exchange opens for trading. There will be a conference call that day at 1:00 p.m. Eastern
China rally too far too fassst; US, too?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={1115ACB6-8C1A-458B-A0C4-ABF47D10FA67}&siteid=rss
AGT's S-3 filing shows about 17 million shares may be sold by some RAB Special Situations Fund that owns about 21 million shares or so. It's actually voted by the probable beneficiary or the fund, specifically William Philip Seymour Richards, a citizen of the United Kingdom.
The thing I find most disconcerting about the content of the S-3 was the "reminder" that there are already a couple of hundred million shares outstanding PLUS options to buy another hundred million or so at an average price of $.31Canadian. In other words, AGT's operations will have to be superbly successful for shareholders to get remarkable returns from here. Of course I haven't tried to do all the math.
Also, the S-3 reminds me that any operational hiccups along the way could be very costly, especially if AGT gets behind in paying its creditors. Schedule for payments to creditors is included in the S-3.
AGT shareholders should read thru the S-3 as part of their DD (well, scan it at least to review the numbers AND risks).
'peeker
ROSE: Bought this smallcap energy producer today as a momo play. Now up 27% after receiving an upgrade yesterday from a minor inv house.
"Rosetta Resources Started At Overweight By Johnson Rice & Co "
AGT shareholder mtg yesterday, and no new rumors or PRs?
That's a surprise.
Ah well, I guess they'll feed us news as it becomes official for the mill, Gray Fox drill results, and gold pours.
Good luck, AGT-bugs!
Hey Bob, didn't realize you held CDE. Good 4u.
CDE still has 610 million shares outstanding w/ mktcap of $885 million, which makes their past cashflow seem less than stellar by comparison. Meanwhile, Monday they'll probably discuss their possible reverse split to stay NYSE-compliant along with all the things to be excited about. I'm also hoping they come out with a nice earnings that highlights their future expectations.
Alls I's sayin is there's been a strong recent runup in the price that could get trimmed before new boatloads of Ag and Au float out of Mexico to take CDE higher. I own some, so don't get me wrong; I want CDE to drive Alice to the moon, but the 6mo chart is showing it's had a nice run, so the future depends as much on the price of the commodities as on our good Pal Mareho.
That said, the 1yr chart shows a MUCH better view, that is, it bottomed hard in November and started its latest nice runup in March, more than doubling since then.
We've both got fingers crossed for Monday. Thanks for the data (particularly about their strong cash position) and the word on Forbes article (which I hadn't heard about). Did it mention that the Mexican banditos may also have the flu?
Onward and upward for CDE is fine with me ... I'm ready to add quickly on Monday if the news and CC sound super strong.
'peeker
OT: Wade, may the force be with you!
CDE is forecast to have made only a penny per share in latest qtr according to Wahoo, so I'm not sure why it's moved up so much lately.
Wade, on your comments about AGM, I know you love the stock and you have fully convinced yourself that it will go up with earnings next week. But with all due respects, anyone that sold today after a 5% drop is not looking more foolish than someone who held for a full 20% drop.
I'm learning to set trailing stops (mentally at least), which prevents such big losses. One can always buy a stock back at a lower price after a selloff.
AGT: One would think that if they had more good news to announce at the meeting, they'd mention it in a PR first.
Since we didn't see any news this AM, it appears that the last news release we had will be it for now, and future news releases will cover (a) the mill being fully operational in a few more days, (b) Grey Fox drilling results, and (c) gold to be poured around the end of the month, all having been previously announced.
'peeker
12:55 Floor Talk: Sell the news
What we're seeing this morning is a classic "sell the news" reaction to the release of the Stress Test results. Now, the official results won't be released until this afternoon, but as we stated yesterday the federal government has done a very good job of leaking the details to the press ahead of tonight's official release, which has allowed market participants to already price in what turned out to be much better than expected capital raise requirements. So it wasn't surprising that, since the banks and insurers have already squeezed higher over the past week as these details were leaked, these names quickly gave up their gap up this morning since there is very little uncertainty left as to what the official results will be tonight.
Yesterday we suggested that one of the signs that traders should watch for as a clue that the market's rally was losing steam was a shift in sentiment where instead of rallying on both good news and bad, we actually sold off in the face of good news. (The market is forward-looking, so after a long run when it starts to sell off on positive news, this implies that expectations for further good news in the coming days and weeks have already been largely priced in.) We mention this because this morning's aggressive gap up reversal following yesterday afternoon's leak of the better than expected Stress Test results fits this description. In addition, it's worth noting that today marks the last heavy day of earnings releases for what was undeniably a much better than expected Q1 earnings season, so the end of this week marks the winding-down of two of the three news-driven catalysts that have fueled positive sentiment in the market (the third one has been positive economic data). The sell-off in CSCO following its stronger than expected report and guidance is clear evidence that at least for the near-term, these beats have been largely priced in. The next key test of sentiment comes tomorrow, as the market's reaction to tomorrow morning's April Jobs Report data will be very telling as to where sentiment lies.
Now, it bears emphasizing that the aggressive sell-offs we've seen in the leading names (Financials, Tech, Retail) over the past two sessions on the eve of the Stress Test results and the end of earnings season are merely clues that the market could be due for a pause. The bulls are in control until proven otherwise, and the shorts seem to be incapable of stepping aside for even one day. So in short, the past two sessions inject a note of caution into what was otherwise a one-way market, but these clues are by no means the definitive signs of a top that many have been predicting.
I agree; the ones who made out today were selling the fade.
Lately I've been trading a lot but trying not to hold too much overnite (except my gold stocks, in which I'm heavily overweight). Certainly limits risk, though I wish I'd owned some financials last nite and sold at the open.
Trading for a living is a tough game.
Good luck to all you guys,
'peeker
OK, hmmm, now what? The financials have had their day and the long-awaited good news on stress tests is out. They seem to have no more major good news ahead, so there is selling on the news today.
Since financials have been THE market leaders, does that mean everything drifts lower from here or what? I mean the economy is still not thriving, jobless claims are still high, consumers are not rich and ready to spend, so what could possibly provide the next catalyst for continuing a bull market?
I smell a bear in the woods.
OT: Sorry, hic, I just returned from a pub crawl.
http://www.thebar.com/en-us/Pages/default.aspx
Still holding half my POEFF.pk and CNEH.ob and all my AGT and wishin I was still holdin AGM and APWR. Nuts, foiled again, hic!
SCOM began trading as SMED on NASDAQ this morning but only 200sh traded so far. I guess they forgot to request a market maker.
WEMU also trying to trade on Nasdaq soon. Down today on small volume (always has small volume).
Koz, I love a visionary (except when he takes the elevator).
CDE reports Monday before the mkt open w/ cc in the afternoon.
I own some and am wondering whether to unload before earnings. CDE has had a nice runup with gold's recent bounce but has begun to drift lower today (with other PM miners).
Does anyone have any idea what good news to expect or bad news to look out for?
'peeker
Koz: CNEH wudda benna betta tablepounder when you did for NOG, but both have moved too far to buy here, IMHO.
I sold haff my CNEH yesterday and day before after holding it waaaay too long on the waaaay down.
'peeker
Mosaic pushes to fresh highs on increased volume; strength attributed to chatter that BHP could be interested in Cargill's stake in co (45.62 +1.40)
Note: Cargill owns ~64% of MOS
'peekergram: Let's go KCL.v/KCLOF.pk
Procede with caution:
Swing Trader: Turnaround Tuesday Potential After Climactic Buying?
New money flow comes pouring into the market on Monday, launching the major indices aggressively higher during the first hour. A midday chop sideways eventually set up another round of buying in the afternoon with a strong squeeze higher into the close. Dow +214, SPX +29, Nasdaq +44, Russell +20. The action was led by strength among Financials XLF +10% (Banks BKX +14%, Reits +8%), Basic Materials XLB +5.6%, Semis SOX +5.5%, Energy XLE +4%, Industrials XLI +3.25%, Discretionary XLY +3.25%, Chemicals +4.4%, and Gold XAU +6.2%. Gold staged a rally after a 5-day pullback, closing back above the $900-level. Crude extended its climb back up to the top of its 5-week range near $54/55 a barrel. The US Dollar continues to sink from its Rising Wedge pattern.
Looking at the SPX chart below, we have a Wide Range bar thrusting higher above its Upper Daily Bollinger Band (895) to challenge its Upper Rising Channel line. All the major indices managed to rally in the afternoon, with a push higher into the close, finishing at fresh multi-month highs. The SPX managed to close above its 2008 close of 903, a key target that puts the SPX in "positive" territory year to date. The next levels of interest would be the January closing high and the high itself of 934/943.
Sentiment and technical indicators are showing signs of near-term "overbought" conditions, suggesting little to no edge to be initiating new Swing positions. RSI-5 appears to have broken its Negative Divergence which was in effect the last few weeks (a bullish sign), but has become near-term "overbought" in doing so. TRIN was very strong with a reading around the low 0.30's all session long. This aggressive buying pressure could be an indication of "climactic" or "exhaustive" buying given the +35% gain off the March low. The A/D lines are also near-term overbought suggesting a pending correction is looming.
From a timing perspective, it's significant to note that Tuesday marks Day 41 of this rally off the March low, which has "symmetry" with the first quarter decline as the time from the early January high to the March low was also 41 days. The 903 level was also a significant Gann target if challenged here around May 1.
Bottom line is the uptrend remains intact so you can't ignore the underlying bids on weakness that have consistently been present through the last few weeks. One of the first signs to watch for these bids to have disappear would be a breakdown on a 60 min chart uptrend line (shown below). The uptrend has held very well as of late, but a breach below it, could suggest the bid is no longer there. Another interesting note, is that on Monday's late-day rally, the Sellers basically "gave up" allowing for a strong "push" higher into the close. That "Seller Submission" adds further to the "Climactic Buying" theory mentioned above, almost a "Buyer's Complacency" if you would. However, price action remains our #1 guide, so until then be sure to treat Shorts as "counter-trend" trades demanding the utmost respect of risk control.
Credit Watch Negative:
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its ratings on 22 U.S. large complex and regional banks and one thrift, as well as their related entities, on CreditWatch with negative implications. The CreditWatch placements relate to an ongoing industry review. The analysis of industry fundamentals, with a focus on the capitalization of the identified companies in the context of the expected level of losses during the next two years, suggests that the likelihood of negative rating actions has increased. These rating actions identify companies that S&P believes has at least a one-in-two likelihood of a one-notch or multiple-rating downgrade within 90 days. That said, S&P believes that most rated institutions will be able to earn their way out of these credit losses during the cycle. (AF, ASBC, BAC, BBT, C, CMA, COF, CRBC, FINN, FITB, HBAN, KEY, RF, SNV, SUSQ, TSFG, USB, WBS, WL, WTNY)