full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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cl001, have an enjoyable getaway, but before you hit the road ...
Weren't U just a little disappointed by the drill results for Phase1 drilling at Grey Fox? I got the feeling they will really need Phase2 to come in with higher Au values to build the company mktcap and extend Black/GreyFox mine life.
Regards,
'peeker
PS> Oh, try not to be too negative on AGT; you could cause it to crash while you and KIK are both on vacation (hopefully not together) ...
Gold Declines in London Trading After U.S. Dollar Strengthens
By Nicholas Larkin
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold declined for a third day in London as a stronger dollar reduced demand for the metal as an alternative investment.
The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, rose as much as 0.7 percent before a Group of Eight meeting of finance ministers at which Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner may say the U.S. favors a strong dollar. Gold typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency.
“The dollar is going to put a little bit of pressure on gold,” Bernard Sin, the head of currency and metals trading at Swiss refiner MKS Finance SA, said by phone from Geneva. “The dollar may rebound in the short term, but longer term it’s going to continue to weaken.”
Bullion for immediate delivery lost $4.39, or 0.5 percent, to $949.56 an ounce by 11:14 a.m. in London. August gold futures slipped 1.2 percent to $950.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.
The metal rose to $950 in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell production, from $947.50 at yesterday’s afternoon fixing. Spot prices, down 0.6 percent this week, are heading for a second weekly decline.
“It’s getting increasingly tough to hold on to its gains beyond $965-966 levels,” Pradeep Unni, an analyst at Richcomm Global Services in Dubai, said in a note. “Repeated failures to break and hold above this zone has triggered sell offs.”
Bullion may average $825 an ounce next year, compared with a previous forecast of $950, BNP Paribas said in a report dated yesterday. The bank raised its 2009 estimate to $925, from $900.
‘Biggest Risk’
“We believe that deflation rather than inflation is the biggest risk facing the global economy in the coming months,” London-based analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay said in the report. Still, “safe-haven demand should remain strong throughout this period as the road to recovery should be long and bumpy.”
Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, was unchanged for a fourth day at 1,132.15 metric tons yesterday, the company’s Web site showed.
Silver for immediate delivery in London lost 1.7 percent to $15.14 an ounce. Platinum fell 1 percent to $1,255.25 an ounce, and palladium was 0.3 percent lower at $255.63 an ounce.
Silver held in ETF Securities Ltd.’s exchange-traded commodities rose to a record 20.223 million ounces yesterday, from 20.194 million ounces the day before, according to data on the company’s Web site. Palladium assets gained to an all-time high 309,420 ounces, from 308,420 ounces.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net
FEED: How sensitive to world hog prices vs. insulated by mostly-Chinese price-controlled market?
FEED has done well lately but fairly volatile day-to-day and off today.
Hogs Gain on Speculation Pork Demand Will Rise by Whitney McFerron
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Hog futures rose the most in a month on speculation that demand for pork will increase as wholesale prices for the meat approach the lowest since early May. Cattle also gained.
Wholesale pork slid 1.6 percent yesterday to 55.7 cents a pound, near the 55.2 cents reached on June 3, the lowest price in a month, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Low wholesale costs may spur retailers to offer discounts on pork, making it more attractive to consumers, said David Kruse, a commodity trading adviser at CommStock Investments Inc.
“We are getting these pork prices down to a point where they represent a value to the consumer,” Kruse said in a telephone interview from Royal, Iowa. “We’re seeing good, top- quality Iowa chops at $1.88 a pound. That’s cheaper than hamburger, and that ultimately will have an impact.”
Hog futures for August settlement rose 0.675 cent, or 1.1 percent, to 59.95 cents a pound at 10:12 a.m. on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would be the biggest gain for a most-active contract since May 12. Before today, hog prices fell 20 percent in the past year.
Wholesale pork prices are down 26 percent in the past year, as the recession and a swine flu outbreak curbed demand for U.S. exports and sapped domestic purchases.
To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney McFerron in Chicago at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net.
NUS.to/NUSMF.pk: Anybody still own this long-term metals play on seafloor mining?
Nautilus Confirms High Grades in Phase One of 2009 Tongan Exploration
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - June 11, 2009) - Nautilus Minerals Inc. (TSX:NUS - News; AIM:NUS) (the "Company" or "Nautilus") announces that it has received high grade copper, gold, zinc and silver assays with highest assay results in respect of each element across all the samples tested of 12.6% Cu, 34.0 g/t Au, 60.9% Zn and 185 g/t Ag. The assay results relate to the samples taken during the first phase of its 2009 target generation program in Tonga, on 100% owned Nautilus prospecting licences (see Figures 1 and 2). The second phase of the Tongan program is currently underway.
Stephen Rogers, Nautilus' CEO, commented: "We are excited about the high grades of these assay results. In particular, the very high gold and silver grades are impressive. The delineation of more "precious metal" rich, high grade Seafloor Massive Sulphide ("SMS") systems further highlights the prospectivity of our large tenement package in Tonga. We have commenced the second phase of our 2009 Tongan exploration program and will remain on the water until the end of June. We look forward to receiving the results of this program."
Twenty samples of SMS material were collected from Tahi Moana 7 and FRSC02 prospects, reported previously (www.nautilusminerals.com/s/Media-NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=350274), during phase one of the 2009 Tongan exploration program. Assay results (see Table 1) confirm the two systems contain significant precious metals (gold and silver), as well as high grade copper and/or zinc mineralisation.
Phase two of the 2009 Tongan exploration program commenced on Saturday May 30, 2009. It comprises approximately 27 days of water column sampling, bathymetric surveying, and rock sampling. The program, like phase one, is being undertaken in collaboration with Australian National University ("ANU") and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ("CSIRO"), on board the Marine National Facility research vessel Southern Surveyor (see Figure 3). Work is being completed under the supervision of ANU's Professor Richard Arculus, with input from CSIRO and Nautilus. Phase one of the program delineated 12 anomalies, and was reported previously.
Spoke to GORO this AM.
Bill Reid said things are coming along very nicely, but still no permit and cannot say when permit will be approved, when mill construction will be completed or when mill ops will begin. They intend to hire about 100pp for the mill (many local hires plus a few professionals from elsewhere). Mining ops are contracted.
What about PP? Doesn't know if GORO available cash in the bank will dwindle to the point that they must do an additional small PP.
Didn't really disclose anything earthshattering or new. IMHO Bill Reid always sounds optimistic, so one never knows what snags may pop up on the way to GORO's $ucce$$.
'peeker
11:18 AUY: Davenport raises their tgt to $15 from $13 as the firm raises their short and medium-term gold price forecast to $940/oz in 09 and 1,025/oz in '10. In the firm's view the massive amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus that will be injected into the global economy over the next few years should create inflationary pressures and they believe that these inflationary pressures should support higher gold prices. The firm believes that these higher gold prices should lead to higher earnings for AUY, which should be at least partially offset by lower production.
WEMU: Focus of the 3 new directors appears to be experience pertinent to being an effective "audit committee". It would be interesting to catch the CFO on the phone and try to get an explanation for the new directors and status of Nasdaq approval for uplisting.
Meanwhile, hopefully this BOD announcement won't hurt their stock price due to concern over potential issures such as internal audits and recently reported financial results.
'peeker
Something scary:
Beggars have no bargaining power.
GORO down 2 days in a row. Now at 4.80 -.25 (-5%)
Grrr x2, I guess.
The construction has taken longer than expected, and active investors have moved to other mining companies that are starting ops or increasing proven reserves, thus moving up.
GORO appears a safe bet longer term, but probably won't get back over $6 till they finish construction, get the pit mining permit, start mining and milling ops, and pour some gold.
'peeker
Capstone Reports Significant Increase in Copper-Gold Mineral Resources at Minto Mine, Yukon
On Tuesday June 9, 2009, 7:15 am EDT
<< 32% Increase in Contained Copper in the M&I Classes Provides Basis for Phase IV Expansion >>
VANCOUVER, June 9 /CNW/ - Capstone Mining Corporation (CS: TSX) today announced the results of National Instrument 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimates for its high grade Minto copper-gold mine in Yukon, Canada. New mineral resource estimates were completed for the combined Area 2/Area 118 deposit, the Ridgetop deposit and the Minto North deposit and are current to today's date, while mineral resources and mineral reserves for the Minto Main deposit (current open pit) were adjusted to reflect mining activity up to December 31, 2008. These updated mineral resource estimates include results from almost all of the drilling conducted up to the end of April 2009, and will form the basis of Capstone's Phase IV expansion study for the Minto Mine.
Details at: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Capstone-Reports-Significant-cnw-15474303.html?.v=1
Don Coxe's June INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS (thanks to Kipp)
1. The current US equity rally shows signs of needing a summer rest. But
it will not fall back into the Slough of Despond. This is a cyclical bull
market within a structural bear market—until proven otherwise. What it
most needs now is a lift from the bank stocks—and from sharply rising
volume on days the market rises sharply, and from falling volume when
it falls. It has been getting none of the above.
2. Remain overweighted in the commodity stocks, and remain diversifi ed
among the four commodity groups. Leadership will rotate from week-toweek,
but all four groups are showing good strength relative to market
indices.
3. We hope we are right that gold-related investments will be rewarding, but
will likely underperform other commodity-related investments in the next
few months. That means the global economic recovery was proceeding
without setting off infl ationary sparks. Thereafter, concerns about the
dollar and the effects of the all-out refl ation programs will once again
boost demand for gold.
4. The dollar has attracted fundamental criticism from one of its largest
holders—the Chinese. They have also transformed their Treasury holdings
by buying bills and selling notes and are well on their way to becoming
a demand depositor at the Fed. By forgoing nearly all the interest they
could earn, they are telling investors that we should be concerned about
the dollar. Believe those who back their bets against the buck so big.
5. The Canadian dollar remains undervalued relative to the greenback.
Canadian companies should emulate Teck: borrow, where possible in US
dollars. Canadian equity investors should shop at home fi rst, then look
for US bargains.
6. Keep bond durations low. We have entered a bond bear market at a time
of a declining dollar. That has historically been a lethal combination.
7. Do not join the all-out bears on America. The American economy is more
resilient than the gloomsters believe. It can even survive the wounds
inflicted on it by the Wall Street-Fannie-Freddie-Frank follies—and
the Pelosi-Obama programs. Nevertheless, there are now some better
investment alternatives elsewhere—across the Pacifi c and above the 49th
Parallel.
CNOA correcting back toward .40 today. Watching for entry point in the .30s.
PRIMW undervalued again. Just sold mine as PRIM popped over $7
MFRI: Also the big job (India pipeline) was 95% complete at end of March so that revenue is over already. They must have gotten paid a large milestone payment that boosted the revs/eps
Clean Coal: Myth or Reality?
http://fora.tv/2009/04/28/Clean_Coal_Myth_or_Reality
TSTA has almost doubled since announcing earnings in mid-May, so buying now would be like crashing the party a little late. Maybe it would be great and you'd have a great time, or you could wake up tomorrow like the coyote, needing to gnaw your arm off to escape.
Only point is that though trends look great, there could be better times to buy lower (after today's little pop). Also TSTA is thinly traded.
'peeker ...
GORO rise, IMHO, is due more to site progress w/ low outstanding shares (and POG, to a lesser degree) since this company is not yet in production (should begin pouring gold in 3-6mo).
I've held most (about 80%) of my GORO since I figure they could move quickly to the upside. Also, I've got too much AGT which has stalled for now, so no reason to move from GORO to -> AGT / OGC / CDE. It's always hard to time the BEST PLACE to have
After reviewing the photos of GORO's upscale accommodations at the mining site, it's obvious GORO mgt plans to spend some quality time on-site as production kicks in later this year.
OT: Koz, catch a hint, bubba. If you don't stop trying to be the oddest ogg in the house, they'll send you to a home
This latest BrooHaHa reminds me of Ken Kesey's 1962 classic "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest". Jack Nicholson played the Koz in the movie. Late in the movie, after the survey, he ended up with a lobotomy.
Now take your medicine and sleep quiiiiietly.
C'1, you seem to be looking for someone's leg to pee on because PM stocks had a bad day. Your message sounds more like what Idi Amin (or Dick Cheney) would do rather than Abraham Lincoln. I mean it is grossly biased and undemocratic to keep a survey board open until you can convince the crowd to turn on someone.
'peeker
OT: PM stocks all goin' down today. In fact there's so much goin' down goin' on, it reminds me of Marilyn Chambers.
'peeker
Pre-Mkt pops!
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: APSG +11.8%, TSRA +11.7% (also enters into technology license agreement with Motorola), BOBE +9.3%, FE +6.0%, JOYG +1.0%... M&A news: DDUP +3.1% (NetApp raises DDUP acquisition offer to $30/share in cash and stock)... Other news: TIVO +46.1% (confirms Court rejected EchoStar's "attempted workaround claim" regarding the TiVo patent), PPHM +25.0% (highlights "promising early data" from its three Phase II bavituximab cancer trials), SAY +17.8% (SEBI OKs Tech Mahindra open offer - WSJ), SGY +11.9% (announces deepwater discovery on Pyrenees Prospect), CTIC +11.6% (announces that patients with cancer of the lower esophagus had evidence of a high pathological complete response rate when given OPAXIO), IPAS +11.4% (to return up to $40 mln of capital to stockholders), PMI +6.6% (The PMI Group ratings raised by Standard & Poor's), CHLN +6.1% (still checking), HEB +4.4% (continued momentum from yesterday's 25%+surge higher)... Analyst comments: AAI +7.0% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), PLT +3.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), EBAY +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Collins Stewart).
EGO: Stock exchange of new EGO shares for SGS via GFI ... ?
Co announces it has entered into an agreement to acquire 57.9 mln shares of Sino Gold Mining Ltd (ASX: SGX) (representing approx 19.9% of the issued and outstanding shares of Sino Gold) from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) in a private transaction in exchange for Eldorado shares. The terms of the agreement between Eldorado and Gold Fields are: Eldorado will acquire 57,968,029 Sino Gold shares from Gold Fields. The transaction to be settled through the issuance to Gold Fields of 27,824,654 shares of Eldorado by way of a private placement.
Added some PRIMW (PRIM $5 warrants) at $1.40-$1.51 today.
OT: He can dance, too, if you light the matches between his pawtoes.
It's easy to be in a good mood when things are working.
'peeker
Basserdan, excellent point about Ag uses, so I'm holding CDE tight for now.
'peeker
Would AGT consider rev split like the 1:10 split that CDE just did? Seems like they'd benefit in the long run.
With no other big news on the horizon for AGT, it's suddenly looking like it may take a few months of solid operations and gold pours before the street wants to raise the price of AGT. Of course continuing gold price increase also should help.
For instance, August gold ended today higher by $4 to $984.00, July silver finished up 23.5 cents to $15.97 (which makes CDE price continue to look good).
'peeker
Has anyone estimated Free Cash Flow for AGT assuming they stay operational for the remainder of the yr and increase thruput beginning in July as planned?
I assume the following formula could be used
(though some estimates would be difficult as of right now):
When valuing the operations of a firm using a discounted cash flow model, the operating cash flow is needed. This operating cash flow also is called the unlevered free cash flow (UFCF). The term "free cash flow" is used because this cash is free to be paid back to the suppliers of capital.
Calculating Free Cash Flow
For a particular year, the unlevered free cash flow is calculated as follows:
1. Start with the annual sales and subtract cash costs and depreciation to calculate the earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). The EBIT also is referred to as the operating income and represents the pre-tax earnings without regard to how the business is financed.
2. Calculate the earnings before interest and after tax (EBIAT) by multiplying the EBIT by one minus the tax rate. Note that the EBIAT represents the after-tax earnings of the firm as if it were financed entirely with equity capital.
3. To arrive at the UFCF, add the depreciation expense back to the EBIAT, and subtract capital expenditures (CAPEX) that were not charged against earnings and subtract any investments in net working capital (NWC).
The free cash flow calculation in equation form:
Operating Income (EBIT) = Revenues – Cash Costs – Depreciation Expense
EBIAT = EBIT – Taxes, where Taxes = (tax rate)(EBIT)
UFCF = EBIAT + Depreciation Expense – CAPEX – Increase in NWC
AGT ... great news, but not a day to chase it ... could dip a bit today w/ selling on the news after a nice runup on the rumor.
'peeker
OT: No reason to belabor the point, but I do have any number of reasons to question his character.
Reason#1: Lies about financials
Reason#2: Lies about when San Ramon would be operational
Reason#3: No TRGD partners stay for the longterm
Reason#4: Using the term 2 weeks as if it pertained to the same calendar that everybody else in the worls uses
Reason#5: Lies of omission (not providing the details that all stockholders deserve) such as in today's PR
.
.
.
Reason#ANY: Lies about financials (repeated here just to be redundant)
Now excuse me as I go find another rock to crawl under...
'peeker
Dick Biscuit could explain it, but he won't.
IMHO, given history, there appears to be a fox in the henhouse, a rrat in the corncrib, and a few mangey dogs soliciting clients for this cathouse.
bbotcs, there's no reason to sell you highly liquid shares until the market starts to fall.
On the other hand, if you have thinly traded stocks (many of the VMCs we talk about here, like CNEH, LPIH, WEMU), those are the ones to reduce (while the bulls are running) if you think a nasty bear of a storm is brewing in the markets.
'peeker
They didn't even state total dollars received or what they got per restricted share, did they? In other words, I assume they discounted their PZG shares dramatically/drastically/desperately.
The news release seems somewhere between obscure/misleading and downright dishonest. TRGD obviously needed cash ASAP to continue paying the high cost of setup for operations at Don Ramon.
Someone last week guessed that they would have to sell their PZG stake to pay for Don Ramon. IMHO PZG shareholders benefit more than TRGD shareholders from this deal.
'peeker
CS.to life of mine update today:
Excerpt:
"The updated mineral reserve estimate for the Cozamin Mine supports an approximately eight year mine life, a significant increase over that previously reported, even after a significant increase in mill throughput resulting from the completion of the Phase III mill expansion," said Stephen P. Quin, President & COO of Capstone. "The new life-of-mine plan for the Cozamin Mine demonstrates robust economic and a net present value of US$172 million at an 8% discount rate, assuming approximately current metal prices and silver prices capped at US$4 per ounce in accordance with Capstone's silver stream agreement. A number of upside opportunities have been identified that could result in a higher annualized rate of production, which we are working to crystallize."
KCL.to ... ouch ... big volume selloff came out of nowhere today. Anyone know if there's any news taking this one down?
'peeker
10:47 Weakness in the dollar spurs rally in commodities and commodity related stocks
Continued weakness in the dollar is aiding the commodity complex today, sending precious metals and energy stocks higher in early trading. The recent strength in the commodities markets has been helped by a sustained move lower in the dollar and a myriad of factors today are pushing the dollar index down to its lowest level since December (currently -1.01 at 79.51). Foreign currencies have improved vs. the dollar today following a batch of positive economic data overseas, including better than expected U.K. housing price data, better than expected G.D.P in India, and better than expected Japan factory output. This weakness, in turn, has been a rallying point for numerous commodities including crude oil, nat gas, gold and silver. Crude oil ($65.97 +$0.89) is on pace for its largest monthly gain in numerous years, gold ($979.00 +$17.50) is making a run back towards the $1000 mark, and silver ($15.565 +$0.405) is trading at its best levels since Aug of last year. Commodity related stocks are benefiting from the run in commodities as well. Today, precious metals ETFs GLD (+2%) and SLV (+2.5%) are once again extending their recent rallies and now higher by ~10% and ~25% in the month of May. Precious metal related stocks are also seeing strength: GOLD +3.5%, GFI +5.3%, AUY +5.7%, AU +4.9%, NEM +3.3%, IAG +4.4%, ABX +4%, KGC +4.4%, GG +4.2%, NG +7.6%, SLW +6.1%, SSRI +5.3%, EXK +4.3%, MVG +5.8%... The energy ETFs OIH (+2.3%) and XNG (+1.5%) are also extending recent moves, and are higher by ~17% and ~13% respectively. Energy related names seeing strength on crude/nat gas' move are: IMO +3.1%, MRO +2.3%, TOT +3.4%, ATPG +3.7%, CHK +2.4%, CRZO +2.8%, DVN +2.2%, FST +2.8%, NBL +2.8%, OXY +3.2%, PXD +2.8%, REM +%, SGY +6.5%, TMR +2.3%, WTI +6%, XEC +3.3%, AHD +5.1%, CHK +2.4%, DBLE +4.1%, FPP +6.8%, GMET +7.6%, LINE +3%, NGAS +%, NGS +3.3%.
May be more appropriate to refer to TRGD as the Fool's Gold stock!!!
AGM selling portfolio of ag-loans to Rabobank:
The Delta Farm Press reports that Rabobank has purchased a $354 mln portfolio of agricultural loans from the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac). The acquisition was conducted by two of Rabobank Group's U.S. subsidiaries: Rabo AgriFinance, the U.S. agricultural finance arm, and Rabobank, N.A., the California community bank. "Rabobank's purchase of this portfolio from Farmer Mac is a clear demonstration of our continued commitment to invest in American agriculture and expand our business," said John Ryan, president and CEO for Rabo AgriFinance. "As a part of the Rabobank Group, we have the resources and flexibility to complete this acquisition, while providing Farmer Mac with added liquidity... The portfolio purchased by Rabobank includes approximately 1,000 agricultural loans of various sizes and terms, originated by many different lenders, including Rabobank. The borrowers operate in all major sectors of agriculture and are located throughout the entire United States.
Great!!! If OGC.ax is trading at 1.215AUD, then OCANF.pk should be worth around 0.97USD. That's Gnarly Grooooooovin', cl001-Dude!!!
It will be interesting to see if the US pinksheet trades catch up to Aussies today or continue to lag.
'peeker
PRIMW: Looked and saw you guys have a following (other than me). Somebody trying to pay 1.45 for 5000sh PRIMW now. Does look like good value if PRIM can stay at this level, but they were trading flat for a long time before PRIM popped higher on the 27th of May. Probably a good idea to hold off a couple of days to make sure PRIM can maintain above 5.50.