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Hi Guys,
Cresus2019 in answer to your question. There are a few important points to make.
Mike has stated in a quarterly report web chat that his near term goal is to move NGW sales from bulk flower 90% and 10% packaged weed products. Into 10% bulk flower and 90% packaged weed products.
As this business goal is put into place over the next few months revenues will be significantly higher. That being said without the additional flower growing capacity. In additions the gross margins have been stated by NGW that packaged product is yielding 60% gross profit!!
Also the start up of the cloning facility will add additional revenue to the monthly sales. Start up in 4 quarter 2020 adding to revenue in the first quarter of 2021.
My forecast is for monthly sales moving towards $1,800,000 per month by the end of the first quarter 2021. That is $$ that would allow for in house financing of the next NGW grow facility. At yearly sales of almost $22,000,000 and a gross profit of over 50%
NGW could easily in my opinion get the bank financing to build their next facility on site.
Another important point about the stock pricing of NGW shares. The weed sector in total is way out of favor for the wall street investors.
If and when the Democrates win the election they will act on their stated goals of decriminalization for Cannabis. This in my opinion will open up the speculation by wall street for all the stocks in the weed sector. Valuations will go higher overall for all of these companies. And along with way NGW will get it higher valuation in market cap. And there by a significant increase in the share price for NGW.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Just checking with the charts for support and resistance.
Ok we are doing very well
Near term support resistance is at $.23 U.S.(Trading today like this is the new support level) Next resistance level is at $.285 U.S.
A few important points, of up coming near term news that should/would easily move NGW up and past the near term resistance level.
Looking for a move into the mid $.30s when some business development news is announced.
1. Extraction start up is still not announced
2. Other new products due shortly i.e gummy bears and others.
3. New facility for additional flower production, project schedule announcement.
Yes, still buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Craignortheast, a lot of question most of which I have no knowledge with which to answer you.
But about valuations, yes, I do have a point of view.
At monthly sales of $1,800,000 yield annual sales of $21,600,000 per years.
Lets use a market cap price to sales of 3 times. So
3x $21,600,000 = $64,800,000.
Last information NGW stated with approx. 170,000,000 shares outstanding.
So, $63,800,000/170,000,000 = $.375 price per share.
However currently the Cannabis stock sectors is very out of favor with many companies have very high losses in each quarter.
But, the wild card in my opinion is the Presidential election.
Biden and Harris, have stated that they will quickly move to the legalization, and decriminalization of weed.
If they win the election then there will be significant shift in the valuation of all weed product assets.
And NGW would share nicely into this market growth potential driving up the stock prices in the weed sector to "who knows where"
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Todays new release was just terrific! This was the information and product launch that we have all been waiting for.
NGW exclusive extraction, with ultra natural very high quality and ultra high THC% place NGW branded products in a special high quality, value and price point market place.
So, now my forecast for first quarter 2021 sales U.S. dollars moving towards $1,880,000 per month is starting to look very realistic.
And as Mike stated "this is just the beginning".
And from my view point they have a lot of sales growth potential well into the first quarter of 2021 with their existing flower production, NGW products, Clone seedlings, Sauce, Gummy bears, vapes, etc.
And WOW with products selling at 60% gross profit they will be well on their way to collecting the assets necessary to financing/self funding their next growth flower expansion beginning in 2nd quarter of 2021.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
'didint' can you please post the link for the inside buy that you just posted.
Thanks
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Next resistance is the 52 week high $.27. And the next technical resistance at $.29
See you all at $.29 soon!!!!
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Woops, got to be faster NGW just took out the next near term resistance level of $.23
Trading currently at last trade $.246
Well, I guess its back to the technical charts to review for the next resistance level.
More to follow soon.
Buying more here as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Ok, NGW just trade above the near term resistance of $.215. Last trade at $.22
Next resistance near term is $.23
Onward and upwards from here.
Remember, another profitable quarter helped this move.
And more business milestones in the future to come in the near term.
Extraction, cloning, more retail outlets, with expanded NGW SKU's
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
HD thank you very much for you thoughtful and well presented summary of your recent visit to NGW facility.
About current capacity/expansion. If you remember Mike clearly stated in a recent earning web audio session that his stated goal was converting the current bulk flower from 90% in sales and 10% pre rolls, and extracted product, into 10% bulk and 90% pre rolls and extracted products.
Also NGW tried their own retail outlet. It failed, and they learned their business lesson. NGW continues to expand their SKU of branded high value NGW pre rolls, and extracted products. Using the very expansive California retail weed shops in all of the major cities throughout California. They are growing their distribution without the required fixed overhead cost of their own retail shops.
NGW sales will take care of themselves accordingly. Easily moving from significantly upwards from NGW current monthly of $1,200,000 per month.
Remember the in house extraction of product has not even started up. And the value added, selling, and profit dollars from this group of products will add significantly to the total sales dollars of monthly sales.
My estimate is as follows. By the end of the first quarter of 2021 NGW will have average monthly sales of $1,800,000. This converts to a annual sales rate of $22,000,000 per year.
With this amount of annual sales NGW will have the cash flow to self fund the future expansion of the next growing facility. And with this monthly sales run rate they can find short term loan financing for the construction of their next grow facility.
This to me is the most logically business expansion plan. As Mike has stated one careful and thoughtful step at a time to continue to expand NGW into a the premier weed brand in California.
Again thank you very much HD for you investment in time for all of us investors.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Slowly inching up in price to near term resistance price of $.215.
Once this price is taken out on the up side, the next resistance
price is at $.23.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Looks like NGW could harvest equipment from this bankrupt Canadian weed company and save big $$ for their next build out.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Soon NGW will join the move up.
Cannabis Stocks Rally on Biden-Harris Vow to Decriminalize Marijuana
MT NEWSWIRES 3:54 PM ET 10/8/2020
Symbol Last Price Change
TLRY 6.14up +0.94 (+18.0769%)
CGC 17.665down +2.135 (+13.7476%)
APHA 5.68up +0.54 (+10.5058%)
ACB 5.1up +0.49 (+10.6291%)
QUOTES AS OF 03:55:01 PM ET 10/08/2020
03:54 PM EDT, 10/08/2020 (MT Newswires) -- Cannabis stocks were in the green on Thursday following Democratic VP candidate Kamala Harris' statement that a Joe Biden administration would support the decriminalization of marijuana and marijuana use convictions.
"Under a Biden-Harris administration, we will decriminalize the use of marijuana and automatically expunge all marijuana-use convictions and end incarceration for drug use alone," Harris stated.
Tilray (TLRY) was up 19%, Cronos was up 9%, Canopy Growth(CGC) rose 14%, Aphria(APHA) was up 11% and Aurora Cannabis(ACB) was up 11%.
Price: 6.14, Change: +0.94, Percent Change: +18.08
MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
©http://www.mtnewswires.com Copyright © 2020 MT Newswires. All rights reserved.
Hi Guys,
The candle stick chart and tech indicators show that we are still in and upward basis. After consolidation for a few weeks.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXGWF/chart?p=NXGWF
Money flow is positive, and the stock under accumulation. Also NWG continue to trade at the upper end of the bolinger bands.
Near term resistance is at approximately $.2150. Once this level is pass we will work toward testing the recent high of $.27
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
September 30, 2020 milestone California governor passes important law effecting weed companies banking and financing legality.
This is a very important positive business development for the weed sector and NGW
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/california-governor-approves-changes-to-marijuana-banking-and-labeling-laws/
For the last week the weed company sector stock have been trading with an upward direction.
And this is also very good news for NGW.
It will allow for NGW better financing access as it begins to expand it growth foot print.
Yes, NGW stock price has not yet reacted much to this change.
But most/many of the weed companies such as ACB,CGC,TLRY,CURLF,YOLO have been trading up aggressively.
NGW is like a tightly wound spring waiting for their moment to expand.
I expect soon a continuing large upside move for the whole sector. And NGW will enjoy this ride to higher valuations, sooner rather than later.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
DD, in answer to your question. Current bid $.201 ask $.2061
The difference between the bid and ask prices is about 2.5%.
So it just depends on your reason for buying this or any other stock position.
If you plan on a short term trade then yes the 2.5% entry stock price might have significant difference in your profit.
But if you are building a position for a long term gain with significant upside percentage gains then the small percentage upside of the ask price is less important.
For me when/if I decide to enter into a stock position I mostly like to enter first with a partial position. And then add to my position as the stock moves higher.
I rarely average down with my positions.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
'didint' for me you really did it!!
Great post with the Oct. 7, 2020 issue of Form 7 from the Canadian
Stock exchange.
As stated management is reviewing opportunities and strategic acquisitions with a view of enhancing shareholder value.
Aligning with key dispensaries and distributors to sell flower created from our perpetual harvest.
Wow...……...something of significant business development is coming
"Enhancing shareholder value" works nicely for me.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Cresus2019...…...sure moving towards $.36-.40 U.S. dollars by the
end of 2020.
Oh, wild card projection...…..if the Colombia connection starts
up and begins to monetize then this could push much higher.
Original forecast was for Colombia weed to start up production
in 2020.
Time will tell...……
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Ok, just had to take the 9000 post.
And yes, the future does look bright for NGW.
Up coming business milestones.
1. Extraction facility start up.
2. Sell thur of Extraction newly released product. That is
Sauce, vapes, gummy bears, etc.
3. Start up of sales of the Botticelli clone seedings.
4. Detail plan by management of next phase in house weed growth
additional capacity.
Each on of these milestone will move the stock 10% upward.
Buying more as funds become available.
GKTA
Hi Guys,
Thank you NGW you finally got the message. And your most recent
release of news was/is posted to Yahoo finance web site.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-green-wave-surpasses-6-114400588.html
This PR release on Yahoo finance will help get the word out to
the financial markets. I am glad to see management do this.
Soon NGW will begin to receive the valuations in the market that
a profitable weed company has/should have earned.
More upside price movement in my opinion coming real soon.
I expect a 10% move with the announcement of the extraction facility start up.
Buying more as funds become available.
glta
Hi Guys,
DD0651 it seems that the black market for weed just doesn't
service and sell the very consistence high THC quality that NGW
is placing into the market.
For me NGW has no or very, very little black market weed
competition.
Buying more as fund become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Weed prices rising = $$$$ higher selling price for NGW products
And more profit for NGW = higher stock share price to come soon.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Seem that the west coast fires are placing some very large problem for the outside grow weed companies.
Unfortunately for these companies their quality and crop yield are down. Way down due to this horrible problem.
But in business someone's loss is usually someone's gain.
https://mjbizdaily.com/western-wildfire-smoke-delays-outdoor-cannabis-harvest-exposing-climate-impact/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=MJD_20201001_News_Daily
Making NGW inside grow facility with their recurring high yield and high THC% crops even more valuable.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Since my wife is a college professor, I do have some expert
counsel for considering and apply grades for accomplishments.
My take with using the expert advise that exists at my home.
There exist two marking periods. And therefore there will be two
grades given prior to the final grade.
First grading period is directly after the third quarter earning
announcements. That is on or before 45 days after the close of
the quarter, which takes up to November 15, 2020.
The second grading period if after the forth quarter earnings
announcements. Due by Feb. 15, 2021.
Oh, yes there will be extra credit given for any intermediate
earnings or positive business announcement during these time
periods.
The final grade will be a combination of both marking periods,
and in addition any extra credit earning during this important
time period.
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Nice move today again for NGW. But, guys this is not even the start of the game ant NGW is moving to play.
NGW is getting ready to move into the big league.
Valuation will start to normalize.
Extraction start up and Botticelli will add significantly to the
sales per month.
For me I am thinking about raising my year end target price for
NGW.
Let's see how the next earning report is detailed.
Any news of a new facility and time schedule for same will drive
the share price much, much high.
Yes, still buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
In April 6, 2019 NGW had a research report issued by Small caps Investment Research
While the short term objects for the start up and build out of the Coalinga facility has been delayed by almost 2 years. The business objective as outlined in this research report are all still within the reach of NGW. And in fact some of the early objective has been met over the last 9 months.
https://smallcaps.us/reports/CR_NGW_2019_Q2.pdf
So here is some of my thoughts on the subject.
www.smallcaps.us
Within this research report they stated the projected weed capacity growth per pound per year. Noted as follows
Facility A 7000-10000 lbs.
Facility B 12000-14000 lbs.
Facility C 2500-3000 liter of cannabis oil per year.
Facility D 80000-100,000 lbs.
Using low estimates for weed only use 100,000 lbs per year at
$2000 per pound = $200,000,000 sales per year.
Build out was stated as being completed late 2020 for all Coalinga, California location facility build out.
And lets add in the cannabis oil for another $ 12,000,000 per year. At $4000 per liter for high quality cannabis oil.
Total sales of $212,000,000 per year.
At market cap to sales of 4 time. Share price should be over the $4.00 U.S. price point.
Remember I used the low end of the pounds per year estimate.
Price per share could/should/would be trading at the mid single digit within 2-3 years!!!
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Oh another point of information 1 acre growth of weed yield about
1 million dollars of product. At about $2000 per pound selling price.
https://newfrontierdata.com/cannabis-insights/comparative-yield-per-acre-for-grains-and-marijuana/
Just food for thought...…….
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Cresus2019, yes the deal was put into place in Feb. 2019. However the deal is still mentioned in the recent SEC filings for NGW. And is not front line news for NGW it still exist as a business expansion possibility/probability.
Also if you drill into the details, the planting of weed in Columbia was targeted to start in 2020. They stated that they would have 100 hectacres which equals 247 acres of growth area.
And in addition NGW over the last 9-12 month has proven its growth process. And in addition the extraction start up is soon to be coming on line.
All of this product and process of growth knowledge was part of the plan to transfer to Columbia for the local growth and distribution into the first Columbia and then other South American Markets.
If this all comes together...…..well, just well it might put the old CEO Leigh Hughes, back in favor with investors, if not NGW management. Since the deal was made on his watch.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
In my opinion, new Board of Director members are added to companies to assist in business change/development/financing/merger/acquisition.
This new addition to the BOD means to me that new financing or business combination will be undertaken by NGW with in the next 3-6 months.
A bullish business move for NGW the way I see things.
Oh, an outside thought...……..possible development of the Colombian investment?
https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/42825/Next-Green-Wave-Signs-MOU-with-Organic-Medical-Growth-to-Enter-the-Colombian-Medical-Cannabis-Market
Buying more as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Can anyone understand the new posted picture on Mikeloudseeds Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/p/CFsvBzZB83K/
Is this a new facility potential room ready to replant or a possible new set up for a new grow space?
Hummmmmmmmm food for thoughts.
Looks like NGW is making something happening sooner than later.
Comments anyone!!
Hi Guys,
Ok, Cresus2019 just for you.
Lets just use a market cap to sales of 4 times. So 4 x $30,000,000
= $120,000,000.
And by then NGW outstanding shares at 175,000,000
$120,000,000/175,000,000 = share price of $.685
And yes, my thoughts by 2023 a lot can happen in the weed sector.
And Weed stock could move into high favor will increasing legalization. And therefore the market cap to sales could be much higher. And thereby the stock price could be much higher.
So that's my guess and I am sticking with it.
Hi Guys,
My feeling about the financing for growth going forward.
It seems to me that NGW will easily be moving its sales into the
the range of $1.5 million U.S. dollars per month with the next 2
quarters. The reason being that the extraction facility will be
up and running. And new extraction products will be into the
market and sold thru such that the new sales will reach the
financial reports.
The gross margins will also improve with the higher profit
prerolls, and extraction products. In fact the margins should
move to well over 60%.
NGW will have the cash flow to self finance the next buildout
of their new facility. They could easily assume a credit line
of and or mortgage of 20 million $$ to start the building. And
at the current low interest rate at 5% or less would cost NGW
only $ 1,000,000 per year in financing costs.
Easily payable when your sales are approaching $20 million dollars
per year in 2021. And by 2022 the new building start up will just
take NGW to another level.
That would be my vote if I was on the board of directors of NGW,
No need to dilute the company stock at this price point.
By 2023 business condition just too hard to forecast at this point
but more expansion again could/would be up for self financing as
sales would move over $30 million dollars per year.
Hi Guys,
HD, well written and I do agree with you, to some extent.
However, I do feel that we just have to lower our expectations a
bit for NGW. They are a micro cap public company. They have taken
the steps necessary to reduce their overhead to the barest levels
and thereby producing a profit over the last 2 quarters.
Management has continued to deliver on its near term promises.
And the upcoming 2 quarter have significant objectives as outlined
by management, once achieved will/should bring significant revenue
improvement per quarter.
The stock price will take care of itself as the business
objectives and revenue goals are met.
I feel the pain of how difficult it is to sit back and wait for
all this to work out.
But remember one very important point here. In the current
business conditions the "WEED" sector is out of favor.
And although NGW has delivered 2 quarters of profit, it is still
very early in NGW business life to easily gain the respect and
investment from the Wall Street community.
All this will come together in my opinion within the next 2
quarters. And not much can be do to move the stock forward with
out this time passing. And the business objective goals being met
and the revenue per month increasing. This is my opinion and I
continue to stand by it.
Hi Guys,
Well stated HD...…...my thoughts are with yours!!
Buying more as cash becomes available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
ACB...…….big move coming after earnings news out today after the market closes.
Options very active imply at 35% move.
Calls to put ratio showing very bullish up side move.
I am looking for a $1.00 at least upward move after earnings.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Waiting on extraction start up news...…..And more real product release. Where is the Gummy Bear release news!!!
This information should really move the stock up to a new trading range.
Nothing really has changed since NGW last rally.
So for me the news should drive the stock up to the last high and possibly into the very low $.30's price point.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Just so that we are all clear about NGW reporting attached is the
TSX rules in detail about reporting requirments
https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/69
So listed companies have 45 days to report quarterly information for quarter 1,2,3.
That means by November 15, 2020 NGW financial quarterly information would be published. Oh, yes this year November 15, is a Sunday. So looking for this report on or before Monday November 16, 2020.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Ha, costs for posting news. Just scroll down the bottom of the "Investorshub" page and take notice of the $200.00 U.S. to post company news.
Just something wrong with NGW approach.
Are they holding the price movement down waiting for some large investor to make a move and buy in at a reduced level.
Oh, yes, it would certainly bring some confidence for investors to see upper management, and or board of director member buy shares at the open market. And not just wait for the discount options grants as NGW has done for them.
Yah, just some real company operating wishes here. I guess we will just had to wait until NGW grows into themselves and start to act like a real growing public company.
GLTA
Hi Guys
Sorry, just type in Coalinga in the search map and zoom out.
Hi Guys,
For now NGW looks safe from the California fires
Check out this current map
https://nifc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=28ce52cb86bf49dea0adef5a78b3c1b5
Good luck to all.
Hi Guys,
Sorry, Cresus good suggestion for some. However I am very sorry to say that for me it would be like showing the obvious to the blind.
GLTA