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Was thinking that in the vote on the preferred shares, and after hiring the company to help get votes, it seems odd that so many did not vote --- most assumed retail were behind the 11 mill or so that did not vote...... If your theory is correct, and it does seem quite likely to me, then what might be going on is a stealth takeover ....where shares are parked at friendly places and can be consolidated when needed... This would explain , maybe, the high number of shares that did not vote....
Thanks for the post....
A very logical theory ... it lends weight to the idea that what the negative campaign is trying to do is scare competitors away from doing full DD on avxl .... shaking out retail would likely be their second objective....
Is it a coincidence that at pretty much exactly the same time (about two weeks ago) the MTA agreement should have been concluding and the negative posting here escalated (many new neg. posters, existing negative posters posting much more, soft negative posters turning to full on negative).....The timing looks maybe more than coincidental... but also negative authored articles have not been surfacing in the last few weeks .... figure out the puzzle...
PR message is Preventative coming. EOM....
That is correct... and I believe accurately describes the situation... In terms of negotiating a deal, IMO they have to proceed almost like avxl is a private company ..... It is easier to put values on successful outcomes after trial completions also .... This takes away the distraction (and magical illusion) created by stock price in assigning value....
deal structure proposal with 3 trials funded and ready to go.....
Since the upcoming trials appear to be all/mostly fully funded (right from the CEO and also based on some DD) there is no urgency to partner, but I think management is still pursuing a partner, but given the unique position of avxl, I think a likely scenario is as follows:
Management does not need a partnership but I think they are still looking for one. It seems like a pretty rare situation though, a funded small bio with 3 trials, and so I am thinking management is likely pricing a partnership based on success at upcoming trials, but likely having money change hands when the results come in.. This makes sense and would de-risk the deal for a partner but maximize potential value for shareholders.... I like this because the share price on the stock market has no relevance to the potential outcome .... I think management thinks like this also..... THE SHARE PRICE HAS NO RELEVANCE TO THE DEAL........This also would make a very complicated deal structure and take a lot of time to draft and negotiate with all the eventualities with 3 trials, all potentially with varying degrees of potential success, and the ultimate pricing dependent on all those many multiple outcomes The highest price range (of maybe 100 possible outcome combinations) , as an example would be a clear win on all three trials, and I am thinking the value based on that would be $20 B to $40 B and the lowest value would be maybe 200 m, based on 3 failed trials, as an example. So the deal would be set up with specific criterion for the outcomes and trigger the partner to execute a deal, based on the possible outcome achieved in the 3 trials... and again share price would be irrelevant...
The beauty is that management has time to set up a partnership structured like this (since they do not need cash) , and any potential partner could be risk protected and just sit back and watch the 3 trials...
Useful DD NWDR ...and more accurate than my rough guess on trial costs for 300... So 13.5 M to run 300 which likely will be at least partial grant ... Even in a worst case scenario of no grant for AD it looks like we have enough cash for phase 3.... 3 trials and with NO dilution (WOW) ....
Just voted ..yes to all ....
Yes I agree exactly ..... and if management has that in place, does it make sense that they are in no rush to grab the first partnership deal that comes along? Simply this would mean they do not need a partnership (anytime soon) -- except possibly in some niche indications -- and would confirm the current confidence of management...... This scenario would be brilliant on so many levels..... Ever heard of negative dilution?...Not having to be forced into an unfriendly partnership (on poor terms) with a company that may be involved in the negative campaign..... and slamming the door shut on the giant option of a hostile takeover with the poison pill at the same time..... lets see where this goes....
This analysis assumes that the market will not "catch up" in valuing avxl as it should be .... the negative campaign has imo made avxl way undervalued and also attempts to give caution to partners in the industry; so this analysis (the two senarios) assumes this is not corrected.... There are however a number of possibilities that could correct this mispricing, in the favour of shareholders such as...
-full or large percentage grants of AD trial;
-foreign pharma partners;
-an under the radar local pharma player (like a Gilead);
-a generic company partnership;
-a large financial player taking over funding (German ?);
-a local traditional pharma steps up;
If the CEO has the goods in his back pocket he can make this valuation correction happen indirectly and partly with non-disclosure agreements... The main point of the analysis of the two scenarios is just to show how illogical the doom talk of dilution is... it will be interesting to see how things unfold...GLTA...
funding by share sales- good option:
Either partnership or funding trials by selling shares
, could both be equally good ....in fact an argument can be made that selling shares is even better...
The only thing that matters, from a strictly financial point of view, to shareholders is what percentage of the future value of the business (say after phase 3 trials) your shares represent ....
Partner scenario:
I suspect a partner funding in AD will argue for 50% (and try to through in all of the other value in other indications like insomnia, PD, combo potential etc)... So what a partner would likely ask for would end up resulting in the company (and represented by your shares) having half of future value...
AVXL management would likely not hold the cards anymore with this scenario..
Share sale scenario:
Lets assume the worst case scenario with no grants (highly unlikely imo): and they have to issue another 15,000,000 shares at $6 for 90 mill... and the company has shown not only can they create great trial designs but they can do it in a very frugal nature ... The negative ones will say no way can they run a phase 3 trial on 90 m ... but the trial should be no more than 300 (with the great P300 IMO it could be much much lower) and I believe they will stay out of the highest cost trial jurisdiction (or run a smallish US arm).... Anyways in this share issue to finance example as current shareholders you would own 70% (with grants, which are likely, or a smaller trial, this percentage would go up significantly) of the future value (instead of 50% in the partnership example)...and still hold all the cards...
I think some significant, maybe even full trial overage, by grant will develop and jumping into a partnership likely would wipe out this potential... A partnership could be good, but also share issue could be better....There are a lot of unknowns but do not be rattled by the fee mongering of dilution coming talk... its really what percentage of the big pie your shares represent afterwards...
Was wondering if the preferred shares might be for a gov (or charitable org) investment .... rather than outright grant...just a thought..
what happened to all the talk about the trial size being small so therefore we just have to wait for phase 3 results? It seems those same individuals that used to downplay the significance of the results, now really want to get up to their eyebrows in data from the current trial....interesting....
273 Dream combo platform:
Funny how some things are just common sense (no scientist confirmation needed).
It goes like this:
Cellular Health = Homeostasis = top combo drug = all BP need
red drip with no substance will not help the shorts:
On the science, always noise from the accumulators,
but remember the P300 has proven an increase in brain electrical activity -- at a level unseen , and the most meaningful, in AD trial.....This should be a DA moment... forget the noise .... we have the proof...
There are no reasonable comparables within the CNS space, in terms of value, to the indications avxl is treating.... That is why when I was looking for a comparable I looked outside CNS and into the Hep C indication....The lead drug there was bought out in 2011 for 10.4 B ... this was before it was approved, and with a much smaller market than where avxl is developing in CNS (but it is likely the closest (but still much smaller) size , amongst recent unapproved drug sales, to potential comparison I can find)... There is a big effort IMO to pound avxl shareholders into some kind of submission into thinking an insanely low value is justified...
Falconer (or other) science questions:
-have any studies been done yet (results?) , on how agonizing S1, M1, S2 (273) affects overall body metabolism...
(I know the organs all have sigma 1 receptors and therefore their cellular health and metabolism will increase but was trying to find out how 273 would act on overall body metabolism which would include the non-organ muscular mass of the body...I do not think muscles cells have sigma receptors);
So as an example (fictional) if the organs comprise 30% of cellular mass, and if the organ cellular metabolism increases 30%, but muscles have no increase, does this mean the overall increase in metabolism would be something like .3 X .3 = 9%.... This is likely incorrect as I am shooting in the dark on this...but just wondered if this metabolism info is known or hypothesized....
Yes...and after a negative bashing article every two weeks trashing the company, for month after month and stacked on piles of fake lawsuits ....who would think the company is allowed to mention some positive points, who would think, how are they...LOL...
double deception possibly going on, by negative posters:
6 million shares short...you have to know that is the really DUMB money....
that is the last of the short money, much of the original short money has likely been secretly recycled into long positions and accumulating .... but the current dumb short money has to be reassured they are still part of the "game", with the gang... so how do you keep them calm...simple...keep negative posting pretending like they game is still on and they are in and being supported.... In other words, the noise will likely continue on.....
Dietary supplement market $200 Billion currently: DS is bar far the largest segment of the supplement market in terms of spending its huge... If you do some research you will see that a big part of the philosophy behind DS's is that as people age their metabolism drops and then weight gain is the result.
"Metabolism" .... this should set off a loud ringing in your head if your are long avxl.... I am also wondering how increased metabolism , with 273 would affect lowering sugar levels in certain types of diabetics.... Improving cellular metabolism looks massive... Would be nice if Amstocks, Falconer, Dadomarkmax or Mycroft could chime in on this....
Homeostasis nuron health = top combo drug partner:
A lot of great sleuthing has been done on this board to uncover hidden value within the avxl story... There are so many good aspects to the science and fundamentals of avxl that it is hard to consider all salient features.. So we have the FDA already expressing how important combo drug development is; and we know that pharma companies will never stop trying to come up with new compounds to fight various diseases... The avxl 273 compound is in an enviable position within the framework of what the FDA has expressed (and not just in CNS diseases).... In fact since the sigma receptors are located on every (or almost) organ, and since its MOA is to improve cellular health, and further since it has a proven long term health history, it sure looks like it is the best candidate for EACH and EVERY combo drug for ALL disease.... A goto combo drug for every indication.... (and of course along side of this huge combo potential, initiated by independent companies, avxl will work in parallel to gain approval where it sees optimal configurations)...Equally important, to the combo drug scenario, is that as 273 gets recognized as a number one combo drug, it can be used as this, by being prescribed on an off indication basis .... say after garnering approval for Retts or AD...
273 homeostasis MOA in combo with any new approved drug will be beneficial (the only possible exception being other sigma 1 acting compounds). Homeostasis is not inconsistent with any CNS drug ..... its a no brainer, improve cellular health, alone or along with other beneficial meds and you are ahead.... The FDA even has said that long term future of AD meds will likely be with combo drugs... The talk of any other AD drug (or other CNS drug) getting approved and hurting AVXL is complete FUD... Thats the beauty of the avxl platform..... it fits everywhere...
attempt to distract from science today: this is actually a very positive sign.....
tidbit on insomnia...just heard on radio from a neuro scientist being interviewed that new studies are showing that quality of sleep has a direct link to cognitive decline.... The brain is complex and he got into a lot of the interconnected mechanisms of the brain but the conclusion was that deep sleep is needed for health brain function.. he said that overall good health helps to get that deep sleep. He also commented that it is not true that older people require less sleep.... just that they have trouble getting it and think they do...
So we know that 273 fixed insomnia and this will make patients easier to look after and improve the environment which is a big benefit; but now experts are saying if 273 can cure insomnia it can through this alone ,reduce cognitive decline.... another big benefit...
p300 like a trouble light ......Ya Doc we have power here...
The excellent scientists here are doing great , as usual on the science, but what are the ramifications of having a P300 response to 273 (a p300 response the competitors of avxl are sleepless over)....
IMO they ramifications are many and weighty..... just a few..
--shows what the true value of avxl is...many multiples
--it discredits the talk of 32/25 being a small n... all the soft bashing..
--why would p3 need more than 100 when you have the trouble light?
(no placebo, no human error problems etc)
--since avxl is the first with a meaningful p300 signal
is management of avxl, shareholders, and even the FDA
giving this proper attention? none of the above imo (but pharma knows)
--and then there is the value of this as a research tool (unprecedented in AD)
Question re P300: has there ever been another AD trial (besides 273) that had a positive
response P300? P300 up = Homeostasis working........? Why would people want to knock down the P300 results of 273 --- simply it is much more than a smoking gun and likely adds 10X to the value of said entity because (it is proof) and makes the size of the trial insignificant... and pharma knows it......P300 on 273 has been hugely overlooked by investor discussion and DD ..... it is massive...
P300 is pure data ...it omits a lot of ambiguity in more subjective data or data that involves more human "handling" ..... as a result you do not need as big a data set to have meaning, as with other metrics... I would think a very small n (maybe even "tiny") would be significant if data is correlated ....
I would love to know how the P300 is showing in the PK/PD ...for example are positive p300 results dose dependent (that would be huge imo); are P300 results sharply coorelated to certain strong responders etc.... P300 , if responding, would seem to be an IDEAL fit in an adaptive trial also.... almost like keeping patients constantly connected and monitored with dose changes (even when they sleeping as an example)... talk about gathering data....
There are clues IMO that the doc wants to get out of the mta agreement implications with said partner (except for MS alone if they want to play ball there perhaps)..... if things were going good with the partner imo avxl would not be stagnated right now ... I also do not think its a case of the partner not wanting in, but more of the partner getting the "eyes bigger than the stomach" syndrome and being difficult to reason with....likely new president syndrome also at play...
P300 could be key to improvement indication: no drug has ever worked on AD; and very very few of those have even tried to target the root cause of AD ... IMO it would therefore not be smart to compare P300 with past trials... Internally for management it is likely better since they could correlate P300 results with their strong responders... (not sure but they may have some animal p300 data as well). It seems reasonable that when the neurone cells are brought back to normal condition that electronic activity will also increase... But yes removing dead plague from dead cells (like in most past trials) might have little effect to this measure...Also important, P300 should not be affected by placebo...
Thanks for the useful DD ... seems like the "powers" especially try for painting red closes, and multi day bleeds, when there is good news or good sentiment in the air (been like this ever since the uplist) .... sad but amazing how well it seems to hold things down...
Notice that there is little written publicly (with author's name present) bashing the science these days... ..the only science bashing now seems to be on anonymous forums .....
Anyone ever consider ntrp could be a fraud by pharma to manipulate legitimate new tech into their hands?
273, 371, 141 --the order given for new MOA in PR:
371 showed results again in late stage AD in the well designed pre-clinical .... this is important for a few reasons. First, late stage is hard to treat as neurone have died in large numbers; and second it shows any pharma trying to copy 273 MOA that 371 (with full IP) is coming...
The poster appears to me to be a collaboration with university, and is basically pretty general in describing the MOA (method of action) of sigma 1 dual regulation impacts, without any detail from the current 273 trial... I am sure though science guys can find some nuggets buried within...
It appears to me that AVXL is leveraging their preclinical experience with animal models in their upgrade to Rats (from mice) and even selecting the likely superior McGill rats (amongst all rats options)...pretty sure a rats brain would be more developed than that of mice (20X size and more of a hunter animal than mice, rats have taken over islands) .... and McGill has done a lot of work breeding their option...NTRP I see is using the cheaper, and likely not as up to date, in best available option taking advantage of all latest knowledge in the area or animal testing, in animal models... Not saying the ntrp mice trial would not be useful, it will be know, just not to the same degree imo...
Very well put ..... and this is exactly why the actual share price right now is very likely "meaningless": i.e. it has zero relationship to the actual underlying intrinsic value of the company.... The powers that control could have us at 2 dollars or 12 dollars right now just as easily as where it is now (and for example make shareholder cringe exactly the same as with a bleed from 12 down to 11.50 as from 6 to 5.50 or a bleed from 2.00 to 1.50) and it would be exactly the same thing ... still the share price would be meaningless in this relationship to value ..... unless and until all known data and information is known and revealed, and probability valuation assessments done on the same, this situation will persist...
So back to a potential buy out , and since I feel we are worth high double digits right now, as a minimum, and very much more with risk reducing data, you can not even look at the price of avxl (it is totally meaningless right now, randomly picked by the powers running things), but when someone wants the tech, and they understand the real value, exactly as you state it will be repriced in an instant (days) simply by revealing all information and then step two is the actual buy out offer... So the multiple will be more in line with typical multiples... The caveat is that every situation is different also, and with game changing tech like avxl has I would not expect it to play exactly by what other companies have gone through in buy outs...I would not be surprised if avxl charts a slightly unique path...
preventative for animal...... dosed from 5 weeks old on ...where the last study shown today was dosed from 13 weeks old and on... I assume they modify the rats soon after birth...
A side thought also is they have a lot of experience with murine studies and S1, and I have a feeling they know they work fairly good on S1 and what if any the weaknesses are... Falconer also talked about this a bit... Interestingly the MTA partner (on 273) also used murine animal studies to test 273 so they must have some faith in them...
273 for early stage and 371 for late stage......just a thought today(maybe science guys can ponder) I think they know 273 has a good effect for early AD (and midterm) from all the testing done to date ...
I noticed they tested 371 McGill rat study (and titled the slides) based on late stage AD (although at the end of slides they had the slide on early preventive upcoming trial mentioned ... At this stage I wonder if they are thinking for many/some patients 273 might be better for early stage (milder, and has the long lasting metabolite and insomnia benefit) and then patients at later stages AD being better suited to 371.... Deffinitely early to judge but I would say the data at this point in time does point to 273 early and 371 late stage...
At any rate, no mater who owns 273 and 371 (the same or different entity) after all research is complete...I hope 273 and 371 will be able to be used together ...or coordinated together.... I doubt they have the same pk/pd profiles and it is known that there are stark differences in
AD from patient to patient (and genetics etc)..... So there is a reasonable possibility they would be a formidable due used together; and after utilizing modern diagnostic techniques to profile each individual patient, they could then optimize the duo sigma 1 drugs for that specific patient...
IMO this whole board jumped down a baited rabbit hole today...totally sidetracked...
something like those famous tweets by a certain someone....
apple a day keep doctor away...
10 mg a day keep AD away...
If I provide free snacks at the ASM do you think Missling will give me the 273 market rights
for "preventative use"?
whats bigger preventative use or insomnia..... very insightful post as usual am stocks...Your post, would seem to me, to indicate that 273 as a preventive measure would not only have the greatest effect (on those that are ultimately clocked to get AD) but also be the largest market (I am thinking by a large margin) ..... Is this the other monster sized market for 273 (besides insomnia)...and I am thinking by a wide margin since it may make sense for ALL people to start taking as a preventative measure at mid-life ages... So we have the following monster sized markets (separate from the core CNS) and broken down into 3 categories of risk...:
(least speculative monster sized markets)
-Preventative use
-Insomnia
and then medium speculative monster sized markets:
-smart pill (potentially for all)..
-pain
and then other major disease indication (most speculative monster sized):
-cancer;
-diabetes etc