deal structure proposal with 3 trials funded and ready to go.....
Since the upcoming trials appear to be all/mostly fully funded (right from the CEO and also based on some DD) there is no urgency to partner, but I think management is still pursuing a partner, but given the unique position of avxl, I think a likely scenario is as follows:
Management does not need a partnership but I think they are still looking for one. It seems like a pretty rare situation though, a funded small bio with 3 trials, and so I am thinking management is likely pricing a partnership based on success at upcoming trials, but likely having money change hands when the results come in.. This makes sense and would de-risk the deal for a partner but maximize potential value for shareholders.... I like this because the share price on the stock market has no relevance to the potential outcome .... I think management thinks like this also..... THE SHARE PRICE HAS NO RELEVANCE TO THE DEAL........This also would make a very complicated deal structure and take a lot of time to draft and negotiate with all the eventualities with 3 trials, all potentially with varying degrees of potential success, and the ultimate pricing dependent on all those many multiple outcomes The highest price range (of maybe 100 possible outcome combinations) , as an example would be a clear win on all three trials, and I am thinking the value based on that would be $20 B to $40 B and the lowest value would be maybe 200 m, based on 3 failed trials, as an example. So the deal would be set up with specific criterion for the outcomes and trigger the partner to execute a deal, based on the possible outcome achieved in the 3 trials... and again share price would be irrelevant...
The beauty is that management has time to set up a partnership structured like this (since they do not need cash) , and any potential partner could be risk protected and just sit back and watch the 3 trials...
