Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I did not say mentioned I said hint.... In past news releases sometimes you see language changed from their past usage without mentioning anything... but you can infer a hint...
There is no hint of exclusivity in the OEM supply to a large ortho design and manufacturing company in the news release...I just read it again...it sounds like an announcement of a continuation of a strategy at the time of OEM material licensing... So maybe initially Z was happy with a licensing of the material for maybe spine, hip etc... but after so much positive testing, trials and dev work they have changed and are now wanting the whole deal... This scenario leaves more hope that management , and BOD , of amda have been keeping the door at least slightly opened to the industry competition...to make sure Z plays fair...I am thinking Z would be guaranteed use of the material for its own use, at this point, for a predetermined set of products; and this would be laid out in the LOI...So if a competitor outbid Z for amda they would still have to allow Z to access the material as per the terms of the LOI...
I am thinking it would be a right of refusal and not an option with fixed price... A right of refusal would not stop a bidding war potentially imo ... still possibly an external bidder is waiting but it might make sense for them to wait to see what the Z opening bid is rather than make a pre-emptive move....
I am thinking a fixed price option would be material and need to be pr ed...
So if the industry knew that Z had a first right of refusal on amda (somewhat speculative I know).. and then with the fact of the Hercules anti M&A clause (controlled by amda based on loan finalization of payment) then this would seem to make a hostile bid less likely to succeed IMO... This is speculative though because we do not know for sure if this right of refusal exists ...I think it probably does though... due to the effort and costs Z seems to have undergone with SiNi dev work..
very informative post Boston (as usual).. Just thought I would mention, I have been thinking that the difficulties Z has been having with TM could be one of the main reasons why the A to Z connection has been so secretive and now Merger subject is on high radio silence... and also why Z wanted (initially to have A get approvals as advanced as possible) prior to exercising (maybe through the loi with an option or right of first refusal) on a merger... Yes there is a possibility that Z has amda completely tied up with a claus in the LOI agreement. They may think like this:
With TM going poorly it would not look good to have a vastly superior product on the shelf, but not quite ready to sell... Who would want to buy crap when they can see if they wait a bit they get the gold standard... IMO this would tank TM (more than it already has) and so they likely want to make a switch as quickly away from TM to SiNi, as possible and without the market getting much advance notice.. to keep TM sales chugging along as good as possible until it is jettisoned completely, and suddenly..with SiNi coming front and centre as quick as possible...
So yes Boston as you have alluded to, I think this secrecy/non-disclosure language is laid down in contract also so amda is to some extent at least highly likely prevented from disclosure until a predetermined time...
You guys forget that Sonny is an officer (with limited shares) of amda --- the BOD and shareholders run amda...
why desperate to show red until BO:
its the only way to shake any shares loose IMO ... shareholders for the most part know amda is worth in MC Billions and so any green will just install confidence in this narrative and a spike up will not shake any loose... Red will shake some of those who did not do DD thoroughly and this is what they are desperately after...
It is quite possible though that they waste their shares holding it to red and then an unknown peripheral force spikes it up...
Space shuttle bearing description:
Description
These high performance ceramic balls are produced by us from Toshiba's revolutionary ceramic material - TSN-03NH - which is certified to meet ASTFM F2094 Class 1 requirements, the most rigorous industry classification for silicon nitride bearing materials in the world. Only ceramic balls and rollers made of this material are approved for use in the Space Shuttle.
Benefits
These balls benefit from high strength, high resistance to abrasion, high stiffness and outstanding corrosion resistance to even very harsh chemicals and environments. They also have a 40% lower density than steel and weigh 60% less. They can operate perfectly in temperatures up to 800 degrees C, are whisper quiet and have a life expectancy up to 10 times longer than steel.
Funny how the bears worked so hard all weekend and then wasted their shares to get it into red territory this morning for almost no results (very few weak scared letting go).....Looks like most have paid their college tuition and are not worried about baseless fear mongering...
Below is a video for the bears and peek boys to enjoy over popcorn...
Abuse test video sini:
Impact test of SiNi video:
thanks boston ... this one is silicone nitride
cool bench test video: sini vs metal
SiNi trivia: compared to metal bearings (wiki)
80% less friction, 3 to 10 times longer life, 80% higher speeds, 60% less weight
"Since silicon nitride ball bearings are harder than metal, this reduces contact with the bearing track. This results in 80% less friction, 3 to 10 times longer lifetime, 80% higher speed, 60% less weight, the ability to operate with lubrication starvation, higher corrosion resistance and higher operation temperature, as compared to traditional metal bearings.[20] Silicon nitride balls weigh 79% less than tungsten carbide balls. Silicon nitride ball bearings can be found in high end automotive bearings, industrial bearings, wind turbines, motorsports, bicycles, rollerblades and skateboards. Silicon nitride bearings are especially useful in applications where corrosion, electric or magnetic fields prohibit the use of metals. For example, in tidal flow meters, where seawater attack is a problem, or in electric field seekers."
Note:
It is easy to bench test these results, side by side, metal vs SiNi to see these results, with fidget spinners..
This board is very interesting:
-it was very dead for months
-cl and boston came on 6 or 7 weeks ago
-longs came over slowly over the last 5 or 6 weeks
-finally the bears could not resist and came over in the last 2 weeks
Funny also how the bears tried to talk negative about this board for a long time and then finally came over cautiously; and even funnier how they came over pretending to be longs...
The DD has been so good (understated) here I suspect it may have actually increased the bear activity by making them even more greedy to accumulate (steal shares from weak, sick and crippled)... I think CL is bringing up so much good M&A DD that the amda top drawer security legal team is charting their plans after reading this board looking for nuggets....
Yes it is open to interpretation.... but in the spring everyone was waiting for final approval not knowing and not having been informed that it was not submitted.... In Oct there might be no amda due to likely BO...
june 8 PR:
"In December 2016, Amedica re-filed an application with the FDA with a modified porous (cancellous structured ceramic) cervical implant. After a 510(k) pre-submission meeting, the company is using FDA feedback to prepare a 510k submission to be filed in October 2017."
If a merger/BO is planned, its possible they thought it best to withhold all future applications (for the future suitor to process) for product approval since a) bigger seems to be better for these applications and b) possibly the bears having been interfering somehow in the process.
Great thought.... BTW I did not mean bears know more than longs ... the posters are actually brainless and without moral compasses... I meant the higher ups in the short groups have cultivated many inside connections, in various institutions, over years of being corrupt professionally... and so know things like timelines and even early knowledge of approvals etc... They also have channels to obstruct with important gov organizations .... maybe why csc was not re-submitted,... but yes good point why does it appear nasdaq did this....
Looks like the bears knew all along ... co had until sept 27th...Thats what I mean when I say bears have better access to info than retail longs...
I would also use this as a cautionary note when considering your vote on the R/S ... since they know more then retail longs...
IMO the name of the game over the next 5 weeks will be accumulate and cover....They will have to add some volatility somehow to get any size it looks like though..
Hypothetical: what would happen if an under the radar North American company (or offshore like Ceramtec) launched a counter bid? My guess is this would be like breaking the log jam (currently supported by the restrictive M&A financing terms and the posturing and positioning of the suitor) that has been keeping other industry player tight lipped and quiet.... JMHO but this would be a signal that the suitor has lost control (the control that has been carefully nurtured over many months) and all hell would break loose....The tight lipped and quiet would suddenly jump into the fray...This would be the best situation for longs because this is the only way really, that true market value will be extracted for shareholders... World wide there are probably 50 specialized companies that would have an interest in the tech so interest can come from many directions.... Just one possible scenario to consider.
The longer they take announcing a merger proposal the more time competitors have to understand what is going on and plan measures...
I think if Ceramtec sees a way to make a surprise counter bid... they will...
I think Stryker has the most to loose, but they also seem to have a false sense of confidence (remember Kodak) so hard to say what if anything they do...
Will be very interesting given they zero valuation placed on amda , due to the two year long manipulation...
Bears freaked on R/S + Bears secret DD channels = what?
looks like they know/think even clearer/better ,due to their superior inside connections, than longs that a merger is in fact in the works.....
Longs should consider this: The shorts (and with amda we know this is likely industry competition, financial players and potential suitors..) have much better access to information than retail longs...Why does there seem to suddenly be an effort by so many non-regular posters here trying to direct longs to vote no... I am talking in general and not about any one poster in particular... Usually shorts love a R/S but why are they seeming to not want a R/S so bad this time?
I agree with this point by CL...
"Bears wear Bull's clothes & convince the real bulls to vote no...ahem ahem...tactical mind games to delay the progress of the merger in plan."
yes the intangibles are almost priceless; but also what is being dressed down so much...
EBITA on a synergized basis (means large reductions in S&M, G&A from duplications and taking back non-cash expenses). The idea is to look at how a purchase effects the suitor on a cash basis post acquisition. In the case of AMDA you also have to factor in the NOL's in this analysis since there would be very significant tax reductions for any profitably ortho company buying amda.
Taking some assumptions and guestimates on current business run rate of 25 million with a near break even situation, its not hard to see where a purchaser could cut 5 million just on duplications and further cutting. Add to this the PV of the 200 million in NOLs...
So to a purchaser with a 20 to 1 PE running, just the current AMDA test marketing and impeded sales would be worth 100 million plus probably another 70 million in NOL PV ... so 170 million value there just for the basically scratching the surface of potential sales, and until just recently really no meaningful sales program... and basically what I see as test marketing of their material science to date....
So this analysis of course leaves out entirely the much much more significant component of value in amda, which is being dressed down as much as possible currently by those accumulating... and that is the tech itself and its very large potential addressable market.
"BREAKING DOWN 'SEC Form NT 10-Q'
The form 10-Q is required to be filed within 45 days following the end of each of a company's first three fiscal quarters. If the 10-Q cannot be filed in a timely manner, the company must file a Form 10-QT with the commission. A very common reason for an NT 10-Q is a merger or acquisition, which prevents results from being incorporated in time for the filing. The SEC provides for "unreasonable effort and expense", with explanation, as part of the application for relief."
simple quote from investopedia .... notice the third sentence..
CL and Boston continue to light it up with, frankly, over the top quality of DD... I voted yes with no hesitation BTW...
My thought is there likely is a battery of high quality, and high priced securities lawyers charting a lot of the recommendations for detail and procedure steps at amda now , and amda shareholders likely are not always a top consideration for them.... To me it looks like a very complex plan being implemented and intended to cover many bases..I doubt this is being planned "in-house" (followed likely) ... too much niche specific expertise is required imo...
Short Trap, Shake out weak ..all imo..
Boston, CL, Ash, Sweeps, Honda etc etc... and the few other very smart and insightful posters here, huge thanks also... I am here because of the value proposition mainly but am loving this BO scenario also...
With all the bashing its amazing how little selling is coming ... Maybe college kids are not buying it...
Could the suitor be thinking like this: A: "for every share we get down here now by accumulating it is one less share we have to buy up there"? and B:"if we hold it down here maybe we can weaken resolve of retail longs and industry alike so things are not disrupted , to accept a BO price"....
A likely but they are not getting any size here at all.
B: not likely -- you have to pay to play...
Bad Karma, lawsuits, Industry backlash, bad luck (or a sharp white knight) will destroy any entity who trys to sneak amda in a underhanded way, is my prediction... lets see if reason prevails as I think it will...
Simple refutation of R/S nonsense:
If a reverse split was bad it would automatically follow that a straight split is positive and companies would then automatically split as much as possible for the easy benefit.. The concept of a reverse split being bad is a fallacy spread by manipulators to induce fear in an unwitting investor... It is part of the manipulation game used often alongside the dilution scare tactic to further panic unwitting investors. Since it has been used so much, for this, lately it has become sort of a self fulfilling prophecy with investors... but actually a reverse split in itself has zero effect.... but it will be used as a psychological weapon, especially with uneducated segments of the investment world...in almost the same way as stop loss sell order crashes are manipulated...
read the posts to see what is said,,,
The bashing campaign has created a situation where the company is very easy to sell.... at a massive premium. This situation is in Sonnies favour with the warrants. Its legal to issue warrants in a financing to insiders and you can not blame Sonny for the low share price (and potential far above normal potential selling premium) or the side effect situation where selling is easy. He can sell the company next week IMO and the warrants or legally sound. This is totally transparent... and has nothing to do with "insider trading"...Bears are mad because they purposely created this situation of mispricing...
Sonny not worried about M&A clause IMO:
either its paid off now or he is confident in his abilities to have this negotiated to be paid off.....
Market makers also showed their hand big time imo ... heavy accumulation (its easy to have a flat day on a good news day: with x amount of buying they match with x amount of selling)..Yes we learned a boat load....
Well said Ohman ....very very deep value play and now a BO play wrapped around that...
BTW the financing news was very significant to amda...in the way of derisking what we all know/thought was there......
they will not let it go up on any good news days (yet) since they are still trying to shake the college kids tuition money....and have to mess with their minds to get it...
I would not assume that (although possible)...I would take this as bad news if I was short ..lets put it that way...
Shorts lost their Hercules safety net....no wonder they are so scared.
He invested in a company that was "contractually unsaleable"-- who cares if some were kicking the tires... it was unsaleable. He took risk investing not knowing if
a) if hercules would allow early repayment; and
b) if after those above steps, if there would be a buyer at all...
How could that be anything but sound.... He did not know of a BO because nothing was/is certain (or even if he would get to first base with Hercules)....