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LRC,
$500MM revenue multiplied by 30% net profit margin = $150MM.
$150MM divided by 112MM shares outstanding = $1.34/share
$1.34/share multiplied by 50 P/E = $67/share
Nice accumulation today. Like Lew stated in a bit of quiet period until 10Q gets filed. 3 positions posted by LWLG require PhD so world class team is getting bigger. Lebby also noted adding to BOD at some point as well.
Lrc,
Thanks. % of 2023 target market LWLG will comprise based on the varying annual revenue assumptions. We know ubiquity is much higher % but data centers have multi-year replacement cycles.
The exercise just illustrates how little revenue it takes (relative to TAM) to create generational shareholder value.
Pickle
allwillbewave,
Author of Photonics roadmap is not leading the industry into the new paradigm down a country road. Ubiquity is not exclusive.
https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/307dbc8b-e212-48ba-9968-8cef3f6b5188/c751dee2-e881-5e6d-7849-c57852de0aef?origin=2
Please see slide 10
We can integrate other devices with our polymer modulators
adding to existing silicon photonics as well as multi-channel solutions for higher
aggregate speeds
Please see slide 18
Easily fabricated using CMOS/Silicon foundries
• Process is standard and does not require special tool kits
• EO Polymer has security of supply
• Material designed and sourced directly from LWLG
• Low-cost addition to integrated photonics platforms
• Silicon photonics can be boosted in performance
Please see slide 19
Standard silicon fabrication components…
Please see slide 22
Polymer modulators fabricated in silicon foundries
Fun with Numbers,
We have discussed the potential share price discussion ad nauseum, but I have to keep coming back to it because it keeps me grounded in LWLG's potential. It also seems to release my endorphins after a hard day at the office and reviewing my kids' college tuition bills. While Vein and Pitcook are seemingly the Eeyores of this board, they are absolutely spot on in that it must be DEAL TIME for guesses to stop and shift into reality as Lebby provides revenue guidance once foundry deals are signed. For me, it is all about the pace at which mass commercialization drives revenue growth near-term on our way to ubiquity (when it rolls it is going to roll). I have no idea what price this product will command in the marketplace or how long it will take to achieve ubiquity so I use Lebby's TAM slide. I conservatively used 2022 TAM for % of TAM and assuming ubiquity does not occur in 2023. Regardless, the numbers still quickly get out of hand. Can this be true? If I am totally off-base, please rein me in. I still do not believe it every time I punch the numbers into the calculator.
Sorry, I cannot get my Excel table to paste properly.
Profit Margin
Projected 2023 Revenue % of TAM 30% 40% 50%
Share Price
$500,000,000 2.5% $67 $89 $112
$1,000,000,000 5% $134 $179 $223
$2,000,000,000 10% $268 $357 $446
$4,000,000,000 20% $536 $714 $893
P/E Ratio = 50
Target Market = Green Verticals (slide 16) from June 2022 Presentation
2022 $20B
2030 $113B
Profit Margins - Total SWAG based on Technology Transfer/Licensing model
Shares Outstanding 112,000,000
Do your own DD and also use the mega DD thread. This remains a very speculative investment until we get confirmation of DEAL TIME!!
Watch live: Biden signs bill to boost China competition and U.S. chip production
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/biden-signs-china-competition-bill-to-boost-us-chip-production.html
Frob,
I believe that is true. It also could start after LWLG's 10Q is filed in a week or two. GF should file in a week or so. I am also very interested to hear GF's upcoming conference call. The avalanche seems to be approaching.
LWLG's Law (Sunrise) to succeed Moore's Law (Sunset)
No doubt the government has been told by Lebby, Tier 1s and 7 foundries of this imminent paradigm shift. The message is now either to adapt or lose industry relevance.
WORK-BASED LEARNING.—The term ‘‘work-based learning’’ has the meaning given the term in section 3 of the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act of 2006 (20 U.S.C. 2302).
18 (b) FINDINGS.—Congress finds that— (1) the coming end of Moore’s Law presents major technological challenges and opportunities for the United States and has important implications for national security, economic competitiveness, and scientific discovery; (2) future progress and innovation in microelectronics, and the maintenance of a robust[u] domestic microelectronics [/u]supply chain, will require an approach that advances relevant materials science, electronics and photonic device technologies, processing and packaging technologies, manufacturing technologies, circuit, chip, and system architecture, and software system and algorithm development in a codesign fashion;
https://www.commerce.senate.gov/services/files/CFC99CC6-CE84-4B1A-8BBF-8D2E84BD7965
(A) IN GENERAL.—In carrying out the program, the Secretary shall provide financial assistance to eligible entities described in sub20 paragraph (B) to carry out research projects in—
(i) foundational science areas, including—
933
DUN22612 LM4 S.L.C.
1 (I) materials sciences, chemical
2 sciences, and plasma science synthesis
3 and fabrication;
4 (II) novel microelectronics devices, including emerging memory and
6 storage technologies;
7 (III) diverse computing architectures and paradigms, including analog
9 computing and edge computing;
10 (IV) data-driven modeling and
11 simulation;
12 (V) integrated sensing, power
13 harvesting, and communications;
14 (VI) component integration and
15 subsystems;
16 (VII) photonic integration and
17 packaging; and
18 (VIII) development of codesign
19 frameworks for all stages of microelectronics design, development, fabrication, and application;
LOL. LWLG might just fund Koog's retirement whether he likes it or not.
You know this investment is de-risked when the retirement funds starting dipping their toe in the pond.
Frob,
Agree. It is absolutely another awesome validation and recognition of the technology that will be ubiquitous. The dots have now become a giant spotlight for everyone to see.
F2, how ironic in a bill centered in chip production that Congress announces the end of Moore's Law courtesy of LWLG.
Canary in the coal mine in the CHIPS Act. End of Moore's Law
WORK-BASED LEARNING.—The term
15 ‘‘work-based learning’’ has the meaning given the term in section 3 of the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act of 2006 (20 U.S.C. 2302).
18 (b) FINDINGS.—Congress finds that— (1) the coming end of Moore’s Law presents major technological challenges and opportunities for the United States and has important implications for national security, economic competitiveness, and scientific discovery; (2) future progress and innovation in microelectronics, and the maintenance of a robust domestic microelectronics supply chain, will require an approach that advances relevant materials science, electronic and photonic device technologies, processing and packaging technologies, manufacturing technologies, circuit, chip, and system architecture, and software system and algorithm development in a codesign fashion;
https://www.commerce.senate.gov/services/files/CFC99CC6-CE84-4B1A-8BBF-8D2E84BD7965
(A) IN GENERAL.—In carrying out the
18 program, the Secretary shall provide financial
19 assistance to eligible entities described in sub20 paragraph (B) to carry out research projects
21 in—
22 (i) foundational science areas, includ23 ing—
933
DUN22612 LM4 S.L.C.
1 (I) materials sciences, chemical
2 sciences, and plasma science synthesis
3 and fabrication;
4 (II) novel microelectronics devices, including emerging memory and
6 storage technologies;
7 (III) diverse computing architectures and paradigms, including analog
9 computing and edge computing;
10 (IV) data-driven modeling and
11 simulation;
12 (V) integrated sensing, power
13 harvesting, and communications;
14 (VI) component integration and
15 subsystems;
16 (VII) photonic integration and
17 packaging; and
18 (VIII) development of codesign
19 frameworks for all stages of microelectronics design, development, fabrication, and application;
As usual, that make perfect sense. Thanks for your insight as always! Exciting times ahead.
Richard,
I do not think this would delay implementation, only possibly the pace of ramp up after 2025. These fabs take years to build and market needs LWLG technology now as Tier 1 have expressed to the foundries. The ROI would seem to quicken implementation which is already seen in Lebby's slides with foundry pictures and yield discovery. Also, Lebby already provided firm foundry timeline in SHM prior to CHIPS act being resurrected. Also, announcement of Fotonix from GF earlier this year. "Time waits for no man"
What are your thoughts?
Dwagom,
I think they keep playing the general tech market sentiment and are clueless to LWLG. The CHIPS Act is the wild card since not within direct control of LWLG.
2Q22 10Q should be filed within two weeks. Last year it was filed on August 16th. Hopefully a bit sooner this year which may then initiate next major news release cycle.
Window for shorts is rapidly closing
Tkg
Yes. Agree. I just highlighted the industry conference.
7-8 September 2022 | Leuven, Belgium
EPIC Meeting on CMOS Compatible Integrated Photonics at imec
[
The thought process and the consequences of all of these actions will be studied for a long time. LWLG can be a pivotal solution for sure.
Yes, it is fascinating seeing this all come together amid all the chaos.
LWLG is wound tight this afternoon. Russia and Nord Stream is the canary in the coal mine on getting domestic energy policy in order which US administration has chosen to ignore. But this will bleed across to foundries and chip production which will benefit LWLG.
Tom, Dick and Michael, LOL. They are coming out of the woodwork when billions are up for grabs. GFS cited for its Malta expansion as expected. There is a bunch of research grants ro be had as well.
Chips funding bill faces a final vote in Senate this week
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/24/chips-act-senate-vote/
Shorts played by Wiky E Coyote.
No doubt
Lebby in Washington DC. The importance of this is so exciting for a few reasons:
Lebby was obviously invited (maybe even summoned) to come. But by whom? Recognition of Lebby and LWLG is so cool as we wait for the official PRs.
Government does not front run technological advancements, they are recognizing the paradigm shift to photonics based on what the major Tier 1 and foundries are telling them is happening now and who is making that happen.
Who can better explain not only the global photonics roadmap he helped author, but how our allies in Europe and US can carry out a unified strategy to both remove dangerous dependencies and take the technological lead for DECADES? The national security aspect does not hurt the imminent adoption through mass commercialization by private sector.
More positive exposure is always good.
F2, tremendous!!!
Just back from NYC vacation with family and daughter heading back to Vet school for 3rd year, youngest son off to college and oldest son graduated college and heading to flight school. Hope all is well with your family.
Good grief. Que Charlie Brown.
What a great day! Repost on share potential. Net margins and share price for every $500MM in projected revenue and 110 million shares outstanding with P/E of 50:
40% net profit margin - $90/share
50% net profit margin - $114/share
Ubiquity position in a $30B-$50B target market. Is that 60%, 70%, etc? $500/share only needs about $2.5B in revenue. When it it rolls it going to roll. Let's push this snowball downhill.
Xena,
So glad you are feeling better.
Lewrock
Would margin calls become the catalyst? If so must be getting close. Need some more volume buying.
U.S. Senate votes to move ahead on chip bill to compete with China
https://www.reuters.com/technology/months-later-us-senate-tries-again-computer-chip-bill-compete-with-china-2022-07-19/
Lew, what is a slumbering weekend without wild speculation. LoL. It is all about Foundries as we know but CHIPs would be a feather in the cap of LWLG and there is about $3B slotted for Research however that is divided up. The Defense aspect and ensuring technology resides in U.S. plays very well for LWLG.
As Proto stated in prior post, inclusion within the CHIPS Act would be a huge validation point for LWLG's technology and imminent commercialization. While $1B would be beyond my wildest dreams, any dollar amount speaks to the importance of LWLG's technology that will be utilized (and ubiquitous) for "DECADES". LWLG does not get included in CHIPS ACT unless this is a known outcome as communicated by Tier 1 and large foundries partners. How do you secure the U.S. chip industry? With a superior and unique product that is 3x faster, half the power, driving higher ROI throughout the manufacturing chain, and quietly under NDAs with "trusted" partners, years of testing, patent protection, and exploding out of the gates with imminent mass commercialization and ubiquity. For DECADES!!
The TAM is $30B-$50B+. The CHIPS Act in terms of dollars will feed R&D and remove any need for dilution near-term but we already knew that as commercialization will be ridiculously profitable. Also, look at Bosch building a 300m wafer plant for Auto/LIDAR, MACOM and GFS speaking in earnings call about silicon photonics as a key growth engine. Lebby chairing international conferences touting this paradigm shift TODAY!
Very excited with no vinegar. Just straight up!
FYI - $20/share is only a $2B market cap for all of this? As Proto says, you got to be kidding me.
Pickle
If you and Jeunke are right, the days to cover has rapidly shrunk. Squeeze incoming!!!!
Wow!!!!!
Schumer poised to advance bill to boost domestic chip production in potential breakthrough. GFS and Macom like the news today.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/politics/domestic-chip-production-bill-schumer/index.html
(CNN)Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is moving ahead with a $52 billion bill to boost domestic semiconductor production to address the chip shortage, telling senators it could head to the floor as soon as Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the matter.
The move could amount to a major breakthrough because Republican leaders have said they'd be open to passing a narrow bill that focuses mainly on the issue of producing semiconductor chips. This is a clear sign it could become law.
The bill would be a scaled back version of the larger China competitiveness legislation, which has been hung up amid intraparty disputes and the threat of Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell derailing it if Democrats move forward with a separate partisan economic package.
The move comes as the Biden administration has ramped up pressure on Congress to act on the chip legislation before lawmakers leave in the coming weeks for summer recess.
Schumer said they'd move a bill that could include, "at a minimum -- the emergency funding for CHIPS and the investment tax credit from the FABS Act," which stands for the Facilitating American-Built Semiconductors, according to the source. Schumer also indicated more elements could be added if there is agreement.
Rkf, did you mean critters?