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Hi don let me think on it, I don't think it will be to hard to do. How ever one of the things to remember about systematic investing verses investing a lump sum is that you will see about half the over all gain of the stock. Say you and Mr lump summer both start investing at $4.00 and the stock goes to $10 over a year. Mr lump summer has a gain of 150%, while you will probably see a gain of 80%, give or take a few percent. If you sell all the stock, you lock in all your profits except for taxes. True you may lose some gain, the stock may go higher, but I think the odds are higher that it is due to drop, which will give you a chance to buy more stock at a lower price.
Hi Tom, thank's for your in put. Sorry that I took so long to reply. How are you getting on with excel? I have the new Twinvest spread sheets just about finished. These are just simulation spreadsheets, not for investing. I am just getting started looking for bugs in them. I have made a spread sheet for both #1 and #2 and one for both together. I have set up a feed back loop that will feed cash from the cash pile into the fund. The feed back loop is built into the Twinvest code, so you should see the code changing every time period.
The old Twinvest code was (first stock price times Monthly Installment times 75%). The new one is (#1 or #2, times (Monthly instalment plus a percent of Cash on hand)times 75%. Because #1 and #2 and Cash change the Twinvest code will change.
I also have a sell function, that sells all stock at what ever profit setting you want, If you don't want to sell just set it for a really high profit setting. When you have a sell you will see the Twinvest code jump.
Hi Cody, To be honest I have not done much research into funds or stocks, but here are two good sites for doing research.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/fundwelcome.asp?Funds=1
http://www.quicken.com/investments/mutualfunds/
If you can, you probably should run a few fund screens, and then research the best funds that come up.
Barney,are you sure you don't want to be a day trader? X_DEV, as set up is more in line with swing trading than day trading. In my opinion, no simple system will work for day trading, there is just to much noise in the price data.
Don sent spreadsheets, to your other email address.
Hi Don, I have not read this yet, but it may be what you are looking for. http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/996/rebal.htm
Here is their list of issues. For more Info. http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/index.shtml
I have a copy protected Demo spread sheet that I will send you, if I can find it. I think the web site is no more though.
Hi Myst, well said! If I remember right, in the beginning you had something about maybe selling a program in the firsts few headers. I was surprised when you gave out the formula in the first few messages. I was also surprised when you gave out the spreadsheets. I think you have every right to sell both spreadsheets and program.
Did you ever get to read (Stock Market Trading Systems by Gerald Appel and W.Frederick Hitschler) He had several ideas that I think are worth reading. The MACD system is similar to yours, except it was a all or nothing system. In the last chapters he came up with a system that could determine if you were in a trading range or a trending mode and adjust for it. I don't know if it worked or not. But I think you should look at it.
Hey Tom, hate to do this to you, but Myst may not pick it up. When you typed the forumla for the 50 day EMA you had a typo, you threw in a extra zero!
A 50 day eMA would start with 2/51 or 0.0392 for the "smoothing constant. So the formula would be (X * 0.039) + (Y * 0.0961) to get the approx. equal to a 50 day simple moving average.
It should be
A 50 day EMA would start with 2/51 or 0.0392 for the "smoothing constant. So the formula would be (X * 0.039) + (Y * 0.961) to get the approx. equal to a 50 day simple moving average.
To know you have it right the two constants should add up to one. 0.039 + 0.961 = 1
Hi, I think you looked at the settings a little to fast. It will work with outlook, by default, and outlook express if you enable the plugin.
This is from the AVG help.
Note: If you use a different e-mail program other than Microsoft Outlook, the error message on the button will read 'Non-Functional', because you are using an e-mail client not currently supported by AVG. Support for additional e-mail programs are being added all the time, so be sure you have the latest AVG updates. They just added the outlook express plugin.
I think you mean a 12 month sma, not a 12 day sma. But, yes I would like a spreadsheet.
Thinks
Lostcowboy
Conrad,Some times you jump in with both feet to fast! Do you realize that you were rude to Pragmatico, and that you should apologize to him! At the very least you should look at the man's spreadsheet before saying what you did. It may be that he made a error in it, or it may be that he is right in what he said.
I don't think that you played around much with that Synchrovest spread sheet I sent you.
First Pragmatico said that he started out with 10,000 dollars,not $125 a month. So in the (cash to invest this time) column you put in $10,000 in the first month, the rest of the months you put in $0.
The next thing you must realize is that the 10,8,5,4,5,8,10, stock cycle is a very extreme cycle. You just copy that into the price column. If I remember right the spread sheet I sent you did not go to 120 months, so you will have to copy some rows until you have 120 of them.
You are now ready to play with the settings at the top, have fun.
Note we don't know what Pragmatico's cash acceleration setting does. I do know that my (Second Cash Amount is Triggered at this Multiplier) and (Second Cash Amount Max buy is Limited to this Percent of Cash) works as a delay, so we will have it set at 1.0 and 100% respectfully. Set (Planned Monthly Investment)
to $600 and (Percent To be Invested Immediately) to 100%. Set (Sell Profit Percentage) to 50%.
Note in Mr. Lichello's book he went to 7 years and 7 months, or 91 months.
Lets look at Synchrovest's total profit at 91 months. $43,294,731.29 and at 120 months $566,762,752.22!
So Conrad, I think your formula is in error.
I think that most of you might agree that we should be prepared override the signals of our precious trading systems rather than being a slaves to them.
I could not have said it better.
Well, it downloaded, and installed just fine, but I did not find any new buttons in Excel 97. So I guess it will not work.
How ever excel 97 does have a web query funtion.here are a few web pages on it. http://www.15seconds.com/issue/991021.htm
http://www.meg.uct.ac.za/downloads/Web/excelweb.htm , http://support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=kb;EN-US;q157482
Here are some samples, they could be out of date. http://officeupdate.microsoft.com/excel/webquery/samples.htm
In excel 2002 you do it a little bit diffrent. http://office.microsoft.com/assistance/2002/articles/xlImprovedWebQueries.aspx http://office.microsoft.com/assistance/2002/articles/EnterParametersInAWebQuery.aspx
here is the search i did .http://search.office.microsoft.com/result.aspx?qu=web%20query
Well, I got no inputs from the people who use Twinvest on these modifications to it. I don't know which one is better, so I guess I'll just flip a coin, and get started on a new and hopefully better spreadsheet for Twinvest.
Hi Banjanxed it should work now, or you can send it to lostcowboy@vei.net
Hi, over at the Systematic board I have posted two ideals on how to make Twinvest's code more dynamic and hopeful more accurate.
Please look them over and leave comments.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=336250
Thanks
Lost
Very Interesting Reading on Wash Sells and IRA's!
http://www.smartmoney.com/tax/capital/index.cfm?story=washrules
Say Bob, think I just saw your next computer!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=339414
Hi Don here is one of the messages on the Aim board on no-down aim. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=311024
Hi Don, This is in answer to both your questions. I did not answer right away, as I did not read your first message until quite late, and I wanted to think on my reply.
First let me say, that I have not owned ether stocks or funds before. So you may not want to pay attention to any advice that I give. As to the advice, you have not given very much info about yourself, so it is hard to give any advice, but I will try.
About the use of AGTHX, why do you want to use a mutual fund with a 5.75% Front load? My understanding of Front load funds is that they take their cut off of the top, so you are only working with 94.25% of your initial money, it is my understanding that they do the same for any money you add later. I think one of the most important things about picking a mutual fund is you want to keep the costs as low as possible, compared to the performance and risk of the fund. I think you can find a better fund for your purposes. Both http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/fundwelcome.asp?Funds=1 and http://www.quicken.com/investments/mutualfunds/ have great sites for evaluating funds, I would use both sites.
About Asset Allocation, here is a web site with a lot of good information on it. http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ Also be sure to check out http://www.home.golden.net/~pjponzo/gummy_stuff.htm , Gummy as he goes by is a retired math teacher.
A good book is called (How to create Wealth in a Decade ) I believe.
About Using Synchrovest. You said I realize that as my total funds change as well as the value of this fund I will be coming up with different amounts to add each month. Wonder if that will cause Syn to malfunction?
The answer is I don't know! If you believe in the Asset Allocation theory, both your stocks and your mutual funds will be going up and down roughly in sync with each other, so Synchrovest, or any other formula plan may not work very well for you. All formula plans that I know of are based on having your funds split into two main parts, a variable part (stocks/mutual funds) and a static part (money fund/bond fund).
Ok let me see if I understand how you want to use Synchrovest. You have a portfolio of stocks, that over the course of five years you want to convert to four or five mutual funds and one money/bond fund, and you want to invest in one fund each week.
So each week you would take the ((current value of your stock portfolio multiplied by asset allocation percent)divided by the number of weeks remaining in five years) multiplied by Synchrovest's multiplier for that asset}. Any cash not used that week would be put in the money/bond fund. I think it will work. I am guessing that at the end of five years you will have 80% in mutual funds and 20% in money/bond fund. I am thinking that at the end of five years you will not be able to add new money each month? If this is true you will probably want to switch over to using AIM to manage your funds.
I don't like how the Twinvest code is made. Using the stock price of your first buy may not be the best way to generate the code.
Here are two Dynamic ways to generate the Twinvest code.
1. Take the 52 week high stock price and subtract the 52 week low price from it, then divide by two. Add to this number the 52 week low stock price. You now have a number that is between them, multiply this with your planed investment, that is your Twinvest code.
2. Take the 200 day ma or the 26 week ma, and multiply it with your planed investment to get your Twinvest code.
Ether one of these should change over time, and should IMO produce better Twinvest profits.
Comments?
A Modification to straight DCA!
Some people believe that we are at the bottom of the Bear market, and that the best course of action is a straight DCA from here. This will only be true if the market goes straight up from here to your retirement date, when you sell all your stock. The odds are not good that this will happen, it is much more likely that there will be dips along the way. I feel that dips should be taken advantage of, In order to do that you need some extra cash. What, you have no extra cash, you put it all into the stock market each month, well you are not going to be able to buy much at the sell then.
Here is what I recommend you do, put only 75-80 Percent of your monthly investment into your mutual fund, and the rest into a money fund or short term bond fund. When you get your statement from your mutual fund, look for your average cost, and compare it to the current price of the mutual fund, if the current price is below the average cost, you are looking at a bargain. Now is the time to take extra money from the money fund and invest it in the mutual fund.
The next question is how much of the money fund to invest, all of it? what if the dip becomes a bear, here you are buying stocks at a 20 percent discount when you could of had them at a 50 percent discount. Try this take (average cost) divide it by (current mutual fund price) you the drop the one, we want only the fraction. Take the fraction and multiply that with your money fund, that is how much extra you should invest at that time. Next month do it again.
To all Twinvest fans out there! I am thanking of modifying it. There are a few things about it that I don't like.
1. I don't like how the Twinvest code is made. Using the stock price of your first buy may not be the best way to generate the code.
2.Mr Lichello say's to sell all your stock when you have a profit of 100 percent, and start a new Twinvest plan. I suspect using 50 percent profit will work better.
3.In Twinvest ,Mr Lichello did not include a way to reinvest the cash after a sell, back into the stock. He did do this in Synchrovest.
Yes I am trying to generate interest in the board.
To all Twinvest fans out there! I am thanking of modifying it. There are a few things about it that I don't like.
1. I don't like how the Twinvest code is made. Using the stock price of your first buy may not be the best way to generate the code.
2.Mr Lichello say's to sell all your stock when you have a profit of 100 percent, and start a new Twinvest plan. I suspect using 50 percent profit will work better.
3.In Twinvest ,Mr Lichello did not include a way to reinvest the cash after a sell, back into the stock. He did do this in Synchrovest.
Please send all comments Pro and Con to http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=966
Yes I am trying to generate interest in the board.
Hi QuillandPenn, I am curious if you, had compared Synchrovest to Twinvest, before deciding to go with Twinvest? If you have Excel you can use the spreadsheets that I posted to compare the two plans to each other.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=966
Just look in the Header for the links.
I have not tested this program yet, but it may be what you are looking for. http://www.mailwasher.net/
Hi Karw, Glad to see someone is using Synchrovest, have you compared how you are doing with Synchrovest to if you had been using DCA? It looks like you are well diversified.
I have to admit that I do not have a full understanding of your CASH Machine
Thanks Bruce, I needed that. lol
In case anyone was wondering, I normally check this board at least once a day to see if anyone has any questions, on the systems discussed so far. Or to see if someone has added any new systematic systems here. Right now it seems that Myst is attracting all the attention . If for some reason you have not been there yet, you can find his system here. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1074
I guess I am jealous.
Hi Myst,interesting system you have. Have you heard of MACD, it was first introduced in (Stock Market Trading Systems by Gerald Appel and W.Frederick Hitschler). The original MACD used two Ema's of 26 and 12 days, later a smoothing EMA of 9 days was added. Where his system is different from yours is he would wait until the deviation had reached a -maximum and had started to go back to zero, he would then use all cash to buy all stock. When the stock reached a +maximum and had started to go back to zero he would sell all stock and put cash in the bank.
Another interesting book is (New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems by J. Welles Wilder).
Vesselin brought up Mesa, here is the web site for it. http://www.mesasoftware.com/
Have you considered using average cost in your formula? In systems that buy all the stock at once, average cost is the same as the price you bought the stock at, and as long as you can sell at a higher price you are fine.
But with systems that use partial buy's and sells, (to me) it becomes important to include average cost in the system, at least for sells.
Et lets see if this will work?
Ok that worked!
Et here is what you did wrong,you used the wrong url. Here is what you need to do right click on a chart in IE select properties, a window will show up with the right url, you can highlight it, and copy it to the clipboard, it is a long url make sure you get the whole thing. you can then show it with the chart command.
Hi Bob, found another way to save band width and speed up my browser, First all graphic's need to have expiration dates on them, then asp pages for lifetime members need to have expiration dates, but non life members should not, or you may not get paid by the ad company. Here is the url, tip 21.
http://msdn.microsoft.com/library/default.asp?url=/library/en-us/dnasp/html/asptips.asp?frame=true
I think a date of one month would be right for pages, and a year on the Graphic's. Even a day would really save you a lot of money. Right now when I hit the (previous) link, I draw a new page from the server, not my browsers cache.
Thank's warp speed to all!
Bob, just now read the message, went to the board in question, did not have any problems.
Hi Joe, LMAOROF! But it is also for the people who do not have cable on their street, and live more than four miles from their local phone office, and who can not afford satellite, and who's 56K modem will only connect at 45k.
Actually this was for Investorshub.com as they pay for every bit of data going into and out of their web site.
Bob & Matt,Think I found a way to save you some more bandwidth!
Go here, http://www.freegraphics.com/art-gifjpeg-cruncher.html and run any and all Gif's and Jpg's through their cruncher!
You mean that's what that 2 trillion dollar market loss came from? I totally agree with you! But everyone who sold at the market hi, is having a very good retirement!
Interesting ideal! I wonder if stocks that have split the first time, do better than stocks that are on their third or forth split?
This is a good leadin for two programs for free. Startup Control panel and startupmonitor. http://www.mlin.net/
Bob, all links are working.
Hi Bob, Every link in the message is working! All links on the Board are working. Here are some thoughts.
A. For some reason the links between the webserver and the SQL server got messed up for this board only. And now that you have removed the mesages and restored them the links have been restored. so you worn't see this problem again.
B.Could it have been a virus? I understand there are new virus out there that can go from my computer to your server, then to whoever veiws the webpage. If I understand it correctly. I think one virus of this type was called RED CODE.
I think in troubleshooting this thing, we are ready for the COB to put the data back in the Iframe.
Hi Scrooge, Here is what I wanted you to see over at that web site. http://www6.tomshardware.com/mainboard/98q1/980101/index.html
And http://www6.tomshardware.com/mainboard/97q3/970703/index.html
If you change the clk frequency to 75Mhz. I recommend you change the cpu multiplier to 3.0 that will slow the cpu to 225Mhz. I don't think you will have a heat problem. If the system becomes unstable(freezes) simply turn it off and put the jumpers back where they were.
You should see a gain of between 10 to 20% at the system level.
But you may not see the change in windows! But you will see a change in windows when you install that cacheman program!