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Hi all, I have started pulling ideas together for a new once-a-period Systematic plan. Come on over and take a look and let me know what you think. I want it to be able to handle something as slow as a index, and as wild as a cryptocurrency. I have not started on any spreadsheet yet. The last time I did that was around the 2002-2004 time frame, so I will have to learn spreadsheet programming all over again.
First, I am not going to be doing any planning for a large lump sum amount of money. Just a Systematic once a period plan. I want a plan that can work with something like an index, and also something as wild as BitCoin or some other crypto coin.
With the stock market, they say it goes up 3/4ths of the time, so that sounds like a good ratio of stocks/(cash/bonds) ratio to start with. SO amount per month X .75 to stocks, 0.25 to cash/bonds.
So as long as the stock market is in a bull market I invest (Amount X .75).
But what about Dips? Buy more on the Dips! How? Add (Williams %R) to the formula! The period is to be determined later, but at least 52Ws I believe. So now our formula looks like (Amount X (Williams %R +0.75) or (amount X a range between 0.75 and 1.75). If we use (.75 X (1 + Williams %R) we get a range between 0.75 and 1.5.
Average Cost, we want the average cost to be as low as possible. If the current price is above average cost the average cost will go higher. Only when the current price is below the average cost will the average cost go lower. Also, the number of periods involved will have an effect on how much the average cost will move. For example, if you have been investing the same amount for 24 periods then each price point will affect the average cost by (100%/24 = 4.1%) the only way to have a greater effect is by investing a greater amount than average for that period. This is why Robert Lichello had a second part to his Synchrovest plan formula, for investing large amounts when the current price was below the average cost. He used ((average cost/current price)- 1) X (cash/bonds). I still like the idea of using a two-part formula.
Should we sell when we have a decent profit? how much is good enough? should we sell all at once or a little at a time? Should we be selling during the bull market, or wait until we are over the hump, and how much of a decline is big enough, can it be done? All this is to be determined upon a later date.
Buy the Dip!
What does buy the dip mean? What's a dip? It looks like there is not a good definition of what a stock dip is. So let's call it a decline of between 5 and 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.
What Is a Correction?
In investing, a correction is usually defined as a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.
What Is a Bear Market?
A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
What Is a Bull Market?
A bull market is a period of time in financial markets when the price of an asset or security rises continuously.
The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each.
What Is the Average Cost Method?
The average cost method assigns a cost to inventory items based on the total cost of goods purchased or produced in a period divided by the total number of items purchased or produced. The average cost method is also known as the weighted-average method.
What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging(DCA)?
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy in which an investor divides up the total amount to be invested across periodic purchases of a target asset in an effort to reduce the impact of volatility on the overall purchase. The purchases occur regardless of the asset's price and at regular intervals.
What is Synchrovest?
Synchrovest is an investment plan created by Robert Lichello in his book Super Power Investing
What are AIM and Twinvest? Aim and Twinvest were created by Robert Lichello in his book How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically: Twinvest was added after the second edition I believe.
What is Williams %R?
Williams %R, also known as the Williams Percent Range, is a type of momentum indicator that moves between 0 and -100 and measures overbought and oversold levels. The Williams %R may be used to find entry and exit points in the market. The indicator is very similar to the Stochastic oscillator and is used in the same way. It was developed by Larry Williams and it compares a stock’s closing price to the high-low range over a specific period, typically 14 days or periods.
So where the heck am I going with this. I have been getting more interested in Cryptocoin and bitcoin. I saw this site www.dca-cc.com Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) calculator for Bitcoin (BTC) backtesting, I thought WOW, how good could Synchrovest do? so I loaded up my spreadsheet, added the numbers and it did not even come close to beating DCA.
I did not test with AIM or Twinvest, but I suspect the results would have been similar
So it is back to the drawing board.
Hi, Myst do you use www.tradingview.comYou can run scripts on there for trading strategy. They use their own Script called Pine Script up to version five now.
I just got on there as a free member, so I am still learning what the site can do. You can post your scripts on there as public or private, I think you can charge money for the use also. This may be a cheaper way for you to sell X_DEV. you don't have to worry about most of the programming as the website does that, just need to worry about your formula. I have kindle unlimited, here is a quick search on amazon for tradingview. Just starting to read, let you know more later. Take care
Michael Hicks, has some very nice AIM videos and a free Spreadsheet on youtube. Michael Hicks Channel on youtube AIM Spreadsheet
ok got it.
oops! my bad, send another email to lostcowboy5@gmail.com
Thanks!
Myst! Sorry for the very long delay! feel free to send any spreadsheets to lost_cowboy@hotmail.com
Attention: Please send Jeffrey Weber an email of support, he is having a bit of a problem with Amazon selling his books. You can read about it here.
Here is a book to read that may help. Professional Investment Coach: Stock & ETF
To be honest, I had problems following the author, but still, it is a good read.
It's been a while!
I see there are a few new people, that's good to see.
About the Coronavirus, Johns Hopkins has a good map of it. Coronavirus Resource Center
Glad to see no one is panicking yet?
Books you should read:
Start off with "Successful investing formulas. Tomlinson, Lucile E" an online read Successful investing formulas by Tomlinson, Lucile E link provided by "karw"
Next, you need to read both books by Robert Lichello, don't just try and understand the formulas from some web site. His books are like if your grandfather seats you down, and explained investing to you. one thing you need to understand, when he says cash he is talking about money that is invested in an account that is drawing interest that is equal to inflation, or as close as you can get, and still have quick assess to it.
"Value Averaging by Edleson" This is a very dense book, you will need to read it at least four times. Also, there are free spreadsheets at the publisher's web page for the book. Do not google Value Averaging as all the web pages try to give the simple ideal, which is not the one in the book.
Spreadsheets and financial theory can be found at "gummy stuff" the final resting place is www.finaThis is an archive of gummy-stuff, from August 2010
I almost forgot if you are thinking about getting a financial caculator, but are not sure how to use it checkout TVMCalcs.com
Hi Myst, the last web site I saw it at, has done a update and took it away. But I did find some close examples. My google search was (star background constellation html5 follow the mouse) found animated-background-headers click on connect three.
html5-canvas-examples check out constellation
codepen-demos Draw Worm is pretty.
Totally off topic:
Free users may be interested in ADGuard they have free addons for firefox, and I am sure other browsers, but they also have software that you pay for that can be used to block for your whole device, You have to go to their web site to download it.
For the people that want to stop other people from seeing where you go on the internet there are VPN's. I am using IPVanish, they are having a sell this month. I think I saw some other VPN's having sells this month also. To be honest I have only used it for a week, but it was easy to setup just download their software.
Looks like I am first! Question have you been using X-Dev on Cyptocurency's and if so how good is it?
On website it looks nice,but I have see on some other sites a moving line/web thing that follows the mouse around. If you can get that to work it would go with your background. unfortunately I can't remember where I saw it last.
Nice to have you back,
Lostcowboy
Myst! Long time no see! what you been doing? I still don't have any money for investing but I will check out your new board, and site.
Hi nokodemion, I am sorry to say I am not who you are thinking of, you are thinking of DonCarlson. If I am not mistaken he passed away, a while back, I think it was cancer. He did the Husky Spreadsheet.
Here is his profile page DonCarlson you can read his posts from there. I no longer have any of his spreadsheets so I can't help you there, the famous hard drive crash did me in.
Take care Clifford
Hi Nokodemion, I am interested in the name of the bitcoin. I would like to read up on it.
I am worried about that 13 week delay, If you decide that you want to get out, or change to another bitcoin the sell will be stretched out over that 13 weeks. Also does the 13 weeks apply to the TOKEN too?
Some of this reminds me of Bitconnect. You can read about it Bitconnect You can see a chart Bitconnect Chart Bitconnect had a holding period of between 299 and 120 days depending on how much you invested at a time. Bit connect went from a high of $447 to $6.64 in less than a month when they got bad news.
I can't afford to take the risk of a loss, so I stay out of investing. Old saying only invest what you can afford to lose.
Raising PC by 2% a month sounds more like Value Averaging by MICHAEL E. EDLESON. You can buy a used copy for less than $5.00 + shipping on Amazon You can find the updated spreadsheets at select the download tab
Jeff, welcome! I have posted your website before, and have no problem with posting it again.
JJJ INVESTING SYSTEMS I see you have updated it, since the last time I was there. It looks nice.
the two posts you put on my group!
I guess there is a stock symbol SIG?? Who knew?
Bull and Bear markets
I came across this pdf file on Bull and Bear Markets.
Allen! I am not sure you had your thinking hat on when you came out with this idea. Did you test this with pencil and paper? I think that will answer the question. when I come up with a Great Idea, I just compare it to AIM by the book for one year and see if I come out ahead or not. Just 12 calculations will answer your question.
I think a bigger question is are you compatible with AIM, some people are not. Which is OK, someone needs to be around to buy when AIM want's you to sell. You may want to read, Five Minute Investing. It explains scaling and reverse scaling, AIM is a type of Scaling formula. In the book they explain why reverse scaling is the way to go.Note they do introduce the concept of buying on margin, I don't think they highlight the risks of margin enough.
Enough on that.
Aim where did it come from? The best way to answer this is to look at the history of formula plans. Karl recently gave me a link to Successful Investing Formulas by LUCILE TOMLINSON While you can read this book online you cannot download it unless you are a member. You can download it a page at a time, you can also switch between the original scan and text.
In the book she explains what a Constant Dollar Plan is, and why most people don't use it.She also talks about ways to improve on the original plan. Some of her ideas Robert Lichello liked, or came up with on his own, to use in his AIM plan. One was the ideal of adding to the portfolio control after a purchase. She also talks about using different percentages for buying and selling. she also talks about having a delayed buy/sell based on where current price is in relationship to the last bull/bear market, 50%/33.5%. She also talks about starting ratio's of stocks and bonds and how one may want to adjust it based on whether one thinks the market is high or low.
Robert wanted to make as simple a plan as he could, that's why he uses add and subtraction,and 10 percent so much. That way any old truck driver could do it while drinking coffee, place a order and get back on the road again.
VEALIE's, at the top of the bull market, one needs enough cash(bonds) to handle the expected drop in a bear market, if you don't have enough you run out of cash before the bottom where all the bargain prices are, but if you have to much then you get cash drag,as you did not need it. once your cash percentage reaches what you think you need then you start doing VEALIE's to maintain the percentage.
How much do you need? Check out the CASH BURN RATE For AIM
The way the page works is you have increasing price drops going down the page, on the right half of the page you have your starting cash percentages, 50%, 33%, and 20% in three columns. In the columns you see the safe settings as percentages,from 5% to 70%.
A example, the stock market has been going up for a long time, and you want to get in but you are fearful that a bear market may start so you go with a 50% cash plan and 10% safe. Find the 50% cash column, go down the page till you get to the row that has 10% in it. Then go left on that row until you get to the Pct Drop From Top column, and you will see the percentage where you will run out of money, and all your money will be in stocks, that should be a -50% drop.
I did a quick look at the readme file, it seems the program runs full screen. I bought some software on steam that may help. I can't say for sure as I have not run it yet, it is called Borderless Gaiming it's suppost to help games that run in a window appear full screen.
Borderless Gaiming
Hi I have noticed a lot of talk about using X2 and X3ETF,s and other high volatility vehicles such as Bitcoin and other Altcoins maybe even penny stocks.
The first thing to point out is all these vehicles are high risk, so you should only put into them what you can lose.
I read a kindle book that you may be interested in getting.
Professional Investment Coach by Joseph Ngu
He does do comparisons to AIM.
PS: you will have to make your own spreadsheet to test it.
Awesome! It is a shame they won't let you download it, you have to be a member. I did see that on the side you can change it to a text, but then it is page by page.
Hi Clive,
In the spreadsheet you have a fixed high ratio and a fixed low ratio and in between you have a variable ratio which is calculated close to your formula but no log in it. I think I said William%R in the comment but no negative value. The variable ratio is basically a linear function between 0 and 100 which is then adjusted to fit between the two fixed ratios. In the spreadsheet I am using a manually determined high number, for high risk, where you would be at the low stock ratio. So if in your opinion even though the current price was high, you have determined that the risk is normal or low then you could make the high number double the current price or what ever, and the same with the low number.
One change I think needs to be done to the spreadsheet is to allow the user to change the fixed percentages as he goes down the spreadsheet. These need to be able to changed based on age, and how much risk a person thinks he can handle.
The second half of your message I will have to think on and get back to you on. But the simple answer is if one invests 100% and never sells then one has no way to take advantage of severe dips and bear markets when they happen.
What are you going to use for a (cash or bond)position? I think that Washington state bonds would be too concentrated at first glance. Just because it's only one state.
The 2030 retirement fund had I think four stock funds and two bonds funds in it. The only thing I saw wrong with it was it had the wrong ratio of stocks to bonds for the current risk level. Which was why I was wondering if the other years were available I thinking that the 2025 or 2020 fund would be a better ratio for the current risk level.
If you have a decent bond fund, you could use it with the 2030 fund to adjust the stock to bond ratio. a 90%/10% 2039 fund to bond fund, should give you a 60% stock to 40% bond ratio roughly speaking.
I saw in another message that you have the Value averaging book, he gives a lot of math in there about why you should invest quarterly.
About spreadsheets, tooting my own horn here try my hilowdemo spreadsheet that I talked about in my last message it tells you how much percentage you have of stock, and what the new percentage should be. You would have to use separate sheets for each fund.
Be aware that it is not AIM, but it is a veritable ratio plan like aim is. I would download the last ten years or so of data fron yahoo and put it into the aim and my spreadsheet, and see which one you like better.
Howdy, a long time ago the last spreadsheet I made was hilowinvestordemo.xls I don't think anyone noticed it, and I would like for people to test it and give me their opinion on it. You can find it at this folder Lostcowboy's Spreadsheets There are no Macros in it you have to put everything in by hand. but it should not be to hard to copy and past from one spreadsheet to another one.
So you start with the setup page. put in the amount of cash or bonds,and put in the amount invested in stocks and the number of shares. Then you come to the low ratio, and high ratio. I have them at 10% and 90%. That's what a young person may want to set them at.
Mrs. Tomlinson,in her book Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson Talked about her Tomlinson compensation plan where at the top of the market you would want to be like 30% in stocks, and at the bottom of the market you would want to be like 70% in stocks. But I think you need to set them for yourself based on your ability to handle risk.
Next you have how big a move your stock or fund needs to make before you buy or sell. Thats it for the setup page.
Then you go to the HiLow sheet, on the HiLow sheet you can only change what is in yellow. The current price is self evident, the high and low price, is what you think they could do. That is the emotional part of this spreadsheet, as the current price goes up, and gets closer to the high price, you will be selling stock, when the price reaches the High price you will be at the Low Ratio that you set on the setup sheet. If the current price drops to the low price the stock ratio will increase until you get to the High ratio, you will be buying stock. You can change the high and low price as you go down the sheet, again that is the emotional part of this. "Amount to be invested this period" is new money that you want to invest, you can put zero in there if you want to, or put it in whenever you have some. If you only have a lump some to work with, just put it in the setup sheet and the sheet will tell you how much to invest based on the current price and what you put in as high and low prices.
Well that's about it for now. Let me know what you think about it.
Clifford
Any way that you can move to one of the other Target retirement funds? You are presently in the 2030 fund which has 70% stock and 30% bonds. the 2025 fund is basically a 60% stock and 40% bonds. Something to note your 2030 fund should shift to 60% stock and 40% bonds in about two years anyway.
It looks like this is how the Target funds are working, If the current year is greater than 25 years away from the target year they stay at 90% stocks and 10% bonds. At 25 years away they change by 5%, each five years they change again. But when you get to 15 years away from the target year they change by 10% each five years until they get to 40% stocks and 60% bonds. Looks like they only readjust every five years. I also saw that once you move funds you are restricted for 30 days, so you can move funds only 12 times a year.
Target Fund Comparisons
If you take the links in the header and copy them into the Wayback machineyou should be able to get to the old site.
Be aware while you can download and install the trial software it will not work as yahoo has changed how you access the stock data. The manual may be worth downloading. On the manual use the 2006 capture.
lol lolrof
Hi, I've been lurking for a long time, just not posting. I am starting to develop a interest in Bitcoin and the Altcoin's. Does anyone else have any info on them? I have been trying out a GPU miner called EasyHash for the last week, but I am not sure I want to continue as it makes my room hot. Also I have figured out this is really me renting out my computer to other people and they get any coins mined, I am only getting about two and a half dollars a day for my computer running under a heavy load all day. Not enough return on my investment.
A non-investment interest I have started is VR (virtual reality. Right now I am using a MetroPCS phone "ZTE Blade Z Max" cheapest I could find with a gyro inside, only cost me $99, then I had to get a headset another $18, this phone will only do the google Cardboard, not the more advance google Daydream. I am working on being able to stream my PC games to the phone as 3d,it's interesting.
Hi Allen the bad news is I know nothing about VBA the language used by Macros. The good news is there are a lot of tutorials on the web.
excel-macro-tutorial-for-beginners
They have more tutors at archives
Hi on the web page there are two buttons, if you click on install, you go to the google play store. Where you may or not be able to install it.
If you click on find, the find button will change to a download button. You would need to change your android security in order to install it.
Note this is only a simple program to demonstrate that AIM works.
Sorry, no Ideal how to find that data.
Hi Allen, AIM and LEAPS, check out Jeffrey Weber books.
web site
[url]www.amazon.com/Jeffrey-Weber/e/B005HEEVKE
[/url][tag]books on amazon[/tag]
sorry about being away, pc computer been actting up. Twinvest should sell at 100% profit by Mr.Lichello. for some reason I did not put it into the spreadsheet. in the other sheets if you see a sell persent box they will sell if the percent profit gos over that percent.
Hi Neko, in twinvest the code is based on your starting price. in twinvest hilo it is based on the 52 week hi and the 52 week low, the code is the middle price between them so it is a more dynamic code that will change over time. My thinking was, what if you start your twinvest at a market hi or a market low what would happen? To me the best code would be if you started with a code that was in the middle. That way if the stock was at a high you would start out investing a minimum amount and putting some away for a rainy day. If you are starting out at a market low, instead of putting in 75% you would be putting in 100% or maybe higher, up to you. Also the code would be able to change over time. in the moving average twinvest you use the 200 day moving average. roughly the same ideal have the code change over time. As you know stocks can change over time, I am not saying these are the way to go, just putting ideals out there for people to explore.
With Synchrovest, the average cost changes over time, I was trying to do the same thing with twinvest.
Over at amazon they have some pretty cheap kindle books on excel vba
excel vba
Also do a search on "
How to Create a Stock Price History Application in Microsoft Excel Kindle Edition
by T. Glenn Anderson (Author) ". $2.99 I belive you may be able to find the info on the web for free though.
On the value averaging site be sure to open up the download section. you have one big spreadsheet book with all the spreadsheets in it, but also the separate spreadsheets.