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Doubt most people understand the potential severity of this....
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/3046592.html
Apparently Galveston has a stupid mayor that doesn't understand storm surge....I hope she has smartened up since this (CNN)...hmm, don't worry, it won't be that windy, but you can swim onto your roof if you get in trouble.
In Galveston, city officials ordered mandatory evacuations for part of the island town beginning at 7 a.m. CT (8 a.m. ET) Thursday. The rest of the town will be under a voluntary evacuation order. Only residents will be required to evacuate on the western end of the island.
Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas defended this decision, saying current models call for Galveston to be hit with winds and rain only equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane.
"We do not intend to evacuate Galveston Island," she said. "It's the last thing we want to do. Our job is to protect lives and property, [and] right now we feel that sheltering in place is the best action for our citizens to take."
ahh, didn't see the latest surge map - crap...24-27' surge for Houston?????? Yeah, pretty bad for Louisiana as well (mostly west).
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_surge.gif
Yes, the first 100 miles of the right side..areas in Louisiana will see some surge - maybe 6-7' or so, but its Galveston/Houston that will be at high risk with up to 20' possible...Houston is a huge city, 4x the size of pre-katrina New Orleans...this will be a serious Texas issue
NSMG still think this is best play for Texas hit - WEGI/IPII are better for Louisiana east...in fact, I doubt IPII would have anything to do with a Texas landfall at all - WEGI as well would be slow to respond as they only have what looks to be an emergency shelter setup in Louisiana (its a library)...seems more N.O. dependent. As least NSMG has a new office in Texas out of the way of the storm...
Also watch PHHM for big board movement - thats pure Texas...
NSMG gapper - may be a big runner next 2 days with Ike anticipated as cat 3 or 4 at landfall - recently opened up a new office in Texas, so should be fast to respond
Yes, but usually the monsters lose 20mph or so before landfall - unfortunately, in this case, there is extremely warm water all the way up to landfall - it will likely be at or near its peak intensity for that reason at landfall...it will likely push much further inland than normal - yes, not 140mph winds, but still 100mph winds as far in as Austin (or wherever the final track takes it)....that will make this way more dangerous.
I think Masters latest says it all:
All indications are that Ike will intensify into a major hurricane that will bring widespread destruction to a large stretch of the Texas coast. I expect Ike will generate a 10-15 foot storm surge along a 100-mile stretch of Texas coast from the eye landfall location, northwards. I urge Texas residents to take this storm very seriously and heed any evacuation orders given. Most of you living along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane, and Ike is capable of causing high loss of life in storm surge-prone areas. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and will probably remain closed most of Saturday. Ike has a good chance of becoming the most destructive hurricane in Texas history
canadian model has been out to lunch most of the time - would discredit it - none of the other models (including the aggressive ECMWF) show these developing at this point. Focus for now is Ike, and it is showing cat 2 strength still, 80-100 miles inland. This may go down as worse than Katrina as it looks like even as far inland as Austin may feel hurricane strength.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif
Well, until models say otherwise, I will assume landfall in the Corpus Christi area - does not really matter as its a very dangerous situation pretty much wherever you are along the Texas coast. I do think NSMG is the best penny play based on its office location...I'm not as gung ho on WEGI anymore - their 'office' in Louisiana is a church/library which (if even legit) seems more of a localized setup for Katrina....I think NSMG has better capabilities to respond with its new Texas office.
We shall see
yah, should be nothing more than a bad bad springtime thunderstorm for you, but could still see sustained 60mph, gusts to 80mph if it stays on current track - still stay safe as the duration won't be like the typical spring storm.
Austin will likely house a pile of evacuee's I'd say
You close to the gulf, or safely enough inshore? Don't mess around one bit with this if you are, but since track is still a little iffy (Galveston to Houston kinda thing), I'd maybe wait another day before I pack things up.
This may be very dangerous several 100 miles inshore as well as its still showing 120mph winds even at its position 50miles onshore.
NSMG - getting hurricane attention - may be the best penny player of the group with Ike anticipated to hit Texas as a high cat 3 to 4...recently opened up office in Texas, so much more location appropriate than most of the rest. Hit almost 0.06 during Gustav, and Gustav weakened significantly at landfall - ocean conditions for Ike means continued strength through to landfall.
http://www.pinnacleroofco.com/
NSMG - getting hurricane attention - may be the best penny player of the group with Ike anticipated to hit Texas as a high cat 3 to 4...recently opened up office in Texas, so much more location appropriate than most of the rest. Hit almost 0.06 during Gustav, and Gustav weakened significantly at landfall - ocean conditions for Ike means continued strength through to landfall.
http://www.pinnacleroofco.com/
NSMG - getting hurricane attention - may be the best penny player of the group with Ike anticipated to hit Texas as a high cat 3 to 4...recently opened up office in Texas, so much more location appropriate than most of the rest. Hit almost 0.06 during Gustav, and Gustav weakened significantly at landfall - ocean conditions for Ike means continued strength through to landfall.
http://www.pinnacleroofco.com/
Seems to be firming up as a Corpus Christi landfall - strength at landfall says there should be some back in play again...my 'realistic' plays would have to be NSMG, PHHM, STRL...you could stretch things on WEGI, but I don't really think they will have enough of a presence in Texas.
wegi runs kind of exhausted lately and as I mentioned, not that convinced about their Louisiana office (its a church/library at that location!?!)...NSMG though may be worth a play - watching that close - nice gustav pop for sure
So just what ARE you holding here long term? Don't forget, if your cane plays were going up as a several bagger to make my gains look minimal, that will likely also mean there are events that made me jump back in - as I already have a 180%+ edge on you, I'm sure my gains would exceed.
Anyway, BIG BIG if there IMH.
Too bad HSOA screwed up its stock/reputation with its filings and moved office out of Texas...that would be the ultimate Texas play otherwise.
what winter low? Prices were quite a bit higher in WEGI & IPII to be one of those..if anything, you are flat, or under water.
Meanwhile, Dug up what I had done so far since Gustav....
wegi - from 0.056 to 0.102 - 82%
from 0.055 to 0.065 - 18%
IPII from 2.30 to 3.46 - 50%
from 3.38 to 3.61 - 7%
gv from 0.48 to 0.56 - 17%
Obviously in comparison, buy hold made no sense whatsoever as I wasn't even great on my exits here - that is the case for the whole market right now...I wouldn't be comfortable if I was you just because I hate dead money...plain/simple
amen...and that is what I've been saying the last few days..if you can't beat them, join them - so if people just trade in and out of storms, do the same and don't be holding through the season looking for a 10 bagger...there IS big money to be made and I have done very well..winning trades on phhm, IPII twice, WEGI twice, GV....but I'm not getting greedy because I know how everyone else is thinking these days too and have to adjust expectations because of it.
As for profit taking before the close...no, think its a hold now - probably 90% of holders are in the red at the moment and will be looking for the next hurricane to sell their shares. Because of this, gains will likely be harder and harder to come by. I don't see much downside at this point, but also don't see incentive yet to buy again.
Just don't know why you guys didn't trade in and out - instead of 'waiting' for the next opportunity to buy cane stocks, you are now looking for the next opportunity to just get your money back. All you holders are now in the red and really, the first signs of the slide to Texas and you should have been out. It's way better to be on the sidelines and watching money go by you 'could have made' vs still being in and watching the money you are losing.
Sorry...I certainly tried to warn...Texas is just cold zone for hurricane stocks, plain and simple, no matter the size at landfall (although PHHM and BUGS still worth a look if cat 4 or more.
Now you are in the position of 'hoping' for another event you have no control over just to get out of red....thats tough way to play them....next week at least has a possibility off Cape Verde, so good luck!
yah, as I said...was marginal (I did miss an extra point or two on it, but got out on landfall on the 23rd because it obviously didn't hit as hard as was anticipated)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=PHHM&a=06&b=17&c=2008&d=06&e=25&f=2008&g=d
- point being, I'm not going to play a hurricane stock just for the hell of it, I'll play one only if I feel it will actually spin off business from landfall. For that reason, buying something like IPII when landfall looks to be in Texas makes no sense whatsoever - I think the oil rig repair plays may be the way to go, but really needs the cat 4 hit.
USUALLY, GV is my only cat2 or less hurricane play, but even Texas is too far away for it.
per Masters
Once Ike approaches the coast on Friday, the total heat content of the ocean declines, and the shear is forecast to rise to a moderate 15-20 knots. The GFDL and HWRF models respond by weakening Ike to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall in Texas. This is a reasonable forecast, but our skill in forecasting intensity is low, and Ike could just as easily be a Category 1 or Category 4 hurricane at landfall.
the only thing you need to do is compare the tightness of the models - way more agreement now in the models with only 2 real outliers - for the last week, there were two dominant camps - 1 north, 1 south so guidance was much more hopeless.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early3.png
Keep in mind also, there has been a significant south shift in this since this was run and even the GFDL is south of Galveston now (best model of the bunch)...the biased is there and there is no signs the west/south movement will shift back east.
If it does, I will likely jump in again, but you also need the other ingredient of high end cat 3 or greater at landfall for people to scramble back into these. Since wind shear will be 15-20 knots once it pushes western gulf, I think that is quite unlikely.
Always watching!
thanks for that...I'm sure most want to disagree when I'm negative here and I'm not trying to crap on the parade, but at the same time, its my nature to be logical and argue both ways - not to scream that the forecasters must be wrong and its going to swing back east again as a cat 5 and destroy everything! That's just wishful (and sadistic) thinking as a trader. I haven't had a losing trade on the hurricane plays since Katrina and that can be verified on my old trader group message board...greed kills, and so does wishful thinking.
I pulled out of both WEGI and IPII on Friday because of the slide south eliminating the immediate Florida threat - I figured plenty of time to get back in if the gulf becomes high risk again...it was a worthwhile gamble, because Texas is really crap for making money off these (I did make one point on PHHM when Dolly hit, but that was it).
We all want to make money, but don't throw logic out the window.
their head office is there...
well, when I first looked into it, it stuck me as odd that their 'office' was a church/library. That really seems like a much more localized distribution center if it is anything at all. I do think Texas takes the hype out of the picture for it - east coast works best for it really and it certainly has that N.O. landfall thing going for it too.
I said dead at the moment...they are a day to day kind of play (at least to maximize your gains)
that's like saying buy TAYD because a 9 on the richter scale could happen on the west coast any day...geez...I study this chit something fierce (for 1 to make money, for 2, general fascination of storms) - just because you have a warm gulf, doesn't mean you are guaranteed a cat 5...most of the models are saying cat 3 at best for landfall, and even Dr Masters (who is often bang on) says maybe cat 1 or 2 for landfall. Why go assume otherwise?
Essentially all the models are now showing Texas landfall, and as I said, that really limits your plays...PHHM, STRL, maybe BUGS...thats about it realistically - IPII likely won't get business from that at all, and WEGI is too small to likely get business as well that far west. The trading today reflects that logic. Even as is, they need high cat 3 or higher at landfall for there to be a significant need for their services anyway.
As for Josephine..not gonna happen...wind shear is too high and initial path was open sea anyway - that's not going to change.
You don't hold these plays, you trade in and out as the forecast changes...dead money for now...
as I said on the weekend...sorry guys - I would also add oil rig repair/rebuild types to the list of possible plays, but the usual suspects are likely pretty dead now
ALUS - huge bids protecting downside - lots of upside after last weeks drop (on no substance) - should be a no-brainer 30-50% bounce
ALUS should be a good bounce today - down from $1.80+ last week on no substance (I'd assume there was a large seller just getting out) - big bidder sitting at $1.18 for support - could see 30-50%
ALUS - dropped 35% for no good reason last week - think a nice bounce is due
ALUS - big time bottom bounce potential - drop on no bad news
well, you can't really pick and choose the models you like - taking the 3 that best suits out of 18 models, but yeah, its definitely been a tough one to gauge and I don't think it will be clear until its at least 1/2 way through Cuba - I've always been a believer of the GFDL all along...so we'll have to see...I think there will probably be another buy opp before anything
GFDL looking at a Texas/Louisiana landfall as a minimal cat3..most of the models now leaning towards Texas.
As there wasn't a huge runup this time around in the plays, I would anticipate a flat open, perhaps a bit of a drop, but I think Texas does take most of the plays out of the picture (and for those that have seen me posting, I am not about bashing them down, I just call the scenario I most likely see). There are a few plays worthwhile for a Texas hit, but only if cat 3 or higher...PHHM and STRL - maybe BUGS if you want to push your gambling luck - not as exciting, but at least realistic to actually get business from the storm, and realistic is what I'd rather play.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early4.png
disclosure..sold wegi Friday for 18% this time, 82% during Gustav, IPII for 13%, 58% during Gustav...GV 18% during Gustav...
looks more like Mobile, or maybe panhandle...
How about 14 of 18 models??? You funny troll you (at least I hope so, because otherwise you are talking about a subject you have absolutely no clue about!)
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png
as said...u are assuming IPII can only do $4??? 2 or 3 bigger buyers and it could run to $5 in a heartbeat...if a group decided to push it around a bit, it could go to $10...the reason it died with Gustav was the timing of the long weekend and the quick adjustment of the intensity models off the large cat5 risk. Ike may still have 6 or 7 more days until final landfall - shorting something like IPII right now is stupid - by Tues/Wed, depending on where things are at, perhaps its a short then...so many shorts are impatient and they end up screwing themselves out of much bigger gains because of it...just sit tight...if you believe it will fizzle, wait for a much bigger push before you consider the short...otherwise, you end up like the poor suckers over at CHCI
because so did many of the other models on the prior one - acu is out to lunch here and if you feel like the 2 for 17 is your kind of odds, go nuts like i said...bet you it will be wrong though. The only way it was going to follow Hanna was if Hanna strengthened to cat 2+ storm in the last day or so - well, it didn't, and that is why the rest of the models have written off that scenario.
you call acuweather DD...sigh...all odds now look like another gulf hurricane - only 2 out of 17 call for anything close to Hanna - of course, if you like those odds, go nuts on your theory
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png