Hurricane Stocks

[Deewar25]

the only thing you need to do is compare the tightness of the models - way more agreement now in the models with only 2 real outliers - for the last week, there were two dominant camps - 1 north, 1 south so guidance was much more hopeless.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early3.png

Keep in mind also, there has been a significant south shift in this since this was run and even the GFDL is south of Galveston now (best model of the bunch)...the biased is there and there is no signs the west/south movement will shift back east.

If it does, I will likely jump in again, but you also need the other ingredient of high end cat 3 or greater at landfall for people to scramble back into these. Since wind shear will be 15-20 knots once it pushes western gulf, I think that is quite unlikely.

Always watching!