as said...u are assuming IPII can only do $4??? 2 or 3 bigger buyers and it could run to $5 in a heartbeat...if a group decided to push it around a bit, it could go to $10...the reason it died with Gustav was the timing of the long weekend and the quick adjustment of the intensity models off the large cat5 risk. Ike may still have 6 or 7 more days until final landfall - shorting something like IPII right now is stupid - by Tues/Wed, depending on where things are at, perhaps its a short then...so many shorts are impatient and they end up screwing themselves out of much bigger gains because of it...just sit tight...if you believe it will fizzle, wait for a much bigger push before you consider the short...otherwise, you end up like the poor suckers over at CHCI
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