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Deewar25

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Re: stevo51 post# 12643

Monday, 09/08/2008 6:40:43 PM

Monday, September 08, 2008 6:40:43 PM

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per Masters

Once Ike approaches the coast on Friday, the total heat content of the ocean declines, and the shear is forecast to rise to a moderate 15-20 knots. The GFDL and HWRF models respond by weakening Ike to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall in Texas. This is a reasonable forecast, but our skill in forecasting intensity is low, and Ike could just as easily be a Category 1 or Category 4 hurricane at landfall.
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