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Yes, SIAF still has great potential - the big joker is of course what the OS will be by the time they distribute.
Maybe we'll get a better/updated view on the fair value of TRW when they give us the "update" (targeting this month). However, from the Q1-report we know that SIAFs 36.6% stake in TRW generated income of 3.66MUSD in Q4/17 and 3.78MUSD in Q1/18. If that is representative then that means TRW has an income of 40MUSD/year (and should be increasing as RD probably is very well to give you some insight on). Assuming a P/E of 10 that should give us $4/TRW-share (or $2/SIAF-share with the current OS). If TRW gets the growth story going before listing a P/E should be very conservative (which The Swede has given some numbers to earlier), as well as TRWs income increasing.
We'll just have to cross our fingers and hope that we (soon) have seen the last of financial mismanagement.
That depends on the remaining (if any) dilution (expect more, and be pleasantly surprised if there is no more).
Currently SIAFs OS is at 40.3 million whereof 8.4 million are collateral shares (which aren't entitled dividend, although SIAF has been a bit back and forth whether those shares will get dividend and have to return it or whether they will not receive it in the first place).
SIAF owns 36.6% of TRW and plans on distributing half, i.e 18.3% of TRW. TRW itself has very close to 100 million shares, so that's 18.3 million TRW-shares to be distributed (and the remaining 18.3 million to be kept at SIAF).
If we take the 18.3 million TRW-shares (to be distributed) and divide it by (40.3-8.4) million SIAF-shares entitled to the dividend we get 0.57 TRW-shares/SIAF-share. However, I would expect more dilution so round this number down to 0.5 or lower (0.5 suggests a total OS of 45 million shares disregarding the collateral shares). So that is 500 TRW-shares for your 1000 SIAF-shares.
A fair valuation of TRW (one year ago or so) was at 3.4$/TRW-share, which should have gone up somewhat now, but reduce it to $3 to (hopefully) be on the conservative side. I.e the value of your TRW-dividend for your 1000 SIAF-shares will be 500x3=1500 (I believe that price was targeting a P/E of 10-12 which hopefully is conservative as well as the E-part of the equation to increase)
Regarding selling the TRW-shares it seems that you will NOT be able to sell them now (unless you find a buyer yourself, but that will probably be to much of a hazzle). The goal is to list TRW at HKSE. If so, expect H2/2020 best case (although the fair value of TRW should be higher then, especially if/after TRW gets external financing through the loan and/or pre-IPO).
So now we know that retailers using Avanza has increased their stake with 500k shares, or 4% of the increased OS. To me that seems like SIAF weren't able to attract a lot of new shareholders (at least shareholders using Avanza that is, although this might be the pension/investment-accounts only). I guess that shows that Solomon needs to put actions behind his words before the market will start to trust him, and that not even the cash dividend policy itself was action enough - or that retail is too scared to invest while the dilution happens.
Dead all day long and then 180k shares traded in the last 8 minutes (with both buyers and sellers taking the initiative). Strange?
Thanks.
fwb I've discussed SDRL with Mark (on Shareville) since he used a falling PPS as evidence of SIAF being a scam. My point was that if a collapsing PPS only can be explained by the company being a scam, which was the hidden premise, then surely SDRL is a bigger scam than SIAF...
There is actually similarities between SDRL and SIAF (both were hit by collapsing prices, and neither were able to handle its debt through cash flow). There are differences as well though, which makes SIAF more vulnerable than SDRL (i.e Solomon), but at the moment the PPS of SDRL has still fallen more than the PPS of SIAF.
RD; What is your take on how much of the issues at AF4 that is caused by lack of financing and how much is caused by other issues (issues with prawns, the hurricane, window/sunlight-design etc).
Since they signaled "no" growth it seems that they don't expect any major improvement at AF4 without external financing - so the question (assuming that they aren't underpromising) is whether this is caused by financial issues or some other issues.
lol Yes, I guess that's the message - or at least that people should take a deep look into SIAF and judge themselves why the PPS is so low The amazing thing is why there is a need to sort to old disproven lies if SIAF is such an obvious scam...
So, to summarise some of the claims; TRW, which doesn't exist and which SIAF doesn't own 36.6% in although it is official in HK, and who doesn't produce anything is struggling with production because Tony (when misquoted) says so. Fascinating that these contradictory claims can be put forth at the same time... However, Tony can't be trusted when he refers to capex or AF1-3, so there needs to be heavy cherry-picking (and Tony isn't lying, which makes it rather challenging since one is supposed to ignore everything he says unless it is something bad), and the issues with the last phases with prawns at AF4 that he refers to is suddenly a truth for all stages of prawns, all aquatic creatures and all farms! (also we are to disregard that Tony refers to proven track-record for AF1-3 and his referral to the filings, but not because he is in on this "scam", but because of some strange reason that noone wants to share the reason behind) Furthermore there is no pictures of TRWs operations, even though there are pictures in busy markets with TRWs name. And so on and so on.
If I am to go by someone's suggestion, I would prefer to go with a seasoned investor who has been to the fascilities and done extensive DD than jump on the "everyone in the whole world is in on the scam"-train where the "evidence" is a low P/B and a falling PPS (which would make Seadrill an even worse scam than SIAF since Seadrill has fallen more PPS-wise than SIAF).
Well, it would be better to underpromise and overdeliver than what they've done in the past and we should expect some improvement from TRW and maybe others as well, but a 50% increase in profits doesn't seem very realistic to me.
Virtually any western CEO would easily make the PPS multiple. The cash dividend policy has a western taste to it, but so far it is countered by the dumping (just imagine what the PPS would have been at without it - and with it a guaranteed lawsuit)
He’ll reply by referring you to Peter
Good luck I think you’ll have the support from pretty much every retail, but I don’t think we’ll be successful
Not much besides hope and wait that we can do... You could try to create havoc and hence make them feel your wrath (telling Merkur about the employment agreement that doesn’t match the admission document could be fun), but I’m not sure there’s much that retail can do
Not much we can do while the 55 cents batch is being dumped - retail are unable to pick up all these shares anyways so the new big buyer decides the PPS. So unless you want to take actions to have Solomon removed the only thing you can do is hope and wait...
How long does it take to get FINRA-approval of a cash dividend? I.e will it be a valid excuse if they miss the target of Q4 for the cash dividend?
Nah, they have to try to "hide" it - dumping 5M in one day when the average volume is 200-300k would be too suspicious...
Having many days with higher-than-normal-volume that all are traded at 39 cents (ish) when other trades are trading higher seems suspicious to me, but it can of course be that everyone that bought at 25-30 cents now want to dump their shares into the hands of this big new buyer that offers 39 cents.
snow lol Good point Also, it would be wiser for him to wait to sell shares till the PPS goes up (from the cash dividend policy) instead of halting the PPS by dumping straight away - now the PPS is more or less stuck until the dumping is gone.
It looks prearranged to me; the big buyer has settled on a price of 39 cents, not increasing his bid when shares are trading higher, and (more important) also not lowering his bid to get as low a price as possible.
Let's just hope the buyer is more eager than the dumper.
Rather obvious now that they have a pre-arranged deal for 39 cents, no? Is that even allowed considering that the PPS wanted to move up? Anyway I guess that mean that we're stuck at 39 cents (for better or worse) until the 55 cent batch is over with.
Another surprise is that the OS seems to be somewhat equally spread between Merkur and OTC (Merkur having 18 534 913 shares now). It seemed to me that the dumping were occuring at OTC only, especially the last few days (almost weeks) with hardly any volume on Merkur, but yet the count on Merkur has increased a lot (although I haven't paid attention so the last increases might have been on OTC only).
Thanks.
So he needs another 5MUSD (or whatever) apart from the 55 cents batch? That's not very comforting...
Why would TRW set up locations in July if they rather could have used the money as WC for TFA&B? I think Solomon is trying to take too much in one bite again
By "transfer" you mean that TRW should use the loan to buy TFA&B? Transferring something that you own x% of (well, have a deposit in) to another company that you own y% of, while the other owners of the second company owns nothing of the first company seems to require someone to put a lot of cash on the table (or the TFA&B-owner to acquire shares in TRW).