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Re: Punchinello post# 141148

Wednesday, 06/20/2018 3:41:40 PM

Wednesday, June 20, 2018 3:41:40 PM

Post# of 163719
That depends on the remaining (if any) dilution (expect more, and be pleasantly surprised if there is no more).

Currently SIAFs OS is at 40.3 million whereof 8.4 million are collateral shares (which aren't entitled dividend, although SIAF has been a bit back and forth whether those shares will get dividend and have to return it or whether they will not receive it in the first place).

SIAF owns 36.6% of TRW and plans on distributing half, i.e 18.3% of TRW. TRW itself has very close to 100 million shares, so that's 18.3 million TRW-shares to be distributed (and the remaining 18.3 million to be kept at SIAF).

If we take the 18.3 million TRW-shares (to be distributed) and divide it by (40.3-8.4) million SIAF-shares entitled to the dividend we get 0.57 TRW-shares/SIAF-share. However, I would expect more dilution so round this number down to 0.5 or lower (0.5 suggests a total OS of 45 million shares disregarding the collateral shares). So that is 500 TRW-shares for your 1000 SIAF-shares.

A fair valuation of TRW (one year ago or so) was at 3.4$/TRW-share, which should have gone up somewhat now, but reduce it to $3 to (hopefully) be on the conservative side. I.e the value of your TRW-dividend for your 1000 SIAF-shares will be 500x3=1500 (I believe that price was targeting a P/E of 10-12 which hopefully is conservative as well as the E-part of the equation to increase)

Regarding selling the TRW-shares it seems that you will NOT be able to sell them now (unless you find a buyer yourself, but that will probably be to much of a hazzle). The goal is to list TRW at HKSE. If so, expect H2/2020 best case (although the fair value of TRW should be higher then, especially if/after TRW gets external financing through the loan and/or pre-IPO).

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