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I agree market over reacted and Microsoft is an excellent buy in here. Like some of the other excellent posts on this board, the numbers were not that bad to justify such a drop.
The chart looks awesome especially the Wilder's RSI which just broke above the 30 line. Hasn't crossed yet but still looks pretty sweet and it did it on a nice volume surge.
Barron's just reported that a lot of big traders are buying up Microsoft in here. Source: How Investors Can Play Starbucks and Microsoft - Barron's
Awesome relative strength in AstraZeneca. I think that suggests accumulation by smart money. AZN just broke above its pivot level when most stocks are breaking below their pivots.
New agreements show AstraZeneca making move on genome editing technology. That's the future of drugs in my opinion.
Story: AstraZeneca to Harness Benefits of Genome-Editing Technology
Average price target of $7.40 by analysts = Brokerages Set Ariad Pharmaceuticals Price Target at $7.40
Rumors that bigger firms like Eli Lilly are willing to pay up to $20 a share for the stock = Ariad attracts attention of Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline and Shire
That's pretty awesome hype. Whether you believe it all or not, it's still awesome hype that you got to appreciate. Here's the problem: dangerous market right now. If market continues to go lower over next few days, may get a better entry price after today's (January 28, 2015) long upper shadow gravestone doji. Be careful but yeah, I get the gambit on this one.
Good luck and hope you nail it.
Shorting grains on a rising US dollar looks like a pretty nice swing short trade. On the London Exchange there is a short grains ETF. However, US markets don't have that. You can short an ETN JJG which tracks grains.
I'm thinking that if the Federal Reserve doesn't move to defend (devalue) the US dollar, then the farming sector will be the next sector to collapse behind energy. By farming I mean grains. Grains are a major export market for the U.S.
Obviously this would have been a better trade last week but I think the chart of JJG shows more downside with a target of the October 2014 low.
More research on this swing short trade:
US Deflation on the Horizon
Shorting Grains on a Rising US Dollar
Look at how it was up today on a mostly down day. I'm thinking it's just sold out and basing. It's almost worth buying and putting in a limit order to sell at like a +10% pop because buyout rumors concerning BBRY are probably going to continue. So next rumor that hits, stock pops, wham, quick money. Probably too risky but sooo tempting.
Beef holding its value well in rising US dollar environment. COW may be an interesting play but might be a little early. Would prefer candle over candle reversal on good volume before considering an entry.
Forecast for beef prices is up: Live Cattle Could Bounce
A trend that might interest weekend warriors is the heavy buying in European ETFs, especially in the wake of the ECB QE announcement. I'm playing it in EURL because I like to live dangerously, and stupid I might add ;)
Even Robert Shiller thinks the ECB QE program can lift Europe out of deflation.
Full report: Smart Money Moving Into European ETFs
Lake Shore Gold chart looks pretty awesome as it tests the all important psychological 200 day moving average. Like how cheap they can get it out of the ground and produce it as well.
Lake Shore Gold In Strong Uptrend and Testing 200 Day MA
BlackBerry rumor is a good risk/reward ratio here when you think about it. Notice how BBRY has been going sideways since July of 2014. This seems to limit the downside risk. On the upside, LOTS of potential here if it turns out to be true. I like it.
Major financial firms pumping 3D Systems over the last few months. I like the oversold stock chart and think that 3D Systems is a leaner company with better valuations than in the past. It's burned a lot of traders though in 2014 after falling more than -70% for the year.
I think it's probably too early to go long for most amateur swing traders but worth putting on the watchlist if it starts to move.
Stock Market Crash 2015 if the Federal Reserve does not move to defend the US dollar. The economy will crash in 2016. The probability that the Federal Reserve will devalue the US dollar in order to defend it in the currency wars just went way up after last week.
Below is an excerpt from the weekly Saturday show broadcast on YouTube where I discuss the rising dollar and the price of oil. If you're interested in this, make sure to read the full report which goes into more detail with more charts.
Yes, timing is everything. Notice how I wait to talk about something until closer to its anticipated event. Talk about something too early, and it gets lost in the shuffle of information. Talk about something too early, and you get trapped sitting in a stock for too long. Talk about something too late, and you are chasing and buying high. Timing is everything in trading. Good luck.
With oil futures pointing to a rebound by year end, I think it's time to add DIG to the watchlist. I'm not saying that when the market opens it's time to rush into DIG. What I'm saying is that with peak supply oil expected to hit by April of 2015, it's time to start stalking various oil stocks for a swing long entry. At least that's what the oil futures market for January of 2016 is telling us.
Also, I think if the Federal Reserve moves to defend the US dollar (devalues it), oil could rip higher. Here is an excerpt from this week's show where I discuss the swing long oil trade:
Stock market prediction for week of January 24 2014 with trade ideas and trends.
FAA catalyst of all airlines needing to implement real-time tracking by 2020. I really like Globalstar's solution, "space based" ADS-B solution. Not a pretty stock, lots of bashers because it's burned a lot of people with stock dilution, but nice catalyst here.
Full Story: Globalstar Stock and Aircraft Tracking by 2020 Catalyst
Here's why MU was down before, it's all about future earnings not past. The reason MU sold off was that 30 days ago, the forecast EPS was $0.90, today it's $0.78. Notice how within about 7 trading days of the revised lower EPS forecast, the stock dropped nearly perfectly in line with the lower EPS. It's a very efficient market that priced in lower EPS growth. At the same time, the rest of the market was selling off so the market probably overreacted a little on the downside and buyers like myself and others stepped in to play the candle over candle reversal.
That's psychologically tough to be in a stock as long as you have if you are use to swing trading shorter term. Hang in their brother. Hopefully fundamentals will eventually rule the day and it will reward you nicely.
Goldman Sachs raised target from $8 to $9 today, looking good and so close to Resurrection Cross:
Full Story: Rite Aid Stock and How To Profit from the Affordable Care Act
Lumber looks good to me. Making a series of higher opens. Relative strength is good versus many other commodities.
I think time is on our side in this stock.
Yeah but it's a perma-bear blog. That's how its marketed and its meant for glass is half empty guys. As a trader, I frown on anyone or anything that has a permanent bias either bearish or bullish. Nothing is always a good buy. Nothing is always a good sell. We trade the swing. I think if that article was on a more reputable, neutral blog that published both bullish and bearish articles, then it would gain more transaction amongst mainstream traders. But that's just my opinion right now and that's subject to change on a moments notice ;)
Yeah, check out the few commodities that are bucking the downtrend like lumber. Good catalyst too.
Yeah Fib, way to go. I might actually stay in this stock a little longer than my usual swing trade. Not sure yet, gotta watch it more but looking hot.
Cocoa takes big move down today because of decreased demand for chocolate, especially in Europe, and greater cocoa production brought online in West Africa. It is a classic situation of decreased demand, and increased supply. If not with a commodity broker to short cocoa directly, or you are in the U.S., you can short the Cocoa ETF NIB.
Full story: Cocoa ETF NIB Uptrend Fizzles
Lumber does a candle over candle reversal and nearly a perfect Bullish Kicking pattern on news that slowly rising housing starts in the United States coupled with falling timber harvests in British Columbia and Quebec will push world lumber prices to record levels by 2017.
I like lumber for a swing long play.
Full story: Timber ETF CUT Swing Long on Lumber Candle Over Candle
Sweet oversold RSI and cross, attempting a candle over candle reversal off pivot S1.
Good catalyst of 3D NAND chip coming in second half of 2015.
More info here: Micron Technology Stock Oversold
Soybean short for a quick move down on USDA report that suggests big surplus in soybeans. That is I'm relying on the interpretation of Alison Rice: Why Soybeans Look Like an Excellent Swing Short Play
Shorting SOYB for a quick short term swing move down. Late on the trade. Should have found the Alison Rice report earlier last week but think I can still scalp it.
These oil crash ripple effects are spreading through...
the economy and around the world.
I have a hard time believing that at some point, since no one wants to cut back production, it doesn't hasten the eventual depletion of oil after peak oil.
Video excerpt from the full weekly Saturday show on YouTube where I talk about these ripple effects spreading through the U.S. economy and around the world as a result of the oil price drop.
US Retail Sales plunged and that's important because...
Much of the mainstream financial media has been running stories that the drop in the price of oil was good for retail sales and consumer spending. That thesis is NOT supported by facts.
Oil has been falling since July and started picking up its descent in September. We have had plenty of time, and data, to see the drop in oil start to show up in Retail Sales. Not only did it not show up in the US Retail Sales report last week, it actually fell by the most in a year! I talk more about the drop in retail sales in the video below. This is an excerpt from the full weekly Saturday show that airs on YouTube.
The event with the greatest probability of moving markets next week, in my opinion, is the ECB Announcement on January 22, 2015.
I absolutely love it man. TNA and TZA rock! Pure chart reading and none of the other BS like you said.
Right on and well said. I was thinking the market would go lower as of Thursday, but after Friday, back into sideways channel that goes all the way back to November. Too evenly matched between Bulls and Bears. As of today, and I don't say this lightly or too often, I have no idea which way market is going to break next week so I'm staying on the sidelines and in cash for now.
Elder System sell on the weekly chart. Renko sell brick. McClellan Oscillator sell signal on the NYSE. And the TICK suggests the complete, total, and absolute absence of institutional trader buying. Me thinks it's going lower too.
LOL, love it!
Bears targeting XLF. I like FAZ for the catalyst of a flattening yield curve. Prefer 5% to 10% swing then get out quickly. My opinion is that the Federal Reserve is not going to let the yield curve flatten too much.
I completely blew this trade. Was in, got spooked out on the headfake to the downside, then 2 hours after I sold, it was up +20%. Could have, should have, would have...
I have trouble getting in sync with the swings on this hot potato.