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When the discussion here remains on sagent points rather than rose-colored, pie-in-the-sky, cheerleading, koolaid sipping rampant speculation, the board is almost a pleasure to read.
One Down, two to go
It was just meant to be somewhat self depricating and humorous... as in "I'm a sucker for owning STEH". Unfortunately the handle was somewhat precient in my case
Yes, as stated numerous times, I have a major position here. I wouldn't waste my time reading or posting here if I didn't.
I am not so much negative as realistic. The cheerleading is generally based on things Peter lets slip to people and it has been my experience that while he is very very good at promotion, he is not nearly as good at running the company.
I have also noted that much of the things he tells folks are incredibly optimistic and seldom either happpen at all or happen differently than suggested... I used to give him the benefit of the doubt on this stuff but not so much anymore. I don't believe in deception and daily I see posters on here regurgitating things I know they've heard from there and I often counter that with a more conservative viewpoint... if that is negative then so be it.
To me the most negative thing one can do is to say you are going to do one thing and then do another.
Bill WHitmore is probably the single most valuable asset Sunncomm possess.
My sources say we're still in the hunt.
The buying was done AHEAD of the announcement as everyone was expecting news... small wonder then that it sold off as there wern't enough buyers left AFTER the news was released. A classic buy the rumor sell the news, event.
Good post and right on the money.. especially the part about me having my numbers correct!!! lol
SIRI is a listed fully reporting company.. you are comparing apples and oranges. Sunncomm will NEVER get any institutional buying until they become a good corporate citizen.. thats just how the game is played, like it or not.
You are comparing apples and oranges.. SIRI at least is a real company with revenues, filings on a real exchange and yes... wildly overvalued and also suffering from far too many shares outstanding.
I picked .18 because that was our most recnet high and a natural inflextion point... I see nothing that has changed since then.
The iPod stuff was always dependent on Apple, unless you wanted to be like Macrovision and RealAudio and cheat, so compatibility isn't an issue, the negotiations are. If Apple were to agree tomorrow, then we could/would have iPod compatibility in a mtter of weeks.
yeah... what you said
yeah.. what you said
My limited understanding of the negotiations is that much of this is political and Apple flexing their muscle... ie you negotiate for better terms with your small provider, understanding that your contract will MAKE them as a company.
The problem folks, is that you all simply don't have enough buy power left to move this on your own... you need NEW buyers and there hasn't been an event yet that would trigger that. Do you think anyone besides us is looking at Sunncomm today? Is the chief analyst at Merrill checking out this .07 cent upstart? Are the major mutual fund groups out of Boston looking to take a position in a non-reporting, pink sheet, kiss-of-death stock? I hardly think so.
On the other hand, were you to announce something like iPod compatibility and suddenly it's a whole new ball game... it would be a MUCH better situation though to have the corporate mess resolved BEFORE that event were to occur... I guarnatee you anyone looking at the oddity of QTIG/SCMI on a professional level, would be gagging.
If we stabalize in the .06 - .07 range for now and build a base here, that would be just fine.
** PR **
This was a well written PR and no doubt not penned by Peter as this does not fit his style... almost gives one hope that things are improving
The numbers are indeed conservative as they do not factor in anything from Universal. You have to start somewhere and revenues are revenues at the end of the day. If they can fix a few of the corporate issues then we might have a real company on our hands.
The Apple stuff changes almost on a daily basis so while there is always hope there, it is by no means certain we'll nail this with them. If we do manage to pull off the Apple iPod compatibility then we will suddenly be seen as a real player and this would mark a major sea change in Sunncomm's fortunes as the rest of the labels would almost be forced to play ball.
Congrats to everyone long... this fits with what I was told and based on my sources you can expect some other significant events to transpire shortly.
** MATH **
Using your figures for revenues and assuming zero costs or taxes (unrealistic at best) this would give you an eps as follows:
4,350,000/440,000,000 = .00988
So our eps could be as high as nearly 1 cent assuming no costs or taxes (ie the figure is lower)
All stocks should trade at some multiple of earnings but what factor to apply here? It would be reasonable to use a similar multiple to that which the sector is providing already, in the case using the multiple given to Macrovision, to wit based on the key stats on Yahoo you can use either the trailing PE (38) or the forward PE (23) as your factor in determining what the share price should be.
I hate to pop any balloons here, but these are the numbers below unless I've made an error in my math and I'm sure nit picker Alj will quickly point that out to all of us if indeed I have. Understand that these are OPTIMISTIC numbers in that I am not removing anything for costs or taxes.
23 x .00988 = 0.227 share price
38 x .00988 = 0.375 share price
So fair value would be either 22 cents or as high as 37 cents if we were to be valued similarly to Macrovision. Perhaps now you can see why the $4 figure is absurd wishful thinking.
If Macrovision ever believes Sunncomm is a threat, there will be a buyout offer the next day... this is ultimately how you will know they have succeeded.
Trust me I know... they do not have this sort of cash so the entire thought process is unwarranted and by the time they do have the cash from revenues, the pps will be dramatically higher limiting how many shares they would be able to retire.
The best bet is to reduce the total number of shares during a merger with QTIG... sort of a reverse without the reverse.
The same response I would have if the liberal hate-America first, establishment were to apologize for their cowardly unpatriotic attacks on our country and their consistent undermining of our troops while claiming to be "concerned" for their welfare.
In other words, nothing but stunned silence.
But it is a mute point at best and will never happen any more than we will ever see $4. And from a business point of view those funds could be used in much better ways to advance shareholder and company value by expanding our copy-protection scheme into DVD's.
I'm guessing conservatively over a period not more than two years, but the market can over value things for a time just as it has often undervalued Sunncomm... there are plenty of other pinkies with more value and far less potential. I lay that blame directly on management however, as I have made no secret. That some here continue to sing their praises amazes me even more than the liberal movements dissapointment over success in Iraq.
My sources, unlike management, are unimpeachable and you will get no cheerleading pumping from me. Numerous risks remain especially to a technology solution like this that could be leapfrogged in an instant.
I was much more enthusiastic when I believed Dark Noise was going to be pursued successfully... now it has been relegated to the asheap of history, I wonder if it was always just a dodge or was ever for real. At the time I gave management considerably more benefit of the doubt than I do now.
>> That halo of reason is starting to slip, Stehsucker. Make your points -- but no need to be insulting as you do. People hear you a lot more clearly when you extend them simple courtesy. <<
An absurd post was made suggesting that $4 was a realistic goal and it does no one justice to allow a fiction of this caliber to remain unquestioned. Indeed this is just the sort of inflamatory posting that creates wholy unrealistic expections in the eyes of shareholders causing them to suffer losses.
I challenged Alj to actually run the "math" on Sunncomm's potential revenues and thus eps from which one could derive a potentially reasonable share price based on industry PE norms (ie Macrovision)
That my post was removed does not surprise me anymore than that he refused to do as I asked. I didn't begin this war of words and I'll make no disguise regarding my disdain for those who routinly slander my motives and or my position (long) in this security with apparent impunity... I notice THOSE posts are never removed.
Something is fishy in Sunncomm's past that they don't want aired... that's why they can't/won't become fully reporting, there can be no other explanation for events that have transpired... on the other hand, QTIG is already fully reporting, so I see the shell as a vehicle to roll Sunncomm into and then via the QTIG shell, become fully reporting and lose the baggage of whatever happened before at Sunncomm that they don't want public.
I was simply rounding up... if you think there is a significant diff between 450 and 500 then that would explain why you own SCMI in the first place and cheerlead with the best of them... in most circles this is known as MASSIVE dilution and yet you even draw a distinction between 440 and 450... rotflol.
Maybe I should buy back the several million shares I sold in the eights?
Btw, what is 440mill x $4 equal, anyway? Our market cap? And that seems reasonable for a small pink sheet company with barely any revenues? Take a wild stab at your best guess at the MAXIMUM number of CD's we might be expected to eventually protect and then use a realistic number like .035 or .04 cents per CD and tell me what number you come up with. Does that support a $4 price in this Universe or is there an alternate dimension I should visit for Sunncomm fair value?
Plenty of good points regarding stock buybacks.. wasn't arguing that point, simply that SUnncomm doesn't have enough cash to buyback a significant portion of 500mill shares so it would only be a gesture and a wasted one at that since it would rob funds from other much needed advances.
Management diluted the crap outta this stock and it would be great to see it unwound, but it's not a reasonable nor realistic alternative.
Make no mistake, I remain a harsh critic of management and am in no way a cheerleader now for this stock. There have always been potentials here and that is why we're here, but to date management hasn't lived up to much of it.
A buyback would be insane. It would accomplish next to nothing as they have very little cash to squander and it would rob from the captial required to push into the DVD market... where I have always believed we will have an easier sell than with CD's.
Nearly all DVD's are already copy-protected(Macrovision) so you do not have to convince anyone of the merrits of doing so, simply present them with a better mousetrap. By now it should be obvious that Macrovisions copy-protection scheme for DVD's is remarkably easy to overcome, just do a google search for "DVD ripper program" and see how many hits you turn up.
Secondly, Macrovision is not beloved by the Movie industry.
I wouldn't be expecting any one single big event but rather a collection of smaller yet significant steps that probably initially will be viewed by some skeptically but this time does indeed appear to be different.
You will never see $4, that is simply such a ridiculous notion that anyone proposing it must immediately be seen not as a serious person. Barring a reverse split, $1 would be a reasonable extreme price to contemplate and hope for.
This is not a get rich quick stock, they have plenty of uncertainty and doubt to overcome and even the $1 figure can never be attained, imo, without fixing the corporate structure I have bored so many of you with so often.
I would expect events to unfold almost immediately...
jeez, can't have it both ways can u?
The company, management has behaved in a disgraceful fashion with regards to shareholders and proper corporate citizenship. I have never wavered from this view while still recognizing the potential here should they actually pull it off in spite of handicapping themselves.
And I am not soooo positive, just positive that my sources are accurate and based on what I believe I know, we should see a substantial bump... notice I'm not prediciting the absurd levels many here seem to enjoy, but realistic numbers that we have even seen recently.
I'm a friggen LONG here, so excuse me if I feel management has placed my investment at risk for no logical reason other than embracing horrible advice from their genius advisors.
Three things... I'm guessing .18cents again.
I think we could get more if we were listed and filing of course.
Ohh my, surely it shouldn't fall on ME to reassure the cheerleader faithful here!! However, my sources, which are more legit than management and I have to smile when I even use that word, suggest that all may indeed not be lost.
Not that I care to go into any detail for obvious reasons, but I think you're about to get some nice spec value back here.
Will wonders never cease
Sure that's true, but you are speaking hypothetically. In the real world you have to somehow get these online distribution portals to embrace and PAY for the use of your technology.
Plz name even one online distribution portal that has signed on with us? Plz explain what possible motivation the portal has to embrace SevereBurn... besides pressure from a major lable like BMG that could turn off the flow of music from their libraries.
Just because Zach wrote those words doesn't make it true until what I wrote above comes to be... unless of course you are simply willing to twist anything written that seems positive, to support your viewpoint that Sunncomm is the greatest and you'll all soon be rich.
Hey I wasn't the one who started the name calling but if you want to have a real discussion fine, just leave the pom poms at home... we have a very speculative stock here, one in which management has not behaved very well from normal corporate perspective and in an industry fraught with turmoil and uncertainty.
I do believe that what they have accomplished to date is nothing short of miraculous but just because we've won a few battles and you WANT to believe we will win the war, doesn't make it so.
A realistic assessment of Sunncomm would be enough to scare most shareholders and yet the few posters who point out legitimate issues (ie bashing) are ridiculed and attacked repeatedly as if you all belong to some sort of giant Sunncomm Stepford wives thing.
What does it take before you people stop believeing anything that is told to you by folks with a reason and an agenda to tell you these things and who have a long record of at best exaggerating and hping numerous things that never come to pass or do so differntly than advertized?
My understanding on DarkNoise is that we handed it over to a University hoping they could fix it... I am certainly not an expert on this and if anyone has better info to share, plz do so.
IMO DarkNoise was a revolutionary approach. The concept is sound, so I believe someone like Dolby Labs that has years of expereince in the field of psycho acoustics, could make it workable.
BMG has had MediaMax for well over a year, has seen countless results showing little customer dissatisfaction and an increase in revenues due to a far smaller drop off of sales after several weeks, almost assuredly attributable to the MediaMax copy protection and yet BMG still just dribbles out a few CD using the technology.
Anyone recall 2004 was the year we would encode over a Billion CD's? Now we have Universal supposedly in the mix with the most tepid and awkward press release I have ever seen. I'm not sure of another public company that would have issued such a release.
Also, the iTunes distribution problem isn't an analog hole issue it is an un-copyright protected issue and one that frankly I felt confident a year ago would drive BMG to force Apple to embrace SevereBurn just to ensure that all of their media was protected regardless of what venue it was being distributed via.
IMO to date we've simply been lucky that Macrovision has fumbled the ball on every play... sooner or later they are going to wisen up and use some of their vast monetary resources to buy a seat at the table.
So in other words, the entire library of BMG music is available on p2p sites for those who would download music illegally, while the music purchased by people who already obey copyright laws is protected from those same people suddenly having a change of heart.
I see... I can breath a lot easier now knowing we have such ironclad coverage. Thanks for that brilliant yet myopic dissertation.
iTunes sells BMG songs everyday with NO COPY PROTECTION. Those same songs find their way onto public p2p sites such as kazza and there is nothing MediaMax5 or SevereBurn does that will ever prevent that.
Darknoise was the only viable solution and it is apparently a bust as they are now choosing to not breath a word about it despite hyping it for over a year... suddenly they make like H.G. Wells and it's invisible, like it never existed.
Plz explain to me how SevereBurn impacts p2p usage?
I can easily understand how a legal online source such as iTunes could use SevereBurn to encode downloaded tunes with copy-protection but the p2p sites are not legal distributors of copyrighted material and have no reason and in fact every reason not to use SevereBurn technology.
>> Looks like SunnComm has p2p covered. <<
How pray tell, did you arrive at this optimistic conclusion? Btw, any of Sunncomm's files can be played through a computer and the analog wavefore can then be re-digitized by the sound card without any copy protection... this has always been known as the analog hole and was something that DarkNoise eliminated.
Yes the resulting DAD digital copy is inferior but with some of the really high end sound cards the degradation in quality is barely identifiable to even trained ears.
DarkNoise is still a viable concept, but it will take some real magicians to make it work... a job for someone like Dolby Labs rather than a University.
DarkNoise was the ultimate p2p killer and would have resulted in us being bought out by Microsoft immediately. As with most things hyped and promised from scmi, that is now nowhere to be seen or heard of.
Are those rhetorical questions? lol
don't say we, YOU were too busy cheerleading to listen to any of the concerns "other" posters have made. I've been concerned and warning of this sort of possibility for over a year and getting labeled a basher or a Macrovision long, as my reward.
Unless he's got Apple news in his quiver, advantage shorts...
Right, they are $20 a share and not by accident. I've never said Macrovision has superior technology to Sunncomm(yet), simply that they have the resources to erase our somewhat tenuous lead if we let them.
To date managment has had a myopic view believing that running the company LIKE a company, doesn't matter and their genius advisors apparently signed off on this nonsense. If they are now having a change of heart, so much the better and lets hope it's not too late.
The financial well being of a potential partner DOES matter and real companies, Universal, Sony, Apple etc, pay attention to the details. One of the things real companies look for in a partner are the financial resources necessary to ensure that not only can they do what they say they can but that they will be in business 12 months after they decide to throw them their business.
A balance sheet is a beautiful thing when you have something nice to show... we don't, advantage Macrovision.
Another clue to a corporations well being is how well it manages itself as a corporate citizen... do they pay their bills on time, do they file on time, etc? If a company is seen as unable to accomplish these relatively minor requirments, what confidence can there be that they will be able to complete any contract signed with them?
We don't file at all of course and we're not even trading on a real exchange, advantage Macrovision.
>> just wait and see <<
Wow, aren't you the little cheerleader?? Thats what most of us have been doing for YEARS now... waiting and seeing nothing except hype and false promises.
So now you crptically offer, yet again, more bold talk(hype) and vague innuendo that there is "something" about to happen. Sorry been hearing that crap for years now, I would prefer some meat & potatoes for a change.
I said all along that Macrovision has the resources, unlike Sunncomm, to play catch up and still win the game if we dick around long enough giving them a chance.
It looks like that may be happening... meanwhile our press releases sound more like an apology than a triumph... embarrassing.
The trump car we could still play, would be iPod compatibility and I will concede that this event, should it occur, would radically shift the balance of power... right now I would score it advantage Macrovision.