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Tuesday, February 01, 2005 10:44:42 AM
Using your figures for revenues and assuming zero costs or taxes (unrealistic at best) this would give you an eps as follows:
4,350,000/440,000,000 = .00988
So our eps could be as high as nearly 1 cent assuming no costs or taxes (ie the figure is lower)
All stocks should trade at some multiple of earnings but what factor to apply here? It would be reasonable to use a similar multiple to that which the sector is providing already, in the case using the multiple given to Macrovision, to wit based on the key stats on Yahoo you can use either the trailing PE (38) or the forward PE (23) as your factor in determining what the share price should be.
I hate to pop any balloons here, but these are the numbers below unless I've made an error in my math and I'm sure nit picker Alj will quickly point that out to all of us if indeed I have. Understand that these are OPTIMISTIC numbers in that I am not removing anything for costs or taxes.
23 x .00988 = 0.227 share price
38 x .00988 = 0.375 share price
So fair value would be either 22 cents or as high as 37 cents if we were to be valued similarly to Macrovision. Perhaps now you can see why the $4 figure is absurd wishful thinking.
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