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8k done deal $50m value makes ehth existing 400k Medicare book worth $800m
cat outta the bag here asc 606 starts now ehth booking $100M+ in profit this year and $150M 2019 , $200M 2020...
cat outta the bag at ehth new asc 606 will have them booking over $100M in profit annually starting now MC only $350M
1m Medicare and 1m non Medicare enrollees in the works
Ifp back to 1m enrolled at ehth nearly half want help not from healthcare.gov
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20180119.425761/full/
at least $50 per share here
new ASC 606 will take their $160M annual expense and spread over 36 months reducing quarterly expenses from $40M to about $13M and revenue will be booked all at once per enrollment should do 100,000 new Medicare at least in 2018 or $100M rev and another $100M rev from all other segments so $200M rev and $40M expense 2018. Cashflow should be positive $10M 2018, $30M 2019, $50M 2020.
new acquisition valued up to $50M for 26k medicare book (medsup book is about $3.5M pure profit per year acquired will pay about 5 years thus the $20M acq cost but then integrate their tech and expand this book next 2 years extra $30M)
EHTH now has 400K medicare book which would then be up to $800M discount 25% of book in the past so $600M
IFP market still worth $100M here( could get back to pre ACA with marketing) (who would use Healthcare.gov when you can get the same $0 to $75 per month subdizied plan from EHTH and also get an indemnity/gap plan from EHTH to cover up the huge deductible on many of these subsidized plans. Literally every Subsidized at Healthcare.gov should buy that plan at EHTH and pick up an guaranteed issue indemnity for $25 per month and about double the commission to EHTH. Equate this to Toggling on travel insurance when purchasing your flight/trip online.
New Packages product worth $150M+ (7700 sold for starters $150 per month each is $14M rev and $3M profit big margins on this stuff and will easily quadruple enrollment in a year or 2.
Small Group worth $100M here
Total is $1050M
ehth just placed $50 valuation on itself calls my friends
on this acquired book medsups pay about $200 per year so they just added about $5M in pure profit per year, 20PE is $100M to the stock...18M O/S is about a $5.00 PPS add.
they did not do the 606 change yet which they said they will announce on March 1.
lets see what the market says, should be a $5.00 PPS add minimum here.
They just placed $50m value on 26k Medicare that mirrors the 400k book ehth now has. That is $800m valuation for their Medicare book alone plus now this $50m on top plus value from ifp. Basically 50 per share valuation.
Huge ah!
100 bagger to go
Enbridge about to make waves here IMO. They want to diversify and already have 5%. Surely they are pushing for a public option if they want to increase their stake here. Key quote from November Jones said mix of equity and bank financing. Willing to bet a bank will go 50% financing if Enbridge does the other 50%.
With 13Mt planned, that's $9B rev/yr and margins are upward of 20% or more. Supports $30B+ valuation and a big win for ENB. I can see a 1B O/S with ENB having 600M after it brings money to the table, Fairfield 300M, rest 100M and PPS 30.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/07/01/enbridge-takes-5-percent-stake-in-planned-offshore-lng-project/
It only went up because on Jan 5 report said delfin would likely not get fid leaving public merger as only route for 2018.
ehth stated on the q3 call they would use 606 to report starting q4 2017. going to be massive....they report mid to late feb.
feb calls may be big and may bigger.
but 30+ will happen no doubt and frankly these guys will be booking $100m profit in 2018 and $125 or more in 2019...playing over 4 years is still $25 to $35M profit annual rate...this should be $40 bucks at this time IMO
https://www.forbes.com/sites/groupthink/2017/08/10/asc-606-is-the-biggest-business-story-youve-never-heard-how-it-will-affect-your-company/#25f99bf41d52
I just wrote one of the 2 analysts on this ticker....CRAZY bad they need to let people know!
Mr. Sommer,
Quick note on EHTH as of Q4 2017. I'm in the IFP and Medicare space and my book mirrors P and L like EHTH. This 606 Accounting change coming now will have EHTH with over a $70M profit for Q4 as they will now be recognizing all revenue and profit when enrolling. So 100,000 new Medicare new enrollees and upward of 100,000 new IFP enrollees may show over $70M. 2018 will likely be $100M+ for all 4 quarters. Of course the catch is this is rev/profit over about an average enrollee lifetime of about 4 years. Nevertheless, I keep reading about how Q4 analysts have EHTH in the old accounting system with a loss in Q4.
Market is going to be WAY off guard when they report unless ahead of this. EHTH has already talked of this on the Q3 call so I'm not sure whey analyst estimates are not out yet for this new Standard.
Bottom line is as a Medicare enrollee signs up, on average they last about 4.5 years and bring about $660 in profit over the 4.5 years with cost of acquisition up front. In the IFP its more like 1.5 lifespan and less profit I think $100 or so per enrollee.
Either way, EHTH on track to "book" $100M or more in profit in 2018, and $125M+ in 2019 and not too hard to see them doing $200M+ annually not far after that.
On top of all of this, Medicare commission has been expanding by CMS at about 3% annually for several years now. It may be more like $700 profit per Medicare enrollee soon if not already as EHTH drives down cost.
We feel like the market is way out of touch with what the reality is at EHTH.
Regards,
Accounting changes....Will show market how profitable it is Medicare 4.5 year e rolled on ave so profit pays out over 4.5.
Easy $60m profit here q4 as now booked all at once Medicare is $660 profit and 100,000 new enrollees for sure q4. Will book $100m plus in 2018 alone here
ulk of it Tobey are that today we essentially recognize revenue and report the business on what is as close to a cash basis as possible. So, we're only recognizing as revenue commissions received in the period that those commissions are received. The new 606 standard requires businesses like ours to in circumstances where there is virtually no service requirement beyond that which we provide at the point of transaction to estimate the lifetime value of that transaction and to recognize all that revenue at the time of the transaction.
So what it means is for a Medicare customer as where it will have the biggest impact on our business, we will be aligning the long-term revenue of each customer as we on a highly analytical basis estimate it and recognize that as revenue and all of the expenses, which we already absorb upfront from a P&L perspective will remain the same and it will show the true from our perspective, longer term or full earnings power of each customer as they come into our platform and become part of the eHealth family.
So, the impact on the P&L from a revenue perspective and an earnings perspective is going to be meaningful.
who got .0012 literally 900x return at 1.00
Wow. IPO in 2017 for a $7B LNG project was for $2.5B and shot to $5.0B in value....Delfin is also a $7B project but seems even better positioned.
That would be friggin $5 to $10 here on IPO
https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Tellurian-plans-7-billion-gas-pipeline-network-12439181.php
biggest part of that article is the research end of story saying of 5 U.S. projects Delfin not on the list to get China finance, will need to go public just like successfully done twice in 2017!
article out saying delfin will likely go public reach the last paragraph 5 projects, those in the know say Delfin won't get its financing from China...will need to go public!
https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#news/article?id=43117789&cdid=A-43117789-11052
Quote:
Asset management firm Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC on Jan. 4 said the market will need final investment decisions on new export capacity in 2018 to be able to meet growing demand expected to balance the market in the early to mid-2020s. Delfin was not named in a list of five U.S. projects Bernstein sees as having the best chance of moving forward.
research firms says Delfin likely not getting FID so will need to go public!
Asset management firm Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC on Jan. 4 said the market will need final investment decisions on new export capacity in 2018 to be able to meet growing demand expected to balance the market in the early to mid-2020s. Delfin was not named in a list of five U.S. projects Bernstein sees as having the best chance of moving forward.
R/M News 1/5/18 LIKELY TO GO PUBLIC!
https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#news/article?id=43117789&cdid=A-43117789-11052
Asset management firm Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC on Jan. 4 said the market will need final investment decisions on new export capacity in 2018 to be able to meet growing demand expected to balance the market in the early to mid-2020s. Delfin was not named in a list of five U.S. projects Bernstein sees as having the best chance of moving forward.
sticky this!
that might be the largest R/M PR I have ever seen....its $7B to build things out....so they need $7B. Says debt and/or equity.
Based on the 13 million ton LNG approval...have to figure $5B here at least...
well Delfin seems to be just an organization, but one that has approved plans for a 3 million ton per year of LNG, ramping to 13 million tons.
I just calculated, 1 million tons is $500M rev.
So, this is a $1.5B per year deal, ramping to $7B per year in the future.
This is unreal....market cap should go billions
ehth 20s
Get January February and may 20 calls IMO
Let's go! Their Medicare portal is worth $2b imo...or $100m profit annually as they get to 1m enrolled...who h is still only out of 70m on medicare!
EHTH 20 calls Jan Feb and May all good IMO about to report record Medicare enrollment and a return to profitability. Massively profitable down the road and back to all time highs IMO into 2019....
Have to think a 50% move to 25 soon
Commission on Medicare raised again for 2018 profit margins expanding here by 3% per year. Market routinely misses on this ticker. Record quarter here just wrapped up 100k new Medicare signed up and 400k total paying $250m profit over the next 5 years.
http://www.psmbrokerage.com/blog/medicare-advantage-commissions-increased-for-2018
no, there are not. read the tea leaves, trumps fcc greenlighted this tech for the betterment of people...think how much better just nursing will be with nurses not wasting time with wires...its horrible in any hospital room today!
no, there are not. read the tea leaves, trumps fcc greenlighted this tech for the betterment of people...think how much better just nursing will be with nurses not wasting time with wires...its horrible in any hospital room today!
? just the medical implications alone is worth $5B at 3 feet. Put transmitter in hospital bed and it charges a myriad of sensors on the body. I was in the hospital the other day...nurses said they spend half their day moving wires around a patient...
15 foot range is in the bank here....just has to be tweaked no big deal...FCC greenlighted the process
this should be way over $100 bucks this AM...FCC just greenlighted their tech...no doubt their 15 foot device gets approved....reports Adam Schefter...we need and Adam Schefter of stocks.....