eHealth, Inc (EHTH)

[VortexSage25]

What do you think about the recent news? https://www.investing.com/news/press-releases/ehealth-supports-final-medicare-advantage-rules-and-rates-for-the-fall-2025-annual-enrollment-period-93CH-3976828

[VortexSage25]

For me personally, the main thesis is still intact. The GOP presidency means the main play is going to accelerate. Did you know that EHTH was the only one with net income for FY2024!!! SLQT and GOCO lost money this year!!, how insane is that?
Mr Market is very wrong with this one, this company has a MOAT, a good balance sheet and after four years they delivered.
The new generation of boomers is going to be more comfortable choosing their health plan online. This company is by definition a COMPOUNDER.

[VortMax]

According to doctor Oz they are going to work to reduce upcoming and limit prior authorizations as well as pay providers more for actual work from his testimony on Friday. Would think this means the money to these plans will shift increasing the fair market value and thus commission rates substantially.

[VortMax]

I think that cost of acquisition will continue to come down, rates payable to ehth will go up, and persistency will go up. So margin expansion. I'd expect margin to increase 3 to 5% annually starting in 2026. Just 10% margin expansion puts them at $50m net or so. There are many ways in which Medicare advantage is going to expand under trump. Long Term they should get to $100m net in less than 5 years. Medicare Advantage commissions rates are up 35% in the last 8 years, they will go up 20% in the next 5. It's a flip to highly profitable here 2027.

[VortexSage25]

Given the current market sentiment do you think that the play is still intact?
If the GOP plans to undercut Medicare spending, more senior people will enroll into Medicare Advantage.....This stock behaved very well under Trump´s first term

[VortMax]

America FIRST right here they are going to supercharge Medicare!!! No more bullshi@

[VortMax]

Doesn't get more American than this company. Helping seniors understand and enroll into Medicare plans. Retention will go up. Commission rates will go up. Online unassisted will go up. They are the future for many on Medicare.

[VortMax]

1b receivables. Same rev in 2025 as 2024 even with less spend on leads. Lower margin due to investments into retention program and non Medicare. TEV of about 17. Market wanted increased 2025 rev and margin. But this is better long term.

[VortexSage25]

They made it! Net income of 10 M for FY 2024. Let´s see how the market behaves.....

[VortexSage25]

The only downside risk that I see is that Soistman is going to retire this year. The main thing that drove the price of EHTH´s stock down was the actions done by previous management. I hope that Mr Soistman delivers at least net income for FY 2024,. This is their chance to reward deep value investors....

[VortMax]

I'm an independent Medicare agent in have 20 close colleagues our average lifetime on Medicare advantage is about 7 years with basic retention practices. EHTH is at 3. With any type of focus they will get to 4 or 5. The future of Medicare is online. Cohorts will have the EHTH website and their log in bookmarked like they do their bank or credit card or auto insurance. Talking a 40% profit margin here...

[VortexSage25]

Q4 results are going to be announced in ten days! My average price is 4.43 $/share. If this company turns profitable after 4 years the stock is going to be at 25 at less. The only risk that I see is that the current CEO is retiring in 2025

[VortMax]

Wow 8 knots owns 25% of shares gonna make billions!

[VortMax]

TEV as of Jan 1 is probably $17+. Nice report. Their 606 will go from from 3 to 4 sooner than later based on easy to initiate programs. That one thing increases rev by 33% and overall profit by probably 20%. Average independents keep clients for 5 years, good ones 10. No reason for EHTH with tech to keep clients 5 or 6 years on a go forward basis. Commission rates up probably 10% next 3 years too. Will flip to highly profitable. Have to figure 5x rev just fine...

[VortMax]

Further to my other comments, EHTH could merge with someone like GOCO to eliminate competition in the space and bring together the best of what they both do. EHTH back to $150 PPS en route

[VortMax]

EHTH is the big winner here for 2 reasons. The online unassisted enrollment, which others don't have the capability. And, like the better independent agents they keep their Medicare book essentially forever, which is about 12 years based on 78 years life expectancy and average start on Medicare of 66. Right now EHTH is reporting 606 of just 3 years. It's certain to double quickly as the newer cohorts are used to technology and like enrolling online and saving their information in the EHTH portal to review plans each year. I project at least 25% gross margins on 1b revenue within 5 years. Not sure where to find online unassisted numbers but some of that data has been in past quarterly reports.

[VortexSage25]

Can someone tell me where I can find the increase in the online unassisted members? I share two analysis of this stock that I really like they are worth the read:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/brad-banks-2017792_e-broker-industry-poised-for-gains-in-months-activity-7131006454810988544-f07j/
https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/EHEALTH_INC/8244860069

[VortMax]

Well 500m rev and 50m EBITDA and 1b commissions receivable. Market cap 200m. Should be at 750m rev 150m EBITDA and 1.5b receivable in 3 years. Here comes $100 pps. Driven by online unassisted...and retention of existing...

[VortMax]

They could close up shop today and pay out a 15 per share dividend after expenses based on receivables....it's only going to get much higher

[QaB2i]

MAPD is a lousy insurance product ‘to sell’ as a business. The expense of compliance with nonsensical CMS burdensome rules almost ‘ensures’ self enrollment is the only future path. In a decade, MAPD will be a fabulous earner.

[VortMax]

Wow interested in why. The pay rates keep going up. The model is about a 3 year lifetime value nothing wrong with that. More will enroll themselves unassisted each year. Market is massive. 70m on medicare so around 2b per month or 24b per year commission up for grabs. This company is worth 150m today.

[QaB2i]

$1. I’ll take the under.

[VortMax]

Back to 100 per share here


https://ritterim.com/blog/2025-maximum-broker-commissions-for-medicare-advantage-and-medicare-part-d/

[VortMax]

This company can cease operations and pay all debt and shareholders are left with 30.00 per share off of just Medicare Advantage booked commissions. Closer to 40.00 per share if you add in all other lines. No more cash burn. MED ADV commission rates will be out next week likely up 3 to 5 % and even more for 2025 due to hard cap on out of pocket for drugs. Going to see much less churn due to better drug coverage. Back to 100 here.

[harry crumb]

Just popped

[VortMax]

Lol https://www.ritterim.com/blog/2023-maximum-broker-commissions-for-medicare-advantage-medicare-part-d/

[QaB2i]

It’s insignificant what the CMS commission-pay rise is. eHealth has totally missed the market. The first thing eHealth needs to do is close its Indian and Pakistani call centers that continue to cold call Medicare beneficiaries against CMS rules.

[VortMax]

The 2023 medicare advantage comission rates are about to release from cms.....let's see the jump in pay

[VortMax]

It'll be 20% of their enrollments just this year. Up from near 0. Commissions also set to rise 25% next few years. Very highly profitable. Let's see how they trim costs...

[QaB2i]

I’m glad you disagree. Based on that self service Medicare proposal I should short more Ehealth. Anyone that’s worked in Medicare knows that beneficiaries are not adroit with computers/smart phones / technology generally. Self service Medicare is likely in maybe 10 years time.

[VortMax]

I disagree. A shift to online fully unassisted is occuring. Past bad business model, forward is the correct. People enroll online and then refer their family or friends to do the same. Extremely profitable, they will do 75K fully online this year up from nearly 0 a few years ago. That'll bring $75M in nearly pure profit this year. They will get to 200k fully online soon.

Even bigger are the commission increase, for 2023 will be around 8%. You are going to see lifetime values of 1100 or 1200 into 2023. Ehealth will easily be doing a net profit of 100M in 2024. They can merge with GOCO too. I see the stock at 100 again within 2 years.

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/cms-finalizes-85-rate-hike-medicare-advantage-part-d-plans-2023

[QaB2i]

I expect a serious second shoe to drop on all these public health insurance brokers who’ve missed the market and the plot entirely.

SelectQ Ehealth Gohealth - bad business models

[budgetthis]

E-Health needs CPR…….lol.

[VortMax]

Guess not good calls

[VortMax]

Ya think they will announce push into online enrollments which are much more profitable than agent assisted enrollments.

[budgetthis]

Rock on, EHTH !

[budgetthis]

I agree, VortMax…….. I have been accumulation options that say you’re correct.

Go eHealth !

$$ EHTH $$

[VortMax]

Time for 30s here after earnings next week way too beaten down

[VortMax]

The majors now pay current renewal rates for past sales! Supercharges lifetime value

https://www.nandfinc.com/unitedhealthcare-your-guide-to-ma-commission-payments-for-2021/

[VortMax]

Commission rates up 16% since 2020!

Up 6% 2021 vs 2020 and now 7% for 2022 announced.

They have not disclosed yet! Huuuge trump falcon hits coming....will blow earnings out of the water....q1 2021 will impress and show....

https://medicaresupp.org/medicare-advantage-commissions-2022/

[Taurus69]

$ehth $62.64 ^ 1.75 (2.87%)
Volume: 1,255,420 @03/12/21 5:56:27 PM EST

[Dubster watching]

Easy $$

[Taurus69]

$ehth $51.05 v -3.42 (-6.28%)
Volume: 2,274,552 @02/18/21 7:54:17 PM EST

[Dubster watching]

Nice run back up underway.

[Dubster watching]

Wow, jumping back in!

[Taurus69]

$ehth $84.63 v -0.46 (-0.54%)
Volume: 1,493,413 @01/27/21 6:37:29 PM EST

[budgetthis]

Great DD, VortMax.....

This is a great stock to own right now, and for months to come, imho.

$$ EHTH $$

[VortMax]

medicare down to 60 years old makes EHTH worth 300+ btw a healthier stable population who stays with their plans for a long long time...

[VortMax]

can someone who uses reddit get EHTH on their forum. baseless short for an organization with complex accounting serving SENIORS...hugely profitable company. EHTH optimizes seniors every day into plans to save them thousands annually.

https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/ehth/mw-is-short-ehealth/

[VortMax]

Reddit to ehth coming