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Agree that this theory is unlikely. Cryoport has alluded to a strategic acquisition a couple of times now, including this financing news PR:
“This financing provides capital to further expand the breadth and depth of our solutions offerings in the rapidly developing cell therapy markets and life sciences industry at large, including the pursuit of targeted, strategic acquisitions.”
If Cryoport is making preparations to support Northwest Bio’s commercial launch, they would not make this information public until Northwest Bio makes it known first, but they would likely need to raise some capital.
And yes, I have read SOS, and think Michael Lewis could write an amazing book about the Northwest Bio story.
Just throwing it out there. It certainly could be separate, coincidental events. The timing is interesting and Petrichor seems an odd choice and not the typical investment bank that Cryoport has used in the past, so perhaps they were another party’s choice.
The sale of the property in the UK by Northwest Bio ensures they will have the necessary funds to finish the trial and complete the next steps to file BLA’s. I think Northwest Bio will finally release the long awaited topline data in the next six months (possibly in a few months), and they would like to make the big unveil on the grand stage at ASCO. I think they waited this long until the data matured to increase the likelihood of success. And yes, there are issues with the trial, but I think they will reveal unprecedented survival data in this landmark glioblastoma trial that will be irrefutable. It will take several months to analyze the data and prepare BLA’s, so it may be early 2020 for the regulatory authorities to approve it.
Cryoport has a logistics center near each commercial customer’s manufacturing facility, so I would think Northwest Bio would be the same. The UK may be the first filing. Since Cryoport was used in the clinical trial, and the cryologistics are a part of the CMC section of the BLA, Cryoport would have to ensure that they could handle commercial volumes by the BLA filing. It may take Cryoport at least six months to scale up, so they would have to make a move soon.
One simple way this could fit is if Petrichor (or another entity) bought the property from Northwest Bio, and then sold a portion to Cryoport and plans to further develop the rest of the property or sell it.
Cryoport may be behind the UK Property Transaction. Today they announced a significant financing from Petrichor Healthcare Capital Management.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cryoport-announces-25-million-investment-from-petrichor-healthcare-capital-management-300767257.html
Cryoport provides cryogenic logistic services for Novartis and Gilead for their CAR-T therapies, and has logistics depots next to both of their manufacturing facilities. Cryoport provided logistics services for Northwest Biotherapeutics during their trial and would require a significant amount of warehouse space for commercial production, and would begin preparations well in advance. As I noted on a post on the CYRX board, “Sir Bruce Keogh, is a member of Petrichor's Advisory Board and recent appointee to the Board of Directors of UK-based non-profit Cell and Gene Therapy (CGT) Catapult.”
https://petrichorcap.com
What We Do
Petrichor makes structured equity and credit investments across the global healthcare sector, with a focus on Biopharmaceuticals, Medical Technology, and Diagnostics. We provide flexible and tailored investment solutions for late and commercial stage companies. We work with both public and private companies to support their long-term growth efforts and have experience underwriting product acquisitions, product development activities, and commercial launches or expansions, among other types of situations. Our investment structures are designed to provide capital solutions that enable leading healthcare innovators to reach the next stage of their evolution. Petrichor acts as a strategic advisor, partnering with management, Boards of Directors, and other investors to help ensure the success of our companies.
Very interesting . . .Sir Bruce Keogh, is another member of Petrichor's Advisory Board and recent appointee to the Board of Directors of UK-based non-profit Cell and Gene Therapy (CGT) Catapult. Anyone else think this financing may be related to the recent purchase of Northwest Bio’s UK Property Transaction?
Decent terms. Wonder who Cryoport is buying?
“This financing provides capital to further expand the breadth and depth of our solutions offerings in the rapidly developing cell therapy markets and life sciences industry at large, including the pursuit of targeted, strategic acquisitions.”
And small world . . . the new Board of Director for Antares Pharma, Peter Greenleaf, is on the Petrichor Advisory Board.
https://petrichorcap.com
I think this was an initial grant of options (20 thousand at Thursday’s closing price of $3.11) to the newly appointed Director, Peter Greenleaf, under management’s Equity Compensation Plan. They vest over 12 quarters so he can’t exercise them yet.
H2R, I think you misunderstood. I meant Teva/Antares has more competition. I posted those articles to give background about the epinephrine competition and to point out (for those that might not know) that Teva/Antares are producing the only AB rated generic (the only easily substituted EpiPen) which is not just another generic epinephrine product like Amneal’s Adrenaclick, Kale’s Auvi-Q and Adamis’ Symjepi syringe. In theory this rating should help Teva/Antares gain a greater market share from Mylan. I think ADMP’s Symjepi will take a very small market share.
Why, after years of waiting and a year of EpiPen shortages, (now that Teva/Antares finally got approved) suddenly there’s even more competition?
The competition in this space is heating up. More background here:
https://www.pharmacytimes.com/contributor/andrew-abe-pharmd/2018/10/path-to-approval-first-truly-generic-epipen
Path to Approval First Truly Generic EpiPen
OCTOBER 08, 2018
The very first EpiPen (epinephrine) generic was approved by the FDA in August, and will hopefully be available to pharmacies in the coming months. But what is the true impact of this approval? And wasn’t there already a generic EpiPen on the market? That is half correct.
Previously, EpiPen was rated in the orange book as BX, which meant there was insufficient data to determine therapeutic equivalence to another product. Yet, we saw a 'generic' EpiPen being advertised. What happened was that another company, which owned an epinephrine product (Adrenaclick), also made an authorized generic.
An authorized generic is different from a true generic in that it is esentially the same as the brand name product, just marketed as a generic product. This authorized generic was marketed as a 'generic' epinephrine pen with the same active ingredient as EpiPen. But because EpiPen and the authorized generic for Adrenaclick were not truly generic, these products were not interchangable, and pharmacies would have to call a provider’s office to switch to the authorized generic.
Highlights for pharmacists:
If you receive a prescription for EpiPen, you can switch to the AB rated generic epinephrine by Teva. You would not need to call provider for permission to make switch.
If you receive a prescription for epinephrine pen, you can fill for what you have in stock and what is covered by insurance.
If you receive a prescription for any other any other brand epinephrine, it would not be interchangable to any other brand epinephrine.
The approval of a drug and device combination is exceptionally tricky as patents protect both the drug and the device separately. The high cost of brand name drug device combinations has lead the FDA to announce their Drug Competition Action Plan in 2017 which seeks to improve the generic drug approval process.
While the generic EpiPen might be the first generic drug device combination approved, it will definitely not be the last. Hopefully, this approval will lead the way for more approvals of generic drug device combinations.
Also:
With EpiPen competitors bearing down, can Mylan maintain its lead?
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/opportunity-at-cafeteria-door-emergency-epinephrine-solutions-challenge-market-leader-mylan
Antares: Multiple New Product Launches Make for Extreme Complexity in Earnings Forecasts for 2019 to 2021 (ATRS, Buy, $3.59)
https://smithonstocks.com/antares-multiple-new-product-launches-make-for-extreme-complexity-in-earnings-forecasts-for-2019-to-2021-atrs-buy-3-59/
The good news keeps flowing. No wonder it's down today!
Yes H2R, patience is necessary, but often rewarded. I think 2019 will be a very good year for us in more ways than one! Best wishes
Finally . . Teva prices EpiPen generic at $300, same price as Mylan generic
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-teva-pharm-ind-epipen/teva-prices-epipen-generic-at-300-same-price-as-mylan-generic-idUSKCN1NW1Q5
(Reuters) - Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd said on Tuesday it launched its generic version of Mylan NV’s EpiPen at the wholesale price of $300 - the same price as Mylan’s generic version of the emergency allergy shot.
The Israeli drugmaker said its generic EpiPen is now available in limited supply in the United States. It said that additional supply, as well as a generic version of the lower-dose EpiPen Jr., will be available next year.
There has been a shortage of Mylan’s EpiPens, which dominate the allergy market, since at least May. The company has blamed manufacturing issues at a Pfizer plant, which supplies the EpiPens, for the shortage.
The FDA approved Teva’s version of EpiPen in August.
EpiPen autoinjectors deliver a dose of epinephrine in the event of severe allergic reaction, such as to bee stings or exposure to peanuts.
Agree BSB . . . If it’s actually Big Pharma partnership(s).
This is a good recent example of how it would be structured; significant upfront payment, initial small equity stake at a premium (preferred shares?), sales and regulatory milestone payments, and eventual revenue sharing. A partnership would not only give much needed financial support (allowing further pipeline development), but it would immediately give credibility to Northwest Bio’s platform. Northwest Bio would also gain much needed experience and guidance through the approval process at a critical time. And further, it would deal a deathblow to anyone shorting NWBO.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bristol-myers-nektar/bristol-myers-to-pay-1-85-billion-in-cancer-deal-with-nektar-idUSKCN1FY1M9
Bristol-Myers to pay $1.85 billion in cancer deal with Nektar
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co will pay Nektar Therapeutics $1.85 billion for a global development and profit-sharing deal on a promising Nektar cancer drug, the companies announced on Wednesday.
In one of the largest single-drug collaboration deals ever, Nektar will receive $1 billion in cash upfront and Bristol-Myers will purchase about 8.28 million Nektar shares at $102.60 per share, or an equity stake of just under 5 percent of the company. Nektar shares closed at $75.66 on Tuesday. If all potential development, regulatory and sales milestones in the deal are met, it could be worth more than $3.6 billion to Nektar, while giving Bristol-Myers a new immunotherapy platform.
Nektar shares were up 8 percent at $81.74, while Bristol-Myers shares rose 0.7 percent to $64.32. “We believe the deal economics are favorable to both parties,” Cowen analyst Chris Shibutani said in a research note. The partnership is built around the Nektar drug, NKTR-214, which will be tested with Bristol’s immuno-oncology (IO) drugs Opdivo and Opdivo and Yervoy in 20 cancer indications across nine different tumor types, including melanoma, kidney and lung cancers, following “very encouraging” early data from clinical trials.
“We’ve been in a clinical collaboration with Nektar since 2016. This partnership was a natural next step,” Paul Biondi, head of business development for Bristol-Myers, said in a telephone interview. The combination therapies could become “potentially a new backbone in the IO space,” he added. The announcement comes as early immunotherapy leader Bristol-Myers has been viewed by investors as having fallen behind Merck & Co in the burgeoning field, especially in the most lucrative lung cancer space. NKTR-214, a CD122 agonist that utilizes the interleukin-2 (IL-2) pathway, is designed to increase the number and activation state of cancer-fighting T cells in the tumor microenvironment, while limiting IL-2 toxicity, with the hope of improving and lengthening patient responses.
Nektar is also eligible to receive an additional $1.78 billion in milestone payments, of which $1.43 billion are development and regulatory milestones and the remainder are sales milestones. Following approvals, Nektar will book revenue for worldwide NKTR-214 sales and the companies will split global profits, with Nektar receiving 65 percent and Bristol-Myers 35 percent, they said. Bristol-Myers will retain 100 percent of revenues for its own medicines. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2018, the companies said. Both companies would be free to develop NKTR-214 with other drugs for uses not laid out in the deal.
And yet, Bristol Myers may still be looking for a new immunotherapy platform:
Do Nektar’s disappointing clinical trial results invalidate $2 billion Bristol-Myers deal?
Published: June 5, 2018 8:13 a.m. ET
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-nektars-disappointing-clinical-trial-results-invalidate-2-billion-bristol-myers-deal-2018-06-04
ae kusterer - “The exercise price of the options will be $0.25, in accordance with the prior trading day’s closing price . . .”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420418061318/tv507805_8-k.htm
SNO Highlights - Al Musella's Comments:
SNO is an amazing meeting. Aside from all of the presentations, I got to meet and talk with many brain tumor researchers and physicians and discuss what they think are the best treatments, what is needed to advance the field, what is slowing down progress and much more.
We also were able to interact with many other brain tumor nonprofits. There was some resistance in the past to working together but I think the last barriers were recently removed and you are going to see a lot more collaboration now. We are all about collaboration. Working together we will be able to accomplish much more than any of us could individually.
The Society for Neuro-Oncology held their annual meeting last week in New Orleans. This was completely overwhelming. There were 100s of sessions and over 900 posters. Everyone I talked to had different favorites but these are the topics that stood out to me:
• Onc-201 for H3 K27M gliomas (which includes brainstem gliomas, DIPG, Midline GBMs, Spinal GBMS, Thalmic Tumors, usually on younger people). Early data in small group of patients at least doubled expected survival time with many patients still alive. This is a simple oral drug with minimal side effects.
*
* PVS-RIPO (Polio Virus Vaccine) – many presentations showing promise. One pre-clinical poster in particular showed that the target of the Vaccine is over expressed in most Medulloblastoma and ATRT tumors – which supports their new clinical trial using it on these tumor types in addition to the GBMs.
*
* DC-Vax-L: They still did not unblind the data from their phase 3 trial which ended 3 years ago, but presented more follow-up on the unblended data they reported on 6 months ago. Looks interesting but we can’t tell until they present the unblended data. They did say they will unblind the data soon.
*
* ABT-414: This is for recurrent GBM that overexpress EGFR. They showed some promising data – ABT-414 plus Temozolomide compared to Temozolomide and CCNU increased the overall survival at 2 years from 5.2% to 19.8%.
*
* SRS (Stereotactic radiosurgery) + Avastin for recurrent GBM did better than chemo plus Avastin, progression free survival of 5.3 months vs. 1.3 months. SRS is a form of radiation, and adding it at the time of recurrence is relative easy and adds a big benefit. It can be done after the “maximum lifetime“ dose of radiation. It is worth considering.
*
* SurVaxM (Survivin Vaccine). Survivin is a protein that is overexpressed on almost all GBMs. Early results look promising: Minimal side effects and for newly diagnosed GBM, survival at 1 year of over 94%.
*
There were 2 negative trials that were unexpected:
* VB-111 + Avastin for recurrent GBM did not do any better than Avastin alone.
*
* Ribociclib for recurrent GBM did not improve progression free survival and was found to not cross the blood brain barrier.
Disclosure: The Musella Foundation has funded some of the development of Onc-201, DC-Vax and PVS-RIPO.
https://virtualtrials.com/news3.cfm?item=6575
They released their Q3 10-Q yesterday without announcement. You still think there will be a conference call?
Haha. It kinda sounded like he was in the bathroom. I just caught the end of the call at the Q & A. What is with these analysts? They don’t even know the basic revenue estimates for the clinical trials and can’t read the earnings release which stated the commercial revenue? And they still keep asking about the commercial ramp which everyone else seems to understand management won’t answer.
Anyway it was a pretty solid quarter with an amazing 37 (or 38 as Shelton said) new clinical trials added. CB you were worried about sideways movement, but I was worried about downward movement.
Yes, hockey stick is forming. I believe it’s in the sweet spot of the blade and moving toward the heal. I’m on record already. (5.1) What’s your take?
Novartis reported $20M in sales of Kymriah for Q3, and were rather non-committal on the sales ramp, but still believe that Kymriah will scale into a very significant treatment. (reminder Q1 was 12M and Q2 was 16M)
I think Gilead reports in a day or 2.
It’s true. Piper Jaffray initiated coverage and put out a research note on Monday. (price was ~$8.50 at the time)
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2807625&headline=MRKR-Marker-Therapeutics-initiated-
Marker Therapeutics initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Edward Tenthoff started Marker Therapeutics with a Neutral rating and $10 price target. The analyst believes the company's Multi Tumor-Associated Antigen Cell Therapy platform "offers several key advantages over current autologous CAR-T including improved manufacturing time and expense, and potentially safer, more durable response."
I actually think if Marker had gone the IPO route, they probably would have been valued at least double that, but this seems reasonable to me and is close to the comparative valuation that Nomura provided in the merger agreement (fully diluted). And actually, if you watched the merger presentation with Peter, he provides the same valuation and says: “If someone offers you half of their 600 or 800 million dollars in return for half of your 30 or 40 million, that is a transaction that is going to yield a tremendous amount of value for you.” This was exactly my thinking as well, and I believe (especially at today’s price) there is still value here. I put my other leg in and bought more this morning.
We can now customize cancer treatments, tumor by tumor But can any company afford to manufacture one-off medical care?
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612268/we-can-now-customize-cancer-cures-tumor-by-tumor/
“Over my dead body. A vaccine will never work.” “but a cancer vaccine is unknown territory”
Although this article has numerous quotes like this, maybe some outside of the scientific community are finally waking up to the idea? . . . unfortunately no mention of Northwest Bio : (
And that is the downside of being included in the indexes. It throws the baby out with the bath water.
FYI - the Russell 3000 is down ~25% the past 5 days.
While I agree with the part about algorithms tracking posts and media activity, I don’t think spamming other boards will increase the price. I believe institutional investors will move the price in due course, but it may take some patience.
I haven't updated my model after the Q2 numbers, so it still shows 5.1M. I'm doing more work on other companies now. I keep an eye on CYRX, but it's lower on my priority list. Especially now that football season is here.
Has anyone seen today’s presentation at the Sachs Associates 18th Annual Biotech in Europe Forum?
The video doesn’t seem to work for me, but I’m guessing there isn’t going to be any new info anyway.
There are a couple of good articles out today . .
Why Antares Pharma Stock Dropped And What Is The Likely Outcome
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209561-antares-pharma-stock-dropped-likely-outcome
Antares: Xyosted is Approved; Let the Good Times Roll (ATRS, Buy, $3.77)
https://smithonstocks.com/antares-xyosted-is-approved-let-the-good-times-roll-atrs-buy-3-77/
Flying, the preclinical results were quite impressive, and I’m far from an expert, but I think the science is compelling. This approach is considered the “holy grail” in that the product is “off the shelf” so there’s no need to remove the patient’s own cells and genetically engineer them and infuse them back into the patient to attack the tumor, so the process is more simple, and theoretically could be even cheaper than Tapimmune’s “natural” T-cell approach, and certainly way less expensive than the 2 current commercial CAR-T treatments (Kymriah and Yescarta), that have a big head start.
But while this approach looks very promising, it’s at a very early stage. Animal models are limited in their ability to mimic the extremely complex process of human carcinogenesis, physiology and progression, and the average rate of successful translation from animal models to human clinical cancer trials is less than 8%. In addition, in the preclinical trials, both agents were injected directly into the tumor, but in the human trial, the anti-OX40 mAb will be given by IV, so this may not prove as effective. If the same results are replicated in humans, then it would be worth keeping an eye on.
Wow. Look at that pop. Up over 1%. Appears the market is a little concerned after the Otrexup experience. I think management has learned how to work with the PBM and payer system, and I expect Xyosted to do well. It may take some time, but I think 2019 will be a good year for ATRS. The new website looks pretty nice https://www.antarespharma.com
And thanks to CB and his lucky undies!
I haven’t seen a video but I think this is what you are referring to:
Cancer ‘vaccine’ eliminates tumors in mice
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2018/01/cancer-vaccine-eliminates-tumors-in-mice.html
This is the human trial: (Dynavax (DVAX) is supplying the TLR 9 agonist (SD-101) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) the anti-OX40 mAb)
TLR9 Agonist SD-101, Anti-OX40 Antibody BMS 986178, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Low-Grade B-Cell Non-Hodgkin Lymphomas
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03410901
More on OX40
OX40 Agonists: Boosting Cancer Immunotherapy
https://blog.crownbio.com/ox40-ox40l-immune-co-stimulators
These companies are all testing anti-OX40 mAbs: Astrazeneca (MEDI0562), Agenus (INCAGN1949), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS-986178), Genentech (MOXR0916), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK3174998), Pfizer (PF-04518600), and Roche (RG7888)
Sorry my post wasn’t very clear. Agreed, the extension doesn’t have anything to do with the up coming vote, and it was wisely provided for in the agreement. The merger was expected to be wrapped up by September 15th, and yet the deal’s still not done. I wasn’t implying that there is something wrong with Marker that caused the other deals to fall through, just that deals fall through all the time for many reasons, so this isn’t a sure thing either. I’m not as informed as you are, so I’m not as confident that the vote’s in the bag
I’m also not saying that I think it’s not running higher because the prior Marker deals fell through. We agree, it’s likely some deep pocketed investors are sitting it out until the merger is final. Some money is less risk tolerant and would rather pay, say $13 after the deal closes, then say, $9 before with even a small possibility of it falling back to $3 if "something catastrophic” happens.
Thanks for the interesting Battersea Biotech background. You’re really a wealth of information, and this board is fortunate you’re here.
Tic Toc. The countdown begins. I thought this would have run a little more towards $4 by now but it has been digesting the run from the mid 2-s and building a healthy base in the low 3’s. If you’ve ever listened to ClayTrader, (and I know you have) then you know it’s called stair stepping and it’s a good thing. Now the question is how high will this pop tomorrow?
CB you crack me up!
Shhhhhh. I think this is the quiet period. Cryoport has so little news to announce, they’ve resorted to reposting that 6-month old article from Wired on Twitter!
But maybe new partnerships are formed at the Meeting on the Mesa next week? Yep, still looking good for b/e next year. I think the only sizable client they have is Celgene/Bluebird Bio. They may file in the EU later this year, and in the U.S. early next year? Signing is just a matter of time. Rachel and Ross? Hmmmm. I don’t know, but just between us “Friends” I’ve been having this strange craving for french toast.
Most shareholders who don't vote will likely get a call asking them to vote. This is an extremely important vote and a quorum is needed.
Yes, that frivolous lawsuit (and potentially more) is exactly what I was referring to. This one may just be a small-time player looking to get paid or maybe they’re testing the waters to see the response. It’s an old trick right out of the playbook often used against tiny biotechs that possess potentially game-changing technology that threatens the preferred status quo of the powerful. This reincorporation move actually says a lot. BTW - We all know it’s bogus, and nothing will come of the lawsuit. There was no corporate misconduct or fraud, and no false or misleading statements were made.
Obviously, coming from Bellicum, Peter knows the Houston area and it makes a lot of sense that the new Marker Therapeutics should be headquartered there, not only for the partnership with BCM, but also to access the talented pool of workers that will be needed to grow the business. Everyone thinks of Kendall Square and the Bay Area as the hottest biotech areas of the country, but actually Houston is up and coming.
https://www.xconomy.com/texas/2018/04/24/with-tmc3-texas-leaders-aim-to-launch-houston-as-top-biotech-hub/
Hi all. Just wanted to congratulate all the long-time holders of TapImmune and thank the board (mostly Phantom Lord) for some good info. I’ve been researching the company since it popped on my radar in May, and I started a position when it dropped at the end of July. To be honest, I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for the CEO and the merger with Marker Therapeutics, and the all-star Scientific Advisory Board.
Also wanted to recognize the 1 year anniversary today of the hire of the CEO, Peter Hoang. I believe with his venture capital and investment banking background, and his knowledge of CAR-T and immunotherapy, he will (as we are seeing already) completely transform this company. He understands the technology and what needs to be done to bring it to market. Not sure if this was posted here but, he was offered the CEO position at ViraCyte by John Wilson (Marker CEO) last year, but instead took the job at TapImmune. I think when when he got a look at Marker’s platform last summer, he was very interested and found a way to bring them public, and TapImmune shareholders are the beneficiaries of this brilliant move. And BTW - I wouldn’t be at all surprised if ViraCyte is also brought into the fold at some point in the near future.
Moving the headquarters to the Biotech hub in Houston is a smart move as well as reincorporating in Delaware. There is a good reason most Fortune 500 companies are incorporated in Delaware. Their laws tends to protect the rights of boards of directors and shareholders, (vs. Nevada which protects management) and has an excellent body of corporate case law regarding such matters as management/shareholder issues and mergers & acquisitions. So by reincorporating in Delaware, it shows that Hoang is already looking to attract VC investors and planning to grow the company to become a Fortune 500 company.
I received my proxy materials in the mail today and voted HELL YES to all. (But to be honest - on PROP 8, I’m not sure about Marcum LLP )
You’re right. My first investment in CYRX was last June, and I really don’t know much about the history of Cryoport. I did basic DD to see if they owned property on a toxic waste site, and any pending litigation, and that sort of thing. I’m well aware that long-time investors have endured multiple reverse stock splits, (resulting in a very high cost basis) and a capital raise last April that nearly cut the shares in half. In the short time I’ve listened to the quarterly conference calls, I’ve become more aware of management’s over promising and under delivering, and do understand what you’re saying. I’ve even posted several times Shelton’s direct quotes regarding the signing of those 3 BP contracts for the outsourcing of cold-chain handling which are no longer even mentioned or asked about by the analysts. None of this BP outsourcing revenue that Shelton said would fully ramp by the end of this year has materialized.
This is why I’m second guessing my investment thesis. I thought I understood where Big Pharma was heading with the increasing complexity and difficulty in handling their cold-chain biologics and complying with the The Drug Supply Chain Security Act, and Cryoport was in a very favorable position to benefit. I’m not sure why they haven’t capitalized on the opportunity. I have to believe that if it was still in the works, this management team would certainly talk it up, right? Perhaps Cryoport is instead working the software angle and looking to integrate their software with World Courier and others, and leave the logistics handling to them?
The regenerative medicine/ gene therapy industry is still in its infancy and will be a huge driver of growth for Cryoport, but it’s like a huge pipeline that is still years away from meaningful revenues. I think the commercial ramp of Kymriah and Yescarta will provide that solid coq growth you are hoping for. Analysts, on average, estimate Yescarta sales will be $2.3 billion in 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/gilead-faces-doubts-on-wall-street-a-year-after-12-billion-deal
I think the fast, easy money has already been made this year in CYRX and BLFS, so I’ve mostly moved on, but still hold some free shares. I probably wouldn’t add again unless they fall back to the single digits or game-changing announcements are made.
Not sure that’s a problem, it’s what growing companies do to prepare for even more growth; they build/buy office space, manufacturing facilities, and raw materials, hire new staff, upgrade products and software, etc. And yes, sometimes there isn’t an immediate return on that capital investment, but some growing pains are to be expected. And yes, dilution also comes with the territory when investing in tiny, growing companies (and even larger companies for that matter) that aren’t yet profitable For all of the long-time investors here, perhaps the returns have been “crap” and this may taint your view. For new investors, (since last spring) the returns on CYRX have been spectacular. Like I said, expectations and perspective.
You could be right about those other issues that are concerning you as there are always competitive threats, but none of those you mentioned are even serious. There is not another company that is FDA approved, so the only reason Novartis would decide to use another company is if Cryoport screwed the pooch,(which is unlikely) and btw, Novartis had better decide at least a year before the contract is up because it will likely take a competitor quite some time for the bridging studies. And if allogenic takes off, (as it likely will) it will be quite positive for Cryoport since it supports several clients with allogenic stem-cell treatments. If you recall, on a conference call last year, it was mentioned that the revenue was multiple times higher than Yescarta and Kymriah due to the much greater patient populations.
“The Chain of compliance seems to be something of extreme importance.” Uh yeah, and you know it is only going to become even more critical in the very near future.
Okay, I guess I’m out on a limb here on my speculation but thanks for your response.