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UVE Fans- xcheck CNO at 2.5
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CNO
Loaded up on CNO at $2.60. Masive Insider buying above $4. In CC forecast $1.35 EPS next year. $18 Book value.
This company has ZERO exposure to exotic insurance st uff like AIG did. Only reason it went down was impairme nt of Lehman and WM investments.. thats in the past now .
Was over $12 in August
Stocks under cash: Take a look at MLNK, the former CMGI. $3.50 today, $3.5 / share cash and 46.5 working capital / share;
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=MLNK
They made 6.7 million t his quarter if you extract it from the loss on their in estments that have more than been factored in. People expected further write downs, etc.
The ceo said they are going to raise more capital, not because they need it, because they have huge demand for their new rural utility program as well as farm loans. they want to grow the business even more and demand is overwhelming.
This means they are going to new capital that will pay off the more expensive capital raise they just made of $65 million at 10% interest. It appears they will h ave a new captial raise quickly, that will get rid of t he new preferred debt and be at much lower interest rat .
They have no further write downs, business is growing .
Bought ALD today for 4.25, 30000 shares. A $.65 dividend dcoming in December, so a nice $20,000 cheque.
This market is nuts. ALD is the bluest of blue chips no subprime or liquidity issues.
AGM core earnings very strong. Looking for gap up tomorrow maybe run to $8. Have made a lot trading this puppy.
I like GFIG as 5-10 bagger from here. Is a brokerage dealer stock- demand for that in all markets. Just had insider buy. See Seeking Alpha article very bullish.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GFIG#chart1:symbol=gfig;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
I like GFIG as 5-10 bagger from here. Is a brokerage dealer stock- demand for that in all markets. Just had insider buy. See Seeking Alpha article very bullish.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GFIG#chart1:symbol=gfig;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
SUTR strong on China stimulus package. Steel companies will benefit from build out. still incredibly cheap 2 PE.
I like CNB for Bank Rebound. Massive insider buys since summer more on Friday. They have till Friday whether they apply for TARP or not, but I think they will announce they don't need it. Either way should be boost for stock:
OVERVIEW FIG Partners, LLC 1175 Peachtree St., 100 Colony Square, Suite 2250, Atlanta, GA 30361 866-344-2657 Fax: 404-591-6004
Investors continue to ignore CNB shares as the stock slipped another 11% on Thursday 11-6. There appears to be overriding belief
that without approval of capital issuance from the U.S Treasury’s TARP program, CNB becomes slotted as a “have not” and
automatically is subject to a merger by another regional bank. The stock seems to carry no support until the TARP uncertainty has
passed.
We think CNB has superb loss capacity despite a heavy degree of nonperforming assets (NPAs) which are over 6% of loans plus
nearly another 5% of loans in past dues 30-89 days and “potential problem loans” which could be future NPAs. The fact is that
CNB has nearly $1.1 Billion in loss capacity when excess total risk-based capital, excess loan loss reserves, and pre-tax, preprovision
earnings are factored for the next year. This equates to a 66.5% loss rate on all problem loans (including classifieds).
CNB shares trade at 41% of tangible book at 9-30-08, and 45% of estimated tangible book of $6.00 by year-end 2009. While
investors are confused about the importance of TARP, we continue to feel that CNB does not need the extra capital from the U.S.
Treasury. Certainly the TARP funds would provide an added cusMake no mistake, we understand that CNB should apply for $550 million in preferred capital issuance via the U.S. Treasury’s TARP
program. And, we feel the company has a high chance of being granted this capital due to the fact that the company has taken steps
to reduce leverage, has already made healthy write-downs on existing NPAs (such as 28% on Construction NPAs or 23% when all
past dues are included), has ample liquidity and limited short-term debt due in 2009, and continues to have strong core deposits.
Investors perceive that CNB has no interest in making new loans while other regional banks are willing to lend, which leads
to the conclusion that the company is disqualified for TARP capital. We disagree with this sentiment and argue that ultimately
CNB has the same capacity to make new loans as other banks who have already been granted Treasury capital.
However, in the event that TARP is not granted to CNB, we feel the company is far from worthless for these reasons:
The company has $1.3 Billion in cash per its new 10-Q filing, which is 2.5x its market capitalization. This cash is equal to
$6.56 per share. Debt renewals are minimum at the corporate level, and FHLB borrowing capacity remains intact. We see no
reason CNB cannot rollover any debt exposures.
CNB holds $12.8 Billion of core deposits - we feel these should carry a minimum premium of at least 2%. Bank failures
across the country have limited the current value of deposits, which is why we place such a low price on CNB’s deposits. Over
time, if the company remains independent, this premium should improve to mid-single digits and later higher in our opinion.
Tangible book should fall in the next year as losses are recognized and our estimate is $6.00 per share by year-end 2009.
But, if losses become as high as 66.5% of total problem loans, this would mean that residual losses after-taxes are $500 million
or $2.50 per share (i.e., $1.1 billion less $220 million of pre-tax earnings power and $95 million in excess loan loss reserves—
see analysis below). If tangible book falls to all the way to $4.00, the stock would still be at a healthy discount of 32% of
adjusted tangible book under a heavy loss scenario on ALL problem loans and classified loans too. MORE INFO COMING
I like CNB for Bank Rebound. Massive insider buys since summer more on Friday. They have till Friday whether they apply for TARP or not, but I think they will announce they don't need it. Either way should be boost for stock:
OVERVIEW FIG Partners, LLC 1175 Peachtree St., 100 Colony Square, Suite 2250, Atlanta, GA 30361 866-344-2657 Fax: 404-591-6004
Investors continue to ignore CNB shares as the stock slipped another 11% on Thursday 11-6. There appears to be overriding belief
that without approval of capital issuance from the U.S Treasury’s TARP program, CNB becomes slotted as a “have not” and
automatically is subject to a merger by another regional bank. The stock seems to carry no support until the TARP uncertainty has
passed.
We think CNB has superb loss capacity despite a heavy degree of nonperforming assets (NPAs) which are over 6% of loans plus
nearly another 5% of loans in past dues 30-89 days and “potential problem loans” which could be future NPAs. The fact is that
CNB has nearly $1.1 Billion in loss capacity when excess total risk-based capital, excess loan loss reserves, and pre-tax, preprovision
earnings are factored for the next year. This equates to a 66.5% loss rate on all problem loans (including classifieds).
CNB shares trade at 41% of tangible book at 9-30-08, and 45% of estimated tangible book of $6.00 by year-end 2009. While
investors are confused about the importance of TARP, we continue to feel that CNB does not need the extra capital from the U.S.
Treasury. Certainly the TARP funds would provide an added cusMake no mistake, we understand that CNB should apply for $550 million in preferred capital issuance via the U.S. Treasury’s TARP
program. And, we feel the company has a high chance of being granted this capital due to the fact that the company has taken steps
to reduce leverage, has already made healthy write-downs on existing NPAs (such as 28% on Construction NPAs or 23% when all
past dues are included), has ample liquidity and limited short-term debt due in 2009, and continues to have strong core deposits.
Investors perceive that CNB has no interest in making new loans while other regional banks are willing to lend, which leads
to the conclusion that the company is disqualified for TARP capital. We disagree with this sentiment and argue that ultimately
CNB has the same capacity to make new loans as other banks who have already been granted Treasury capital.
However, in the event that TARP is not granted to CNB, we feel the company is far from worthless for these reasons:
The company has $1.3 Billion in cash per its new 10-Q filing, which is 2.5x its market capitalization. This cash is equal to
$6.56 per share. Debt renewals are minimum at the corporate level, and FHLB borrowing capacity remains intact. We see no
reason CNB cannot rollover any debt exposures.
CNB holds $12.8 Billion of core deposits - we feel these should carry a minimum premium of at least 2%. Bank failures
across the country have limited the current value of deposits, which is why we place such a low price on CNB’s deposits. Over
time, if the company remains independent, this premium should improve to mid-single digits and later higher in our opinion.
Tangible book should fall in the next year as losses are recognized and our estimate is $6.00 per share by year-end 2009.
But, if losses become as high as 66.5% of total problem loans, this would mean that residual losses after-taxes are $500 million
or $2.50 per share (i.e., $1.1 billion less $220 million of pre-tax earnings power and $95 million in excess loan loss reserves—
see analysis below). If tangible book falls to all the way to $4.00, the stock would still be at a healthy discount of 32% of
adjusted tangible book under a heavy loss scenario on ALL problem loans and classified loans too. MORE INFO COMING
In IIJI today. Telecom best place to be for recession, was $9 in August.
AGM Farmer Mac +20% 1.5 PE ratio
AGM was over $30 in August.
Only 10 MM float.
NO Sub prime OR Alt A exposure.
1.0 PE Ratio. $30 MM Market cap for $3 annual EPS.
This is an incredible buy.. unlike residential housing farm sector is BOOMING.
The ONLY reason AGM went down was a minor short term issue that was SOLVED:
A group of farm lenders rescued Farmer Mac from a glut of souring investments by injecting $65 million of fresh capital into the smaller cousin of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
As part of the move Wednesday, Farmer Mac, which is chartered by Congress to operate a secondary market for farm loans, replaced Henry D. Edelman as its chief executive, a position he had held since its creation in 1989.
Mr. Edelman, 59 years old, was succeeded by Michael A. Gerber, the 49-year-old chief executive of Farm Credit of Western New York. Mr. Gerber will hold the position until a permanent CEO is found for Farmer Mac, which is formally known as Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp.
In 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading Wednesday, Farmer Mac's heavily traded nonvoting Class C shares jumped 66%, or $2.69, to $6.79 a share. The stock traded at about $29 a share a month ago, before a mid-September tailspin.
Farmer Mac's stumble comes as farm banks are riding high. While bad debts are battering the home-mortgage industry, rural lenders are benefiting from a two-year boom in grain prices, which is lifting farmland prices to record levels. Because land is the biggest source of collateral for farmers, the farm-debt picture is its brightest in decades: The delinquency rate on the $9.5 billion in farm and rural loans under Farmer Mac's umbrella is the lowest in its history.
What got Farmer Mac in trouble were losses in its investment portfolio, which included one million preferred shares of Fannie Mae. The value of the shares evaporated when the federal government took Fannie Mae into conservatorship Sept. 7, and Farmer Mac faced a $44 million write-down. A week later, Farmer Mac took another hit when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy code, casting a cloud over its holdings of $60 million in Lehman debt securities.
The losses threatened to drain Farmer Mac's capital below the minimum level required by regulators. Farmer Mac's move to sell $65 million of preferred stock to some of its biggest banking customers brought its capital level up to $210 million, above the minimum statutory requirement of $181 million.
Most of the new capital came from the five banks in the Farm Credit System, a network of lenders created by Congress in 1916 to lend to farmers. An additional $5 million of preferred stock was purchased by Zions Bancorp of Salt Lake City, which has owned about a fifth of Farmer Mac's voting shares.
As part of the rescue plan, the preferred stock bought by the Farm Credit System banks will pay an initial annual dividend of 10%. The Farm Credit System banks also get the right to nominate three observers to the Farmer Mac board.
I gave you AGM. CVGI next? Supplier to global commercial and agricultural vehicle market. was $10 a few weeks ago now $1.35, Insider just bought 100,000 shares.
Commercial Vehicle Group is a leading supplier of fully integrated system solutions for the global commercial vehicle market, including the heavy-duty truck market, the construction and agriculture market and the specialty and military transportation markets
Sold my AGM today for nice double. Going higher but tons of other bargains trading at fractions of highs. Bought FCSX at 3.50 $3.95 ah.
GFIG: No Brainer. $3 per share net liquid assets trading at $3.27 was $27 a year ago. EPS run rate of $.55 - $.60. Will start to roar in ANTICIPATION of 2009 market recovery fuelled by record low interest rates and liquidity.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103506-gfi-group-loss-reported-in-murphys-law-quarter?source=yahoo
GFIG: No Brainer. $3 per share net liquid assets trading at $3.27 was $27 a year ago. EPS run rate of $.55 - $.60. Will start to roar in ANTICIPATION of 2009 market recovery fuelled by record low interest rates and liquidity.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103506-gfi-group-loss-reported-in-murphys-law-quarter?source=yahoo
GFIG: No Brainer. $3 per share net liquid assets trading at $3.27 was $27 a year ago. EPS run rate of $.55 - $.60. Will start to roar in ANTICIPATION of 2009 market recovery fuelled by record low interest rates and liquidity.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/103506-gfi-group-loss-reported-in-murphys-law-quarter?source=yahoo
Good, but so many big board bargains out there that will move up faster.
Anyone buy AGM? Heading back to $15 soon IMO. Biggest no brainer out there.
Anyone buy AGM? Heading back to $15 soon IMO. Biggest no brainer out there.
HUGE: GKK:NYSE $1.60 + $.80 reported $.60 cash flow per share in ONE QUARTER. This headed to $4 in a few days IMO was double digits in summer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081030/20081030005378.html
HUGE: GKK:NYSE $1.60 + $.80 reported $.60 cash flow per share in ONE QUARTER. This headed to $4 in a few days IMO was double digits in summer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081030/20081030005378.html
HUGE: GKK:NYSE $1.60 + $.80 reported $.60 cash flow per share in ONE QUARTER. This headed to $4 in a few days IMO was double digits in summer.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081030/20081030005378.html
AGM Movin..
AGM was over $30 a few weeks ago.
Only 10 MM float.
NO Sub prime OR Alt A exposure.
$30 MM Market cap for $3 annual EPS.
FARMER MAC 1.0 PE Ratio $3.1 $30 in August
Freddie is good but Farmer Mac (AFM) is BEYOND BELIEF.
AGM was over $30 a few weeks ago.
Only 10 MM float.
NO Sub prime OR Alt A exposure.
$30 MM Market cap for $3 annual EPS.
Now that AGM solved the financial short term issue, this is an incredible buy.. unlike residential housing farm sector is BOOMING.
A group of farm lenders rescued Farmer Mac from a glut of souring investments by injecting $65 million of fresh capital into the smaller cousin of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
As part of the move Wednesday, Farmer Mac, which is chartered by Congress to operate a secondary market for farm loans, replaced Henry D. Edelman as its chief executive, a position he had held since its creation in 1989.
Mr. Edelman, 59 years old, was succeeded by Michael A. Gerber, the 49-year-old chief executive of Farm Credit of Western New York. Mr. Gerber will hold the position until a permanent CEO is found for Farmer Mac, which is formally known as Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp.
In 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading Wednesday, Farmer Mac's heavily traded nonvoting Class C shares jumped 66%, or $2.69, to $6.79 a share. The stock traded at about $29 a share a month ago, before a mid-September tailspin.
Farmer Mac's stumble comes as farm banks are riding high. While bad debts are battering the home-mortgage industry, rural lenders are benefiting from a two-year boom in grain prices, which is lifting farmland prices to record levels. Because land is the biggest source of collateral for farmers, the farm-debt picture is its brightest in decades: The delinquency rate on the $9.5 billion in farm and rural loans under Farmer Mac's umbrella is the lowest in its history.
What got Farmer Mac in trouble were losses in its investment portfolio, which included one million preferred shares of Fannie Mae. The value of the shares evaporated when the federal government took Fannie Mae into conservatorship Sept. 7, and Farmer Mac faced a $44 million write-down. A week later, Farmer Mac took another hit when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy code, casting a cloud over its holdings of $60 million in Lehman debt securities.
The losses threatened to drain Farmer Mac's capital below the minimum level required by regulators. Farmer Mac's move to sell $65 million of preferred stock to some of its biggest banking customers brought its capital level up to $210 million, above the minimum statutory requirement of $181 million.
Most of the new capital came from the five banks in the Farm Credit System, a network of lenders created by Congress in 1916 to lend to farmers. An additional $5 million of preferred stock was purchased by Zions Bancorp of Salt Lake City, which has owned about a fifth of Farmer Mac's voting shares.
As part of the rescue plan, the preferred stock bought by the Farm Credit System banks will pay an initial annual dividend of 10%. The Farm Credit System banks also get the right to nominate three observers to the Farmer Mac board.
FARMER MAC 1.0 PE Ratio $3.1 $30 in August
Freddie is good but Farmer Mac (AFM) is BEYOND BELIEF.
AGM was over $30 a few weeks ago.
Only 10 MM float.
NO Sub prime OR Alt A exposure.
$30 MM Market cap for $3 annual EPS.
Now that AGM solved the financial short term issue, this is an incredible buy.. unlike residential housing farm sector is BOOMING.
A group of farm lenders rescued Farmer Mac from a glut of souring investments by injecting $65 million of fresh capital into the smaller cousin of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
As part of the move Wednesday, Farmer Mac, which is chartered by Congress to operate a secondary market for farm loans, replaced Henry D. Edelman as its chief executive, a position he had held since its creation in 1989.
Mr. Edelman, 59 years old, was succeeded by Michael A. Gerber, the 49-year-old chief executive of Farm Credit of Western New York. Mr. Gerber will hold the position until a permanent CEO is found for Farmer Mac, which is formally known as Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp.
In 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading Wednesday, Farmer Mac's heavily traded nonvoting Class C shares jumped 66%, or $2.69, to $6.79 a share. The stock traded at about $29 a share a month ago, before a mid-September tailspin.
Farmer Mac's stumble comes as farm banks are riding high. While bad debts are battering the home-mortgage industry, rural lenders are benefiting from a two-year boom in grain prices, which is lifting farmland prices to record levels. Because land is the biggest source of collateral for farmers, the farm-debt picture is its brightest in decades: The delinquency rate on the $9.5 billion in farm and rural loans under Farmer Mac's umbrella is the lowest in its history.
What got Farmer Mac in trouble were losses in its investment portfolio, which included one million preferred shares of Fannie Mae. The value of the shares evaporated when the federal government took Fannie Mae into conservatorship Sept. 7, and Farmer Mac faced a $44 million write-down. A week later, Farmer Mac took another hit when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy code, casting a cloud over its holdings of $60 million in Lehman debt securities.
The losses threatened to drain Farmer Mac's capital below the minimum level required by regulators. Farmer Mac's move to sell $65 million of preferred stock to some of its biggest banking customers brought its capital level up to $210 million, above the minimum statutory requirement of $181 million.
Most of the new capital came from the five banks in the Farm Credit System, a network of lenders created by Congress in 1916 to lend to farmers. An additional $5 million of preferred stock was purchased by Zions Bancorp of Salt Lake City, which has owned about a fifth of Farmer Mac's voting shares.
As part of the rescue plan, the preferred stock bought by the Farm Credit System banks will pay an initial annual dividend of 10%. The Farm Credit System banks also get the right to nominate three observers to the Farmer Mac board.
The Dow trading WAY below 1997 levels on Inflation adjusted basis.. about 6000.
AGM $3 was $30 in Augsut. Bought back on Friday. This is the most important piece of DD on AGM: 0 Exposure to Sub Prime.
AGM was $30 recently, annualized EPS in $3 range. AGM has 0 Sub Prime or Alt A exposure, no reason for it to have fallen to these levels after capital infusion put its regulatory capital back to required levels:
Farmer Mac maintains cash and liquidity investments in cash equivalents (including commercial paper and other short-term money market instruments) and liquid investment securities that can be drawn upon for liquidity needs. As of June 30, 2008, Farmer Mac’s portfolio of non-program investments consisted of: $712.4 million of cash and cash equivalents; $686.1 million of securities issued or guaranteed by GSEs or the U.S. Government and its agencies; $9.9 million of commercial paper; $142.1 million of commercial bank certificates of deposit; $307.3 million of asset-backed securities (principally backed by Government guaranteed student loans); and $537.1 million of corporate debt securities, including financial institutions. Farmer Mac did not hold any investments in securities backed by sub-prime or Alt-A residential or commercial mortgages or home-equity loans.
Bought back into AGM Friday. This is the most important piece of DD on AGM: 0 Exposure to Sub Prime.
AGM was $30 recently, annualized EPS in $3 range. AGM has 0 Sub Prime or Alt A exposure, no reason for it to have fallen to these levels after capital infusion put its regulatory capital back to required levels:
Farmer Mac maintains cash and liquidity investments in cash equivalents (including commercial paper and other short-term money market instruments) and liquid investment securities that can be drawn upon for liquidity needs. As of June 30, 2008, Farmer Mac’s portfolio of non-program investments consisted of: $712.4 million of cash and cash equivalents; $686.1 million of securities issued or guaranteed by GSEs or the U.S. Government and its agencies; $9.9 million of commercial paper; $142.1 million of commercial bank certificates of deposit; $307.3 million of asset-backed securities (principally backed by Government guaranteed student loans); and $537.1 million of corporate debt securities, including financial institutions. Farmer Mac did not hold any investments in securities backed by sub-prime or Alt-A residential or commercial mortgages or home-equity loans.
DTG +80% will open at $2.50 IMO. In an bad economy people are thrifty. $7 per share cash, now profitable, was $6 a few weeks ago.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DTG
DTG +80% will open at $2.50 IMO. In an bad economy people are thrifty. $7 per share cash, now profitable, was $6 a few weeks ago.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DTG
DTG +80% will open at $2.50 IMO. In an bad economy people are thrifty. $7 per share cash, now profitable, was $6 a few weeks ago.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DTG
MED smokin.. recession proof fitness health stock
http://seekingalpha.com/article/100703-medifast-record-q2-sales-optimistic-q3?source=yahoo
MED smokin.. recession proof fitness health stock
http://seekingalpha.com/article/100703-medifast-record-q2-sales-optimistic-q3?source=yahoo
2.5 PE China play CDS:NASDAQ ($3.35)
CDS is my top China pick to rebound FAST to $6 + for the following reasons:
-Tiny PE
-Small 5 MM float
-CDS is a magnesium producer in China and China magnesium prices have held up well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080807/clth045a.html?.v=1
-Will run into Q3 earnings.
-Low float stocks usually do VERY well on November
Also love SUTR here.
2.5 PE China play CDS:NASDAQ ($3.35)
CDS is my top China pick to rebound FAST to $6 + for the following reasons:
-Tiny PE
-Small 5 MM float
-CDS is a magnesium producer in China and China magnesium prices have held up well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080807/clth045a.html?.v=1
-Will run into Q3 earnings.
-Low float stocks usually do VERY well on November
Also love SUTR here.
2.5 PE China play CDS:NASDAQ ($3.35)
CDS is my top China pick to rebound FAST to $6 + for the following reasons:
-Tiny PE
-Small 5 MM float
-CDS is a magnesium producer in China and China magnesium prices have held up well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080807/clth045a.html?.v=1
-Will run into Q3 earnings.
-Low float stocks usually do VERY well on November
Also love SUTR here.
Next Financial runner BBX 10 MM float 2 MM Insider Buys $6.70 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=BBX
BBX was $45 last year now $6.50.
MASSIVE 2 Million insider buys, 10 MM float.
ZERO sub prime loan exposure
Well don't believe everything u read. Minority interest yes, but I believe its 50%, so cash goes to $3 / share from $6 and total cash goes from $12 to $6.
MHJ: $1.99 $12 / share net cash, profitable China low floater
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MHJ
If you are looking to buy so,me of these stocks at crazy fire sale prices look at MHJ.
$80 MM or $12 / share cash.
Net cash after debt is $6 / share.
With a tiny 3 MM float will rise fast with market rebound MHJ pearls will always be in high demand.