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UREC, very cool!
Also, very fitting following Gas Chaser's post.
This underdog story has had its lows.. one day soon it will have its highs.
May 17th for areas with low infection rates. Glad they have bad reporting... Hopefully this means herd immunity for Mexico.
Sempra expecting their Mexico export permit this quarter. Great hearing Dan B. has been instrumental in that. Shows that the exporting of American LNG/gas is important to our O&G industry and the US government is therefore involved (hopefully with aiding Mirage too as our issues with Mexico are nearly identical).
USMCA/ T-MEX Agreement going into effect July 1st. Is it in anybody’s best interest to wait until after July 1st to put boots on ground? (Think Mirage, Sempra, Trump, & AMLO). Anybody have insight into these party’s perspectives? I’m really not familiar with the agreement to say either way.
Thanks, Gas Chaser. Phenomenal.
More like cinco de Juno
Agreed - but AMLO has also mentioned discussions with the US and Canada in the context of strategy in reopening the economy... not just TMEX.
Dr. López Gatell said this morning that May 6th will be the peak of the Coronavirus in Mexico if preventative measures remain in place.
(I think) the first stage of reopening the Mexican economy is scheduled for May 17th, and the second for May 30th. So, those US/MX strategies would be implemented by the end of this month. Hopefully energy is included.
On a slightly different topic regarding Sempra:
From the NGI article I posted yesterday (published on 4/23) it was stated that Sempra was only awaiting their export permit from Mexico for their ECA LNG project. I found this article in the link below, dated 2/20, and Sempra's CEO was speaking towards the immense difficulty of the Mexico permitting process. I REALLY appreciate seeing this as it confirms that the complications/delays we've experienced are not just "excuses" made up by Ward.
Misery loves company, but it does not improve our situation. It only means that the problem is much larger than just Mirage Energy.
________________________________________________________________________
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121100-ienova-to-make-fid-on-mexico-lng-project-in-coming-month
Wow, this is incredibly interesting. So, Sempra was a competitor for the natural gas storage facility? Mirage beat them out?
You are welcome - I know the board has been quiet, but the few posts we’ve had, are very informative.
The point of my post was that Sempra is in the same boat as Mirage in dealing with Mexico. Both companies project’s deal with the United States’ ability to export fuel; Sempra for liquid natural gas and Mirage for natural gas.
A key focus for Dan B. and Trump is the exporting of American fuel!
AMLO consistently over the past several days keeps referring to Mexico being ready for foreign investment. The US needs Mexico’s factories back up in running for our imports. AMLO has said that opening the factories will encourage that foreign investment. Trump, guaranteed, will make Mexico hold up their end of the deal!!!
A multi-billion dollar oil & gas package will be announced by Trump in the coming days; aimed to benefit small to medium sized companies.
The story is huge.
Landscape
4/29
"[AMLO on Wednesday said] that his administration “had begun discussions” with private industry and representatives from the United States and Canada on plans for economic reopening."
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121827-mexico-worries-mount-as-coronavirus-cases-rise-and-lockdown-extends-through-end-may
________________________________________________________________________
4/29
"The U.S. is now the world's largest producer and consumer of energy. Because of this, and because of our still-incredible energy production capacity, we do not just have a seat at the table — we are able to set the table. We are able to engage, with strength and authority, our counterparts in energy-producing nations.
"This new reality is a direct consequence of Trump's prioritizing American energy independence and enacting smart policies to make it a reality — right-sizing regulations, cutting bureaucratic red tape, cutting taxes, advocating for American energy exports, and focusing the U.S. Department of Energy on next-generation energy innovation."
-US Secretary of Energy, Dan Brouillette
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/us-energy-independence-can-still-lead-the-way
________________________________________________________________________
4/23
IEnova Waiting on Mexico Export Permit to Sign Off on Baja California LNG Project
The Energía Costa Azul (ECA) liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project in Mexico’s Baja California is still set for a final investment decision this quarter pending the receipt of an export approval.
While saying that the “core of the business model remains the same,” IEnova CEO Tania Ortiz admitted that some projects and capital spending might be delayed this year, while permitting in Mexico, including the request for the LNG export permit, has slowed because of the pandemic.
“Overall this [ECA] is a project that is very beneficial to Mexico and I believe the administration is aware of that… But we are seeing disruptions because of the current situation.”
The proposed two-phase ECA liquefaction project, a joint venture between San Diego-based Sempra Energy subsidiaries IEnova and Sempra LNG, would be built adjacent to Sempra’s existing ECA LNG receipt terminal near the city of Ensenada. The target market is East Asia.
“The only thing not in our control is the export permit,”
Executive Chairman Carlos Ruiz said.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121772-ienova-waiting-on-mexico-export-permit-to-sign-off-on-baja-california-lng-project
_______________________________________________________________________
Are you saying the “commitments” that are expected this week are policies dealing with non-essential and essential businesses?
If what Rocio Nahle said during her interview this past Thursday is true, about Mexico wanting to wait for the oil market to stabilize before they make their oil plans public; how long do you guys suppose they’d like to see a progression in the price per barrel before they are ready to pull the trigger?
If we get though this week continuing the upward price trend, that will be nearly two weeks. Will that suffice for an announcement the first week of May?
Current O & G Landscape:
Trump floats funding for oil after historic market loss
04/21/20
President Trump on Tuesday floated providing funds for the oil and gas industry after oil saw its largest market drop in history the day prior, with prices sliding to as low as negative $40 per barrel.
"We will never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down," Trump tweeted. "I have instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available so that these very important companies and jobs will be secured long into the future."[/i]
The president did not provide additional details after his tweet. The White House declined comment, and the Energy and Treasury departments did not immediately respond to The Hill's request for additional information.
Oil prices settled at negative $37.63 on Monday and opened at negative $14 on Tuesday.
On Tuesday, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette had a phone call with several House Republicans on the price drop and possible relief that could be provided to oil and gas producers.
“From working with our oil producing allies in North America, to filling up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and to ensuring that oil and gas producers have access to the Fed lending facilities created in the CARES Act, the Secretary reaffirmed that all options remain on the table and that President Trump is committed to solving this problem," said a statement from a spokeswoman for Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who led the lawmakers on the call.
An Energy and Commerce Committee spokesperson also told The Hill that while on the call, Ranking Member Greg Walden (R-Ore.) brought up "working with Mexico and Canada on a North American approach to an energy strategy" and that Brouillette agreed that it was important to work with these countries.
At a press conference on Monday following the price drop, the president did not suggest funding the industries directly but instead doubled down on his desire to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
His administration has said it would rent space in the reserve to producers — something they'd be paid for in oil — after Congress declined to provide funding for the government to purchase oil in a coronavirus stimulus package.
Even before Monday's developments, the industry had been facing a downturn amid a drop in demand due to the coronavirus and a production standoff between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Both of those countries, as well as the U.S. and others, have since said they would cut their oil production.
It was also reported last week that the Trump administration was considering paying companies to leave oil and gas in the ground.
Some lawmakers have also pushed for oil and gas companies to be eligible for federal loans included in a past stimulus package.
“There is no question that one of the hardest hit industries — and one of the most critical to Alaska — is the oil and gas sector,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) wrote in a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin earlier this month.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/493846-trump-floats-funding-for-oil-after-historic-market-loss
You guys are welcome, thanks.
Here are some other observations:
- On Monday, the US urged Mexico to reopen factories that export goods into the US
- AMLO said on Wednesday that Mexico is "ready for foreign investment".
- Price of oil is up for the fourth day in a row.
Sener will wait to present the energy plan
Thursday, April 23rd @ 3:07pm
The presentation of the energy plan to deal with the fall in oil prices in the world is still going to wait due to the great instability in the world crude oil market, said Energy Secretary Rocío Nahle.
Although it had been announced that the strategy would be presented jointly by the Secretariats of Energy and Finance, as well as by Petróleos Mexicanos, "it would be imprudent or irresponsible to give data when the market is faltering around the world."
Briefly interviewed after leaving a meeting with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to evaluate the energy sector, Nahle said that Mexico should act with caution before making public its oil plans in the short term.
He explained that at the meeting they reviewed the progress of the construction of the Dos Bocas refinery, a project that will continue. Asked about the voices that ask to defer the work, the official said that they are not positions of specialists in the field of refining, so it will continue.
https://www.jornada.com.mx/ultimas/economia/2020/04/23/esperara-sener-a-presentar-plan-energetico-3859.html
Ah I see. Well ante up my friend.
$MRGE$
Juancy, why not open a new account? Schwab is what I use. You could same day wire to trade tomorrow.. or do a transfer to trade on Tuesday.
Who knows how long we have.
True, although myself and other newcomers probably have benefited from his silence.
Tweet from Monday, 4/20:
Ministry of Social Development
We hold videoconference with @PCEstatalVer, @SEDEMAVeracruz, @SIOPVeracruz, CAEV and @SEDECOPVer, to work on the "General Program of the Tehuantepec Isthmus Development Plan", in which the Governments of Veracruz, Oaxaca, and the Federation participate.
One of those groups present deal with Port Development and the strengthening of private sector companies. Their twitter page: https://twitter.com/SEDECOPVer
You bet.
I'm not ruling out the first part of next week either. Just enough unfolding here to keep an eye out.
AMLO this week:
Monday:
- Announced that the morning conference on Wednesday would be dedicated to credits, Thursday for welfare programs, and Friday for major project development.
Wednesday:
- Issued Decree for the National Recovery Plan, gave birds eye view. Development of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec identified as a priority project.
- Stated that on Friday; Rocio Nahle, Arturro Herrera, and Octavio Romero will be in attendance.
Thursday:
- Discussed credits to mexico citizens (check)
- Discussed welfare programs (check)
- Stated Mexico is ready for foreign investment from the US.
"It is an asset of the current government that has managed to maintain a good relationship with the government of the United States and Mexico, it has excellent conditions for foreign investment to arrive, jobs are created, industrialization is promoted, because the economic market is assured most important commercial center in the world”
Friday:
- Major Project Development scheduled.
- Strategy to refine more crude oil for gasoline
An unveiling of the projects involved in the development of the Isthmus... Easily includes all three of Ward’s projects.
Isn’t an amazing; an enormous energy package kicked around and fumbled, a pandemic, and an oil crisis yet Mirage’s projects still stand.
Absolutely incredible.
Tidbits:
Article 1:
"The Tehuantepec Isthmus Development Project will continue as on of the priority projects"
"For his part, the local deputy for Coatzacoalcos, Amado Cruz Malpica, confirmed that the works for the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec continue on both the railways and the ports of Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz."
https://imagendelgolfo.mx/coatzacoalcos/proyecto-del-desarrollo-del-istmo-de-tehuantepec-seguira-pese-a-pandemia-/50010117
______________________________________________________________________
Aricle 2:
On AMLO this morning..
"He also said that on Friday he will give more details about these measures when they attend the morning conference Rocío Nahle, Secretary of Energy; Arturo Herrera, Secretary of the Treasury; and Octavio Ramírez Oropeza, director of Pemex. "
https://www.milenio.com/politica/amlo-anuncia-obras-detendran-pese-crisis-covid-19
No, not necessarily.
My understanding:
This presidential decree, once published in the Gazette, becomes law. It likely will reflect what was spoken this morning, imo, which will be a bird’s eye view of the decreed recovery plan.
The details will be unveiled over the course of several days as there is a lot happening. AMLO used words like “immediately” and “urgent” in reference to implementing his decreed plan.
AMLO said on Monday that morning conferences on Wednesdays will be dedicated to updates on credits, Thursday’s on welfare programs, and Friday’s to Major Project Developments. I know many are looking for news the first part of next week.. My opinion, it will be on a Friday. Either this one or the next, but nothing between.
Subject to mistranslation, but the articles reads “will be published this Wednesday, April 22nd”
AMLO's Decree to Recover the Economy
The decree will enter into force once it is published in the Official Gazette of the Federation , this same day, and which establishes the immediate application of various measures in the current circumstances.
The President's Plan includes the urgent application of the following measures:
No worker will be fired, but there will be no new hires and the salary of officials will be reduced by 25 percent, in the same way senior public officials will not have bonuses or any other end-of-year benefits, the concept of high official applies from deputy director to the president of the Republic.
75% of the available budget of items of material services and supplies will not be exercised, this also includes those supposedly committed. 10 undersecretaries are canceled , but the rank and salary of those who leave said positions are maintained, in addition to half the offices being closed and only those considered essential for the people to remain .
The suspension of work with pay will be extended to those who are already in this situation until August 1.
Half of the offices should be closed, with the exception of those that serve the public directly and those that are considered essential for the benefit of the people. An effort will be made to relocate public servants based on priority, in order to stop renting buildings , vehicles, warehouses and real estate, among other savings.
Government actions and spending are postponed except for priority programs
The Ministry of Finance will have the necessary resources to fully comply with the delivery of federal participations to the states, the payment of payroll, pensions and the amortization and service of public debt. Fund resources and trusts created by decree of the Executive Power may not be used without authorization from the Ministry of Finance.
The Ministry of Health , the National Guard and the Secretaries of the Navy and National Defense will have exceptional treatment .
The republican austerity law will be rigorously applied .
Efficiency, honesty and austerity will allow the budget to be increased to strengthen the shielding of social programs and priority projects by 622,556 million pesos. At the same time, three million credits will be granted to the neediest population and the middle class. They will create two million new jobs, which will make it possible to protect 70% of Mexican families, equivalent to 25 million households especially the poor and members of the middle classes, all without increasing fuel prices without increasing taxes or create new taxes without indebting the country.
These measures apply to the entire federal Executive Branch , that is, it includes decentralized organizations, majority state-owned companies and public trusts.
He affirmed that his economic plan to attend to the health emergency by COVID-19 , will not cancel the social programs or the works of the "Felipe Ángeles" airport , the Dos Bocas refinery and the Maya Train .
The priority programs, whose actions and expenses are not suspended are:
Pension for the well-being of the elderly
Pension for the well-being of people with disabilities
Sowing life
Support program for the well-being of girls and boys, children of working mothers
Scholarships for well-being Benito Juárez
Construction of 100 public universities
The school is ours
Young people building the future
Tandas for wellness
Welfare bank
Free medical care and medications
Production for well-being
Warranty prices
Fertilizer distribution
Support for fishermen
National Guard
General Felipe Ángeles Airport
Oil production
Rehabilitation of the six existing refineries
Construction of the Dos Bocas refinery
Electric power generation with the generation of hydroelectric plants
Maintenance and maintenance of roads
Labor paths
Rural roads
Roads under construction
Airport system of Mexico City
Completion of the Mexico-Toluca intercity train
Dams and channels
Lake Texcoco Ecological Park
Human improvement program
National reconstruction program
Maya train
Guadalajara train
Internet for everyone
Development of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
Free zone of the northern border
Cultural space of Los Pinos and Bosque de Chapultepec
Defense of human rights
https://www.unotv.com/noticias/portal/nacional/detalle/amlo-firmara-decreto-enfrentar-crisis-economica-por-covid-19-044619//
Development of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Project Details
Description
The Interoceanic Corridor Isthmus of Tehuantepec (CIIT) will be the backbone of the PDIT, which will connect the national and international region and initially, with investments in the following sectors:
1. Railway: Modernization of the Tehuantepec Isthmus Railway, in which curves and slopes will be rectified in various sections of the railway to increase the current speed of the railway, from 40 to 60-80 km / hr.
2. Ports: Includes an expansion at the Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz ports, a container terminal at each port; modernization of the oil port and the construction of a new industrial port, both in Salina Cruz.
3. Roads: Modernization of the MEX-185 highway in various sections; construction of a high specification highway along the CIIT and modernization of feeder and rural roads.
4. Natural Gas: Maintenance and modernization of a 220 km pipeline to transport Natural Gas and supply molecule to industries and communities in the region.
5. Refineries: Maintenance and rehabilitation of the Minatitlán and Salina Cruz refineries, which would increase the production of petroleum derivatives for national consumption and export.
6. Electric Power: Development of wind power plants for electricity generation in the Ixtepec region, Oaxaca. In addition, the construction of 5 electrical substations is included to guarantee a supply of electrical energy in the network of the National Interconnected System of the Isthmus region to the Center of the country.
7.Telecommunications: Installation of underground fiber optics on the railway right of way in order to provide communications to the industries that are installed and to the communities of the Isthmus.
Observations:
The projects derived from the Tehuantepec Isthmus Development Program will be incorporated as soon as they are published.
https://www.proyectosmexico.gob.mx/proyecto_inversion/programa-para-el-desarrollo-del-istmo-de-tehuantepec-pdit/#popme
I’m in this boat
Haha I’m from Texas, it’s all we know. Maybe if I hit the Jackpot here, I’ll no longer have to suffer such poor quality haha
Shoot, I have my firstborn coming in August... he of course comes with momma’s nesting. Quarantine has kept us out of stores, luckily. So, I’m forward to shaking off a few shares once we finally pop.
We sure are here to make $,$$$,$$$. And if the potential for money left, I would be gone as well. I will say though, the life changes that will occur to each of us here will be incredible to both see and hear about...
One story that I got to hear about... someone invested/donated money on behalf of a friend, that his friend may be able with proceeds to finally go and get his degree and make a better way for his wife and kids.
To watch Ward realize his life long work. I hope someone writes a movie about it!
To see Mexico develop as a country. To help discourage illegal immigration. And eventually take over our need for China. Natural gas will be a key role.
I already like Mexican food more.. and Margs. I will cheers one on announcement day.
Tradingonrumors, Solid news, yes; but O’ our lofty prerequisite... AMLO must speak!
And I sure hope Ward has a PR firm lined up by now. If he doesn’t, he needs to get on it!!!!!! The first PR following AMLO’s announcement must be worthy of representing a billion dollar company... as people will already have enough trouble believing this news. Even upon the last two PR’s; some of our own read it and asked the question: “is this real?” Not good.
How long does Ward have to get these ready to fly? Based on the conversations between Trump and AMLO during this week, maybe two weeks max? I hate date setting, but at least rationalizing two weeks (in my head) will help me keep me off the edge of my seat. Seat belt still strapped.
Best thread this board has seen
Kaejrms, Tradingonrumors, Jersey Boy, Macod, gas Chaser... and IBOW... Thank you
Brilliant post, gas chaser.
Since we aren’t making money on MRGE, let’s place some bets on when the announcement will be!
On April 5th, AMLO spoke of Mexico’s public investment in energy of 339 billion pesos to occur “this next week”. He also said there were to be significant financial measures to be taken in May and June. That very well may be when our projects are announced, being foreign private investment in energy infrastructure.. unless the OPEC agreement calls for an expedited implementation of the Isthmus project.
Also, keep in mind, with much of Mexico being shutdown; reporters seem to be limited to what AMLO says. We aren’t getting interviews from Romo, Salazar, Nahle as we once were. Not that they were helpful to begin with haha.
Let’s either hope isthmus is on the fast track and being prepared for announcement in the coming days... or lets just close the door on expectations until June.. for sake of mind.
Can anyone post the full article?
Need either a $2k/year subscription or a 48 hour demo (trial).
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/details-on-yucatan-energy-projects-remain-hazy
Kaeamrjs,
Thanks for the posts.
I may have missed it.. but do we know for sure that the money been forked up for the permits?
Delays caused by farmout disagreements are hopefully wiped off the table.
Inhale AMLO, and exhale that sweet name... “MIRRRAAAAGE”
My opinion.. I could be wrong:
OPEC coming to an agreement to cut production allows market to stabilize. It takes the option for mexico to increase production off of the table which removes pressure from Nahle & AMLO to reactivate farmouts... the prolonged disagreements over farmouts have caused a great portion of the delays.
My speculation
yes!!! Go Trump!!!!!:
The US will reduce 250 thousand barrels of oil for Mexico: AMLO
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador affirmed this Friday that Mexico will decrease its exports by 100,000 barrels of oil after an agreement with the US president, Donald Trump , who also promised that the United States will decrease its production, additionally, 250 thousand barrels of oil so as not to put pressure on Mexican finances .
In this way, the United States promised to offset the reduction in crude oil to which Mexico could not commit, the president explained.
An agreement was reached on a decrease of 100,000 barrels; The United States promises to reduce additionally, to what it was going to deliver, another 250 thousand barrels. This is already formal. Say: we are already there. ”
He explained that yesterday in the call he had with his American counterpart, President Trump began to read the names of all the countries that had accepted the agreement, with the exception of Mexico.
The approach when I told him that they were asking for 100,000 and that we couldn't do it anymore, he very generously, expressed to me that they were going to help us with the additional 250,000 to what they contributed. ”
López Obrador explained that Mexico argued this Thursday at the meeting with OPEC that it could not reduce crude production by about 23%, such as Saudi Arabia or Russia, because those countries produce about 12 million barrels per day on average , unlike of Mexico, which produces about 1,650,000 barrels per day .
"We held on until the end because it has taken a lot of effort to increase production, here we have talked about how for 14 consecutive years they dropped oil production in the country," said the president.
OPEC, Russia and other allies outlined plans to cut their oil production by more than a fifth on Thursday , saying they hoped.
All countries reached an agreement to cut 10 million barrels a day initially , starting in May, with the exception of Mexico, to avoid falling prices.
https://www.unotv.com/noticias/portal/nacional/detalle/amlo-acuerda-con-trump-reduccion-100-barriles-petroleo-042425//
That’s my take; hence why nothing has been said regarding the timing of the announcement this week.
Well, the Ministry of Energy and Business Council have been relentless in their disagreements on how to rescue PEMEX. The crash in crude oil turned the tide towards privatization, prolonging the fight.
If resolution is reached in the price war and the market stabilized, IMO Mexico will proceed without farmouts in the Energy plan.. which is AMLO's preference. That's why I think he wants to wait to see what unfolds..