alive and kicking
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I would imagine newer inhibitors of the main protease could tackle some paxlovid resistance but the inevitable development of resistance over time is probably why companies like enta are also looking at other targets now
Twitter Suspends Pharma Bro Martin Shkreli—Again
It should be obvious why we need new and perhaps better drugs to fight Covid. Here is a reminder why.
COVID will eventually evade Paxlovid, Deborah Birx says
— Jess (@MeetJess) April 29, 2023
“Right now, we’re just accepting that 270,000 Americans died last year,” she said. “Two-hundred and seventy thousand. We’re going to easily lose over 100,000 this year. That, to me, is not success.” https://t.co/uF1PG8HM7M
It is obvious to anyone with a functioning brain why we need new and perhaps better drugs to fight Covid. Here is a little reminder.
COVID will eventually evade Paxlovid, Deborah Birx says
— Jess (@MeetJess) April 29, 2023
“Right now, we’re just accepting that 270,000 Americans died last year,” she said. “Two-hundred and seventy thousand. We’re going to easily lose over 100,000 this year. That, to me, is not success.” https://t.co/uF1PG8HM7M
The Motley Fool has also issued a very good report on IMGN.
Apropos to your "turtle" comment, IMGN was founded in 1980!
IMGN is up some 25% today on its earnings report with better than expected of sales of Elahere, their anti-Ovarian cancer ADC. The confirmatory phase 3 MIRASOL trial reached its pre-specified PFS number so results are expected in mid-May. Positive results should lead to full approval for Elahere. Looks like the IMGN turtle is finally approaching the finish line.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/28/why-shares-of-immunogen-jumped-friday/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Elahere sales from Q1, the first full quarter after approval were $29.2 million. Full year guidance will come in the second half of 2023. If the MIRASOL data is good and leads to full approval in the US and the EU, that sales figures will have to be revised next year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/immunogen-reports-recent-progress-first-103000648.html
Nice stock price jump today on better than expected Elahere sales and a lower than expected loss. The phase 3 MIRASOL trial also reached the pre-specified number of PFS events, so the trial data will be available in mid-May. Good times look like they are finally coming for IMGN investors. It has been a long wait.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/immunogen-reports-recent-progress-first-103000648.html
The angry dog barks, but the caravan moves on.
Much Lower than average volume on no news has accompanied this drop. I don’t worry myself of such moves. As Warren Buffett said, the stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing in the long run. The only thing that matters right now is the upcoming phase 2 data.
willyw,
Just to add to your cemmentary, the Pardes drug wasn't very good and pales in comparison to EDP-235. See slide 26 of ENTA's presentation.
Some data comparisons.
Vero cell IC50
EDP235 is 68x more potent than the Pardes drug
Vero cell IC90
EDP235 is 54x more potent than the Pardes drug
https://ir.enanta.com/static-files/0b9a9564-339c-4501-8c98-eab636846bf4
An even bigger sidebar is that lack progress in HBV doesn't concern me that much either. They have a potent HBV antiviral (EDP-514) and the competition is also moving very slowly. They could still have a future valuable asset or partnership. I would not characterize it as dead.
And who said that the RSV trial was a failure? Not I.
You are concluding it was a failure simply because the "healthies" recovered at a rate similar to those administered ENTA's RSV drug. You seem to conclude then that *therefore* it cannot work on other groups of immuno compromised/suppressed groups (young, old, immuno compromised)
For me the up front money secured by Mavyret agreement means that there is no money bottleneck. It puts ENTA in a stronger bargaining position if there were to be a partner. You don't want to be in a position where you are desperate to deal. (that's my opinion)
I am crossing fingers for you and have considered going back to the well myself. I can almost see the runway from here.
Landings are always the hardest part. : )
It's always good to get feedback- both constructive positive and negative.
What an accomplishment! And a day later this POS is back below $19.
Many have gone to cash in this period of uncertainty- that is not a referendum on Enanta's covid program per se.
This was a smart and prudent move by ENTA. That should be obvious to anyone with a functional brain, which leaves out our friend Jake. ENTA was going to have to raise cash in a year or so, and with big rise in interest rates over the last year, if they didn't do this they were facing either dilutive financing or a loan on less favorable terms than in a long while. No worries about cash for a while now. All attention shifts to the phase 2 trial data which is due on a few weeks. While ENTA investors hope for, or expect the data to be very good, there is no guarantees. That is why this deal for ~54% of future MAVYRET revenues and placing a cap on revenues sold, were a smart prudent move. By keeping half of the revenues, ENTA will still benefit in MAVYRET revenues rise post-Covid.
ENTA’s partial monetization of the Mavyret royalty stream is a wise move (IMO), although they probably should have done it sooner. I commented on this in #msg-166883690.
As you know there have been multiple attempts at a universal flu vaccine using conserved epitopes. This is more of a shotgun approach. The problem is you need to increase the dose for every epitope so unless you can get a very low effective dose per antigen you give up tolerability.
As you know there have been multiple attempts at a universal flu vaccine using conserved epitopes.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2795046
I do think mRNA is the future for flu now because of speed. You can create a vaccine in record time so you can wait until the strains that are circulating are known with better certainty.
I don't have a strong opinion on MRNA. They have a lot of irons in the fire, and have had some good news of late w later stage pipeline as they look to move beyond just a covid vaccine - e.g. RSV, melanoma
Vin, sorry, I was addressing the guy who was criticising your post without giving his reasons for doing so. Apologise for the ambiguity.
Please explain your thinking.
ENTA’s GC exercised and held $250K of stock on 4/18/23:
Martin Shkrelli launches healthcare AI - Dr Gupta.Ai
Change the grade from 6.5 to a flat 6 :)
All told, the transaction should be construed as bullish. If the options holder did not confidently expect an increase in the share price, there would be no incentive to exercise the options early and pay the immediate tax liability.
MRNA, IBM ink collaboration to apply IBM’s quantum computing and generative AI to MRNA’s mRNA drug discovery:
Results from ENTA's phase 2 trial of EDP-235 are due sometime in May. Hopefully we will see some impressive anti-viral activity that will drive a deal in the near future.
Sometimes the stock market really makes me laugh. Quite a fluctuation in RVNC stock price on zero news.
More preclinical data on EDP-235, EDP-323 @ECCMID:
To determine the in vivo drug distribution into target tissues, including potential COVID-19 reservoirs: lung, heart, salivary glands, kidney, adipose tissue and lung alveolar macrophages, rats were dosed orally with 25 mg/kg of EDP-235 or nirmatrelvir and plasma and tissue drug levels were analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The ratios of intracellular to extracellular concentrations of EDP-235 in salivary gland epithelial cells, adipocytes, and macrophages were 11.3, 33.6 and 30.5, respectively, compared to ratios ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 for nirmatrelvir in these human cells. Consistent with the in vitro observations, EDP-235 showed excellent target tissue exposure with tissue-to-plasma ratios of 6.5 in salivary glands, 23.0 in adipose tissues, and 28.4 in lung alveolar macrophages, whereas nirmatrelvir had corresponding values of 0.8, 0.6, and 0.5. These preclinical data demonstrate that EDP-235 achieved preferential target tissue distribution and cell penetration, enabling EDP-235 to target viral reservoirs and minimize viral persistence, which are important factors potentially related to some cases of long COVID-19.
I’m not dissembling. I hope Daxxify does well and RVNC stock does well. The danger on these boards is that it becomes an echo chamber. So I’m trying my best to give my honest perspective….as an investor and practice owner.
It’s been 4 months since our 10 staff was injected. Pretty much all participants are seeing some movement…..maybe equivalent to 2-2.5 month mark of Botox/Jeuveau. At this point, our experience is fine. Not “wow”! But good.
I think sometimes we get so caught up in the science (peptide, duration, etc) . But at the end of the day, it’s an injector in the room with a patient. And the patient will do what the medical professional recommends 9/10 times. And so trying to better understand what influences the injector/practice to use one toxin over the other is critical.
Of course none of this addresses whether Daxxify will become a major player and if so, how ling it will take. Obviously I am betting if will do so, at least at some point, and hopefully sooner rather than later.
A derm came in yahoo and mentioned RVNC terribly...
Yes, it has been discussed at considerable length. See, for instance, #msg-171073804 and the links embedded in that post.
Has this Jeuveau phase II study been discussed. They claim 6 months or longer Glabellar line improvement. Was this because they used a different, less stringent metric for improvement than RVNC? It seems to be a very small number of patients in the high dose arm and the metics seem vague as they lump together 1pt improvement or greater. No separation into effect of patients with severe wrinkles or with moderate wrinkles for each arm.
https://s29.q4cdn.com/603291515/files/doc_events/2023/Jan/30/updated/2023.01.30-analyst-call-extra-strength-phase-ii-study-interim-results-website.pdf
The May readout is in lower risk patients with covid where paxlovid failed to show a clinical benefit, so the market may be uneasy about the upcoming readout. I continue to think good data in higher risk patients where paxlovid also showed benefit is enough to catapult the value of the drug because of it's better profile vs paxlovid, but I am keeping my expectations in check for the May data - safety and difference in viral load without necessarily better resolution of symptoms is my base case, and any benefit clinically would be a huge added bonus
ENTA took a big hit today. Given it occurred the same day that the Biden administration announcement that the government is ending the Covid emergency on May 11, that might spooked some people. Covid will be here a long time so there will be a continuing need for anti-Covid drugs, which hopefully will include EDP-235. Still, I would feel a lot better when the EDP-235 phase 2 data is released, well, only if it looks good.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/covid-19-national-emergency-end-biden/index.html
Vin. I think he was answering my question which was therapeutic specific.
Looks like Biden's announcement that the government is ending the Covid emergency on May 11 might spooked some people. Sadly, Covid will be here a long time so there will be a continuing need for anti-Covid drugs, which hopefully will include EDP-235.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/covid-19-national-emergency-end-biden/index.html
I just want to be clear I'm not an RVNC bear nor do I have any interest in shorting it.
There was just some discussion about why the stock is down and I like arguing.
Because they likely are ill enough to require quarterly visits anyway. These are unwell people: