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SSC, JMHO if SEO were willing to settle for $2-$4 per share we would have been history a long time ago. I think he has to be asking for enough that no company is willing to pay it without drilling results. I may be surprised by a $2 buyout but think SEO is not going to settle for less than a Billion when Grandur got 2-3 billion for his shares in Addax.
Remember, Mark said in one of his first messages about this information that he didn't want to screw up the deal. What he found out may be something that is not classified as insider knowledge but that one side or the other dosen't want known & if it is known might cause them not to act
Stass, XOM is used to paying $2 - $4 per barrel for oil in the ground, I believe someone posted they thought that was why they sold out of block 1 too Addax. I belive that SEO standing firm on his asking price caused them to think the JDZ was too expensive. Now the chinese are coming in and raising the ante & SEO might not be so out of line anymore.
bayfisherii, I don't know if we will ever wake up to a offer like you are proposing. I think SCC is way too low at $2 to $4, I believe Offors price is much higher and that is why Exxon sold out of block 1. Wheather its $2 or $4 or 7.50 or $10.00, all we can do is wait and see.
I am sure what Mark heard and can't communicate to us has to do with some offer either made by or to Offor, or maybe some implied offer. We will just have to wait "untill drilling results", if its $2 I am going to be happy, but not as happy as if its $10.00 and I will be estatic with $27.75. Now thats a number you can dream about.
I believe you are right they haven't figured out the four wells starting in august include the Kina prospect. The four wells earlier this year are still being drilled.
LittleKownski, its posted in the ibox now
Has anyone had a chance to study the new Nigerian oil law? Does it have the "Nigerian Ownership" clause they were discussing a few months ago?
There was a proposal while they were crafting this law to award the blocks that were taken from foriegn interest that were not developing them to "Nigerian Oil Companies"because the percent of oil controled by nigerian oil companies had decreased by more than 50%.
This could make SEO very attractive as a business partner, EHRE awarded these proven but undeveloped onshore & shallow water blocks and then hiring Senoplec/Addax to operate them.
I think that is a minimum spending number and it could be spent on more seismec or other exploration, does not have to be a well.
Tryoty, if you email me at smp@sdmtl.com I will tell what I remember about P6 and you can tell me what I have wrong
The sedco energy is currently in the gulf leased to Chevron, not shell, I don't know how to see who had it six months ago
Also did shell have both Sedco's under lease in the gulf? If so it might have originally been the other rig
I think the next anouncement of where they drill in block 4 will be telling, someone posted it was supose to be Kina South, if they go back and drill twice at Kina they can prove the prospect, isn't this what was posted earlier it takes three wells to prove the reservoir?
Am I miss understanding what was posted?
Iwonder2, it could thats why I said I would try and simplify it for explanation purpose. I used all long term gain to show how the simplest calculation would work. If your regular income is enough to take you above the 15% tax bracket I believe you get no benifit from the 0 rate. Its a break that benifits the middle class, those with enough income to have capital gains or able to make capital gains but not enough ordinary income to wipe out the benifit
I will try and make this simple, it is not, but long term capital gains are being taxed at a 0% rate to the extent they are less than the 15% bracket. Short term capital gains are being taxex the same as in 2007. On a individual you don't pay tax on the first $9450 of income ($3500 personal exemption and $5950 standard exemption) the next $8025 is taxed at 10% and the next $24,525 is taxed at 15%. during 2008, 2009 and 2010 long term capital gains up to $32550 of taxable income will be taxed at $0. so if you had total income of $42,000, all from long term gains, you would owe no tax. If you had the same income from short term gains you would owe $4,481.25. It becomes more complicated if you have other types of income, such as interes or dividends.
Consult your tax professional or dig out details on how it might effect you yourself
Lughead, I am not selling I am holding on to every share I have. I am counting on SEO being a Knight of the Church and not wanting anyone to besmurch his reputation. Anyone who makes as big a deal of his honors, and already has 3 billion, is not going to do anything to deminish his repoutation. Just IMHO
Walldog, SEO still owns the stock he is using for security at the bank 43% in his name and 8% in the banks total 51%. Now of the other 49% who among the friends of SEO own part of that?
I am also not talking about changing any corporate structure, just selling his 51% and giving SNP control of erhe. They can just wait arround and gather up disapointed shareholders shares at market. They would have to file with SEC that they intended on buying his shares, but SEC will allow a premium on buying control
There would not need to be a change in corporate structure, thats like issuing a second class of stock, not necessary when you control 51%
night, we might even have traders trying to keep the price low untill the deal gets close. With SEO having 51% the remaining 49% is going to be discounted in the market. Now we have drilling we're starting to find out what we have. I would venture that more is known about our drilling in Port Harcord than we know, the supply ships go back and forth between the rigs and the port, so does information.
Why would anyone want to buy in in 05 or 06 like I did, or in 98 like others did when its 2009 before the info starts to be known.
I expect there is going to be more interest from there now wells are being drilled, and share price is so low. Also remember Sinopec can pick up 3,600,000 shares before they have to file with sec, why meeet SEO price on them is you can get them a .65, not parinoid but someone may be watching this company
chris, I believe there are friends of SEO who could maker that buy with pocket change. I think the sec requires disclosure if you buy 5% of outstanding shares, that would be 36,500,000 shares. If news is leaking out in Nigeria/Sao Torme we could have some very big players deciding to jump on SEOs bandwagon
Fishdog, we are in a bubble where some small investors can get some capital gains at 0% in 2008, 2009 and 2010. If they want to take avantage of the 0% they have to carefully construct their tax position & some with carryforward losses are looking at offseting current year gains aginst the loss instead of using it up 3000 per year for the next 17 years.
Tap, also remember this is the second year of free capital gains. Long term capital gains which would normally be taxed at 15% for a married couple with taxable income of less than 67,500 may not be taxed at all. Thats a additional 15% return on your money.
Strass, You have to remember we have part of a minority interest in a corporation totally controlled by SEO. Our shares controll nothing and are discounted in market price because we don't have any say in SEO's plans. He doesn't need us to decide to sell out and we have no say in price.
Our stock is worth more in a sell out because whoever buys is going to want it all, they won't want to keep the shareholders happy & everything OK at the Sec, making us a wholly owned subsidary and delisting the stock will save admin money & get rid of pain in the ass stockholders wanting everything explained to them. Just IMHO.
John, its not the time to compile and compare the data & the geologists to evaluate it. Its the time it takes to explain it to the non-geologists.
Why P2 matters and P6 dosen't, why this log means something good and this one means something bad & how they interrelate. I remember a conference call we had with the developer when I first invested in a small oil well. 3/4ths of the call was technical data that ment nothing to us investors, after explaning why a six ft pay wasn't as inportant as a 4' pay in another place in the well, one of the people at my end said "just what does all this mean"
The promoter said, putting it in plain english, "it means you need to send me another $1000 because we have a oil well"
I am sure we, who had invested because friends of friends had, were a lot easier to satisfy than someone who actually knew what was being discussed and wanted more explanition.
And then there are the PR people, who sometimes have a knack for emphasizing totally irrevalent information.
Fishdog, if this poster knows anything then its not plugged
repost of ssp119's post on Bomu ealier today:
Fishdog (and others),
I can confirm learning yesterday of the same thing re Bomu. TD has been achieved and the Sedco 702 is about to leave (if not already left) upon well completions.
I can add however that multiple zones have been encountered, readings of which come from the wireline logs. The well is being accordingly suspended for now and the plan is to re-enter and flow test later, after drilling another well nearby on Blk 2.
spp119
Multiple zones and planned flow test plus a second nearby well
to be drilled do not sound like complete disappointmeshdog, if this report is correct they did notplug Bomu
My understanding is that it is easier to shutdown a test well you are planning on comming back to than to plug it permanently
My understanding is that almost all Akpo's output is condensate and natural gas, I say almost because I could not be sure it was 100%
ponzi, remember the brazian find is by a governmental owned oil company and is not selling shares where investors might file suit over missleading info. The gulf find is by a major oil company where , even a find like they announced would have little if any effect on share price. Our value is sooo low our officers have to be extra careful.
Size has its advantage, they will let Senopec and Addix anounce during the forth quarter
Retep, not till I know whats down there in these five wells.
I know someone who invested in a shallow oil well, under 4000' in southern Illinois, total cost $2500.00, his share, 1/64 of first years production, almost $18,000.
Would you sell that 1/64 for $7,500? Now a dry hole I would, but before they announce the data on the first two & while they are drilling three more, no way.
I don't think SEO would sell for that either. Share price dosen't mean anything right now.
You have to remember that we are minority interest holders and our stock is greatly discounted because we have a 51% stockholder and have no control of anything.
My greatist fear is that somebody chinese will buy SEOs block and keep the rest of us as minority interest holders till they can buy us up at $1.00 per share
Krombacher, I think there is a mixture of reasons the news was released the way it was.
First one wells preliminary information is not significant to Senopec or Addix
Second, companies are very aware of the litigation environment and don't want to say anything someone can come back later and file suite over
Third, the information is being restricted by the operator, who want to release on their schedule, and
Forth, the operators are not done with their analysis and ready to declare if they have a elephant or a mouse.
I haven't seen anything that says anything about time lines, there was a post either last night or this morning that said that senopec had not done a flow test but would reinter the well when it returned to the block to drill another test well close to Bomu-1.
Someone else posted today that they would need at least one more well in block 2 if they were going to try and develop it for gas.
Another poster also said that the well may show more oil when they go back to it. I think it was kownski, who I believe knows quite a bit about drilling, even if he doesn't claim to be a deep water expert. I have not found him to be wrong or missleading.
Block 1 & 2 are inbetween block 4 and Akpo, My feelings have been that they are shallower than block 4 but deeper than Akpo, who is closer to the coast. The charts don't show the detail of the sea floor outside of the JDZ, but I expected there to be more at OBO and Bomu. There may still be they said 45 meters of net pay at OBO-1 which is actually 146.25 foot.
Someone posted they did not flow test Bomu but would when they drilled a second well in block 2. I am withholding any opinion till they release more info.
Mark, my question is are they still going to drill Kina South as one of those two wells or someplace else in block 4. Kina South is almost part of Kina & they may decide they have enough info on it & drill two other prospects
The PR is almost exactly what I expected, Except for the less than optimum news on Bomu. Non commital, nothing that could triger a lawsuit, I did expect some net pay info.
The biggest thing I see in the notice is Kina South was released earlier as one of the two other wells in block 4 and know the say "to be determined" does this indicate a change of plans?
If enough gas is found it will still be a developable resource
At least no one else has posted a claim yet, I think the international rule is 200 miles of sea, for mineral rights, unless you overlap someone elses claim. That's why they had to have a JDZ treaty to determine who had what rights. Both had legal claim to the area.
Dadd, the JDZ is where Nigerian and Sol Torme teritorial waters overlap, it would have to be adjacent to the EEZ. The EEZ is where no one but Sol Torme has any teritorial claim
it was in the first PR I saw, It said they had found hydrocarbons and 145 ft of net pay, this one says45 meters or 150ft
Chevron Releases Obo-1 Well Results
Source: www.gulfoilandgas.com 5/26/2006, Location: Africa
Drilling
The Nigeria – Sao Tome & Principe Joint Development Authority, Chevron and its co-venturers Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria-Sao Tome (One) Limited, and Dangote Energy Equity Resources, have encountered hydrocarbons in the Obo-1 exploration well in Block 1 of the Nigeria – Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone.
The Obo-1 well logged a cumulative total of at least 150 feet (45 meters) of net hydrocarbon pay in multiple reservoirs and provided important reservoir rock and liquid samples, which need to be evaluated and integrated into the interpretation of the Obo Area to determine the next step of the appraisal process. At this stage, it is premature to determine whether or not Chevron and its co-venturers have made a commercial discovery.
The Obo-1 well is located in 1,720 meters of water (5, 640 feet) and the drilling operation was completed in 63 days on March 15th 2006.
The JDZ Block-1 is located approximately 190 miles (300 kilometers) north of the city of Sao Tome and approximately 125 miles (200 kilometers) south of the city of Port Harcourt in Nigeria. Chevron JDZ Limited has a 51 percent equity share in the block while Esso Exploration
Obo-1 was 145 net ft of pay, should be simular formations
dat, .20 per year per share is still good return on my average price of .68. I was not paying any attention to ERHE since they said OBO-1 was not comercial and missed the whole low price period last spring. I only started following it when my friend who pointed me at this stock told me they were drilling in the third quarter & told me about ihub.
So all my shares have been bought close to the historical highs, but not at the peaks, just on the way to them.
emdyal, with that kind of cash flow they may well, but it takes one stockholder to sell or not sell. If SEO wants more than they are willing to part with it won't sell, if they meet his price it will.
Our share price will raise to reflect the value of what we find down there or if there is a public offer what the share price is offered.
I was in a copper company the chinese wanted a year or so ago, the share price moved right up to their offer, but no one had 51%, we may be selling for $.67 per share now, but we don't know whats down there yet.
If the cash flow looks good enough to them, if our 19.5 or 22% is attractive enough, china has cash to burn, but they won't till they are sure what they are buying.
They have doubled the initial production figures at Akpo and say they may still be on the low side
My belief is that SEO is going to want his share of the payouts, thats why he got in originally, the potentially large payout.