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I need ~7-8$ to break even ...
Bring it on
The action smells like someone knows something
yes some people are trading small positions and have doubled or tripled their money on positions taken in ~ 0.2 range but the big volume , going up on 2 consecutive days tells me something is going on.
i'm sure there are multiple scenarios but i have 2 in mind one good and one bad :)
the bad one is this is all manipulation to ramp up price a bit then do reverse and sell some shares after that
the good one is that we have extremely good results on NEO and as the poster is out it means the results may have leaked ...
I'm praying for option 2
time will tell
Hi proto,
I've been in LWLG for about ten years now. As i continue to own LWLG i wanted to ask you if i am going to buy more at this point would you recommend adding to LWLG position or starting a position in POETF ?
I was out of country and just noticed the proxy filing from late december.
The recent buying is not to use the shares to vote as it is stated in the proxy that to vote you should have owned your shares prior to december 28.
so current buying is short covering, accumulation, anticipation. having said that what bothered me is that they want to increase number of outstanding shares and then do reverse split while keeping authorized number the same, usually authorized number also gets reversed split.
being more than 90% down these 30-40% gain days are barely moving my percentage loss up to 88% in red now. need ~ 8$ / share to go back into green. i don't think its happening any time soon.
i will continue to hold just because there is no point in selling.
good luck people
I'm guessing we will be heading for R/S soon that will put us between 5-10$ range, once there will have 10 million share offering for about 100 million $ proceeds at that point should have enough cash until some sort of deal or bankruptcy, if played well by current management it could be last R/S and offering we need to see. if anyone is looking to enter i would probably buy at the Dip after R/S. just my guess. good luck
LOL
ROTFL
I'm waiting for anything, any news, really any PR, don't care if its good or bad just say something ... the silence ....
is there a way to know who bought the recent stock and warrants ?
Alex not only we claim to be shareholders but LONG TIME shareholders.
I accumulated shares for 10 years , then sold 40% of my shares about 2 months ago at 1.33 with a significant loss, still holding the remaining until the end (now i'm wishing i sold all at 1.33$ but it is what it is)
we sound like we are bashing just because we have seen this so many times and what bashers used to say "wash, rinse, repeat" really keeps on happening here and the problem is that we (the shareholders) feel the company has much more value than what the management is able to achieve especially when we compare to other companies at same stage in development. a nice example would be ADRO at the time they made their billion dollar deal.
I don't know when you joined ADXS or bought shares if you did but this ship sunk too many believers
don't be surprised to see some more anger once they announce the reverse split ... its coming
Good luck everyone
with the filing today i can only see 2 possible outcomes going forward:
They either have a major deal regarding HOT constructs with decent upfront money, this should happen in next 3-4 months otherwise we are going to see more cash raising at unfavorable conditions.
NEO is too far out of being commercialized even if AMGN is developing it as part of their internal pipeline with AMGN full weight behind it.
Having said that early signs of NEO efficacy may trigger an AMGN buyout however that is still also too early to happen, will need about 2 years.
Safe Harbor: all the above may be completely wrong and off compared to what is going to really happen
LOL
This recent offering doesn't make much sense as i see it. It is either a signs of extreme weakness and nothing viable in sight. I think everyone would agree that if they were having a solid deal in the works that will mature in 2-4 weeks they wouldn't have done the offering. and if that is the case and they did offering because they need cash and there are no deals in sight then this 20 million is not going to be enough for nothing and they will have to dilute more and reverse split again etc.
The other possibility is that they are giving away the company to someone Dirt cheap. if there is one entity who bought the offering and warrants thats 30,000,000 million shares which is about a third of would be outstanding stocks and if that same entity is also buying on the open market at these prices of 1 $ from friday and today with 10,000,000 shares traded on friday then someone may be stealing the company for cheap.
of course because filings are delayed we would never know who is doing what.
all of the above is just my speculations ...
i transferred money today to my brokerage account put an order to Buy but then never finalized it, i cancelled it and transferred my money back.
I'm done, never adding any more, i will ride what i still have for better or worse.
Good luck people
what would be good is that if they also follow this quickly with a licensing deal for AXAL even if not with much upfront money as long as we don't incur any additional financial burden that would keep the science moving forward for free. I've always thought that ADXS NEO is really where the money is but there can still be value in the other programs. Also i read last week about Keytruda combo for renal cell cancer with 73% improvement in survival and they were calling these results "unprecedented" i believe that was presented in a conference over the weekend. ADXS has lots of potential current management just needs to navigate the financial difficulties carefully (from current shareholder perspective) as from a company perspective they can dilute and reverse to keep this thing alive as long as they need to.
Good luck
Dan hired Bonstein at ONCS and gave her 650,000 RSU
ROTFL
once they took as much as they could from ADXS they moved on to next victim ... uhum i mean next company
i see your point
With current results they may be discussing with FDA possible approval for short term use in acute PTSD exacerbations as it was effective at 4 weeks so maybe they can squeeze an FDA approval for "short term use in PTSD exacerbation" for patients its definitely better than nothing
Depending on your personality if you sell 50% of your ADXS shares if you are the type of person who sees:
The cup Half full: if ADXS goes down you will be happy you sold half, if ADXS goes up you will be happy with the half you kept.
The Cup Half empty: If ADXS goes down you will be sad you kept the other half, If ADXS goes up you will be sad you sold the first Half
I just realized the above as i have mentioned last week when i sold 40% of my shares now every time it goes up i'm happy with what i have and when it goes down i say good i sold 40% LOL i guess i'm the cup half full type of person
it says they have 1.5 million
on my tdameritrade news feed titled institutional holders 2Q 2018 reported on 7/20 at 3:14 AM
but looks like most of the others added including blackrock, vanguard, renaissance , deutche asset management, DAFNA among others all these seem to have added
Adage sold another 500,000 per report from friday... now they are down to 3.5 million shares
and today we have a 7% rise
this tells me that they are clueless as we are ROTFL
regardless if you call it phase one or phase 3 company, it is still severely undervalued even if just talking about potential of HOT and NEO. plenty of other companies have market caps in multiples of that of ADXS with nothing to show for it not even potential. i believe ken may make a turnaround but it might be too late to do it without one more revers/offering. previous management has wrecked havoc mainly by not focusing resources into high yield products which is what ken is trying to do now. even if big pharma sees the potential don't expect them to come running for a deal, it Oisin their interest if ADXS struggles more so that they can get a better deal that is why financial stability is key for ADXS that is why i see potential for one last reverse split / offering that will give ken the leverage he needs to strike good deals.
of course i could be way wrong, but that is my opinion at this point.
i have a ton of tickers on my watch list but i wouldn't recommend any as i don't want to feel bad if i recommend and they tank LOL
at this point the two that i have for short/medium term are LWLG and SWIR which are also actually excellent long term as well, i was planning to put a lot in LWLG when i win big in ADXS LOL was going to move my profits there :)
when i sold 40% of my ADXS shares last week at 80% loss i invested some of my available cash from that sale into 3 companies LWLG, NXTD, INNV.
here is what 2 of them did in just a few days
INNV: bought at 0.1 sold at 0.13 went up to 0.18 (30 % gain could have been up to 80%)
NXTD bought at 1.46 sold at 1.86 also about 30 % gain
the gain i made in those two transactions covered 1% of the loss i have in ADXS
I have always been the buy and hold type but having been emotionally attached to ADXS i learned a lot over past ten years about stocks and the market
my nature is not a trader but i guess i will be trading some from now on
i continue to hold 60% of my original accumulated shares, i will add back if this drops to 1 or lower otherwise if we skyrocket i will ride my current shares
good luck
sorry for the lack of substance but as part of the ADXS brotherhood i thought i would share what's happening on my side :)
i guess its official, every time i think i should add i should sell and when i think i should sell i should add, so simple i'm gonna try it
nice find, definitely what we are all waiting to hear about any moment now, just hope its good enough to spring us up with no return
you do know that you can carry your loss over to next year and the year after and if it was a big enough loss until you deduct it all 3000 at a time even if it takes a lifetime ....
i
after adding and averaging down for about ten years today i finally sold 40 % of my holdings in one single day. (lost about 80% of my capital doing that)
I think that NEO and HOT have a chance. I think that ken is trying to redirect a sinking ship and yes eventually he may succeed but previous management has caused significant damage to the hull.
I think ken is trying to direct every resource from non revenue generating programs into "potentially" revenue generating program, we already have potential milestones with AMGN for NEO so ken is just trying to make that train move faster by redirecting resources to it. that has been a clear message from the time he spoke at the investor conference and from them putting out one PR to talk about BOTH EMA withdrawal and IND submission, this combined PR was intentional they are trying to show the new direction of the ship.
I need ADXS to reach 8 or 9 $ to break even with my current shares and erase my loss from what i sold today.
It is what it is
we ALL know wether longs, shorts or anything in between that only cash deal / revenue is what is going to turn this around.
If we don't have a deal soon (next 3 months or so) we will need another round of R/S , dilution.
we might wake up tomorrow with a deal announced, we might wake up with another 10 % decline with more funds and retail selling, we might wake up with an offering if they decide to raise money before stock price crashes even more.... as long as we do wake up i think the rest doesn't matter :)
Good luck people
By the way it actually felt good after selling, i kind of felt that this "cash" in the account now will not disappear tomorrow, go figure !
I read the call transcript on seeking alpha... it was good
for the first time you see a combo of people at the helm who both seem to know what to say (we are way away from them delivering but it is definitely a good start)
what i understood:
1. Partner for AXAL within next 3 months otherwise more cost cutting on AXAL to spend on NEO and HOT and preserve cash. I believe that we will probably get a partner soon but with not much upfront. as opposed to bourbons's 100 million, i think we will get 20 million and whatever royalties but we would get the expenditure off our back. i have for long thought that AXAL is a drag from the past and the real money was in NEO and HOT.
2. Will partner with Merck if KEYNOTE results stay good for 6-9 months more, 6 months would be in september and again ADXS and merck have access to results on a continuous basis so deal does not have to happen at 9 months it can happen anytime. i'm sure they were already in negotiations and merck probably downplayed results to make low bid deal while ADXS asked for more and since they couldn't get to an agreement they decided to go for 6-9 more months of survival data which is a double edged sword for both companies if results are good it will give ADXS leverage if results don't persist to be good then merck would have had the better deal of no deal.
3. Firing a quarter of the work force and i'm definitely not happy that people lost there job but the market is always happy with cost cutting, you see stocks across the board rise after companies cut jobs. it a bold move by any company to make such decisions, it shows that management are capable of making hard choices (when it comes to other people's jobs :) and this gives the market confidence in management. (who ever said that wall street is a bunch of nice ethical group of capitalists)
4. Focusing current resources and what they will get from the deals i mentioned in points one and two into NEO and HOT where they expect to make the big money.
The key for all the above is to be able to make two reasonable deals for AXAL and Prostate which will give us enough money to go on without any further dilution.
I think the aggressive positive talk from ken was well accepted by market
PS they might actually make 2 deals for AXAL one for cervical and one for head and neck, along with Prostate that will make 3 deals which we will likely see in the next few months.
stay tuned
in my mind we have two types of CEO's
First: works hard to make a name for the company (and hence himself) which would make him worthy of bonuses and moving higher to bigger companies ETC
Second Type: drags along for 3-5 years getting paid handsomely even when being incompetent. diluting and Reverse splitting along the way until they are let go eventually and then they retire with all the money they made in just a few years doing nothing or they move on to another miserable company to do same thing all over again.
I'm not saying ADXS CEO's past and present are either of the above, i know some people use Ken's ROSG as an example but i've lived enough to know that some people actually are good enough but face uncontrollable circumstances. i would only judge someone in hind sight once they complete their tenure. (of course that is when i have no say in the hiring or firing)
As for DOC other than the way he enriched himself i kind of think he did an OK job, looking back at things, yes he diluted but he did so after good news when stock price went high (looking back at it and comparing it to other dilutions that looks smart now) he had multiple partnerships lined up so overall like i said i think he was heading in right direction but he rewarded himself inappropriately.
Anyways lets see what happens
Getting approval is definitely good however it means nothing for sales which based on partner's sales force may lag and luster
unless we have a good licensing deal / partner with upfront cash, the road ahead is still long and shaky
i'm hoping for the best
we could go down by another 5 % ROTFL
ADXS goes down when we have bad news and goes down some more on good news
i've been here for ten years and that has been the trend, but i'm really really hoping we break that trend ASAP i can't keep on averaging down for ever
FB do you know the follow up time in each of these 3 studies you mentioned the outcomes in ? i'm thinking that as the data we saw was up till march maybe they are waiting for the additional 6 months before giving final verdict ?!
To your point the data was that up till march, maybe they are waiting for the additional 6 months follow up to make a final call on the data. that would put us in September. if results are still looking good in September then maybe thats when we see a deal (might be a bit earlier as they always have access to the data on a continuous basis so if data still looks good they might jump on it any time)
FB this post is the best summary i've seen from all posts over the past 2 days, clearly combo is better than each alone.
I am really hoping we hear something next week before the Business update or the day of
well i don't believe its an overreaction we are already knocking the door on sub dollar and had the business update came with no updates and with 20 million in the bank why on earth wouldn't this drop to below one dollar ?
second point is i got an update, this data today looks encouraging, and i am hoping we get more good news before the update next week
we must have some good news within the next week otherwise if the business update comes with no good news and with empty coffers we are going into penny land.
Its now or never ....
given the 2 scenarios i mentioned i would definitely rather have the first one that's all i'm saying, it doesn't take a math genius to know that more shares is automatic dilution of outstanding shares but some dilution might bring value (as in a deal) while other types would destroy value. read between the lines, some people understand what i'm saying. Good luck
The new shares authorized are key to what is going to happen. If they are going to be sold as part of deals like they did with AMGN deal then that is great but if they are going to sell them via 2 $ offerings then that would kill us. i'm really hoping we hear something of the sort soon, something like AMGN increasing their stake or something like that.
Today it hit me how cheap the stock price is. after adding some shares, i went back and did some calculations and i noted that 15 % of my position was added today !!! thats sad because the tons i had before were bought at much higher prices. being down 80 % is not fun.
Here comes wednesday ....
:)
you know, the sentiment on this board does make a difference... i just added some more :) but this is the last time i add a share (and thats what i said 9 years ago)
The more time passes by without any major negative news the more likely good news is around the corner, we might see a couple more bumps but the rough ride is almost done, again time is relative for someone who has been here ten years plus 2 more years is not much but for someone who has been here for 2 years another 2 years will be a long long wait :)
(yes the hold is negative but it was one patient and likely unrelated to ADXS, when i say major negative news i mean multiple patient adverse events and multiple trials shutting down forever)
here comes Wednesday ...
This price activity is one of 2 things
either some good news has leaked
or they are driving it up for an offering
Or both, similar to what Dan did every time we had good news he followed the spike with an offering and looking in hind sight that might not have been the worse he could do, compare the offering we had after AMGN deal to the one we had most recently at less than 2 $
Here comes tuesday ...