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First Wins?
Mothers will move their daughters to blarcamesine.
Will Happen...
UK Right and Left
Three-letter word change.
Gotta learn from the real experts....
Message board experts, or stock fund managers?
Just being conservative.
No—a different investment perspective. Compare in 2024.
Merely a Matter of TIme
Blarcamesine Beats Trofinetide, Regardless
Well, if I had a daughter with Rett, and saw those data comparisons between blarcamesine (Anavex 2-73) and trofinetide, do you think I’d go with trofinetide because Anavex made some adjustments in what they were measuring during the clinical trial, which then showed these favorable outcome metrics for blarcamesine?
— Safety —
Blarcamesine: Diarrhea – 0.0% Vomiting – 0.0% Fever (Pyrexia) – 0.0%
Trofinetide: Diarrhea – 56% Vomiting – 22% Fever (Pyrexia) – 11%
— Efficacy —
RSBQ:
Blarcamesine: -14.5
Trofinetide: -4.4
How dumb does anyone think mothers of Rett girls might be? Only two things really count: safety and efficacy. Blarcamesine wins, big, for both.
A Big Alzheimer’s Trial is Ongoing
Blarcamesine for Rett can be all in-house.
Who gets the first SIGMAR1 Award?
But more than the science.
Mothers of Rett daughters will speak.
The only things that count....
Not dots; only double-blind clinical trials.
But then for other conditions?
Testing for seizure prophylaxis.
Blarcamesine and The SOC.
Blarcamesine first in the UK? Or, Down Under?
Do a web search “sleep deprivation costs, frequencies.”
Negating details not presented.
Numbers now, or in years out?
Those 4-digit AVXL share-price projections, several years out, match the ones my spreadsheet calculations present. I make the same presumptions; that blarcamesine will be approved as an Alzheimer’s therapy, and that several million will then take the drug, at the projected $10/day expense.
Of course, the numbers may be off by 50% or more. Alzheimer’s is an un-treatable malady in the rest of the Western world. The European market should match the American. The numbers very reasonably could then be doubled.
But that will be only the Alzheimer’s chapter in the Anavex story. Once hundreds of thousands are taking blarcamesine it will be incidentally discovered that not only are their targeted pathologies being resolved by the drug, but they incidentally are far less subject to other diseases (such as viral infections such a COVID, colds, flues, etc.).
After a few years (Should be but a few months, but the FDA is, to use an inept phrase, is “always cautious.” Never again any thalidomides.) very high chance blarcamesine is allowed to be used as a generalized geriatric prophylactic. Take the stuff to prevent or delay the onset of a host of geriatric diseases and conditions.
At $10 a day, that’s an annual drug cost of $3650. If blarcamesine works as a late-adult generalized disease prophylactic, would that annual cost offset the eventual healthcare costs of the prevented diseases in old people? Almost surely.
Not included in any of these projections are the yet-to-be-confirmed efficacies of Anavex 3-71. Every bit of evidence shows that it is likely to eclipse blarcamesine in every regard, yielding even better and more diverse disease preventing and treatment outcomes. In the end (five years from now) Anavex 3-71 will likely supplant blarcamesine, yielding both greater treatment outcomes and revenue streams.
In over a half-decade I’ve accumulated my modest AVXL holding as a long-term investment, not a trading vehicle. Most likely I’ll never sell a share. The holding will remain in my estate, to the benefit of my family, church, and community benefactors. My wife and I, in our remaining years (free of geriatric dementias of any sort) will live very comfortably on Anavex dividends. I’m a biologist, can comprehend the unique cellular biochemistry of the Anavex molecules, and note cogently that they are both safe and efficacious. Not a shred of evidence in either murines (lab test rodents) or in any humans in any of the several trials that blarcamesine or Anavex 3-71 produce any clinical data indicating that they can’t or won’t be approved. I won’t go into them here, but I’ve previously laid out many of the potential problems with neuroactive drugs. The Anavex molecules have none of them.
I sleep well knowing that I must wait until the Parkinson’s disease dementia and Alzheimer’s trial results appear. The Anavex naysayers will strive to tell why, once again CEO Missling and the company’s drug have failed and it will not be approved. Same quibbling, whining chatter as now. But to no avail. I can wait until 2023 or 2024. Missling, blarcamesine, and Anavex will then be vindicated. All will be well; especially for the millions benefitting from blarcamesine treatments.
Any reasonable shareprice conjectures?
ALPPine share prices presently continue to slide sideways. I’m trying to estimate the potential value of my ALPP holding at the end of 2022. Any reasonable, conjectured share price ranges in a year? I bought a bunch just before the NASDAQ uplisting, anticipating the envisioned share price rise. Hasn’t yet happened. Thoughts? (Not going to sell my holding; will wait no matter what happens.)
What will parents and caregivers decide?
Well, I’m certain that parents and caregivers of women with Rett syndrome will see right through all of the positive things disclosed in the trial results. Instead of focusing on how blarcamesine has been clinically shown to significantly treat and relieve the symptoms of Rett syndrome in older, post-pediatric subjects, they’ve read the so important info here, showing that Anavex "adjusted things” during the trial, so their people with Rett shouldn’t take blarcamesine. The clinical results were really good. On the basis of just those life would be so much better for the women with Rett.
But, nope. Can’t or won’t be. Certain alleged “adjustments” during the clinical trial entirely negate, disqualify both the positive safety and efficacy outcomes. More than we incidental AVXL shareholders the parents of women with Rett know what their girls should be taking. They aren’t going to stand for any effective, safe drug that had some sorts of “adjustments” happen during the clinical trial. Not gonna have any of that, for sure.
Or....
Another Blarcamesine Success, in Humans
Anavex/blarcamesine naysayers really have to stretch to find facts that show that the drug is either unsafe or ineffective. Have we seen any of those failures laid out today? The clinical outcomes from the completed clinical trial in humans, with advanced cases of Rett syndrome, are all positive. Not a single datum (compared to placebo) was negative. All clinical outcomes are statistically significant.
https://www.anavex.com/_files/ugd/79bcf7_ca78f07355544ad794235b95a121f8d0.pdf
This continues the universally positive findings in every clinical study of blarcamesine; first in trans-genic (human-diseased) murines (lab rodents), now in a placebo-controlled Phase 3 clinical study in diseased humans. This will continue with the Parkinson's disease dementia and Alzheimer's trials. For blarcamesine, the FDA will have it.
Facts and experts of no consideration.
Blind? Nope. We see beyond the horizon.
Anavex MOA WORKS. PDD and Alzheimer's Next!
Murine Data Confirmed in Humans
Whadya know? The murine trials of blarcamesine successes against Rett were entirely predictive of the drug in humans with the disease.
Wanta now contend that this won't be the case in both Parkinson's disease dementia and Alzheimer's? Ha.
When I get a few more discretionary dollars, I'll be expanding my AVXL holding.
Not A "Purchase? How So?
Wasn’t A Whim Purchase
Eventual Discovery in Humans of Antiviral Efficacy
Ok, very likely the SARS-CoV-2 virus, by natural selection, will devolve to a persisting pathogen, in the manner of colds and flues. No evidence whatsoever that any of the current "vaccines" will be able to extinguish the virus from any human population.
So, in two or three years from now, when blarcamesine is the SOC (standard of care) therapy for at least three morbidities, Rett syndrome, Parkinson's disease dementia, and Alzheimer's, it may be inadvertently discovered that those taking the drug don't suffer from SARS-CoV-2 infections themselves, or even other common viruses such as those of influenza and common colds.
First, is there any chance for this to be the case? Well, if activation by blarcamesine of the sigma-1 receptor protein facilitates (as it does) a diversity of "downstream" cellular maintenance functions, restored, optimized autophagy within cells will facilitate the destruction or expulsion of virions, virus particles. If viruses can't get inside cells, they can't replicate. They are a pathogenic dead end; merely an extraneous packet of non-functioning genetic nucleotides (DNA or RNA).
As Dr. Missling's long-ago statement "like an iceberg" might indicate, when tangentially in reference to the potentials of the Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonists, I'm certain that Anavex insiders know far more about their drugs than they are presently telling. It's not at all expensive or difficult to infect various common lab test animals (murines, rats and mice; Ceanorhabitis elegans, a common lab roundworm used for genetics, aging, and pathogen research) and see how treatments with Anavex molecules affect various microbial infections.
Restoration of optimized cell functions by blarcamesine might well yield profound antimicrobial outcomes. Not just time, but the reduced incidences of viral infections in people taking blarcamesine will tell.
Of course, categorically that fits inside the blarcamesine prophylaxis thesis; that dosing with blarcamesine will prevent the onset of various diseases, such as the targeted CNS diseases, along with the debilities of normal advanced aging.
Right now, we're still in the early chapters of the eventually gigantic Anavex story book. It won't be just Rett syndrome....
Blarcamesine "Now" for Rett
Rett, only?
Shall we quibble over dosages, or efficacies?
Granted, Anavex 3-71 dosages in current human trials are orders of magnitude greater than in the therapeutically successful treatment of human Alzheimer's in lab rats.
But the more important matter is that the molecule, in such minute concentrations (micrograms, not milligrams) worked. It didn't just halt the progression of the cognition decline Alzheimer's, it reversed it. Moreover, this restored cognition was retained after the drug was no longer administered. The positive therapeutic outcome persisted after the drug was deleted.
Again, here's the text from the paper, with my typefacing:
Successful Anavex 3-71 Dosage Against Murine Alzheimer’s
In this study, of transgenic (Tg) rats with human Alzheimer’s genes (and disease), Anavex 3-71 (AF710B) was dosed at a rate of 10 µg/kg per day, orally administered. At that tiny dose Anavex 3-71 produced reversion of cognitive deficits of the disease --- a therapeutic success.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322142767_AF710B_an_M1sigma-1_receptor_agonist_with_long-lasting_disease-modifying_properties_in_a_transgenic_rat_model_of_Alzheimer's_disease
Here’s an excerpt:
After Blarcamesine, Anavex 3-71 Will Be Big(ger)
Understandably, the focus on Anavex Life Sciences Corp is centered on Anavex 2-73, blarcamesine; presently in three definitive clinical trials, for Rett syndrome, Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD), and Alzheimer's. The immediate future of Anavex depends on the clinical safety and efficacy of blarcamesine to treat at least one of these otherwise recalcitrant central nervous system (CNS) diseases. A large body of previous postings indicate the evidence why the drug is so very likely to exhibit favorable clinical outcomes.
But presently very little attention is being paid to Anavex's other new drug candidate, Anavex 3-71. I'm not going to re-post any of them, but feel free to do a postings search on Anavex 3-71. Simply, it has an even greater therapeutic potential than blarcamesine. It works therapeutically in doses fractional to those of blarcamesine; with phenomenal therapeutic outcomes against a wider diversity of CNS and other disease categories.
With Rett syndrome results soon to appear for blarcamesine, it will be the headline drug from Anavex; then even more so with the PDD results. Finally, sometime in 2024 will be the big Alzheimer's results.
But watch. waiting actively in the wings is Anavex 3-71, waiting to take the CNS (and perhaps COVID-19) treatment stage, when that act opens next year. Anavex 3-71 may end up being Anavex's biggest drug and revenue generator. Time (and clinical results) will tell. The preclinical data from murines (lab rodents), like those previously from blarcamesine, are extremely favorable; against a much wider body of diseases; particularly by muscarinic receptor activation.
As a retail (private individual) holder of a moderate AVXL position (several thousand shares), I've perceived from my Anavex investment start, about five or six years ago, that this investment would take a lengthy period to pay off. On paper (well, on my spreadsheet) I have a very nice value appreciation of my AVXL position. But I've never sold a share (have taken no profits), and don't intend to for many years. Knowing to a reasonable degree the biochemical intricacies of the biochemistry of the Anavex molecules, I'm satisfied to patiently wait for Anavex to gain FDA approval to sell one of their drugs. In 2023, my spreadsheet cells indicating AVXL share prices will have to add another digit or two. In the Total Value cells (share price x number of shares), at least two digits will have to be added there, too.
A worthwhile wait.