alive and kicking
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This partnership in Japan will add 34m to our earning reports so things are looking good.
Under the terms of the collaboration and license agreement, ImmunoGen will receive a one-time, upfront payment and an additional payment upon conversion of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) accelerated approval of ELAHERE in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC) to full approval.
Any buyout premium is reduced a bit though.
There is so little detail so kind of hard to judge the deal terms IMO
Today's news ought to be good news, but the Street has apparently taken it the other way. The $34 million is viewed as too small, without recognizing that more will be coming with FDA approval of the Mirasol data, probably early next year. Of course, then come the royalties on sales.
I presume that IMGN is trading down because some investors wanted a buyout rather than a new partnership deal.
Shinogi's drug Ensitrelvir (Xocova) won't be getting approval in the US, at least not for a long time. The other drug is in phase 3 but no data is around yet and didn't meet primary endpoints in their 2021 phase 2 which had 1/3 of high risk patients yet you assume that will be approved next year.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/atea-and-roche-s-covid-19-antiviral-flunks-phase-2-prompting-switch-will-delay-pivotal-data
I see you are another poster who has only made a small number of posts, all on the ENTA board. Nothing suspicious about that. /s
Re: AMGN-HZNP merger
The FTC has suspended its litigation against the merger and is apparently pursuing a settlement with AMGN:
congrats on EXEL - it certainly has been a good stock to own overall (and this year too). Seems like you have done well in oncology.
I'm out of oncology for the most part except through some large pharmas (largest is GSK which has been a laggard in oncology although they do now have a promising IO portfolio IMO in light of the recent Roche data)
That is why I mentioned it because the annual flu vaccine is still required. It is not clear if the two are being treated differently because the disease risk is different, or if it is because the vaccine risk is different.
Sure seems like a practice changing study, but I am not sure how large a market there is (this is the subtype of pancreatic CA w a good prognosis). I think this is what Steve Jobs passed from
The BA.2.86 immune escape, with >35 mutations and amino acid changes compared w/ XBB.1.5 (the "new" booster target, still not available), will be problematic and epitomizes why a variant-chasing strategy doesn't work.
We need a variant-proof vaccine, and many candidates exist.”
They are private MD groups on Facebook with thousands of members. I did not survey anyone myself....All I know is the discuss in these groups is that it does not last as long as promised and I think the market would agree with that based on the stock price and their earnings.
All I can pass along is the information that I have seen from some very large private online physician groups where the consensus is that it does not last nearly as long as promised in a real world setting.
My point is patients are not able and/or willing to pay a high premium for Daxi.
You seem to be switching the topic as it was about duration of effect. Are you saying RVNC is pricing Daxxify at double the price of Botox?
What about the flu vaccine at Michigan? You suggested the requirements for the Covid vaccine was being treated differently than those for influenza vaccines, Berkeley treats them the same.
Do you know that universities and their hospitals across America are not requiring any COVID vaccine or boosters for their employees, but they do continue to require yearly flu vaccines?
People are simply not going to pay a premium for something that lasts 3-4 weeks longer.
I am left-handed so always get shots in my right arm. I didn’t realize I was being smart!😂
marthambles,
Thanks for the link. I really liked these quotes and it bodes well for RVNC.
Peter McAllister, MD: In my opinion, Daxxify should be a first line therapy in any patient with CD, but it is particularly useful in patients who have had an inadequate response to prior neurotoxins, either because of lack of full efficacy, short duration of effect or tolerability issues.
What questions will we continue to answer over the coming years about daxibotulinumtoxinA’s use in the field?
Atul Patel, MD, MHSA: I think there will be a lot of questions on how Daxxify works in each patient, and in different groups of patients. We will be able to find out if there will be opportunities to treat the patient at different intervals and improve their response to treatment compared to current treatments.
Peter McAllister, MD: With increasing clinical use, we will get a better idea of the optimal dose of Daxxify for CD, and how long its duration is (ie time to retreatment) in the real world. We will also look at other therapeutic indications beyond CD.
COVID BA.2.86 strain is worrying some experts:
Your risk management policy is gambling, comparatively. Your second buy should ALWAYS be higher price than your first, third higher than second, ect. says Livermore.
The idea that if you liked it and 30, you should LOVE it at 17 is complete bullshit because you don't know what you don't know. You could double down blindly at 17 based on your belief that nothing fundamental has changed and open yourself up to additional risk, or alternatively, you could let the stock bottom and wait until it begins to reverse course and show signs of accumulation.
but trading patterns can make accumulation pretty easy to identify. When you do, that's when you buy. But you wouldn't know anything about that, would you?
I'm bored with this thread and don't care what you do but I'm sure you'll come back to me regardless.
Hahaha. You couldn't hold Livermore's jockstrap, you asshole.
Livermore, who is the author of How to Trade in Stocks (1940), was one of the greatest traders of all time. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today's dollars roughly equates to $1.5 billion.
Easy come, easy go, but he was a unique, ingenious, rare talent
I don't care about the specifics Vin, and I have nothing personally against you.
You just seem naive to what is common knowledge to most seasoned investors. Continually averaging down is a good way to send yourself rocketing to the poor house. Ever heard of Jesse Livermore? Many famous traders have echoed his sentiments.
His theory is you never average down, you always go with the momentum (up or down). As for my swings in sentiment, my strength is to never be married to any opinion, even my own, in the face of contradictory data. I hope you do well Vin, but disagree strongly with your trading philosophy. Although I have done it in the past and will do it again, doing so more times than not may represent a failed thesis that you should not double down on. May or may not be the case here, I can be long the stock and yet still short based on timing and momentum
I have warned against averaging losses. That is a most common practice. Great numbers of people will buy a stock, let us say at 50, and later if they can buy it at 47 they are seized with the urge to average down by buying another hundred shares, making a price of 48.5 on all. Having bought at 50 and being concerned over a three-point loss on a hundred shares, what rhyme or reason is there in adding another hundred shares and having the worry double when the price hits 44? At that point there would be a $600 loss on the first hundred shares and a $300 loss on the second hundred shares. If one is to apply such an unsound principle, he should keep on averaging by buying two hundred shares at 44, then four hundred at 41, eight hundred at 38, sixteen hundred at 35, thirty-two hundred at 32, sixty-four hundred at 29 and so on.
How many speculators could stand such pressure? So, at the risk of repetition and preaching, let me urge you to avoid averaging down… Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day. Risk it on something more attractive than an obviously losing deal.
Lots of new posts….people trying to take my title as the “FUDster” :)
From my experience, when even some of the most ardent bulls of a stock start to get agitated at each other, the bottom is likely nigh.
Now i understand that this is a different situation with RVNC in that they do not have a therapeutic division yet. But that is my question - it seems to me that they would have prepared for the CD approval. What are your thoughts? Here are some of my "guesses".
1. They were being prudent with their cash. Didn't want to pay a salesforce and leadership until they were sure that they got approval.
2. They are going to partner with a sales force that already calls on neurology / movement disorders.
3. They are going to go with a company that contracts salesforces. There were a couple big ones.
4. Some other reason...
Vin, you've been buying all the way down and said as much. Continually averaging down is not a sound strategy for making money. This baby is in free fall, just admit to yourself where we are. I doubt we have seen the market lows yet, if I am wrong I will own this post
I don't pretend to know where the stock is going in the short run. The macro market setup is horrible. Most daily movement is driven by algos and degen short-focused fund managers trying to justify their one and twenty fee this quarter. RVNC could go back to $10 in the short term I honestly would not be surprised now given the trends. I hope it doesn't but if it does that's an opportunity.
Agree. I wasn’t meaning it’s a $3 stock this year or next but at some point unless a deal is struck. On the positive side there is also the patent litigation with PFE that could yield positive results as well.
I read it and you are wrong. They have the $200 million cash and they aren’t paying anything out of their pockets. It is coming out of future revenues. It is an accounting mechanism. Are you really saying they got the money but can’t use it for anything? That makes no sense.
if ENTA continues to burn cash and the assigned value is based on the cash, it only makes sense to me that as the on hand cash goes lower, the stock price does as well.
Not net cash with the $200MM being a debt on the balance sheet. Quite a bit to go to get to net cash.
The market is putting a significant value on pipeline. The bet is whether it should be putting a bigger value on it or not. I am getting close to saying it should be (but I thought that I would be a buyer at 18, and I'm glad that I held off).
ENTA market value is already below cash and you are predicting it will drop 10x below cash. When? Are you saying the pipeline has zero value?
Anyone have an educated guess as to the likelihood of a partner for 235 or 938? If low, what in the pipeline would keep this from being a $1-$3 stock?
On page 8 of the same 10-Q document, there’s a heading that says, “amounts in thousands, except per share data.” This header applies to all of the notes to the financial statements that follow, so the “$200,000” in the excerpt I posted means $200 million.
SGEN’s Tukysa shows statsig-superior PFS as addend to Kadcyla in second-line HER2+ breast cancer phase-3 trial:..... No hazard ratio is reported—details to come at an unspecified medical conference. OS data (a secondary endpoint) are not yet mature.
pursuant to which the Company was paid a $200,000 cash purchase price in exchange for 54.5% of future quarterly royalty payments on net sales of MAVYRET/MAVIRET, after June 30, 2023, through June 30, 2032, subject to a cap on aggregate payments equal to 1.42 times the purchase price.
Vinman, RVNC is going up, against a very experienced, very professional, established salesforce. They have faced competitors before and fared very well.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see RVNC in the $10-$12 range again. To the extent that its salesforce is able to deliver product to end customers and the end customers see the significant advantages that due diligence does, substantial price gains above the 30s are definitely possible.
At this time, there’s still uncertainty.
My guess is that Revance has gone through the transition from being an emerging biotech with a price based upon wishes dreams, and High Hopes to being an established biotech, whose price is based upon actual earnings and ROI.
The CD stream will not begin before next year. And with what the market has learned about the aesthetic stream, that’s going to be a very slow build up.
RVNC
It's a grind for long term holders too, since you are missing returns over 5% in T-bills. When short term rates were close to zero it was a different matter.
One other point to repeat is that CD rollout doesn't start until next year. I think that is part of the problem - people expected sales to start ramping.
Yes I was off on timing visa vie the lawsuit and the reviral purchase although it’s possible PFE was aware in advance of the filing that there was an IP issue surrounding paxlovid