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Friday, August 18, 2023 1:26:20 PM
I don't care about the specifics Vin, and I have nothing personally against you.
The same for me. I have nothing against you personally.
You just seem naive to what is common knowledge to most seasoned investors. Continually averaging down is a good way to send yourself rocketing to the poor house. Ever heard of Jesse Livermore? Many famous traders have echoed his sentiments.
Now I see your mistake. You are a trader who is playing the market as one would do in a casino. I liken it to someone watching a roulette wheel and noticing they see red coming up a lot so start betting on red because it is hot.
His theory is you never average down, you always go with the momentum (up or down). As for my swings in sentiment, my strength is to never be married to any opinion, even my own, in the face of contradictory data. I hope you do well Vin, but disagree strongly with your trading philosophy. Although I have done it in the past and will do it again, doing so more times than not may represent a failed thesis that you should not double down on. May or may not be the case here, I can be long the stock and yet still short based on timing and momentum
Once again you are making a mistake. I am not a trader but rather an investor. I do sell occasionally but seldom in the same year I bought, well, unless there is a change in the reason I initially bought the stock. Many of my sells came because I had no choice as the company was bought out at a nice profit for me. I await that same happy profitable outcome with SGEN.
I have warned against averaging losses. That is a most common practice. Great numbers of people will buy a stock, let us say at 50, and later if they can buy it at 47 they are seized with the urge to average down by buying another hundred shares, making a price of 48.5 on all. Having bought at 50 and being concerned over a three-point loss on a hundred shares, what rhyme or reason is there in adding another hundred shares and having the worry double when the price hits 44? At that point there would be a $600 loss on the first hundred shares and a $300 loss on the second hundred shares. If one is to apply such an unsound principle, he should keep on averaging by buying two hundred shares at 44, then four hundred at 41, eight hundred at 38, sixteen hundred at 35, thirty-two hundred at 32, sixty-four hundred at 29 and so on.
Your example has little to no value as it doesn't factor in the percentage increase from each subsequent purchase, it doesn't examine the underlying reasons for the drop nor explain the rationale the person uses for believing the market is wrong. nor the time line for the new buys. It is a general example when the correct or perhaps valid example requires specifics.
How many speculators could stand such pressure? So, at the risk of repetition and preaching, let me urge you to avoid averaging down… Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day. Risk it on something more attractive than an obviously losing deal.
I don't consider myself a speculator and I don't feel pressure. Would I like all my investments to suddenly jump? Absolutely! I am placing good money into companies I feel are a good risk at a discount price. I don't understand traders who are always in a state of anxiety each hour, or day or week.
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