M&A business
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Got it. Thanks for the detailled Explanation.
You could be right on all Points as the possibility I outlined has to many unpredictable if and whens.
For me my paper was nothing more than a Memo of what is or could be possible but for this it always takes 2 for a Tango.
There would be other possibilities as well but there is no use going into Detail.
I was never part of a Team that did restructuring but I was part of a Team who then designed derivates after the restructuring and believe me I have seen worse situations than presently AAPT Shows.
The case here is rather simple: If they want to a have a Change, they must act from the inside because nobody will act from the outside.
One word: The tax liability: I cannot see to have in the books of a public Company a tax liability that could be linked with the Management or the board. If this would ever have been the case with a Company I would not be Aware of it, but then you talk USA I talk Europe. The question is then left: Why the tax liability. If a Company never has been profitable why a tax liability? If the Management draws a salary, the tax liabilty becomes a private item and cannot be booked with the Company. Unless you can give more light here on this subject.
There are enough court papers that Show no K.B. as payee. It is not on us to prove anything it is on Alydir to come up with evidence. If the other way around, to what would it lead?
Well we had this subject already.
Show us 1 evidence that this K.B. was found guilty and had to pay anything. Just a simple paper from the court.
You understand you cannot issue a Statement about a Person being judged guilty without any prove.
These 3 parties had to pay for.
At the end there were three who were forced to pay: 1) the hedge fund major shareholder who was guilty of stock manipulation, pumping on the way up, shorting on the way down, while running Access Healthnet as Chairman and CEO, forcing out the founders, the officers and directors, naming his own directors, and who copped to that stock plea and was bailed out by his insurer; 2) the auditing firm where in the middle of an annual audit, the auditing partner left his firm in return for a $500,000 bonus and joined Access Healthnet as their Executive VP and CFO. The auditing firm's insurer paid their judgment, the largest payment in the case, and the newly minted Executive VP and CFO lost his CPA license when his junior partner at the CPA firm became whistle blower, and 3) the only person who went to jail was an investment manager from Beverly Hills, CA who raised money for Access Healthnet under the formula of one for me and one for them, two for me and one for them. This fellow's case made headlines for a couple of weeks because his scheme involved many companies and was ingenious. He would hire assistants that were sick with AIDS, which was fatal in those days. Cases move slowly and with people who were known to be dying of AIDS as his insurance plan, there was nobody that could testify against this fellow. He copped a plea and spent 4 years in the big house.
That the litigation was settled we know but Show us that this Mr. K.B. had to pay anything. I am keen to see it.
Here from a post from S some weeks ago.
This particular thread has become ridiculous. First of all the SEC never got involved in that Access Healthnet case so how bad could it have really been? It was lawyers and their strike suits lead by the king of strike suits, Willy Lerach, who later went to jail himself. At the end there were three who were forced to pay: 1) the hedge fund major shareholder who was guilty of stock manipulation, pumping on the way up, shorting on the way down, while running Access Healthnet as Chairman and CEO, forcing out the founders, the officers and directors, naming his own directors, and who copped to that stock plea and was bailed out by his insurer; 2) the auditing firm where in the middle of an annual audit, the auditing partner left his firm in return for a $500,000 bonus and joined Access Healthnet as their Executive VP and CFO. The auditing firm's insurer paid their judgment, the largest payment in the case, and the newly minted Executive VP and CFO lost his CPA license when his junior partner at the CPA firm became whistle blower, and 3) the only person who went to jail was an investment manager from Beverly Hills, CA who raised money for Access Healthnet under the formula of one for me and one for them, two for me and one for them. This fellow's case made headlines for a couple of weeks because his scheme involved many companies and was ingenious. He would hire assistants that were sick with AIDS, which was fatal in those days. Cases move slowly and with people who were known to be dying of AIDS as his insurance plan, there was nobody that could testify against this fellow. He copped a plea and spent 4 years in the big house.
I can find nowhere, and my partner and I looked closely, pulled records etc. where that Mr. Berman was held accountable for anything. My partner believes that Mr. Berman was not at the firm when the bad stuff happened, having been fired with the other officers and directors. It also appears that the Mr. Garber mentioned was not held accountable either. There were other involved in the conspiracy but that is for a later time. Those other people involved will make for human nature stories.
Be careful what you read on an Internet board.
Thanks godPeople can distinguish between fair and not fair and even Hotstock had to eliminate 800 SCAMS posted within 3 days initiated by some and they even apologized for it.
No you are not the author but you delivered part of the text. At least we were able to read this text here on this board posted by you. Word by word.
It is undeniable that the DECN story started on December 4th 2012 when they received the Clearance letter from the FDA. So, everybody following the story had the entry point. DECN had it’s volatility this is for sure with all the back and forth swings from the court, but then which stock is immune from volatility. Being now in December 2014, it is then clear, that DECN within this period has beaten all major indexes. If this is not a reference than what is a reference? If excuses are brought up about an entry point then the same excuse can be taken for every stock. But with a story stock the entry point is fixed from the day on when the story emerged and with DECN it was December 4th 2012. Being in denial to facts – like the following chart shows – is then being in denial of the overall stock-market and its performance. But then, having missed the entry Point when the Invitation went out based on the FDA Signal, should not lead to bad mouthing the stock .
You are right - more orderly than the last time and I prefer it that way. But then, it could Change if ...............
Could agree with you totally, however I assume (and could be wrong here) DECN has not debts rather a sizeable cash Position at Hand. . They refinanced themeselves through short-term CV notes and this was the supply in the market. For this reason I guess, the O/S could be around 42 Mio shs.
But as I said, I could be wrong.
Now, if J&J would pay them to go away and attach a figure of $ 300 Mio estimated revenues within 3 years the shareholder certainly would not suffer. Even if they would attach a value of 5 % Revenue (approx. $ 150 Mio) it would not be a bad deal.
But all is speculation.
There are various possibilities.
1.) Heavy payment in favour of DECN and DECN will leave the Genstrip market
2.) Heavy payment in favour of DECN and DECN will leave the Genstrip market and come with a new product
3.) Heavy payment in favour of DECN and DECN will remain in the market for Genstrips under their Label but then as well under private Label.
Whatever outcome: The shareholder will Profit in a big way.
The first would mean: Being paid to go away. As a rule this would cover an estimate of what DECN could grab from the Lifescan market within 3 years. 5 % or 10 % you Name it, but it is big Money as well.
What however could as well roll the market, if they come out and are backed by one of those multi-Billion litigations Funds. If so, then it would become very very expensive for DECN. Let's see.
While I cannot read the mind from S, it could have 2 meanings.
It is the end of the case: Money paid and the beginning of DECN cash rich and freed from the handcuffs to negotiate all Kind of deals or as has happened before: DECN will be paid to go away from the Genstrip Business and based on cases I have seen, those are mostly substantial amounts.
In such a case, I would guess no shareholder of DECN would complain. Which way I turn it: There is a lot of Money on the table.
What follows is a table listing the monetary awards that companies have received because they were either victorious in an IP infringement lawsuit, or they negotiated deal in the absense/presence of a infringement lawsuit, or related technology litigation such as antitrust. The following monetary awards are culled from media reports of such victories/successes, and may have been reversed/reduced in later appeals, though we are constantly updating our records to include more awards, and more history on each award.
http://www.bustpatents.com/awards.html
A power retail in the work.
Walgreens: 8217 Locations
Duane Reade Inc. belongs to the Walgreen Company and therefore have Access to all their logistic and Network
Drugstore Com, belongs as well to the Walgreen Company but what comes with it is Rite Aid as Drugstore Com has an agreement with them through the RiteAid.com website and the Rite Aid online store. RiteAid alone has 4623 Stores and Revenues of 25 Billion.
Adding all this together: Genstrip is on its way to cover the USA.
Let's try to work out a target - base.
To put a possible value on DECN the best is going forward step by step.
1.) The estimated size according to Global Data: the entire monitoring market will reach $12.2 billion by the year 2017. As a point of reference, in 2010, the test strips themselves accounted for close to 90% of the total market value. Therefore, over $11 billion will be up for grabs in 2017 on the sale of test strips alone.
2.) According to a report compiled by industry and Roche analysts; Roche controls 29.1% of the blood glucose market, Lifescan 26.5% (Lifescan is owned by Johnson and Johnson, JNJ), Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY) 14.6%, Abbott (NYSE:ABT) 14.6%, and all others 15.2%. In order for one of these companies to gain momentum in developing countries it is necessary for them to drive down price points and to offer a more affordable option.
3.) Which way will DECN take to penetrate the market? This is up to the management of course, but besides selling directly through the “growing” online channels, the will sell through the know Retailers and they as well will negotiate with interested parties that will sell then under a private label brand.
Taking the 2017 market size of 11 billion and the 26.5 % market share from Lifescan we are talking about a direct potential of 3 Billion under control of Lifescan (J&J) It is obvious that DECN would target those clientele. But the question is: What is probable and what is possible. As one wrote in an UK Forum, 10 % for Lifescans market share would be a non-brainer and I give credibility to this voice as it must be an Ex Janssen guy who understands the market mechanism.
So if we leave the 10 % as given we talk about 300 Mio Revenue but for sure to buck would not stop here as DECN could as well expand into other territories and as well offer – besides strips – something else. We should not forget, that DECN if blessed with funds from the J&J case would be in a position to act debt free and therefore create enough velocity to expand rather rapidly.
But all this kind of speculation has attached so many if’s and when’s that it would be wise to concentrate on the obvious one, the 10 % or the 300 Mio Revenue Base. If reached – and markets have a tendency to visualise certain targets long before actually reached, DECN could fetch a market Cap of $ 450 Mio (1.5 times sales or 15 times net profits if I keep 10 % for this item)
Then we have to come back to the O/S question. If and when DECN can count the money from J&J then it is clear the dilution party is over. No need for further issuing shares as they could refinance themselves easily and even start a buy-back program.
So based on my model: DECN with 60 Mio O/S once everything is over and 450 Mio capitalisation would be equal to $ 7.50 per share.
If and when DECN has enough cash in their Treasury to finance their pipeline, they could use part of the surplus to repurchase shares (like Apple and others are doing because there is no better use for their surpluses) This of course would then throw the mentioned stock price target over board. The question is: What does DECN want in 3 years. I would say, the management is not that young anymore to stay on board for xx years and this of course could then mean, that a well driven and cash rich DECN could become a very attractive bright for some.
Having said all this: From my point-of-view, DECN offers (once the J&J case is out of the way once and forever) a very very substantial upside. Whatever will be paid into the Treasury will be considered Cash per share. Figures are ranging between $ 12.5 Mio but then up to $ 120 Mio if all is figured in. My take is, that we are going to end up with at least $ 1.—in Cash and from there on the party will begin and the market will start to figure in the possible revenue base within 3 years.
For every market student going back 50 years the saying goes: Gee why wasn’t I around when this stock was cheap. Well I will tell you, some would not have bought it because at that time nothing was perfect and to many if’s and when’s. And so it happens every day: We see something and despite we are in a position to make a cross-analysis and can see the potential even if we attach a 90 % discount to the market potential, we quarrel about this and about that and then walk away. But this is not the stock market. A cheap stock presents something the majority cannot see or doesn’t want to see and from my point of view, it is good so otherwise everything would be priced at perfection and then nothing is left on the upside.
Conclusion: It is obsolete to dream of targets but it is right to figure out a high probability of price within the next 3 years and $ 7.50 is certainly not that speculative then. Based on Fridays close this still would present a ratio of more than 1000 %.
And just to see, what is possible, see this list of former small Caps who made it. Within 2 - 3 years, DECN will be part of Russell as well
True - what you say. This model is just based on normal market conditions.
Based on my Computer the cross will take place in about 2 weeks.
But the good Thing is we clearly left the 40 weeks MA behind or better said, will have if we Close today above the 0.32 Level.
The ship slowly is leaving the port.
This are the Facts.
End of December 2012 DECN got the FDA clearance letter. The Performance of DECN since then, versus the S&P and versus the various sectors speaks very loud. Outperformance versus every Index and this despite the fact, that DECN after this positive ruling from the FDA was actually blocked by J&J due to the patent infringment case. During the last 2 years, there were up's and down's due to the various rulings. However, after the positive rulings from USTPO in favour of DECN the Sentiment slowly Looks Forward the day, when this chapter will closed once and forever and DECN will write history.
Despite this struggle : DECN and this cannot benied, outperformed during this cycle by far. For my part: Noting to complain and I would say, nobody would have to justify himself with this Performance if he would have bought DECN then in the expectation for a positve outcome. And as Forbes wrote in one of their articles, if DECN wins the Cup, it could be very rewarding for DECN shareholders. So the best is yet to come.
I did not say I know it I said, "MY guess IS" and I think this is rather a difference.
But knowing how litigation financing works I am pretty sure, I won't be far off, once the financials are out.
When an Analyst for a bank or brokerage firm issues as opinion, it is an opinion a so-called guidance based on estimates. Should this then be wrong in your opinion?
Well, as a matter of fact it is obvious. You calculate the traded volume for a period of 12 months and then you will have to come to the conclusion that there was or must have been a Change in the O/S.
And based on my knowledge such cases - litigation cases - are financed through convertible notes again for very obvious reasons. And then everybody knows, that lawyers are not working for free, that you cannot acquire a Company for free and so on, financing must have taken place.
KB does not like debts this is clear so the road open is to get the refinancing the way I described. In the USA and UK there are plenty of litigation funds and all is done that way so DECN would certainly not be an isolated case.
Let's speculate on this one.
DECN will have Zero-Debt and the reason is, that I expect the O/S being around 40 - 45 Mio Dollars. As of the last 10 Q we had approx. 35 Mio O/S.
The supply in the market came certainly from debt-financing, means conversion of loans into equity. This explains the Performance of the stock of course.
Let's say it would be 45 Mio O/S this would mean approx. 10 Mio shs issued through conversion notes. Taking an average Price of $0.40 per share this would mean $ 4 Mio.
Money is needed for the court-case
Money is needed for covering GA costs
Money is needed for Commercials and
Money is needed to pay for the acquisition of Sashta and
Money is needed for production of the Strips.
All in all I would guess, clean balance-sheet and plenty of Cash.
A Cash rich Company turning the Strip market upside down.
The Parameters are given I would guess: (Taken from the Report S wrote this morning)
6. I postulate that DECN has found one of these old unresolved cases and intends to turn the tables on J&J by acquiring the technology from a very upset inventor, and dropping the stink bomb on J&J because that will make it all about money and J&J understands money. I do not know if this is what DECN has in mind, for all I know DECN wants a cash settlement more than J&J does. But by spurning J&J's offer of mediation and offering something reasonable in return, something J&J would never accept until the last possible moment, and maybe not even then, DECN has made themselves relevant and at this juncture gained the upper hand.
Patent infringement defendant turning the tables and becoming patent infringement plaintiff with added allegations in an already scary anti-trust case is as powerful a move as there is. And in my opinion (and hope) DECN has done something like this and we are days or a few short weeks from finding out. My partner pegged DECN's current case at about $50-$75 million and then triple damages. If they use this turn the tables ploy, which by the way my partner says has never failed, something brilliantly conceived from the past, long before the advent of patent trolls, my partner believes this case could turn into one for the ages --- built on a foundation of J&J arrogance and hubris. Remember, evil always gets way ahead early, but good catches up and wins in the end. Bold is great, epic is better.
It's refreshing to read such a constructive and professional comment/opinion, because it gives every reader the possibility to make his own picture in this jungle of legal Options.
Such contributions are helping making a forum attractive.
What roads are open for AAPT.
Debt restructuring is a process that allows a private or public company, facing cash flow problems and financial distress, to reduce and renegotiate this delinquent debts in order to improve or restore liquidity and rehabilitate so that it can continue its operations.
In Europe but now as well in the USA, out-of court restructurings, also known as workouts, are increasingly becoming a global reality.
In the case of AAPT what would this mean:
AAPT has total liabilities of $ 5.8 Mio as of September 2013. Based on my experience and based on cases I have seen here and over the Atlantic, there would be a good chance to get this debt of the balance sheet with a payment of 20 % or in $’s 1.2 Mio.
The reason for this is rather simple: Better getting 20 % than nothing and AAPT being re-financed without reducing and renegotiate the debts with be so dilutive that a survival could not be guaranteed.
To start new, the debt equity ratio has to change, means those doing the financing and cleaning out the balance sheet would present on the liability side a position of 1.2 Mio which at a certain point could be converted into equity.
The accumulated deficit of course would stay in the balance sheet as if and when AAPT should become profitable, this amount would roughly present a tax-discount of 25 % of the total amount or $ 7.25 Mio. In short: For years to come, AAPT would not have to pay any taxes.
Having said that, what would then be needed to get the company back on track.
1.) An agreement on debt reducing or eliminating the debt versus payment of $ 1.2 Mio
2.) Infusion of capital for a new production line
3.) Infusion of capital for raw-material
4.) Infusion of capital for marketing
5.) Infusion of capital to cover Administration Costs for at least 2 years based on new business plan
6.) Implementation of a watch-dog that observes and guarantees strict discipline on the observance of the budget.
As a matter of fact it would be like creating a new company. So the question is then: Why taking all this trouble if one could start from the bottom new?
Attractive certainly is:
a) The name All American Brand – has some sex-appeals to producers from outside the USA.
b) The listed body (Value $ 350.000) The new ones would not have to go this process new
c) Certainly existing links to top retailers that could be re-activated
d) A tested product line but not well executed due to short of funds
e) A very attractive tax-loss carry-forward amount of roughly $ 7.25 Mio (25 % of 29 Mio)
People tend to forget, that infusion of money is not a social work it is all business. There are 3points to watch as signals, that a company could be attractive to be taken out.
1. A stock trading with a deep discount versus the book value
2. A company is cash-rich and has significant growth potential or a low debt/equity ratio
3. The company has incurred since inception continuous operating losses and has a tax-loss carry forward that makes it an attractive takeover candidate (THIS CERTAINLY FITS WITH APPT)
4. The purchaser (investor) may be seeking to offset the operating loss of the target company against its own profits, thereby achieving considerable tax savings. (THIS CERTAINLY FITS WITH AAPT)
I could add many more points to this list, however it would go too far.
Now it goes without saying that those who would go through this kind of process would actually get everything for free if one takes the tax benefits into consideration and to this they would even get equity if and when they would convert their infusion from debt into equity.
As a matter of fact, the present management would only have to negotiate with the right people, signalling that they would go this road and I would say there are plenty of addresses in the USA specialised in restructuring companies without going through Chapter 11 and then bring in the people for pre-packaged financing. Where a will there is a way. IMHO
I am happy with the 24.46 % rise today.
Outstanding Performance from DECN and the volume nothing to complain about 602.000 Shares.
From a statistic Point of view: DECN with a plus of 24.46 % is among the best performing stocks.
Large selloff?
You mean the 25.000 T-Trade. This is not a trade at the Close a T - Trade is the summary of odd-lot trades for one Client at a certain Price reported after the closing. So instead of reporting 20 reporting trades during the session the broker forms 1 trade with the average of $ 0.30
I thought I gonna share this Email with you I received today.
The one writing this is not only a lawyer but he runs as well a well known fund out of UK investing in the sectors DECN is in.
Dear XXXXXXX
I hope this email finds you well. I have read with much interest today's announcement by DECN concerning its end-game strategy with respect to its litigation success against J&J. As you know, I have been following this situation for a considerable time and have significant investments in both research and capital. Today's release reinforces my confidence that DECN will prevail in a large way both in its settlement results with J&J and, more importantly going forward, in penetrating this huge market as an industry leader, all of which obviously bode well for the stock prices. J&J may have presumed that they were the ones who could play hardball merely due to their size and their perceived but illusory view that DECN would jump at a quick, inexpensive mediated settlement. DECN, however, is managing this process very astutely. Mr. Berman knows that he holds the cards in light of the court's favorable rulings and potential treble damages, and has not shown any weakness in attempting to maximize the monetary value they carry on behalf of DECN's shareholders rather than acting like a desperate company willing to jump at J&J's initial overtures. As a result, the sky is the limit. I look forward to a very lucrative settlement and DECN using that capital in propelling revenues online as well as through traditional retail channels in 2015 and beyond.
Best regards,
XXXXXXXX
New to this Board - DD Must read.
All Points you bring up here, have been debated ad nauseam
Proper DD confirms: DECN selected a new Auditor after the old audit-Firm got into some Problems and was acquired. (DECN informed about this with a 8 K filing) Everybody familiar with the rules knows, that a new auditor will request from the old Auditor all papers, which takes time and then will do again a proper Re-Audit as not to rely on the old one. This takes time and the SEC understands such Kind of delays.
The the other Point of the hold Status with the NSS has nothing to do with DECN, this is the duty of the Registered Agent to inform the NSS about a Change of address or in case a new RA took over. Nothing, absolutly nothing to do with DECN.
Exactly first the 50 days then the 200 days but the 1.40 we gonna see in 2015.
There are various catalysts: Of importance, besides ending the causa with J&J is as well DECN to be back en-current with their filings.
Knowing how much will go into the Treasury, DECN being free to execute their Business and en current with the filings and the stock will have a very sunny period ahead.
My comment on today's press-release:
Sounds very good . I just hope that behind all the strategizing and related posturing, Mr. Berman balances the importance of the actual business opportunities with the focus on maximizing the "return" on the litigation efforts. In other words, enter into a favorable settlement (rather than dragging it out trying to squeeze every red cent) and get onto revenue growth, retail channels, etc. which will propel the stock much more than protracted settlement talks while competitors penetrate the market. He appears a smart enough guy to strike while the irons are hot.
Avec your pardon? Although I agree with you on 99 % of your comments - VRNG cannot be compared with DECN. VRNG is a basket of patents - tried to Play the game and got hurt. They were dancing on too many parties.
I shorted this Company when they got after Google and Aol. This was the day when I said: The Profile per se is good but then too many cases are bad. And it was bad.