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Have at it then, my Brother. Kindly show us all the "way".
Leave him be, billytbone. Leave him be.
You've done an absolutely excellent job at pointing out the many dangers of "investing" in this poisonous trade. If those efforts fall on deaf ears ... then let these 'chumps' who are slowly assembling here have at it.
Best regards to you, nonetheless.
Really? Then watch the bid/ask spread on this little piece of so-called "fun".
The market-makers have constructed a "Roach Motel" for unsuspecting peeps.
They can certainly ENTER ... but they won't EVER be able to LEAVE.
Some "fun", eh? But hey ... GLTY.
Because they don't understand the workings of the Bankruptcy Court and the laws that it brings to bear on companies that don't meet their obligations on a timely basis.
Common is going to get "wiped" here ... just as soon as the Plan of Reorganization is filed with the court. On that day, the price of this stock will plunge to no-bid; and all that are then holding it will have nothing.
Something would see to be "amiss" here:
In its last 10Q, for the period ended August 31, 2014, Hipcricket reported total assets of $22.085 Million against total liabilities of just $18.423 Million. That would clearly mean that it was solvent ... as of that particular date.
See, at Page 1: http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=64056149
Equally clear is the fact that "solvent" companies cannot seek the protections of the Bankruptcy Court.
So then ... one is left to wonder: what exactly has transpired between August 31, 2014 and now, such that the company can suddenly avail itself of bankruptcy protections?
And here are the answers:
"While revenue for Hipcricket, which says it has been involved in more than 400,000 marketing campaigns since 2004, has been growing, the company’s respective net losses from operations in fiscal 2014, 2013 and 2012 have been $22.3 million, $48.8 million and $22.6 million, respectively, according to a bankruptcy declaration from interim CEO Todd E. Wilson."
“The company is and has been subject to risks and challenges associated with companies at a similar stage of development,” Wilson said in the declaration. “The mobile marketing and mobile advertising sectors are both highly competitive and fragmented, and the company has faced intense competition for revenue and margin from larger, more established companies.”
"In its batch of first-day motions, Hipcricket unveiled plans to hold an auction for substantially all of its assets — including intellectual property, accounts receivable and the bankruptcy estate’s avoidance action claims — in roughly 40 days if it receives bids to best the stalking horse offer."text-here[/tag]
Sadly, this company would appear to be no more than a 'dead man walking'
See this article for source of the quotations shown above:
http://www.law360.com/articles/613491/mobile-ad-co-hipcricket-hits-ch-11-plans-4-5m-sale
Old Chinese adage regarding the workings of a Chapter 11 Reorganization:
"Common get wiped in nearly all Chapter 11 Reorgs.
Once proud company now have only three chickens left.
First chicken go to secured creditors.
Second chicken left go to bondholders.
Last chicken left go to preferred stock holders.
No chicken left for holders of common.
All common go hungry and then die.
No one care.
Wise man go read-up on "waterfall distribution concept" applicable to Chapter 11."
There could not be a more APPROPRIATE name for this scam than that!
Meadow2009. YOU ARE A GEM!
The King of Saudi Arabia is now dead ... and with him, the continued good fortune of commercial airlines who relied on oil's plunging price. Suddenly now ... that price has ceased its relentless plunge ... and will, no doubt, rebound (i.e., back to $90 per barrel) in the next 90 to 120 days.
So then Southwest: "you had your chance". It was given to you on a silver platter (filled with low price oil). And yet you ignored it.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-oil-futures-surge-saudi-kings-death-003605056.html
"Long live the King" of OPEC.
I've given up on Southwest with respect to the likelihood of my making a significant 'quick buck' on its timely acquisition of a software-related company. If such an acquisition can't happen when oil is beneath $50 per brl, then it's not going to ever happen.
That being said, Southwest is still a very excellent investment for the long term ... and I wish them good fortune in that respect.
So I've stopped beating-up on them.
Be well Brother. And Happy Trading to you.
I'm back again. Suddenly "interested" again. Don't count this ticker out. I've re-read certain "exhibits" to the filings.
They seem to suggest that Global Convergence Solutions ("GCS") might STILL have an interest in this ticker. If you visit their website, the company seems to have gone oompletely silent regarding its future plans. That is so unlike its CEO, Neal Axelrad. So unlike hin indeed. And that it precisely why he (and his company) are once more "under my microscopoe".
SO STAY TUNED! I'll know much more when MKHD files its 2014 10K, as well as its first 10Q for 2015.
Question: How does one turn the "horror" of losing over 90% of your holdings in HRDN ... right before the Christmas holidays ... into sudden, new-found "love" for that ticker in the New Year?
Answer: to be a stupid prick ... all the New Year long.
Because, like Ebola, there is no known cure for being "STUPID".
Thank you for the member mark Greedy G ... but I must ask you to consider this important question: how on earth does one "deal" with over $10 MILLION of debt ... when one doesn't have so much as a DIME of revenue? The people who own that debt are former officers of HRDN ... and as such, they are NOT going away; but fully expect to be paid.
HOW DO YOU DO THAT ... while enticing rubes like me (and perhaps even you) to once more "invest" in this poisonous ticker?
Not to mention that 30 BILLION share gorilla that's sitting way up in the yard-arms of that barge: just waiting to jump onto the deck and eat everyone who remains alive. This isn't a Walt Disney movie my man. Many traders have lost their shirts (and blouses) to Captain Bob's evil scheme.
So ... again Greedy G ... HOW DO YOU DO THAT?
Yup: "The delays occurred Jan. 2, 2014, and Jan. 3, 2014, as Southwest experienced a malfunctioning of its crew scheduling system".
Wouldn't have happened if it had ACQUIRED a company (and its innovative "Crew Scheduling" SOFTWARE) like this one:
http://www.sabreairlinesolutions.com/images/uploads/Business_Intelligence_Profile.pdf
And there are one or two PRIVATELY-HELD companies with even BETTER "crew scheduling software".
QUESTION: When will Southwest acquire one of them?
The clock is still ticking ... as Southwest continues to lose at least 1% of its share value every other day.
Thank you. Rarely does one find an OTC ticker so terrible to "invest" in ... that such a summary is so easy to write about.
Surely, HRDN is one of those.
No. It's a stinking, plague-filled barge that's now drifting in the darkness of the OTC, without a captain or crew aboard. And if you are daring enough (or stupid enough) to go aboard and look around, you will suddenly discover that this barge contains a cargo of over $10 Million of debt and not a dime of revenue.
And if you go into the office of its former captain (who left with the last available life raft --- "damn the women and children and so-called "investors" who were aboard" and some, who are even STILL aboard, hiding in dank crevices, licking their financial wounds) you will find evidence that he (Captain Bob) increased the A/S to a mind-boggling 30 BILLION shares. It's kinda like a time-bomb he left. One that will surely detonate (at any given instant) in the foreseeable future and destroy all who then remain on board.
But after you discover all of the above ... you'll also suddenly discover that can't get your silly ass OFF the barge, as NO ONE will come to your assistance (with their bids) to save you.
So then ... DO have a care when you click that mouse and "go aboard".
'Cause yee will be signing-up to step upon the "Flying Dutchman" mate!
Get it DONE (Acquisition) ... or go home!
RED ALERT ... RED ALERT
"The Saudis Will Win The Price War, Oil To Rebound 50% By December: says recent report by Nomura Securities"
From: Barron's Asia - January 13, 2014, written by Shuli Ren:
"Nomura Securities is already calling the bottom and “the birth of a new oil bull market.” The bank forecasts that Brent crude will bottom at an average of $45 in Q1, recover to $55 in Q2, and go back to the long-term average of $80 by the end of this year.
The oil market is in real trouble if the bear is driven by weak demand, but fortunately, this one is just a temporary price war started by Saudi Arabia.
The force is still strong. “It is not demand weakness that triggered the oil price collapse. Global oil consumption is at a record high and there is only about 3% of spare global capacity as the era of easy oil is long gone,” according to analysts Gordon Kwan and Bob Chen. The recent oil price collapse was “deliberately triggered by Saudi Arabia” to slow down development in U.S. shale oil, Canadian oil sands and deep-water and Arctic drilling.
Just like in 1986, Saudi Arabia will win this price war again, because the Middle East has the lowest cost producers. The Middle East producers incur only $15-40 per barrel in costs when they drill, whereas “half of the world’s projects would not be economically attractive if oil prices remain below $50 per barrel.” Brent crude stays below $50 this week, recently trading at $47.87.
Already, we are seeing signs that Saudi Arabia is winning – U.S. oil producers are cutting back. Here are Nomura analysts:
Last week alone, US oil rig count plunged 61 units to 1,421 according to Baker Hughes stats. This is the biggest weekly decline since 1991.
Shell last week announced cutting hundreds of jobs at the firm’s massive Alberta oil sands project. We expect more large-scale layoffs to come. Similarly the oil companies’ contractors and service partners have also started to reduce headcounts. Halliburton and Hercules Offshore have already announced layoffs.
More than 40 companies have cut their 2015 spending budgets since December according to energy investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt.
Canada’s Suncor Energy (SU) is the latest to cut spending and jobs.
As such, Nomura sees oil prices recover by the end of this year and Brent crude goes back to $80 per barrel.
If you agree with Nomura’s thesis, the Chinese oil companies can be good investments then. Lower oil prices and less operating cash flow is forcing China’s big oil companies – PetroChina (0857.HK/PTR), Sinopec (386.HK/SNP) and CNOOC (0883.HK/CEO) – to prioritize profitability over growth. The Big Three all emphasized this point during Nomura’s recent oil and gas conference in Hong Kong.
In addition, with better balance sheets, the Big Three can go buy good-quality assets for cheap from distressed companies, a hypothesis echoed by Goldman Sachs yesterday.
Of the Big Three, Nomura likes PetroChina the most, because it is the most diversified. “Diminishing gas import losses from Turkmenistan and Myanmar, lower windfall taxes and increased shale gas subsidies to expedite development of the higher cost oil/gas fields” are potential catalysts for this stock. Nomura likes CNOOC the least because it is most exposed to the upstream drilling business. China Oilfield Services (2883.HK) would be the first to rebound in the oil field services sector, because it is larger cap and more liquid."
To Southwest: HELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! Get off your duff and use your recent share appreciation to ACQUIRE a stand-alone operating entity that will add value to your consolidated balance sheet. JUST DO IT ... because the 'good times' of 'cheap oil' won't last much longer!
It's a damned shame you know ...
That Southwest doesn't use a portion of its growing PILE of raw cash and short-term investments to ACQUIRE a company such as the one in the following link. The 'synergies' are readily apparent:
http://www.sabreairlinesolutions.com/images/uploads/Business_Intelligence_Profile.pdf
The only problem is that such a company (Sabre) has already been ACQUIRED ... by mighty Boeing Aerospace.
And in the meanwhile, Southwest's PPS appears to be experiencing a downward retrenchment of sorts. It's lost almost 9% of its value during the last 3 weeks and has punched beneath the psychologically important $40 price line for heaven's sake!
That loss in share value could have been spent to ACQUIRE some other 'synergistic' company like Sabre ... or maybe even better than Sabre.
But WHO?
Sabre Helps To Deliver Airline 2.0, Launches A Developer Platform
From a recent article in Forbes:
"Several years ago I undertook an extensive consulting arrangement in the airline and travel industry. The gig centered around looking at what the broader industry (airlines, their suppliers and their sales channel) could do to increase innovation and competitiveness. This is perhaps more important for the airline industry than other sectors – sky rocketing fuel costs, increased competition and a more discerning and demanding customer base all point to a need for a new approach towards the way airlines run – I like to call this concept Airline 2.0 and, to use a metaphor, it takes what Netflix or Uber have done to Blockbuster and cab companies respectively, and applies it to the broader airline industry.
Much of my work centered around empowering software developers to build new and creative solutions that would give airlines a competitive edge. Core airline systems still predominantly run on very old technology and hence don’t make it easy to build applications around them. I’m always amazed when flying that airline’s systems are so disconnected – the flight attendants have no overview of frequent flier data. Ticketing has no real connection to the in-air experience and every marketing initiative seems to be a completely siloed project. As I wrote when Virgin Airlines announced it was experimenting with Google glass:
This is exciting from a “wow, Google Glass is cool, Virgin Atlantic has always been cooler and now it’s even more so” perspective, but leaves so much value on the table. The real benefit to customers would be accrued if the core operating systems that airlines use (passenger manifests, frequent flier applications, promotional campaigns etc) were exposed via API and therefore able to be integrated with interesting applications.
So given all that, it was interesting to read some news recently from Sabre. Sabre is a company that focuses on delivering travel data to the industry. It powers the systems that many travel agencies use for example but it too was guilty of having a monolithic perspective to the way it delivers solutions. This appears to be changing with the announcement that the newly public listed company is creating a developer portal which gives third party developers access to some 150 Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), software hooks into core Sabre products.
The idea being that smart developers can use specific parts of Sabre data flows to create smart applications. And those data flows are significant, according to Sean Arena Chief Commercial Officer for Sabre, in the 1990s Sabre saw an average of 3,000 transactions per second using its data. Today that number has ballooned up to 99,000 transactions per second. All of that data is a fantastic opportunity for useful tools to be created – tools that personalize and contextualize the broader travel experience – buying, planning, searching. Many of these APIs are based around intelligent searching, allowing developers to build applications that offer far more refined and granular search options.
Of course the Sabre data only captures one part of the travel experience. Imagine this sort of intelligent searching alongside integrated data about an individual’s travel habits and history and integrated airline marketing initiatives. Sure giving me the best possible travel search result is useful, but it’s a prize also sought by others – Google GOOGL +0.84%, Expedia EXPE -0.19% and Travelport for example. Far more valuable would be a portal that not only offered these searching APIs, but also offered some airline-specific APIs as well.
There is huge necessity for the airline industry, a world of good examples to learn from and significant customer demand. Much of the travel experience today is broken (yes, flight service managers still carry a printed customer manifest list, printed on a dot matrix printer no less!) I’m hoping that the opportunities of airline 2.0 come sooner rather than later. Sabre’s developer portal is a good start, but it’s only a very small piece of the puzzle."
Thank yo8 hyperboy for your timely posting.
It's very important to fully understanding what's involved here. So much so, that the entirety of the article that you posted is set forth hereinbelow. The price of crude oil --- and therefore, Jet-A, commercial aviation fuel --- is a function of many factors, including: (1) U.S. domestic issues; (2) Middle East political issues; and (3) global military issues. Only a fool would attempt to assess the near-term price of oil without assessing these critical factors. As indicated in the article, Southwest has wisely managed to assess the interplay of factors that affect the price of oil ... HOWEVER, those "factors" are once again at flux ... and could spell only SHORT-TERM relief for Southwest and other airlines.
United Airlines dumps losing hedges, mulls new ones for long term
By Jeffrey Dastin
(Reuters) - United Airlines (UAL.N) has paid a premium to dump old losing bets on higher oil prices, and is reviewing its strategy for insulating itself from oil market volatility, in a sign of how some airlines' efforts to hedge their fuel costs have backfired.
The Chicago-based carrier reported Friday that it has shrunk its hedge position to cover 22 percent of the fuel it consumes in 2015, down from the 24 percent it had anticipated when oil prices were higher.
The airline said it did so at a cost, raising its average fuel expenses last quarter to $2.83 per gallon from up to $2.76 per gallon, the price it had estimated on Dec. 8.
This move represents just one step of a broader effort parent company United Continental Holdings Inc has taken to evaluate its fuel hedges, a United spokesman told Reuters.
At stake for United and its rivals are potentially billions of dollars in gains or losses that could flow from what amount to sophisticated bets on the future of oil and jet fuel prices. Guessing wrong could hurt profits and leave an airline vulnerable to competitive pressure from rivals that guess right, and have more cash to spend on new planes or better-appointed airport facilities.
Oil is the largest variable cost for airlines, often representing a third or more of their operating expenses. Plunging oil prices, down more than 55 percent since June, overall have buoyed airline profits and sent their shares soaring.
But the oil price drop caught many carriers off guard, as they had purchased financial instruments that protected against rising prices and that required them to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in collateral when prices fell.
United Airlines now must decide whether the cost of closing more of its existing hedges outweighs the risk of posting more collateral if prices continue to fall.
NEW HEDGES
Company officials have met to discuss whether United should unwind its hedges more than it announced Friday, the spokesman said.
They have also frequently discussed whether prices have bottomed out enough for them to make new hedges that could cover multiple years of fuel consumption, although they have yet to make any decisions and are keeping all options on the table.
A multi-year bet by Southwest Airlines Co (LUV.N) more than a decade ago protected the airline while oil costs for the industry soared.
"Southwest looked clairvoyant when they hedged at $30 (per barrel), and then the price shot up to $70 or $80," United's Chief Financial Officer John Rainey said in one section, reviewed by Reuters, of a recent memo to the carrier's pilots.
"We're mindful of this possibility and are closely evaluating our options."
Yet locking in prices long-term comes at a premium, with $50 call options nearly twice as expensive when they expire in Dec. 2017 than those that last until Dec. 2015, for example.
And losses from a bad bet would be significant, as a $1 change in the price of oil amounts to $100 million for United, according to the memo.
"It's prudent to be a little bit cautious here, and we'd like to see if there's a new trading band that forms," Rainey said.
(Reporting by Jeffrey Dastin and Catherine Ngai in New York. Editing by Joe White and Christian Plumb)
3 Reasons Why Southwest Airlines Still Has Room To Grow
From: Seeking Alpha - Jan. 10, 2015 6:11 AM ET
"Southwest Airlines was one of the top performing stocks of 2014.
With strong financials and a favorable economic climate, the company should be able to continue growing in 2015.
A capable and shareholder-friendly management team makes this company a good long-term buy and hold.
Introduction
Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) was one of the top performers of the S&P in 2014, posting a gain of 121%. With a tremendous run like that, many investors may feel that it is too late to buy the stock at its current levels. However, I believe that LUV is still a great company for long-term investors to buy and hold well into the future. Although the stock is unlikely to match its 2014 gains in 2015, I believe that it will outperform the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) both in 2015 and over the long term. LUV has many favorable headwinds going forward that will make this happen. First, the decrease in fuel prices will help LUV continue to deliver growth; both in 2015 and in the future. Second, the management team is committed to increasing shareholder value and has a plan to steadily increase growth into the future. Finally, the company boasts strong and favorable financials. As a note to readers, unless otherwise cited in the article, all information contained is being pulled from the Q3 press report, which can be accessed here.
A Favorable Economic Climate
It is no secret that the cost of oil is experiencing a rapid decline. Since jet fuel is a major expense throughout the industry, this decline in oil will help all airline companies improve operating margins and increase profits. Investors also need to remember that the drop in oil will help generate more revenue due to an increase in consumers electing to fly. Cheaper oil means cheaper flights, as well as more money in the pocket of consumers who drive gas vehicles on a regular basis. This has already become apparent in the November release of monthly flight data, which showed significant year over year improvements in load factor, revenue per passenger, revenue passenger miles, and enplaned passengers. Look for this improvement trend to continue with the December data release, which should be coming out soon. (Note: See here to access the definition of above terms as well as other airline industry terms.)
It should also be noted that LUV relies on futures contracts to purchase a significant percentage of its jet fuel. Management forecasted that about 20% of LUV's fuel for Q4 would come from such contracts, and the company owns a significant amount of these derivatives going out into 2018. Looking forward to the Q4 and annual earnings, I would like to see how much jet fuel the company has locked in at current prices for future years. I expect that management is guaranteeing itself significantly cheap oil well into the future, and this will help protect operating margins and sustain profits if the current oil decline is only a temporary situation.
Shareholder Friendly and Growth Driven
As apparent by its ticker, LUV puts its investors first. Through the first 9 months of 2014, the company repurchased $755 million. LUV still has $580 million remaining under its existing $1 billion share repurchase authorization. These share repurchases will help increase shareholder value even if the growth rate slows. Management has also reached an impressive return on invested capital of nearly 20% over the last 12 months, and if that continues then expect more share repurchases and dividend increases. Finally, LUV has maintained a dividend for 153 straight quarters. Although the yield is relatively miniscule, the commitment to the dividend and the low payout ratio gives investors an important margin of safety when purchasing LUV. Investors aren't the only ones who feel the LUV with this company though. Management has created a great business culture, and Glassdoor recently ranked Southwest #6 in the top companies for culture and value for 2014. Southwest is also famous as a consumer friendly company - cheap flights, bags fly free, and flight attendants that rap the pre-flight safety brief all create a fun and easy flying experience.
As an older, more mature company, LUV is unlikely to display explosive growth numbers in the future. However, it seems poised to maintain a steady pace of growth that will keep the stock moving upwards. Management has taken on a few initiatives to spur future growth. First, the company is in the midst of its Fleet Modernization. The CEO, Mr. Gary Kelly, gives an update on this process in his 2013 annual report to investors. Fleet Modernization will continue into the end of this decade, and will give LUV planes that are more fuel efficient with more seating. The end state will be an increase in profits from lower operating costs and more revenue passengers carried.
Fleet Modernization will also allow Southwest to expand its current service routes, and service more high demand locations with nonstop flights. This is a specific stated goal in the 2013 annual report, and we are already beginning to see this come to light. Seven new nonstop domestic flights have been announced and will start in June 2015. In the future, Hawaii and Alaska are expected to become offerings for Southwest customers. More interestingly, the Fleet Modernization will allow LUV to start expanding its international offerings, and we are seeing this begin as well. Starting in October, you will be able to fly Southwest to three destinations in Mexico, as well as to Costa Rica and Belize. By 2019, Mr. Kelly would like to have expanded into more markets throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and even into South America. These popular tourist destinations will provide growth for years to come.
The Financial Situation
The balance sheet at LUV looks very strong right now, and the company is well positioned to maintain its financial strength. As anyone who has followed the company knows, improvements to the operating margins have allowed the company to post an 80% gain in earnings per share year over year through the first 9 months of 2014. The recent quarter was a record in terms of profit. Modest revenue growth has also helped the company post these record profits. With the continuing decreases in jet fuel, there is a good chance that operating margins will continue to improve in 2015, and revenue should continue to show solid growth well into the future with management's plan to increase flight offerings and improve the fleet. Outside of the income statement, the balance sheet and cash flow at LUV look strong. According to Yahoo! Finance, LUV has $3.56 Billion in cash on hand, or approximately $5.25 per share. This cash per share increases the margin of safety for investors. Operating cash flow sits at $2.99 Billion for the trailing twelve months, and is steadily on the rise. The total debt on hand of approximately $2.77 Billion is a manageable number given the financial strength of the balance sheet and cash flow. Finally, investors should also note that 2013 was the 41st year in a row of profitability for the company; and barring a major unforeseen catastrophe for LUV 2014, will be year number 42. This is a phenomenal streak that should strike confidence in long-term investors."
JUST DO THE STUPID "ACQUISITION" ALREADY ...
WHILE YOUR SHARE PRICE IS STILL UP 123% OVER THE PREVIOUS YEAR!!!!
Shezzzzzzzzzz
HE WHO "HESITATES" IS FREQUENTLY A "LOSER"...
Yesterday, LUV lost 3% of its market capitalization ... a dollar amount which could have COMFORTABLY enabled it to ACQUIRE some other company, whose REVENUE STEAMS would have immensely added to LUV's consolidated balance sheet. And that acquisition could have been a virtually FREE one, to boot.
And yet ... it "hesitated" to do so.
Dear LUV executives: WAKE UP! wAKE UP! WAKE UP!
PLUMGING OIL PRCES WILL, EVENTUALLY, ARRIVE AT A BOTTOM!!!!!!!!!
The clock's ticking. OIL'S PRICE WILL REBOUND!
"Wall Street expects these oil stocks to soar up to 58% in 2015
Eight of 10 S&P 500 stocks with the highest price targets are energy companies
Bloomberg News/ndustries dropped 8% during the first two sessions of 2015, following a 23% decline last year. But most sell-side analysts have positive ratings on the contract driller’s stock, and the consensus price target implies 55% upside over the next year.
It’s always informative to see which stocks Wall Street loves the most at the beginning of a new year.
A review of the components of the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.89% shows that sell-side analysts expect large-cap oil producers and related companies will make steely investors a bundle of money.
Sterne Agee analyst Tim Rezvan on Friday said his company’s earnings estimates and price targets for oil exploration and production companies were based on a price range of $67 to $72 a barrel for Brent crude oil LCOH5, -1.29% which actually was trading at close to $53 on Tuesday.
But it is very difficult to predict when oil prices will bottom. One factor is that, despite the oversupply that is now obvious, U.S. production won’t decline immediately because long-term projects are already in place and OPEC has decided to defend its market share by keeping production high.
Rezvan said that unless OPEC changes its tune, the oversupply of crude oil “will persist until signs of U.S. production decreases become evident, which is unlikely to occur before mid-2015.”
But that’s only six months from now. It’s possible that the second half of this year will see a change in supply and demand, leading to some sort of recovery for oil, which would prop up oil stocks.
In mid-December, we published a list of nine oil stocks that could be excellent long-term plays for the eventual oil-market recovery, based on strong balance sheets and earnings track records. All but one of those nine stocks have risen since Dec. 15, with four seeing double-digit gains. That shows just how volatile the sector is, and also how quickly stocks can recover if the market stages a recovery."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-expects-these-oil-stocks-to-soar-up-to-58-in-2015-2015-01-06
An acquisition by LUV this year ... or bust
"Sign of a top for airlines? New airlines ETF in the works"
"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Southwest LUV, performed best among all S&P 500 stocks in 2014, and airline stocks overall fared well, helped by factors such as falling fuel prices and industry consolidation. Traders didn't have an airlines ETF offering them a way to bet on this tricky industry, but now one with the ticker "JETS" is in the works, according to a regulatory filing.
U.S. Global Investors will serve as the adviser for the U.S. Global Jets ETF, which is expected to track an index that includes 25 to 40 airlines and have an expense ratio of 0.6%. Prior airline ETFs with the tickers FAA and FLYX shut down after they didn't attract much money. Some investors longed for an airlines ETF in 2014, but Murphy's Law tells us that "by the time another one rolls around, the industry will start faltering," wrote Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas in a blog post in July. ETF Trends first reported on the filing for JETS."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sign-of-a-top-for-airlines-new-airlines-etf-in-the-works-2015-01-05
Deutsche Bank Sees Clear Skies For Airlines In 2015
“Deutsche Bank issued an update on the airline industry. Analysts led by Michael Linenberg commented that as “the industry closes its books on a year which is expected to result in a record profit, we see 2015 shaping up to be an even stronger year and believe that airlines will continue to share their growing wealth with their stakeholders.
“Lower fuel prices, reduced interest expense via balance sheet deleveraging and modest non-fuel cost increases are contributors to our 2015 forecast whereas PRASM is expected to be a modest drag.
“Investors may balk at that dynamic initially, but given the potential upside to earnings as well as the industry's stated pro-shareholder intentions, we remain positive on the sector.”
Linenberg raised the “2015 net profit forecast for the industry from $12.4 billion to $16.5 billion predicated on a lower fuel price, lower interest expense and modest non-fuel cost increases.
We are projecting a 0.5 percent decline in PRASM entirely due to international markets. Underlying our forecast is a 14.6 percent operating margin and a 13.3 percent pretax margin which are, respectively, 3.7 percentage points and 4.0 points higher than a year ago.”
The firm’s most favored names were:
United Continental Holdings Inc
Southwest Airlines Co
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
American Airlines Group Inc
JetBlue Airways Corporation “
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/14/12/5082007/deutsche-bank-sees-clear-skies-for-airlines-in-2015#ixzz3O4eefaDp
How Record-Low Oil Prices Benefit The Airline Industry
"Oil prices have been falling since the summer, having widespread effects on everything from gas prices to geo-political tensions across Europe and the Middle East.
A barrel of oil is now less than $50, while it was topping $100 just months ago in July.
Airlines have been reaping the benefits of dropping oil prices, as jet fuel is by far the largest airline expense. The International Air Transport Association estimates that airlines will collectively profit nearly $20 billion for 2014 and $25 billion in 2015.
In light of this news, analyst Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank released a report on December 15 rating nine airline companies. Linenberg noted, “Thus far in 2014, US airline stocks are the best performing sector among the 98 Dow Jones US total market industry groups.”
Linenberg noted that some of his favorite stocks include United Continental Holdings Inc UAL Southwest Airlines Co LUV and Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL. Linenberg has a 63 percent overall success rate recommending stocks with an average return of +29 percent per recommendation.
Linenberg reiterated a Buy rating for United Continental and raised his price target from $50 to $80. He noted, “United is in the process of implementing a cost savings program and network restructuring which should lead to a narrowing of the profitability gap between the carrier and its legacy peers.”
Linenberg has rated United Continental five times since October 2012, earning him a 60 percent success rate, recommending the stock with a +24.7 percent average return per United Continental recommendation.
Additionally, Linenberg reiterated a Buy rating for Southwest and increased his price target from $46 to $55. The analyst noted, “Southwest should continue to benefit from its technology investments which allow for better revenue management.”
Linenberg has rated the airline company seven times since October 2012, earning him an 83 percent success rate recommending Southwest with a +67.3 percent average return per recommendation.
Linenberg also reiterated a Buy rating for Delta but did not provide a price target. He noted, “Delta led the charge among its US peers several years ago when it announced what at the time seemed like a heroic plan to reduce its net debt from $17 billion at year end 2009 to $10 billion by year end 2012… The company expects to end 2014 with $7.2 billion in net debt.
"Going forward, its investments in other airlines, the continuation of its domestic re-fleeting, and its new fare structure should continue to drive profitability higher.”
Linenberg has rated Delta Airlines 11 times since July 2013, earning a 91 percent success rate recommending the stock with an average return of +53.7 percent per Delta recommendation.
However, amongst all the Buy ratings, Linenberg reiterated a Sell rating on Alaska Air Group, Inc. with a price target of $53, up from $42.50. The analyst has rated Alaska Air eight times since June 2012. However, he only has a 33 percent success rate recommending the stock with a negative average return of -12 percent per recommendation.
Overall, Linenberg seems very optimistic about his airline projections. He increased 2015 estimates, raising his airline net profit forecast from $12.4 billion to $16.5 billion thanks to “lower fuel price, lower interest expense and modest non-fuel cost increases.” Linenberg added, “We see 2015 shaping up to be an even stronger year and believe that airlines will continue to share their growing wealth with their stakeholders.”
Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/14/12/5088763/how-record-low-oil-prices-benefit-the-airline-industry#ixzz3O4ezhe8I
You'll do well to remember this guy:
https://www.linkedin.com/pub/alonzo-howell/75/106/104
LUV you, dude.
Happy New Year!
NEW MODERATORS ... NEW IBOX INTRO!!!
LUV you dude.
Happy New Year!
LUV you dude!
Happy New Year!
And to you as well.
Look ... I meant you no disrespect ... and I apologize for calling your chart "silly".
It's just that the likelihood of an acquisition taking place does not appear on ANY chart. It only appears in due diligence.
good luck to you ... and a very prosperous New Year.
Yes ... I see the silly chart.
What does "five airlines" have to do with an acquisition ... by only one of them: Southwest Airlines?
I'm not interested in the other 4 ... or for that matter, the other 400.
I'm ONLY interested in the subject matter of this board: Southwest.
What's your question? What does LUV being "4th" have to do with an acquisition by it?
A truism of today's commercial aviation industry:
"GO BIG ... OR GO HOME"
We saw it happen to American (who bankrupted itself by not doing so; and then saved itself ... by DOING so) ...
and now ... we're still in the CONTEXT of seeing that very same truism play itself out at Southwest.
LUV's New Year's Resolution:
To purchase a 'modest' fleet of AirBus 380A wide-bodies.
Look out European destinations ... 'cause here we come!
LUV purchased innovative IT software that gives it the option of switching to the spot-oil market for Jet-A fuel. This was in place as early as 2010 ... which is (coincidentally) when its share price began its upward climb.
Here are several links:
Read the "forward" of this book (“Looking Beyond the Runway – Airlines Innovating with Best Practices while Facing Realities")
regarding the implimentation of IT solutions to problems that bedeviled the commercial aviation industry ... THAT WAS WRITTEN BY THE IT FOLKS AT LUV.
http://www.ashgate.com/isbn/9781409400998
That forward to the book was written by none other than Mr. Bob Jordan, the Executive Vice President for Strategy and Planning at Southwes (and that's got the real-time, spot-price of "OIL" written all over it; no?).
And check out the references to these other officers of LUV:
Adam Decaire, Senior Director of Network Planning:
https://www.linkedin.com/pub/adam-decaire/a/4b5/563
John Jamotta, Senior V.P. of Network Planning
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/southwest-airlines-names-new-vice-president-of-network-planning-110397049.html
Lee Lipton, Director of Strategic Planning
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2009/09/southwest-airlines-to-europe-s.html/
and Peter McGlade, Senior Strategic Advisor
https://www.linkedin.com/pub/peter-mcglade/20/377/932
I'm here to ascertain the likelihood of whether or not an important acquisition will take place in the very near term. And to that end, I've done a fair amount of due diligence. I'd sincerely appreciate the comments of anyone ... WHO HAS TAKEN THE TIME TO DO THE SAME.